USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!: May 31, 2006

Fangz posted:

Not to defend the other guy, but I'd agree that there's substantial foreign interests tying the US to the Middle East and thus to the efforts of the Daesh and the Taliban, beyond the possibility of terror attacks in the US itself. Destabilization of the supply of oil from the middle east, the suez canal, the rise of opium farming in Afghanistan, the refugee crisis possibly destablising Turkey and Europe, the India-Pakistan nuclear standoff. All of this means that geopolitically the US really does not want the Daesh to win.

Definitely. Still kinda hard to ignore that the reason Daesh exists is we spent ten years killing every Sunni who failed Donald Rumsfeld's How Not To Be Seen, all in the name of keeping the Iron Roses of the world in a happy post-goatherd-execution glow.

Sure, we gotta handle them now, but they and the Taliban are both exhibit A as far as the US being its own worst enemy in the middle east. Not a coincidence most of their guns and trucks have Made in the USA stamped on them.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:38

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# ? May 26, 2024 18:34

Killer-of-Lawyers: Apr 22, 2008; THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020

Physicall security on the device itself is kinda moot anyways. If someone has acess to the device its game over even if you put a lot of locks on it. So I side with the airforce on that one for balking at it.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:40

Crows Turn Off: Jan 7, 2008

zoux posted:

Ruh roh

https://mobile.twitter.com/ppppolls/status/765570042658512897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The other figures from this poll posted in other threads are incredible.

Slate Action posted:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/765570854868647936

Slate Action posted:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/765570553046589440

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:40

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Right, but you weren't going to see it outside Chaucer or Shakespeare -- it wasn't a modern insult.

I think it's gained prevalence because people are realizing you can't call people homosexual slurs, and you can't use gendered slurs, so they want another insult that means "sexually passive". Plus it has a racial connotation in pornography but isn't explicitly racist. It's a win win all around.

Actually, calling Louis XVI a cucko1d was a big thing in revolutionary France. The visual shorthand in political cartoons back then was to draw the person with horns or antlers on their head.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:41

Tom Guycot: Oct 15, 2008; Chief of Governors

ReidRansom posted:

Of course the other 25% is almost 100% Trump, with a smattering of Johnsons.

Oh I think you'll find Trump support has more than a smattering, a majority even, of johnsons among its ranks.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:43

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

And holy poo poo those Texas poll numbers. Clinton won't win the state this time around barring a miracle, but it could really help her run up the popular vote score. Going from R+16 to R+6 in 4 years is nuts.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:45

AlouetteNR: Jun 6, 2011

My Imaginary GF posted:

ISIS is an idea, like the nazis and vietcong were manifestations of inappropriate ideas. You cannot defeat an idea with limited strikes attempting to minimize casualties amongst a host population.

Overaggressive occupation turns today's civilians into tomorrows insurgents. Limiting military action limits pushback, cutting off the flow of people willing to join ISIS. Hence them having manpower issues, calling on more attacks by radicalized Westerners, getting pushed around in Syria, essentially losing on all fronts and desperately lashing out how they can.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:45

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

quote:

A Democratic victory in Texas this year remains a stretch but within the numbers there are signs of Democrats being positioned to become seriously competitive there in the years ahead. Trump's lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors. With voters under 65, Clinton leads him 49-45. And when you look just specifically at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive.

A big piece of that generational change is the increasing racial diversity of the electorate in Texas. Trump has a 69/25 lead with white voters but the reason the state's so competitive overall is that among non-white voters Clinton has a 73-21 lead, including a 68-27 edge with the state's booming Hispanic population.

2024 is gonna be amaaaaaazing.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:46

Sulphagnist: Oct 10, 2006; WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Texas is 38 EV (and it'll be more after the next census). It's not just the ballgame if it flips, if it flips there no longer is a ballgame.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:47

Luigi Thirty: Apr 30, 2006; Emergency confection port.

Dexo posted:

2024 is gonna be amaaaaaazing.

Too bad global warming will have turned Texas into a wasteland and we'll all be dead from preventable diseases/in debtor's prison.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:47

ReidRansom: Oct 25, 2004

Trump is a uniquely bad candidate and that's really helping pad those numbers, but by 2024 a lot of that 65+ vote that's going hard Trump will die, and that alone could represent a pretty big shift, according to those numbers. Especially with the continuing de-whitening of the state.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:49

Ash1138: Sep 29, 2001; Get up, chief. We're just gettin' started.

Luigi Thirty posted:

Too bad global warming will have turned Texas into a wasteland and we'll all be dead from preventable diseases/in debtor's prison.

And forget about getting to the polls when all the roads have been turned to gravel to save money.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:51

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Luigi Thirty posted:

Too bad global warming will have turned Texas into a wasteland and we'll all be dead from preventable diseases/in debtor's prison.

Hopefully Trump will be generous with his Trump branded Water.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:53

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Almost all of those undecideds in the Texas poll are going Trump. He's underperforming, but Clinton can't win Texas with 38% of the vote unless America really starts to Feel The Johnson.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:54

Mahoning: Feb 3, 2007

ReidRansom posted:

Trump is a uniquely bad candidate and that's really helping pad those numbers, but by 2024 a lot of that 65+ vote that's going hard Trump will die, and that alone could represent a pretty big shift, according to those numbers. Especially with the continuing de-whitening of the state.

Yeah by 2024 the Republicans will be making the exact opposite argument they're currently making and will want to expand early voting and anything that will help the diaper-making GBS threads baby boomers vote for them.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:54

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

AlouetteNR posted:

Overaggressive occupation turns today's civilians into tomorrows insurgents. Limiting military action limits pushback, cutting off the flow of people willing to join ISIS. Hence them having manpower issues, calling on more attacks by radicalized Westerners, getting pushed around in Syria, essentially losing on all fronts and desperately lashing out how they can.

Did the Soviet occupation of the nazis create nazis, or did it kill all the radical germanics? There is no blowback when the population understands that with human rights come human responsibilities, such as death to nazis.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 16:54

Fangz: Jul 5, 2007; Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

My Imaginary GF posted:

Did the Soviet occupation of the nazis create nazis, or did it kill all the radical germanics? There is no blowback when the population understands that with human rights come human responsibilities, such as death to nazis.

Neo-nazism is pretty alive and well today in areas formerly occupied by the Soviets, so um, what the heck are you on about?

Fangz fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Aug 16, 2016

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:00

AlouetteNR: Jun 6, 2011

My Imaginary GF posted:

Did the Soviet occupation of the nazis create nazis, or did it kill all the radical germanics? There is no blowback when the population understands that with human rights come human responsibilities, such as death to nazis.

It killed them all and prevented the creation of more through an intensive occupation that dwindled, but continued on throughout the Cold War. Are you suggesting the creation of an American Syria satellite state, and dedicating the resources necessary to maintain that position, the same way the Soviets did with East Germany?

e. Also, what Fangz said. That is fascinating, I had no idea that the new far-right in Germany fell along such strong east-west lines. Is that from a paper or book or something? I'd love to read it.

AlouetteNR fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Aug 16, 2016

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:01

AMorePerfctGoonion: Aug 11, 2016; by exmarx

sean10mm posted:

Actually, calling Louis XVI a cucko1d was a big thing in revolutionary France. The visual shorthand in political cartoons back then was to draw the person with horns or antlers on their head.

From which we get the "sign of the horns" as used by heavy metal fans

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:02

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

AlouetteNR posted:

It killed them all and prevented the creation of more through an intensive occupation that dwindled, but continued on throughout the Cold War. Are you suggesting the creation of an American Syria satellite state, and dedicating the resources necessary to maintain that position, the same way the Soviets did with East Germany?

I'm suggesting the way to kill ISIS as an idea is to treat 'em like the Soviets handled the Germans circa '44-'48.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:06

Dick Trauma: Nov 30, 2007; God damn it, you've got to be kind.

sean10mm posted:

Actually, calling Louis XVI a cucko1d was a big thing in revolutionary France. The visual shorthand in political cartoons back then was to draw the person with horns or antlers on their head.

Prior to this year the only time I'd heard the word in the last 30 years was in an MC Paul Barman song. I was baffled to see it popping up so often and being used so incorrectly.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:07

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!: May 31, 2006

Fangz posted:

Neo-nazism is pretty alive and well today in areas formerly occupied by the Soviets, so um, what the heck are you on about?

You're making the critical mistake of 1. engaging with MIGF 2. using geopolitical reality to do so rather than Tom Clancy fanfiction.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:08

emdash: Oct 19, 2003; and?

https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/765516938919317504

been waiting for something like this to turn up

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:09

MariusLecter: Sep 5, 2009; NI MUERTE NI MIEDO

Tulsa man killed by neighbor who called him 'dirty Arab'

quote:

What makes the Jabara case stand out is authorities had several opportunities to intervene, but appeared to have bungled, the family believes.

...

The Jabara family moved into their Tulsa home 12 years ago. A few years later, Stanley Majors moved into the house next door.
The harassment and intimidation began almost immediately -- although the family can't point to a particular reason why.
"He'd call us names all the time. 'You dirty Arabs, get out of here,'" the mother, Haifa Jabara, told CNN.
"I had a guy who mowed our lawn, he's black. He'd scream, 'You N-word, get out of here."
Neighbors lodged several complaints with police against Majors over his behavior.
And in 2013, the family filed a protective order, which forbade Majors from having any contact with the Jabaras.
It didn't make a difference.
"Every time I came outside at night, he'd scream and yell at me. Scared me to death," Jabara said.

....

In 2015, Haifa Jabra says she was taking a walk in the neighborhood when Majors ran her over with his car.
"He came from the back and hit me hard," she said. "I fell on the floor, bloody, bleeding from my head. A lady was passing by, called 911 and rescued me," she said.
She spent weeks in the hospital with a broken shoulder, collapsed lung and fractured ribs, among other injuries.
Police charged Majors with felony assault. Initially, he was held in custody without bond. But three months ago, a judge allowed his release until his trial in March 2017.

...

Family begged for protection
The family feared the harassment would just escalate.
On Friday, the night of his murder, Khalid Jabara called police to report his neighbor had a gun.
Officers arrived on scene but they couldn't go inside Major's home to check, so they left, said police spokeswoman Ashley Leland.
About 10 minutes after officers left, Majors shot Khalid Jabara, police said. The victim died at a hospital.
He will be buried Friday.
After the shooting, officers found Majors hiding behind a tree at a library.
He was charged with first-degree murder. And this time, he's being held without bail.

2nd Amendment people solving problems.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:10

smg77: Apr 27, 2007

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/765578837509955584
I seriously hope they feed him a bunch of BS just to see how fast he leaks it at a rally.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:10

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Dick Trauma posted:

Prior to this year the only time I'd heard the word in the last 30 years was in an MC Paul Barman song. I was baffled to see it popping up so often and being used so incorrectly.

That map has less to do with how the Soviets handled nazis and more to do with the shitshow that was the russkie "economy." What I see is a map of concentrated poverty in Germany, at a time when 'foreigner' still meant high socioeconomic status due to Germany still having a border and passports meaning something.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:12

Cthulhumatic: May 21, 2007; Not dreaming...just turned off.

smg77 posted:

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/765578837509955584
I seriously hope they feed him a bunch of BS just to see how fast he leaks it at a rally.

"We've been dealing with heavy insurgent activity around Agrabah, countering with Operation GENIE."

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:20

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

A few choice results from that PPP Texas poll have been posted but the press release warrants being read in full:

quote:

PPP's new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, and less than half a percent (0) for Evan McMullin. In a head to head contest Trump leads Clinton 50-44 in the state, which Mitt Romney won by 16 points in 2012.

A Democratic victory in Texas this year remains a stretch but within the numbers there are signs of Democrats being positioned to become seriously competitive there in the years ahead. Trump's lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors. With voters under 65, Clinton leads him 49-45. And when you look just specifically at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive.

A big piece of that generational change is the increasing racial diversity of the electorate in Texas. Trump has a 69/25 lead with white voters but the reason the state's so competitive overall is that among non-white voters Clinton has a 73-21 lead, including a 68-27 edge with the state's booming Hispanic population.

Clinton's unpopular in Texas, as you would expect, with a 36/59 favorability rating. But Trump's not a whole lot better off with only 40% of voters seeing him favorably to 53% with a negative opinion. The tax return issue continues to plague Trump with 64% of voters thinking he needs to release his returns to only 25% who don't think it's necessary for him to. Even Trump's supporters, by a 43/41 spread, think he should release them. Another issue that has the potential to cause Trump problems down the road is if he refuses to participate in the debates as scheduled. 77% of voters think he needs to do that to only 14% who don't think he needs to and among his own supporters there's an even stronger sentiment- 82/12- that Trump needs to participate. If Trump is stubborn about that it could cause the bottom to fall out on his support even further.

We continue to find that Trump voters overwhelmingly buy into his preemptive claims about the election being rigged. Just 19% of Trump voters grant that if Clinton wins the election it will be because she got more votes, while 71% say that it will just be because the election was rigged. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN, which hasn't existed in years, will steal the election for Clinton to only 20% who don't think it will, and only 20% who are unsure. Some things Trump says are a step too far even for his support base though. We find that 'just' 35% of Trump supporters think Barack Obama founded ISIS, to 48% who don't think he's responsible for that.

Finally we polled on Texas secession. Overall 26% of voters would support leaving the United States to 59% who want to stay, and 15% who aren't sure either way. Among Trump voters support for secession goes up to 37%, with only 49% opposed to exiting. If you look at the Presidential race in Texas only among voters who are opposed to seceding from the United State, Clinton leads Trump 54/41. But that's offset by Trump's 72/20 advantage with the secession crowd. If Clinton is elected President this fall, the Trump voters really want out- in that case 61% say they'd support seceding from the United States, to only 29% who would stick around.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/trump-leads-by-only-6-in-texas.html

Some other good results from the full poll:

quote:

Q6 Who would you rather was President: Barack Obama or Donald Trump?
Barack Obama 46% ................................................
Donald Trump 48% .................................................
Not sure 6%

quote:

Q9 Would you support or oppose Texas seceding from the United States?
Would support 26% .................................................
Would oppose 59% .................................................
Not sure 15% ..........................................................

Q10 Would you support or oppose Texas seceding from the United States if Hillary Clinton is elected President?
Would support 40% .................................................
Would oppose 48% .................................................
Not sure 12%

For me though, the biggest thing is that Clinton/Trump have single digit support from people who voted for the candidate of the opposite party in 2012. Romney voters, for the most part, are Trump voters and Obama voters are Clinton voters. Even the people who either voted for someone else or don't remember how they voted in 2012 are breaking for Trump overall. To be fair, there are also more Romney voters who are undecided or currently leaning third-party whereas Obama fans are locked in for Clinton (in the four-way question Clinton gets 85% of Obama voters while Trump gets 78% of Romney voters; in the two-way Clinton gets 92% of Obama voters while Trump gets 85% of Romney voters).

To me that speaks to Texas already undergoing huge demographic change that's affecting the election results. There isn't a huge shift of Romney voters towards Clinton to explain a 10-point difference from 2012 although there is a bit of a shift away from Trump, it's probably that there are fewer Romney voters alive today than there were in 2012.

Also women break for Clinton. If the election was held only among women, Clinton would win 43/41 in a four-way and 49/46 in a two-way. Women also prefer Obama to Trump by 50/45. He's entirely propped up by strong support among men and seniors.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:22

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Not yet mentionned about that PPP Texas poll: they did a hypothetical Trump vs. Obama matchup, which Nd up as just 48-46 for Trump.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:21

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/politics/donald-trump-roger-ailes.html

quote:

Mr. Ailes is aiding Mr. Trump’s team as it turns its attention to the first debate with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, on Sept. 26 on Long Island, according to three people briefed on the move, who insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter.

Two of them said that Mr. Ailes’s role could extend beyond the debates, which Mr. Trump’s advisers see as crucial to vaulting him back into strong contention for the presidency after a series of self-inflicted wounds that have eroded his standing in public opinion polls.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:22

fishmech: Jul 16, 2006; by VideoGames; Salad Prong

Phone posted:

the nuclear passcode is the letter 'a'

It's actually "Radical Islamic Terrorism".

:v:

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:26

smg77: Apr 27, 2007

Dexo posted:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/politics/donald-trump-roger-ailes.html

Every time I think Trump has hit rock bottom he finds new ways to be deplorable. And it's only August...

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:26

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

vyelkin posted:

For me though, the biggest thing is that Clinton/Trump have single digit support from people who voted for the candidate of the opposite party in 2012. Romney voters, for the most part, are Trump voters and Obama voters are Clinton voters. Even the people who either voted for someone else or don't remember how they voted in 2012 are breaking for Trump overall. To be fair, there are also more Romney voters who are undecided or currently leaning third-party whereas Obama fans are locked in for Clinton (in the four-way question Clinton gets 85% of Obama voters while Trump gets 78% of Romney voters; in the two-way Clinton gets 92% of Obama voters while Trump gets 85% of Romney voters).

No poo poo, sherlock. America is a hyper-partisan nation and elections are all about that base, 'bout that base, no crossover.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:28

AlouetteNR: Jun 6, 2011

My Imaginary GF posted:

That map has less to do with how the Soviets handled nazis and more to do with the shitshow that was the russkie "economy." What I see is a map of concentrated poverty in Germany, at a time when 'foreigner' still meant high socioeconomic status due to Germany still having a border and passports meaning something.

Even if this is true, what you are suggesting is still an incredibly costly occupation, lasting years to decades, in possibly the most politically hostile area of the world, with very little actual benefit to 'American interests' (slightly more secure airbases and slightly cheaper gas, I guess?), and with the responsibility of re-building the infrastructure destroyed by ISIS and civil war.

This is just occupation and nation-building again, so in addition to not being particularly beneficial, there's no reason why it would be any more popular under Clinton than it was under Bush. Why do you think this is even a remotely good idea?

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:29

PhazonLink: Jul 17, 2010

smg77 posted:

Every time I think Trump has hit rock bottom he finds new ways to be deplorable. And it's only August...

and now Ailes getting touchy with Trump's wife and/or daughter is in the cards.

and so is Trump proving/disproving his comment on getting away with BLANK.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:29

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Dick Trauma posted:

Prior to this year the only time I'd heard the word in the last 30 years was in an MC Paul Barman song. I was baffled to see it popping up so often and being used so incorrectly.

You see it a lot in period historical fiction too (Aubrey / Maturin, etc) though it's a little saucy for Austen. I can't think of an example of it in Dickens, probably for the same reason (too racy) but I could be wrong there.

Regardless though it hasn't been in current usage for a least a hundred years. But now it isn't homophobic and it isn't gendered so it's filling the gap left by dropping those insults.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:28

Doctor Butts: May 21, 2002

smg77 posted:

Every time I think Trump has hit rock bottom he finds new ways to be deplorable. And it's only August...

The more rats trapped on a sinking ship, the better.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:29

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

Fangz posted:

Neo-nazism is pretty alive and well today in areas formerly occupied by the Soviets, so um, what the heck are you on about?

I assume this is similar to how fascism is popular in countries that used to be in the East Bloc as a reaction to hating Communists and embracing Nationalism

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:30

ex post facho: Oct 25, 2007

Luigi Thirty posted:

Too bad global warming will have turned Texas into a wasteland

global warming was never necessary for that.

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:32

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# ? May 26, 2024 18:34

Fuckt Tupp: Apr 19, 2007; Science

iospace posted:

Hey Hispanics, it's the GOP! Vote for us!

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/765538778761064448

(spoilers: they won't)

GOP Hispanics: The Wall Ahead.

"We've been seeing in polls that you Hispanics are confused about who you should be afraid of. We just want to keep your criminal family out of our country in order to protect YOU."

Radish posted:

The 'angry man�s candidate': George Wallace and the roots of the American Independent Party "Angry white people" sounds pretty familiar. WE MUST FIND OUT WHAT THEY ARE SO ANGRY ABOUT! (it's racism )

Good! We should all be angry about racism! *reads article* Oh... :smith:

# ? Aug 16, 2016 17:33

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

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