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Forever_Peace posted:Amazon has a new show much like Hard Knocks, and it followed Arizona all through last season and preseason. Last year would have been Nuk, and the year before Julio so......
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Aug 12, 2016 18:29
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Honore_De_Balzac posted:Last year would have been Nuk, and the year before Julio so...... DJ 1.01!
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Aug 12, 2016 18:34
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I'm the 4th pick in Yahoo standard scoring 14 person league 1 PPR and I think I'm pretty much stuck to Nuk.
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Aug 12, 2016 18:51
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Doltos posted:I'm the 4th pick in Yahoo standard scoring 14 person league 1 PPR and I think I'm pretty much stuck to Nuk. There is always a chance one of the top 3 receivers drops, but I wouldn't be discouraged if I got Nuk in 1PPR.
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Aug 12, 2016 19:04
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Ok drafting at 6.12, I have the following options at RB: Jonathan Stewart Jeremy Hill Frank Gore Arian Foster At this point in the draft I have Cam, AB84, Alshon Jeffrey, Doug Martin, and Dion Lewis. I feel like Stewart is the safest pick, good floor, low ceiling though. Hill has decent upside but is in a timeshare with Bernard. Gore doesn't really have competition but is old. Arian Foster has the highest upside but is a glass sculpture. At this point, I should probably be taking a bit more risk, so Hill or Foster, with the edge to Hill?
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Aug 12, 2016 19:08
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MrSargent posted:Ok drafting at 6.12, I have the following options at RB: I assume this is 0 PPR, so Jeremy Hill
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Aug 12, 2016 19:26
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Sorry, I am drafting in full PPR since you need a Pro Account to do Half PPR.
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Aug 12, 2016 19:30
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Probably Jonathan Stewart then
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Aug 12, 2016 19:37
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MrSargent posted:There is always a chance one of the top 3 receivers drops, but I wouldn't be discouraged if I got Nuk in 1PPR. Yeah there's a chance the third picker is going Gurley.
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Aug 12, 2016 19:40
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Abdullah not there? Then probably Foster for me in full ppr. Stewart is the safer pick, but in full ppr, it just doesn't make sense to draft 2 down guys for your depth. You want guys like Bilal or Sims for the floor picks because of the 3-4 target starting point. Nearly every other pick should really be for upside if your starters are relatively safe. In any case, with that lineup, I'd feel good shooting for the moon with this pick.
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Aug 12, 2016 19:46
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I love DJ, but I feel like this happens every year. Don't draft an unproven RB in the first. Do we learn nothing? Zeke is even crazier. It reminds me of the year Ryan Mathews was going top 3 until he broke himself in preseason. Rookie Ryan Mathews was a pretty high pick too, and that ended poorly to the surprise of no one.
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Aug 12, 2016 19:56
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Tyrod Taylor signed a huge extension. Not a big deal for redraft, but for dynasty it makes me feel much better about him, Watkins, and the Bills offense in general.
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Aug 12, 2016 20:25
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If anyone actually watched DJ last year, aside from him getting dinged a few times the man runs like a loving animal. He's not really unproven in terms of ability. Like, how are giving DJ an unproven tag and not Gurley? I'd be absolutely fine with either of them in PPR or Standard. The red flag is Arians is a retard with his RBs. But they need to protect Palmer and just like the cowboys, there's probably plenty of touches to go around.
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Aug 12, 2016 20:29
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LmaoTheKid posted:If anyone actually watched DJ last year, aside from him getting dinged a few times the man runs like a loving animal. He's not really unproven in terms of ability. Like, how are giving DJ an unproven tag and not Gurley? It really isn't mysterious. You assume you have been able to accurately judge his ability from a small sample size, when that is a risky thing to do. Adrian Peterson has proven his ability, while David Johnson has not to the same degree. Here's Forever_Peace nerding out about sample sizes, talking specifically about how much data you need to statistically pick a better runner reliably. For example, he shows that if you're comparing subsets of runs made by Trent Richardson and Marshawn Lynch in their careers, you need ~130 runs from each before Lynch has a better ypc than Richardson 95% of the time. I'm going to install F_P's apps real fast and add in some more hard facts, specifically comparing DJ to others...
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Aug 12, 2016 20:50
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Forever_Peace posted:Abdullah not there? Then probably Foster for me in full ppr. Stewart is the safer pick, but in full ppr, it just doesn't make sense to draft 2 down guys for your depth. You want guys like Bilal or Sims for the floor picks because of the 3-4 target starting point. Nearly every other pick should really be for upside if your starters are relatively safe. Abdullah is there, he was just a bit further down in terms of ADP. I like taking a risk here so Abdullah or Foster might be a good bet.
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Aug 12, 2016 20:58
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RVProfootballer posted:It really isn't mysterious. You assume you have been able to accurately judge his ability from a small sample size, when that is a risky thing to do. Adrian Peterson has proven his ability, while David Johnson has not to the same degree. Here's Forever_Peace nerding out about sample sizes, talking specifically about how much data you need to statistically pick a better runner reliably. For example, he shows that if you're comparing subsets of runs made by Trent Richardson and Marshawn Lynch in their careers, you need ~130 runs from each before Lynch has a better ypc than Richardson 95% of the time. Hold up, are you telling me Lynch was better than TRich???  I still think its hilarious how people are ignoring Gurley has a pretty small sample size too.
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Aug 12, 2016 21:11
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LmaoTheKid posted:Hold up, are you telling me Lynch was better than TRich??? Gurley has close to twice the carries of DJ, but yeah, he does also have a fairly small sample size. And the point was you'd need half a season worth of carries before you could really really confidently say Lynch was better than Richardson, which is probably far more than many think you would need. Anyway, I played around with F_P's app. This simulates pulling 125 samples (with replacement) from each guy's career carries, seeing who has the better ypc in that sample size, and then doing it 10,000 times. It basically asks "if you saw 125 random carries from these two RBs, how confident would you be that one has a better ypc than the other?" AP, Jamaal Charles, CJA, Rawls, Gurley, Spencer Ware, and Karlos Williams are all better than DJ Lamar Miller like exactly even to DJ Lacy, Martin, Bell, Andre Ellington, Marshawn Lynch, and Melvin Gordon are all worse than DJ So I think I'm actually revising my opinion of DJ up a bit. Some of the guys that showed better than him definitely have some risks that he doesn't (e.g., Rawls' injury and competition), or share some of the same risks (small sample size). But you can see some of the issue with small sample sizes with Ware and Karlos Williams decisively beating DJ, too, and keep in mind that it's much easier to sustain a crazy high ypc over a smaller number of carries (i.e., at least part of why DJ beats Lacy, Martin, Lynch, and Bell in this measure, though some of it might certainly be sustainable real ability too!). sourdough fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Aug 12, 2016 |
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Aug 12, 2016 21:40
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RVProfootballer posted:Gurley has close to twice the carries of DJ, but yeah, he does also have a fairly small sample size. And the point was you'd need half a season worth of carries before you could really really confidently say Lynch was better than Richardson, which is probably far more than many think you would need. Thank you for this, reinforces my opinion about not taking DJ in the first round.
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Aug 12, 2016 21:44
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DJ was a third-round pick out of piddly-poo poo Northern Iowa, of course he's more unproven than noted Georgia Man and Heisman Contender Before His Knee Exploded Todd Gurley.
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Aug 12, 2016 21:45
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What about DJ in the 13th as a keeper? Asking for a friend  
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Aug 12, 2016 21:47
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Benne posted:DJ was a third-round pick out of piddly-poo poo Northern Iowa, of course he's more unknown than noted Georgia Man and Heisman Contender Before His Knee Exploded Todd Gurley. Lol if you don't keep up with football magnet northern iowa
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Aug 12, 2016 21:48
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RVProfootballer posted:Gurley has close to twice the carries of DJ, but yeah, he does also have a fairly small sample size. And the point was you'd need half a season worth of carries before you could really really confidently say Lynch was better than Richardson, which is probably far more than many think you would need. This is really interesting, but isn't there a problem in that some of those guys don't have much more than 125 total carries to choose from? I feel like running a simulator this way is super interesting for career numbers of established players, but isn't that useful in predicting new players. Am I wrong?
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Aug 12, 2016 21:52
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SouthShoreSamurai posted:This is really interesting, but isn't there a problem in that some of those guys don't have much more than 125 total carries to choose from? It's extrapolating what data we do have for each of them up (or subsampling down) to whatever sample size you want. I chose 125 because that's what DJ actually has, but there wasn't really any super strong reason to do that. I could've chosen 250, and it would've been asking "if DJ replicated exactly the distribution of runs that he's made up to now for another 125 carries, how confident would we be in his ypc being better than [x]?" But yeah, Ware and Karlos Williams have 75 and 93 career carries, and career ypc of ~5.6. Most would agree it's silly to expect them to maintain that level of production, possibly even just up to 125 or 150 carries, but this analysis is assuming they do. I don't think it's really a problem, but you definitely should keep in mind the danger in extrapolating from a small sample size. For example, I don't think anyone would take DJ ahead of a healthy, non-suspended Bell, despite this analysis suggesting DJ has a decent chance of being a better pure runner from what we've seen of him so far. The results must be tempered by the sample size still, at least how I'm interpreting it; Miller essentially being equal to DJ in terms of predicted ypc with 638 career carries vs 125 is really impressive, and shouldn't be ignored. Edit: Also since I forgot to add this caveat: this is purely running stats, and completely ignores catching. That obviously bumps up DJ, Bell, Charles, etc., compared to Martin, AP, etc. sourdough fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Aug 12, 2016 |
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Aug 12, 2016 22:11
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I got it now. It clicked in my brain. 
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Aug 12, 2016 22:18
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I never saw DeAndre Hopkins refered to as Nuk until this past month. I was looking back at the past couple of years of drafts in the league I keep posting about. I'm 11th pick out of 12th. I totally forgot....that 3 QBs tend to go in the 1st round. The guys that draft them are all...ahead of me. If DeAndre Hop...I mean, Nuk falls to me in the 11th...oh boy oh boy.
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Aug 12, 2016 22:58
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He has been referred to as nuk since Clemson so...
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Aug 12, 2016 23:05
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Metapod posted:He has been referred to as nuk since Clemson so... Even further http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/texans-wr-deandre-hopkins-got-his-nickname-from-a-pacifier/
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Aug 12, 2016 23:16
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Nuk is also a bad nickname because nuke has an e and Nuk looks like Nuck
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Aug 12, 2016 23:24
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Aw drat, good to see folks using the apps.SouthShoreSamurai posted:This is really interesting, but isn't there a problem in that some of those guys don't have much more than 125 total carries to choose from? Yeah I mostly used the simulations to show how silly it is for fantasy writers to make the big proclamations about week-by-week yards per carry totals. There, we're generally working with really, really small samples. But in general, the question of what to do when you have small samples for players is a good one. One potential solution I'm hoping to explore is the "Bayesian" method. If a player made it onto an NFL roster, it's not really true that we know nothing about them. We know that they are probably at least a replacement-level player. So we know that it's pretty unlikely that, for example, they would lose yards on every single play. This existing belief is called the "prior" - a way of statistically declaring what we believe about a player before even collecting any data on them at all. One of things I'm hoping to do for chapter 6 is to empirically derive how much emphasis we might want to put on the relative importance of the prior (i.e. the belief that the player isn't going to produce crazy, bizarre numbers) versus a player's actual production (which is going to be really unstable at low sample sizes, but gradually increase to be more representative, like you can see in chapter 4) if we want to predict that player's other carries. One thing I like about this approach is that is also naturally builds in some measure of regression to the mean, which is more pronounced at small sample sizes than at large sample sizes.
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Aug 13, 2016 00:33
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What app?
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Aug 13, 2016 00:52
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:What app? These ones. Instructions are at the bottom of this page.
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Aug 13, 2016 01:42
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One more call - join in on the 3rd inaugural $50 buy in fantasy football league I am running again. We only have 3 more spots open. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3786119 Details: 9/1 draft at 6:30PM PST, snake, order posted once 12 people have paid using a RNG 12 teams, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 flex, no kicker with 20 total spots. PPR, 6 points per passing TD ESPN, Leaguesafe. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Aug 13, 2016 |
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Aug 13, 2016 03:50
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Anybody found a good mock auction site for larger leagues(14+)? Yahoo does, but they don't offer flex like literally every league I'm in this year
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Aug 14, 2016 00:13
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Is there a source for good free data for fantasy football (or just the regular underlying data about yards/TDs/etc)? I'm thinking about trying to develop my own projections for the first time and other analyses. I"d be looking for weekly yards/TDs/other relevant stuff such as fumbles or interceptions for 5-10 years.
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Aug 14, 2016 03:21
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Its Miller Time posted:Is there a source for good free data for fantasy football (or just the regular underlying data about yards/TDs/etc)? I'm thinking about trying to develop my own projections for the first time and other analyses. I"d be looking for weekly yards/TDs/other relevant stuff such as fumbles or interceptions for 5-10 years. Your best bet is probably nfldb if you aren't averse to using python. Works great and updated in close to real time. I wrote a script for Hockles to use in 1kyob this year and he did great with it despite having never used python before. I link to it in OP of Ground Control (or home of website). After that, probably pro football reference? Think they have options to download data as csv.
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Aug 14, 2016 04:06
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Stop me if you've heard this one before: Christine Michael is being criminally underdrafted right now.Rotoworld posted:Coach Pete Carroll stated after Saturday's preseason opener that the Seahawks' backfield will be a "one-two punch."
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Aug 14, 2016 08:11
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Not falling for it. Rawls, baby. Crossing my fingers for Nuk Nuk Nuk to fall to me tomorrow!
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Aug 14, 2016 08:32
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I will say I don't buy into the "1-2 punch" headline. That's Rawls' backfield if he's healthy. But I do buy into the stories that Michael did finally realize he was on the edge of flunking out of the NFL and got his poo poo together since re-signing with the Seahawks. Beat writers talked about him showing more maturity this offseason and taking on a real leadership role in RB meetings. It's clear he's their #2 and that ought to make him a high-value backup but he's not even considered in drafts right now until the very end. Any kind of setback for Rawls and Michael will produce.
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Aug 14, 2016 08:55
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Hes now Christine Michael Sr get it right. A matured family man. Baby boy Christine Jr.
Green Gloves fucked around with this message at 11:02 on Aug 14, 2016 |
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Aug 14, 2016 10:59
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Worth mentioning that CMike does, in fact, look pretty good in the stuff I've been doing with Ground Control. But running has never really been his issue. Also: preseason CMike y'all. Ground Control sleepers Kerwynn Williams and Mike Gillislee also had good showings. Worth monitoring in dynasty (probably minimal redraft value this year). Zach Zenner really looked like a Ahahahahaha I can't somebody help me I have a problem
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Aug 14, 2016 15:30
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