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Cliff Racer posted:Those special elections are actually pretty useful for the winner (who typically also wins the regular 2 year term as well) as it allows them to get in seniority over all of the people who begin their terms with the new congress. In this case though the primary for the seat's next term is today.
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Aug 13, 2016 22:32
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Cliff Racer posted:Those special elections are actually pretty useful for the winner (who typically also wins the regular 2 year term as well) as it allows them to get in seniority over all of the people who begin their terms with the new congress. they're also useful if you're shelley "dracula oval office" sekula-gibbs because then you get to be a real life congresswoman for two months 
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Aug 13, 2016 22:48
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Concerned Citizen posted:i'm in Finally the goon party gains a foothold
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Aug 14, 2016 21:57
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great news! tulsi gabbard won her primary! another victory for the le- https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/649615636088365058 oh.
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Aug 15, 2016 03:29
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NC House Majority Leader resigns. A Duke Energy employee before he was elected, the story suggests that he has pushed their agenda in committees and bills.
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Aug 15, 2016 03:38
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Absurd Alhazred posted:NC House Majority Leader resigns. A Duke Energy employee before he was elected, the story suggests that he has pushed their agenda in committees and bills. he's just gonna go be a lobbyist for duke energy a bunch of the guys like him who were there for the 2010 takeover are retiring this year or have quit already. nearly 20 republicans alone have resigned or announced their retirement this year already that seat is unopposed so whoever they pick will automatically replace him. 58 out of 120 state house seats are unopposed this year. hooray for democracy
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Aug 15, 2016 08:15
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Despite her awful foreign policy views Gabbard actually is pretty solidly on the left.
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Aug 15, 2016 13:34
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Cliff Racer posted:Despite her awful foreign policy views Gabbard actually is pretty solidly on the left. gabbard was a notorious social conservative a decade ago (the kind that calls their opponents "homosexual extremists"), when she was part of the hawaii state legislature, then she went to iraq and came back saying she's a leftist now. she's probably about as left as her district forces her to be, but sooner or later it's going to catch up with her.
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Aug 15, 2016 15:18
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she's pretty hot, she can call me an homosexual extremist anytime
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Aug 15, 2016 19:53
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Cliff Racer posted:Despite her awful foreign policy views Gabbard actually is pretty solidly on the left. I guess. I find it hard to get past the pretty hateful comments on gay people. Feels like she's just riding this Sanders thing a la Canova.
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Aug 16, 2016 04:06
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Xandu posted:I guess. I find it hard to get past the pretty hateful comments on gay people. Feels like she's just riding this Sanders thing a la Canova. That's sort of the impression I get from her as well.
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Aug 16, 2016 07:10
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She's also a big fan of Indian PM Narendra Modi, the guy who, as Chief Minister of Gujarat, led race riots where hundreds of muslims were killed. Didn't Gabbard have some really terrible policies about homeless people too?
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Aug 16, 2016 10:31
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Ego-bot posted:She's also a big fan of Indian PM Narendra Modi, the guy who, as Chief Minister of Gujarat, led race riots where hundreds of muslims were killed. i thought her connections with the BJP go deeper than that
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Aug 16, 2016 13:08
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She is very sympathetic to the Hindu / Indian nationalist movement. She was fairly anti-gay and very anti-Muslim because of that. She has softened her views on gays a lot and Muslims a little bit in the last few years though.
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Aug 16, 2016 13:56
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sharkbomb posted:Now that's some good poo poo! That is the first poll so far that's had Burr losing. Richard Burr has mostly avoided the negative cred that HB2 has cost other Republicans in NC, by publicly denouncing it. On every other issue, he's just as much of a scumbag of course. And Ross is one of the people on the ballot I am most excited about voting for. Burr did go to the RNC though, and he endorsed Trump. So if Trump collapses, that could very well bring Burr down with the ship.
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Aug 17, 2016 00:50
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burr's got a massive cash on hand advantage though
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Aug 17, 2016 02:38
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https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/765956980779413504 bayh running is really loving up republican chances to keep the senate
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Aug 17, 2016 18:51
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From the Trump/GOP thread:zoux posted:*Paul Ryan picks up the phone*  https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/765970013429850113 Hope this continued tepid support can open up some ad opportunities for Strickland
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Aug 17, 2016 19:13
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thethreeman posted:From the Trump/GOP thread: The way gerrymandering works is by basically compacting one party's voters into as few districts as possible while spreading yours into as many as possible while still maintaining majorities. This is usually done by creating few highly urbanized districts which go like 75-25 D surrounded by many suburban ones which go like 55-45 R and then fill in the gaps with big rural ones which go 75-25 R. The rural ones aren't huge in number and aren't really at risk of flipping, and the margins in the urban ones are just going to be bigger, but the suburban ones are where the "flip" happens. Trump alienating the squishy-R suburban demographic by being shitballs nutso runs the risk of flipping the house and flipping it hard, because of those small-margin suburb districts the GOP put together in 2010 thinking it was a great idea. The margins in those suburban ones is such that a D+9 result in generic congressional polling is where that tipping point is hit in enough of those suburban districts to give the Dems a house majority. I'd prefer seeing it D+15 like the national Hillary numbers but people are weird about congress since most folks don't even know who represents them.
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Aug 17, 2016 19:25
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FAUXTON posted:The way gerrymandering works is by basically compacting one party's voters into as few districts as possible while spreading yours into as many as possible while still maintaining majorities. This is usually done by creating few highly urbanized districts which go like 75-25 D surrounded by many suburban ones which go like 55-45 R and then fill in the gaps with big rural ones which go 75-25 R. The rural ones aren't huge in number and aren't really at risk of flipping, and the margins in the urban ones are just going to be bigger, but the suburban ones are where the "flip" happens. Trump alienating the squishy-R suburban demographic by being shitballs nutso runs the risk of flipping the house and flipping it hard, because of those small-margin suburb districts the GOP put together in 2010 thinking it was a great idea. The margins in those suburban ones is such that a D+9 result in generic congressional polling is where that tipping point is hit in enough of those suburban districts to give the Dems a house majority. I'd prefer seeing it D+15 like the national Hillary numbers but people are weird about congress since most folks don't even know who represents them. Thanks. I'm biased by the district I grew up in - a liberal town/burb dwarfed by a district extended out in one direction with rural counties. Places where people like Romney had little connection to the rural voters, and zero support in the blue dot, but where I expect Trump to run away with it. Gerrymandering happens in a lot of ways I guess, need to read more about it thethreeman has issued a correction as of 19:58 on Aug 17, 2016 |
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Aug 17, 2016 19:55
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Just wondering, Rubio is running unopposed for his senate seat and Murphy and Grayson are still competing with each other. It looks like Murphy will win. Can we expect a bounce to his poll numbers after clinching the nomination? I'm hopeful just because, with the exception of Trump losing, I want nothing more than to see Rubio humiliated twice in one year and a his political career ground to a halt.
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Aug 17, 2016 20:34
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Ego-bot posted:Just wondering, Rubio is running unopposed for his senate seat and Murphy and Grayson are still competing with each other. It looks like Murphy will win. Can we expect a bounce to his poll numbers after clinching the nomination? I don't think any of the recent polls have specifically broken down how many Grayson voters are committed to voting / not voting for Murphy in the general. Statistically, there are likely some people, but not a huge amount. Once Murphy becomes the official nominee, I'd expect him to increase his polling a little bit. He's not getting the 7 points he needs in the most recent poll from consolidating Democratic support though. He needs turnout to be very high for him, very few or no split ticket voters, lower turnout for Republicans, or current Rubio supporters to leave Rubio.
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Aug 17, 2016 20:48
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/texans-down-on-cruz.html god I can't wait to see how different these #s are after a trump loss quote:PPP's new Texas poll finds that Ted Cruz has become unpopular in the state, and he could be in trouble for winning the Republican nomination in 2018. Overall only 39% of voters in the state approve of the job Cruz is doing, to 48% who disapprove. It was already clear from national polling that Donald Trump had come out ahead in his feud at the GOP convention with Cruz, but we find that even in Texas 52% of Republicans now say that they prefer Trump as their nominee this year to only 38% who would go with Cruz. Ahead of Castro 48/36, though Another article out today saying McCaul hasn't ruled out running against cruz
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Aug 17, 2016 21:02
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thethreeman posted:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/texans-down-on-cruz.html
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Aug 17, 2016 21:18
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2018 is a long time off and Trump will be out of the picture in under three months. I think Cruz keeps his seat, although he's obviously hated by his senate colleagues and ineffective at getting Texas-beneficial legislation through.
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Aug 18, 2016 02:13
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Ego-bot posted:Just wondering, Rubio is running unopposed for his senate seat and Murphy and Grayson are still competing with each other. It looks like Murphy will win. Can we expect a bounce to his poll numbers after clinching the nomination? Actually Rubio still has some rich rear end in a top hat running against him. I heard an attack ad against Rubio from him on the TV the other day. Dude's got about a snowball's chance in hell of making it, but he's there. Murphy's bigger problem is everyone knows who Rubio is and relatively no one knows who Murphy is. He's started airing actual ads and stuff so this may change.
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Aug 18, 2016 02:16
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Rubio's challenger is a Tea Party rich guy who hates him personally or something.
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Aug 18, 2016 13:18
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Oh lord, I just looked at the "new" DKE and its worthless. I think its safe to say that the old Swing State Project is dead now. Go on, count the articles that aren't about Trump.
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Aug 19, 2016 07:23
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https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/766765463611187200 Looks like they're blaming it on (1) the conventions resulting in bad media coverage for republicans, and (2) donors focusing on protecting the senate
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Aug 20, 2016 02:20
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what's the smart money saying about the total house composition at this point
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Aug 20, 2016 07:38
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Zas posted:what's the smart money saying about the total house composition at this point Dems win seats but not enough. I think the smart money though doesn't take the trumpening seriously enough and his upcoming campaign against the rnc when they pull his funding.
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Aug 20, 2016 13:44
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evilweasel posted:Dems win seats but not enough. I think the smart money though doesn't take the trumpening seriously enough and his upcoming campaign against the rnc when they pull his funding. And voter apathy when Trump supporters see his campaign as a lost cause in early November.
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Aug 20, 2016 16:02
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We're also about to find out the true value of a well-run GOTV campaign. Obama outperformed his polls in 2012, at least slightly, and that's been attributed to his better GOTV campaign. We're a couple months from seeing what that same machine does against Trump's Twitter account and whatever the RNC is hastily throwing together. Romney, for all his faults as a candidate, made his best effort at putting together a GOTV campaign. That's the real wild card in this election, as no one really knows how much of a difference it makes, because every candidate up to this point has done their best to keep matched up with what their opponent is doing. Given how a lot of House races are decided by relatively small numbers of votes, even in places that reliably vote Republican at the top of the ticket, I think the chances of Democrats flipping the House is understated.
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Aug 20, 2016 16:08
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What's first on the agenda for Dems if they get the senate and house? Watch them piss away two years and not do anything because they're afraid of actually doing anything.
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Aug 20, 2016 17:39
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Demon Of The Fall posted:What's first on the agenda for Dems if they get the senate and house? Watch them piss away two years and not do anything because they're afraid of actually doing anything. Approve HRC's Supreme Court nominee.
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Aug 20, 2016 17:52
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Nth Doctor posted:Approve HRC's Supreme Court nominee. Garland will be confirmed in the lame duck.
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Aug 20, 2016 18:02
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Demon Of The Fall posted:What's first on the agenda for Dems if they get the senate and house? Watch them piss away two years and not do anything because they're afraid of actually doing anything. I would think a new VRA but we'll see.
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Aug 20, 2016 18:03
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I take it we're assuming the Democrats remove the filibuster for legislation in this scenario.
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Aug 20, 2016 18:06
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Zas posted:what's the smart money saying about the total house composition at this point Current "smart money" is "Dems pick up between 10-20 seats," with Dems needing 30 to take House.
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Aug 20, 2016 18:07
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Joementum posted:Garland will be confirmed in the lame duck. Yeah I don't get why people don't realize this. If Clinton wins and the Dems get the Senate then Garland's getting confirmed immediately so that the GOP can avoid having Clinton pick someone who might be decades younger and more liberal. Their best case scenario is that she re-nominates Garland and I don't think that'd happen. evilweasel posted:I would think a new VRA but we'll see. This followed by fixing gaps in the ACA and building it out further where needed. New VRA would hopefully include things such as preclearance for all which was needed from the get-go. Sir Kodiak posted:I take it we're assuming the Democrats remove the filibuster for legislation in this scenario. They absolutely will. The only reason they didn't remove it entirely before is because the Dem leadership were idiots who trusted the GOP. The second Ted Cruz or some other chucklefuck filibusters a Clinton nominee, especially for SCOTUS, the filibuster will finally be killed off entirely.
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Aug 20, 2016 18:29
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