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Chokes McGee posted:
He is trying to say that slavery is bad and gay marriage is bad. People who say gay marriage "doesn't impact you" are just like slavery apologists who said you don't have to own a slave. They are both evil institutions that shouldn't exist at all.
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Aug 10, 2016 16:00
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Gonna just say I think people are giving up on FL-Sen way too quickly. (Assuming Murphy's the candidate)
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Aug 10, 2016 17:56
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Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me.
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Aug 10, 2016 18:34
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sharkbomb posted:Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me. It is disappointing, but Toomey keeps his head down. He votes hard Right, but he only really promotes his "bipartisan" votes. Same thing with the Dem Senators from Indiana and North Dakota. They vote much differently from the state, but they keep quiet and promote their votes for local issues and veterans. A good chunk of people vote based on perceptions of the candidates. Toomey can vote almost the same as Ted Cruz, but he isn't high profile in his assholishness, so people think he is "better."
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Aug 10, 2016 18:36
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sharkbomb posted:Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me. R senators are running about 8 points ahead of Trump right now.
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Aug 10, 2016 19:46
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I'm hoping Toomey gets wiped out by depressed Republican turnout. Honestly, not that enthused by McGinty... just kind of mehhh generic D candidate.
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Aug 10, 2016 19:59
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sharkbomb posted:Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me. The republicans in the burbs are breaking away from Trump hard, but Toomey has done a good job of not pissing off many moderates.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:00
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i bolded the slave thing but it is kind of unfair, he's clearly not condoning slavery. but politics is all about being unfair so i assume he'll be misquoted in an ad and people will laugh at him. we'll see how he is as a candidate, and angie craig tooDivineCoffeeBinge posted:He also wants (wanted?) baseball to return to Montreal, though I have no idea how Vermont is supposed to make that happen. i would vote for this
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Aug 10, 2016 22:54
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Cook moved the MN2 race from toss up to lean dem because, as the thread has noted, Jason Lewis is a nutjob and National Dems love Angie Craig. http://cookpolitical.com/story/9828 "House Republicans are happy that Speaker Paul Ryan won his Wisconsin primary with 84 percent of the vote, but Democrats are thrilled by last night's primary results next door in Minnesota. As expected, talk radio host Jason Lewis won the GOP primary in retiring Rep. John Kline's 2nd CD, and his long history of provocative statements make Democratic healthcare executive Angie Craig a slight favorite to flip a key swing seat." Paper With Lines has issued a correction as of 03:58 on Aug 11, 2016 |
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Aug 11, 2016 03:54
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At this point I think that all the ratings agencies are being really bullish on down ballot Republicans. Indiana's senate seat should be Likely D. NH, PA lean D. What a loving catastrophe Trump has been. I mean I knew he was never going to win but I didn't think it would get too much worse than being a McCainesque also ran.
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Aug 11, 2016 04:31
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Cliff Racer posted:At this point I think that all the ratings agencies are being really bullish on down ballot Republicans. Indiana's senate seat should be Likely D. NH, PA lean D. What a loving catastrophe Trump has been. I mean I knew he was never going to win but I didn't think it would get too much worse than being a McCainesque also ran. I'd agree about IN and NH, but I'd leave PA as a tossup for now.
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Aug 11, 2016 04:59
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McGuinty's going to keep her head down and get loads of cash from womens' groups to air commercials with (or just have them do the commercials) and squeak over the line with super-depressed turnout. It won't be anywhere near the blow-out win Hillary is going to have but it will be enough.
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Aug 11, 2016 05:51
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Why would McGinty have depressed turnout if Clinton has a blowout? That reasoning makes no sense
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Aug 11, 2016 11:33
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sharkbomb posted:Why would McGinty have depressed turnout if Clinton has a blowout? That reasoning makes no sense Cliff Racer is saying Toomey is going to have depressed turnout, which is what will give McGinty the edge.
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Aug 11, 2016 13:12
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sharkbomb posted:Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me. My belief, though I haven't seen any polling that would back this up, is that the difference is republicans who have no intention of voting for Trump but still obviously like Toomey, and the question is if those people vote while still hating Trump. I don't think they do, unless they're affirmatively voting for Clinton.
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Aug 11, 2016 13:21
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There is also an incumbency bonus, that is something people talk less about these days but its hasn't gone away or anything. Specter won on the back of split tickets for a number of years and even Santorum managed to beat Huffel(?) in 2000. Likewise, despite only being on the ballot on presidential years, Republicans only ever managed to lose AG once since it became an elected position in 1980. I don't think it will be enough though.
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Aug 11, 2016 13:28
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Gyges posted:Cliff Racer is saying Toomey is going to have depressed turnout, which is what will give McGinty the edge. Ah, I see, I misread.
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Aug 11, 2016 13:34
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evilweasel posted:My belief, though I haven't seen any polling that would back this up, is that the difference is republicans who have no intention of voting for Trump but still obviously like Toomey, and the question is if those people vote while still hating Trump. I don't think they do, unless they're affirmatively voting for Clinton. Probably the near-suburban republican types that would have probably gone for any other GOP headliner.
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Aug 11, 2016 14:02
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Im trying to vote upballot, but there is a waterfall soon after my vote, that will promptly destroy it in the oceans of stupidity. Anyone got metaphorical tips, or maybe an allegorical Tool to preserve my vote in a hypothetical "lock box" to preserve it down the downballot?
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Aug 11, 2016 16:50
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this ad is 🔥 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNk-cTbipkg makes john mccain look really bad, and also completely innocently and incidentally reminds republican voters ahead of the august 30th primary that trump said mccain should be defeated
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Aug 11, 2016 17:17
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PPP has the FL-Sen at: 42 Rubio (R) 40 Murphy (D) Closer than most polls have had it. Hopefully it is the start of a trend.
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Aug 11, 2016 17:47
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Pinterest Mom posted:this ad is 🔥 Owns. It would be funnier if he lost in the primary though, but the few polls I've seen suggest that is unlikely.
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Aug 11, 2016 22:30
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Chokes McGee posted:
It could easily be a quote from an LF posting superstar, but other than that...
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Aug 12, 2016 00:38
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Well in theory, if someone wanted to sign themselves into slavery, like say as part of a fetish or something, that would be morally acceptable to people who believe in free will. The only questions would be what to do with the children, who didn't make that choice and how to prove that the person isn't being coerced into becoming a slave. Oooooooh, ooooooh, oooooooh or what if their child is dying of cancer and they need a lot of money real bad. They could sell themselves into slavery to raise that money! Or sell their organs, that too!
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Aug 12, 2016 01:10
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Trump effect? Local unpopularity? Probably both. https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/764123036043706368
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Aug 12, 2016 16:40
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Joementum posted:Trump effect? Local unpopularity? Probably both. Now that's some good poo poo! PA: RCP has McGinty (D) at +2.6 over Toomey (R) with lots of recent polling. Clinton is +9 over Trump in PA so I think McGinty will outperform those numbers if you ran the election today because of depressed R turnout. This Hot Take is based solely on gut instict and wishful thinking Was the NC senate race ever considered a close race previously? I haven't been hearing much about it.
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Aug 12, 2016 17:00
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sharkbomb posted:Now that's some good poo poo! NC was ranked "lean Republican" so this is pretty big. http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings
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Aug 12, 2016 17:42
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lol this is like a total reversal of fortunes... thank you trump. thank you so much
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Aug 12, 2016 17:45
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But if Burr goes, who will drive around Washington in a dangerously dilapidated shitbox??
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Aug 12, 2016 17:53
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still plenty of time for the presidential polling to get less lopsided, but if there's a huge wave like some have been predicting since trump first came into the scene, this is what the beginnings would look like. i don't think current polling would win the Senate, though. we'll see burr had been talked about as a long shot target for a year or two, his approval ratings have always been oddly low, mostly because even for a backbencher he's unusually unknown by his voters, but i think the dkes of the world were thinking he'd outrun the top of his ticket and it'd be a non story. well all of a sudden nc is looking kinda blue, and that didn't put him anywhere good the pa polls are really starting to move towards the presidential margin, i wonder if Murphy will see a similar effect vis a vis Rubio? maybe it'll have to wait until after the primary, maybe rubios strong enough to beat this thing. can't wait to see how McCain does in the primaries and where polling goes. Ohio looks like candidate quality might get the gop over the hump, but plenty of good candidates lose wave elections so we'll see. and then there's bayh, basically openly lying about his extremely recent lobbyist past and telling Indiana he'll basically vote like a Republican. he looks pretty strong right now. when I see stuff against grassley it always seems like partisan catnip most voters won't care about, but i guess we gotta keep an eye on those polls in the event that Trump's surprisingly competitive numbers there ever drop. somewhat similarly, Nevada, where heck is a good candidate apparently and trump is doing mildly ok. interesting Senate races, yes, interesting indeed oh yeah and is mcauliffe gonna resign to give northam some incumbency and maybe get himself appointed t Kaine's seat? only matters if Hillary wins obviously so i guess we won't see this shoe drop for a while meanwhile the house is the house, a few steps forward for Democrats in the primaries and a step or two back, still looking like they'd need the kind of wave that leaves driftwood in its wake, candidates of low quality who are sitting ducks for the midterm. if the Democrats somehow get the house those people would be reluctant to ram progressive as gently caress legislation through, because they're going to pretend to believe they can get reelected and because they're likely to be personally moderate, or else they wouldn't have an electoral base in a district that voted for Romney
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Aug 12, 2016 20:36
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My worry is that if it looks too bad for too many races too soon, some enterprising low level Republicans may feel the risk of getting caught burning boxes of ballots, metaphorically or literally, would be worth it when the alternative is instant irrelevance because they got chained to an insane orange man
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Aug 12, 2016 20:42
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There's already been reports of big GOP donors shifting their focus to downticket races, so these next few weeks should be interesting.
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Aug 12, 2016 21:41
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oystertoadfish posted:still plenty of time for the presidential polling to get less lopsided, but if there's a huge wave like some have been predicting since trump first came into the scene, this is what the beginnings would look like. i don't think current polling would win the Senate, though. we'll see oystertoadfish posted:oh yeah and is mcauliffe gonna resign to give northam some incumbency and maybe get himself appointed t Kaine's seat? only matters if Hillary wins obviously so i guess we won't see this shoe drop for a while oystertoadfish posted:meanwhile the house is the house, a few steps forward for Democrats in the primaries and a step or two back, still looking like they'd need the kind of wave that leaves driftwood in its wake, candidates of low quality who are sitting ducks for the midterm. if the Democrats somehow get the house those people would be reluctant to ram progressive as gently caress legislation through, because they're going to pretend to believe they can get reelected and because they're likely to be personally moderate, or else they wouldn't have an electoral base in a district that voted for Romney thethreeman has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Aug 13, 2016 |
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Aug 13, 2016 01:04
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Franco Potente posted:But if Burr goes, who will drive around Washington in a dangerously dilapidated shitbox?? I assume Tim Kaine drives a '88 Voyager.
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Aug 13, 2016 01:33
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Well we obviously aren't at the point where the house flips yet, but in both 2010 and 2014 there were lots of nay sayers looking at the maps, the incumbent's service records and even the polls and pooh-poohing the possibilities. It could get a lot worse for Republicans than it currently is.
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Aug 13, 2016 07:02
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thethreeman posted:a poll just came out with her up 13 while Trump is collapsing there. Just anecdotes, but I still get the sense Trump could call for an ISIS invasion of the US and rpublicans would keep the house that's an interesting poll, maybe she's finally going to start winning elections like an incumbent's supposed to. i only know of her for stuff like using inefficient direct mail fundraising that costs almost as much as it raises (direct-mail people like robert viguerie are one of the creepier parts of the gop http://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-long-con) and, until this poll, weak numbers. that'll be an interesting district to follow apparently rcp has been too lazy to update their 2016 generic congressional vote tracker since may but here's the polling averages for the last few house elections: 2006 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html 2008 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2008_generic_congressional_vote-2173.html 2010 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html 2012 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_generic_congressional_vote-3525.html 2014 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html a consistent long-term lead in 2008 (8-10 points), the same for '06 but we only have the last 2 months of the race (+15), an inexorably growing lead in 2010 (tied in june to +9 in november), a sudden sharp gain in september in 2014 (gop went from -1 late august to +4 mid-september), and basically a consistent tie in 2012. who knows what this year looks like - the example of 2014 leaves open the possibility of a sudden sharp change, which happened in september then but really could happen any time, you'd think sam wang thinks the democrats currently lead by less than they usually did in 2008:  perhaps we've already had a spike. i think this jpg will update as time goes on oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 16:29 on Aug 13, 2016 |
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Aug 13, 2016 16:25
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Franco Potente posted:But if Burr goes, who will drive around Washington in a dangerously dilapidated shitbox?? Oh poo poo is it Burr who drives around in a Thing? I saw one on the road in Chesapeake a week or two ago, I wonder if Burr was making a day trip to Hampton Roads.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:57
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I was checking out the Hawaii primary information, since that's today, and noticed that there is going to be a special election on November 8 to fill Mark Takai's seat for the remainder of the term. That is: from November 9, 2016 to January 3, 2017. You have until August 25th to file!
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Aug 13, 2016 21:36
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Joementum posted:I was checking out the Hawaii primary information, since that's today, and noticed that there is going to be a special election on November 8 to fill Mark Takai's seat for the remainder of the term. That is: from November 9, 2016 to January 3, 2017. i'm in
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Aug 13, 2016 22:24
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Those special elections are actually pretty useful for the winner (who typically also wins the regular 2 year term as well) as it allows them to get in seniority over all of the people who begin their terms with the new congress.
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Aug 13, 2016 22:30
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