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I realized that my favorite part of this election is going to be election night, where the eastern seaboard will likely doom trump, and he will get on television and start talking about how he's still gonna win because he's gonna take California. It'll be Rove 2.0
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Aug 13, 2016 15:26
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Kulkasha posted:The Republicans needed to hook into the Latino vote this election, and it warms my cold cold heart that Trump has potentially sabotaged that possibility for generations of voters. BLM's ten-point program is actually really reasonable and straightforward and would make a big difference. https://politicalmurder.com/2015/08/21/black-lives-matter-offers-10-point-plan-to-curb-police-killing/
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Aug 13, 2016 15:28
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:BLM's ten-point program is actually really reasonable and straightforward and would make a big difference. https://politicalmurder.com/2015/08/21/black-lives-matter-offers-10-point-plan-to-curb-police-killing/ quote:Community oversight. This calls for an all-civilian oversight structure with discipline power that includes a Police Commission and Civilian Complaints Office. Both offices would have specific responsibilities and across-the-board power.
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Aug 13, 2016 15:29
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Petr posted:Well, considering that I think almost all "populist" politicians are actually cynical opportunists, the danger would be using language that the left has been yearning to hear for years from their candidates to mask self-interest at the cost of the interests of real leftist causes. Populism is a problem when it fucks over minorities to make the majority feel good. It's a problem because it's racist. The Democratic party is so electorally beholden to minorities that that kind of populism could never take hold. The "worst" they could do is... probably Bernie Sanders. Who was actually good. Maybe if you're pro globalization a populist left is scary? Or am I failing to imagine some sort of terrible consequences? "Leftist" populism is cropping up in Europe with the premise of "welfare for whites," but that's impossible in the Democratic party here where you need the black vote to get through the primaries. If we see that kind of populism here, it will have to emerge from the rotting corpse of a dead Republican party.
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Aug 13, 2016 15:32
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What if there was a federal mandate that call cops must be residents of their patrol area. Like, if you live in Ward 1 of Chicago you can be a cop in ward 1 of Chicago. Obviously you can leave for things like bank robberies and poo poo but you don't patrol ward 2 if you live in ward 1. It might help some
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Aug 13, 2016 15:45
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The GOP can't win national elections while courting white racists, but they're addicted to those votes so they can't bring themselves to renounce them, especially since that tactic does still work in many state and local elections. They sold their souls to the Dixiecrat devil and Donald is his collection agent.
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Aug 13, 2016 15:45
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Arrgytehpirate posted:What if there was a federal mandate that call cops must be residents of their patrol area. Like, if you live in Ward 1 of Chicago you can be a cop in ward 1 of Chicago. Obviously you can leave for things like bank robberies and poo poo but you don't patrol ward 2 if you live in ward 1. It might help some been tried, doesn't work, the cops all start living in one area of the district or whatever iirc
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Aug 13, 2016 15:48
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Josef bugman posted:Don't. You think Trump is bad? At least you guys have a chance to make a better country. Ours is just filled to the brim with dying people who vote tory because "well I don't like immigrants!" See thats the thing that bums me out about Europe. Like say what you will about our Republicans/Trump, but they are losing. That party loses votes with every election cycle, because its base is dying off rapidly. And the younger generations are largely proLeft. Within the next 20-30 years, they'll be forced to moderate just to remain a competitive party. Meanwhile in Europe you have the return of facshist parties. The far right is getting stronger with every election. And even young people in Europe seem to be profar Right. It's basically the guarenteed future for the continent, entirely because "ahhh immigrants!!".
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Aug 13, 2016 15:50
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vyelkin posted:The Senate is inherently gerrymandered in favour of small lovely states that no one cares about. I mean, I get what you're saying, but feel compelled to point out that at least one US Senate representative from Montana has been a Democrat for literally over 100 years, and even accounting for the change in party politics in that time that's not a bad streak for a rural Western state. Yeah it's a right-leaning state, but has more of a mixed history than one would think; Presidential election wise it's been pretty drat red, no question.
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Aug 13, 2016 15:50
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Thaddius the Large posted:I mean, I get what you're saying, but feel compelled to point out that at least one US Senate representative from Montana has been a Democrat for literally over 100 years, and even accounting for the change in party politics in that time that's not a bad streak for a rural Western state. Yeah it's a right-leaning state, but has more of a mixed history than one would think; Presidential election wise it's been pretty drat red, no question. Counter-point: for at least 30 years, that Senator was Max Baucus. (Counter-counter-point: you guys did have Burton Wheeler and Jim Murray. I even like Jon Tester, gun stance notwithstanding. You're okay with me, MT.  )
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Aug 13, 2016 15:53
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:BLM's ten-point program is actually really reasonable and straightforward and would make a big difference. https://politicalmurder.com/2015/08/21/black-lives-matter-offers-10-point-plan-to-curb-police-killing/ All of these points make sense, but they all can be subverted/not enforced if the state government has no interest in doing so, see Ohio, Michigan, etc. Hence, Federal oversight.
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Aug 13, 2016 15:57
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I'm with her http://i.imgur.com/CMsVBpW.gifv e: the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoXDe8HxHBA TeenageArchipelago fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Aug 13, 2016 |
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Aug 13, 2016 15:59
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Franco Potente posted:Counter-point: for at least 30 years, that Senator was Max Baucus. Heh, yeah, that's a very fair point, I did gloss over just how right leaning those democrats were. Definitely not full blown socialists or anything, but I'm just glad there's a strong enough element in Montana to have any leftward officials at all. And truthfully I don't know much about the state's political history, I would assume it's a mix of the hippies in Missoula and remnants of the mining industry Union sentiments that led to the Democrats having some power there, but I may well be extremely wrong on this.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:00
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Bushiz posted:I realized that my favorite part of this election is going to be election night, where the eastern seaboard will likely doom trump, and he will get on television and start talking about how he's still gonna win because he's gonna take California. It'll be Rove 2.0 Three hours of Fox News trying to pretend that trump didn't lose at 7pm EST is going to be great. The local theater (which serves beer and food) usually has a results watching event and it was amazing enough with Romney.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:03
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Aug 13, 2016 16:10
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Thaddius the Large posted:Heh, yeah, that's a very fair point, I did gloss over just how right leaning those democrats were. Definitely not full blown socialists or anything, but I'm just glad there's a strong enough element in Montana to have any leftward officials at all. And truthfully I don't know much about the state's political history, I would assume it's a mix of the hippies in Missoula and remnants of the mining industry Union sentiments that led to the Democrats having some power there, but I may well be extremely wrong on this. I've always thought that most of the democrats that get elected in Montana is from the Republican candidate being unusually terrible that year. Also this state is mostly rural and outside of Missoula and Butte, all the other large cities pull strongly R. Then again, this state put in a medical marijuana law a few years ago, and the repealed it because as it turned out, people liked getting high. This upset our statewide pastime of drunk driving.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:15
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emdash posted:been tried, doesn't work, the cops all start living in one area of the district or whatever iirc Still sounds like an improvement over them living in a distant suburb.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:15
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Zwabu posted:Why would Assange hold back now if his goal was to keep Clinton from the Presidency or help Trump in? Trump's ship is sinking and he's clinging to the little bit of mast that's still above water. If it's a classic October surprise, the idea is you release a damning story at the last minute before response narrative s can adjust and people can put the news in proportion. For example, release a story based on forged documents a few days before the election so people don't have time to analyze the forgeries.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:16
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Business Gorillas posted:Remember itt we had people wanting the TPP so they could have cheaper poo poo and their response to "well what about the people who receive the hard end of globalization?" was a combination of "better luck next time", "who cares", and ignoring them entirely. This is such a fundamental misunderstanding of the pro-TPP position that I have to imagine you just plugged your ears and closed your eyes any time anyone brought it up or you're being just straight willfully disingenuous and ignorant. Either way, stop. Boon fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Aug 13, 2016 |
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Aug 13, 2016 16:17
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If it's a classic October surprise, the idea is you release a damning story at the last minute before response narrative s can adjust and people can put the news in proportion. The problem with Assange is you're /immediately/ going to hear things about him "Trying to influence the election as an outsider", and "Russia must have provided it!" And the last time someone tried to forge something, namely medical records, the account got laughed off of twitter.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:19
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If it's a classic October surprise, the idea is you release a damning story at the last minute before response narrative s can adjust and people can put the news in proportion. If you're planning an October Surprise, though, why announce it two months in advance?
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Aug 13, 2016 16:21
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DaveWoo posted:If you're planning an October Surprise, though, why announce it two months in advance? That's his whole point, you don't talk about what you have in reserve unless you don't actually have much if anything at all Christ what is up with the reading comprehension in this thread lately
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Aug 13, 2016 16:24
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/764460613271707648
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Aug 13, 2016 16:33
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Well who could have anticipated.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:35
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Ooph. That's gotta sting.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:36
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-to-be-working/ Who knew that treating people who are homeless like actual humans who want jobs may actually work.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:36
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The best part of that article is when he straight up says "yeah this won't eliminate panhandling altogether but that's not the point", having realistic goals for your plans is crucial to making sure that they're successful long term
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Aug 13, 2016 16:39
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How do you mange to always do the exact wrong thing each time? Even if he just picked randomly, sheer probability would land him right at some point. iospace posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-to-be-working/ But leeches and welfare queens!! In all honesty, I really hope other Republicans learn something from this. Though I could easily see the program being terribly abused.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:40
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iospace posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-to-be-working/ People are going to take this guy and pretend he's representative of the whole Republican Party.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:42
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Also the whole, "this is to humanize these people and get them back into participating in society" means the program is much less likely to devolve into rounding up all the homeless people and putting them into work camps or something
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Aug 13, 2016 16:42
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Gimnbo posted:People are going to take this guy and pretend he's representative of the whole Republican Party. Surely this one news story will make people forget about the wall.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:44
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Geostomp posted:How do you mange to always do the exact wrong thing each time? Even if he just picked randomly, sheer probability would land him right at some point. To be honest I'm surprised this reaction wasn't more obvious in advance. You'd think with conventional wisdom that turnout is depressed by the idea that your candidature is losing, someone would have caught on. The more time passes, the more convinced I am that Trump is some sort of machine designed to win Republican primaries and literally nothing else.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:45
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 I hope the downticket folks get destroyed
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Aug 13, 2016 16:46
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Gimnbo posted:People are going to take this guy and pretend he's representative of the whole Republican Party. If Republicans decide that their response to poverty is going to be hiring homeless people for public works, infrastructure repair, and city beautification, I'm cool with that. They'll officially have one non-repugnant thing on their platform. Who are we kidding though, they'll get primaried in any actual red state/city in favor of "gently caress the poors." This dude can only pull this off because he's the first R to get elected to his office in a blue city since the last big realignment.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:46
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Shifty Pony posted:
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Aug 13, 2016 16:47
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If it's a classic October surprise, the idea is you release a damning story at the last minute before response narrative s can adjust and people can put the news in proportion. Yeah but if your guy is down fifteen there's no guarantee it would make up necessary ground, whereas it could have had a much greater impact say a week ago when he was at "behind after conventions" status and had not yet slid into "hideous dumpster fire" yet. The overall state of the race matters too unless the damaging material is of the "immediately puts you in jail" type.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:48
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What's worrying about that, if true, is it means these voters really do think the elections are rigged. Nothing good comes from that long-term.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:53
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Zwabu posted:Yeah but if your guy is down fifteen there's no guarantee it would make up necessary ground, whereas it could have had a much greater impact say a week ago when he was at "behind after conventions" status and had not yet slid into "hideous dumpster fire" yet. The overall state of the race matters too unless the damaging material is of the "immediately puts you in jail" type. For example, the Bush drunk driving conviction reveal. Thing is though sometimes you're just losing and timing doesn't matter. But the Bush drunk driving reveal probably made more difference released when it was than if it had been released earlier -- it just wasn't enough to matter either way.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:54
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If it's a classic October surprise, the idea is you release a damning story at the last minute before response narrative s can adjust and people can put the news in proportion. Thing is, the news cycle is so fast and you can crowdsource that kind of poo poo now. It's entirely possible doing this style of October surprise just isn't possible any longer. October surprises are overrated anyway. Pundits look back at something that happened post facto and decide that oh yes that was the October surprise.
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Aug 13, 2016 16:58
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Jimbozig posted:Huh?? Not directly relevant, but the actual Clinton-DNC argument is really interesting because it hasn't really been resolved, although it's been a bit sublimated. The way Hillary picks up GOP votes is by casting Trump as outside the normal/establishment GOP and thus OK not to vote for. But the only way Congressional challengers like the guy in my district win is by surgically attaching their (completely establishment) opponent to Donald Trump. So you've got sort of a weird dynamic in play. It's like a case study for how campaigns nominally on the same side can have very different goals and messaging needs.
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