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Young Freud posted:But that hit on the BMP looked real bad. Rear flank hit on armor with something like that would have it brew up real quick. It has no turret and has a higher rear than usual, I'm pretty sure it's the field ambulance version of BMP. As such it's less likely to blow up than a combat version as there's no ammo to combust, only the fuel can catch fire. quote:I've got to wonder, what side of that wall is rebel and what side is SAA? I'd assume the side where facing is SAA-controlled, so I'm wondering if that white van in the first video was rebels breaking out or a forward element of SAA forces heading back through. If it was SAA, I would wonder why the ATGM gunner didn't quickly reload and pop one off, because he probably could switch out the tubes by the time they all bunched up in the van. To me it looks like they're collecting the casualties from the first strike to the van? slavatuvs posted:Did you see the second half of the last one? It took out 20-25 easily, maybe more. It's very hard to tell because of the extreme zoom levels just where the missile hit and how close to each other the men were, and then smoke covers it all. Just like the missile seems to be flying super slow because there's no depth perception. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Aug 19, 2016 |
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Aug 19, 2016 22:34
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I doubt those missile hits were nearly as devestating as they appear. In most of the TOW v infantry videos the cone of lethality is extremely narrow. Pretty much only the people within range to reach out and touch whoever was directly hit would be visibly damaged. People standing around just 2-3 meters away almost always walked away. Hell you'll see that guy in the first one just stand there completely unaffected about 3 meters from the impact. That's not to say that those probably weren't devastating traumatic loving events, nor that everyone involved was unhurt (I'm sure there are plenty of concussions and ruptured ear-drums among them), but ultimately anti-armor weapons are poo poo for anti-personnel use. Now if they had some kind of anti-personnel round jfc that would be bloody.
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Aug 19, 2016 22:34
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For something a bit less bloody, some recent rebel drone footage of retreating regime troops with some pretty nice shots of the city itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVwCrtaMw1g Also note the artillery collage to the lower right at the start. Edit. Also I didn't see anyone mention it but the rebels retook Al-Rai again, and have actually managed to keep it for about the past three days. Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 22:58 on Aug 19, 2016 |
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Aug 19, 2016 22:51
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54.4 crowns posted:Or they are fearfull. I look at the Alawites as basically the Arab equivalent of white South Africans who decided to fight to the last man rather than cede power peacefully. Sure they're fearful they'll get ethnically cleansed. So were the Serbs in Kosovo, but it was because many had spent the past several years gleefully doing the same to their neighbors. This conflict has killed half a million people and created the greatest refugee crisis since World War loving 2 and the blame for that ultimately rests on Assad and the Alawite elite power structure he's built to support him. This conflict will only end when he runs out of Alawites, mercs, and conscripts to throw into the meatgrinder. That's the cold, hard, calculating truth of the matter. Assad's idea of a peaceful political solution is a room full of hanged enemies like that scene from Braveheart. Should the Alawites lose enough manpower that they can no longer field an army to garrison the major cities, they'll simply loot what's left of the treasury, take the remainder of Syria's heavy weaponry, and flee into the Tartous mountains where they essentially have an impregnable fortress and the rebels have little incentive to follow them there. I acknowledge they are human beings with complex motives whose lives are ruled by social forces often beyond their control or understanding. That still doesn't change the grim calculus of war that their armies must be defeated in the field. Their leadership would rather see Syria burn to the ground than be free, and they've made that abundantly clear. For long-term peace to come to Syria, the Alawite police state must be dismantled, and they have chosen violence. I don't say "gently caress the Shiites". I say "gently caress the guys who are burning that country down." ISIS still has to be dealt with too, and they're Sunni.
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Aug 20, 2016 04:10
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http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/19/490679863/the-little-boy-in-aleppo-can-one-photo-end-a-warv Can one photo end a war?? No, NPR. No it cannot. Unfortunately. That's their conclusion too, but even the idea that offended western audiences can do anything to stop this war because of a photo they saw...
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Aug 20, 2016 04:32
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Sergg posted:I look at the Alawites as basically the Arab equivalent of white South Africans who decided to fight to the last man rather than cede power peacefully. Sure they're fearful they'll get ethnically cleansed. So were the Serbs in Kosovo, but it was because many had spent the past several years gleefully doing the same to their neighbors. This conflict has killed half a million people and created the greatest refugee crisis since World War loving 2 and the blame for that ultimately rests on Assad and the Alawite elite power structure he's built to support him. This conflict will only end when he runs out of Alawites, mercs, and conscripts to throw into the meatgrinder. That's the cold, hard, calculating truth of the matter. Assad's idea of a peaceful political solution is a room full of hanged enemies like that scene from Braveheart. I say this every year and every year the mountain of bodies grows a mile higher. People keep saying "But what about those poor Alawites?!" and if history is any indication, they'll get a deal that's a hell of a lot sweeter than their victims ever did. If they don't continue to grind their nation to dust for the next 2 decades and actually suffer crushing defeats on the battlefield then they'll probably get a mini statelet on the coast and be co-opted in no time to be proxy forces against some Islamist group in Syria as the Sunni warlords fight over the scraps. EDIT: and for the record I'm under no illusions that either the Alawites or ISIS are all simply cartoonish villains. They're people just like me. They kiss their children goodbye before going to work. They are a product of their environment. The sad fact is that many of them have made seemingly rational choices on an individual level that ultimately led to this tragedy of the commons. Sergg fucked around with this message at 04:41 on Aug 20, 2016 |
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Aug 20, 2016 04:35
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Play posted:http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/19/490679863/the-little-boy-in-aleppo-can-one-photo-end-a-warv Kony 2016!
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Aug 20, 2016 04:52
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Play posted:http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/19/490679863/the-little-boy-in-aleppo-can-one-photo-end-a-warv If 11 million displaced, 500,000 dead, and 20,000 tortured to death isn't enough to convince people something needs to be done to stop the regimes bombing campaign, no, I don't think a sad picture will get the job done either.
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Aug 20, 2016 07:04
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Sergg posted:I look at the Alawites as basically the Arab equivalent of white South Africans who decided to fight to the last man rather than cede power peacefully. Sure they're fearful they'll get ethnically cleansed. So were the Serbs in Kosovo, but it was because many had spent the past several years gleefully doing the same to their neighbors. This conflict has killed half a million people and created the greatest refugee crisis since World War loving 2 and the blame for that ultimately rests on Assad and the Alawite elite power structure he's built to support him. This conflict will only end when he runs out of Alawites, mercs, and conscripts to throw into the meatgrinder. That's the cold, hard, calculating truth of the matter. Assad's idea of a peaceful political solution is a room full of hanged enemies like that scene from Braveheart. Sergg posted:I say this every year and every year the mountain of bodies grows a mile higher. People keep saying "But what about those poor Alawites?!" and if history is any indication, they'll get a deal that's a hell of a lot sweeter than their victims ever did. If they don't continue to grind their nation to dust for the next 2 decades and actually suffer crushing defeats on the battlefield then they'll probably get a mini statelet on the coast and be co-opted in no time to be proxy forces against some Islamist group in Syria as the Sunni warlords fight over the scraps. First of all Sergg, your good people, you don't have to prove that you have your poo poo in order. And yes if the Jacobins comes in charge the likelyhood of full intervention becomes more likely especially when Russia loses any reason for being there, I know Assad was successfull with his sectarian propeganda 5 years ago...but I also know that the defectors could have been so much greater if the outside lent more support and didnt enact the catastrophic embargo. Its not just the Alawite im concerned about as such, but its the litmus test for the opposition...as every year of missery brings more and more closer to the tragedy of the commons. This fear is more or less a representation of my sense of justice and hope for the greater good for all. If Syria turned into another Iran, Saudia Arabia or Bahrain...gently caress lets face it that would be Acceptable, it would be an end to this travisty. But it would be an ironic abomination in my eyes, and the west have little influence to encourage otherwise as the Nusra and their little project of missguided nationalism have more credibility then any...and where the hell do you discuss ethics and metaphysics when your children are starving or blasted to kingdom come? For some inexplicable reason I have hope that all will be well, that in the end scenario people will realize here their prioritize lies. But they are human, Sunnia, Shia, True belivers kafirs, takfirs the theology and ideals matters gently caress all, they all have an capability to dissapoint. Though maybe not https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CghhgiKMQD4
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Aug 20, 2016 07:22
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37136536 US scrambling planes to intercept Syrian Air Force that was threatening US spec ops embedded with Kurdish units. 2nd day of Syrian military bombing the Kurds around Hasakah.
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Aug 20, 2016 07:34
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'You can't bomb here because we have special forces helping the guys attacking your forces right now' isn't a particularly principled stand, but it's good to be the strongest country in the world. Since I want Rojava to succeed, I support this hypocrisy.
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Aug 20, 2016 08:05
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If there ever is a moment for SDF and FSA to become blood brothers it is now.
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Aug 20, 2016 08:09
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Sinteres posted:'You can't bomb here because we have special forces helping the guys attacking your forces right now' isn't a particularly principled stand, but it's good to be the strongest country in the world. Since I want Rojava to succeed, I support this hypocrisy. What is the US going to do about it?
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Aug 20, 2016 08:14
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Volkerball posted:What is the US going to do about it? Possibly shoot down any Syrian planes bombing in the area if they threaten the spec ops guys? That's pretty much what they've been threatening to do. Hopefully Russia stays out of it.
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Aug 20, 2016 08:33
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Sergg posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37136536 I don't understand why Gov. forces choose now to attack YPG positions. I know there's sometimes violence between the two, but that they get along for the most part. Whats up now?
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Aug 20, 2016 08:33
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Charliegrs posted:Possibly shoot down any Syrian planes bombing in the area if they threaten the spec ops guys? That's pretty much what they've been threatening to do. Hopefully Russia stays out of it. Remember that time the US had aircraft carriers parked in the Med on standby and nothing happened? The US has had diplomats and operatives embedded with rebel groups getting their asses bombed off and the US didn't do anything about that. You can safely call this bluff 10/10 times, and Assad might just step up his air campaign against the YPG just to thumb his nose at the US because he knows it. They aren't shooting down poo poo.
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Aug 20, 2016 08:38
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Volkerball posted:Remember that time the US had aircraft carriers parked in the Med on standby and nothing happened? The US has had diplomats and operatives embedded with rebel groups getting their asses bombed off and the US didn't do anything about that. You can safely call this bluff 10/10 times, and Assad might just step up his air campaign against the YPG just to thumb his nose at the US because he knows it. They aren't shooting down poo poo. It's your classic Mexican standoff. The Kurds have Qamlishi and Hasakah surrounded, the SAA & associated mercs have Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo surrounded. We're not going to start a bombing campaign against Syria during an election year, but will we put a leash on our proxies that are armed to the teeth with our heavy weapons?
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Aug 20, 2016 09:04
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KSA is bombing an anti-Saudi rally in Sana'a right now. It's a tense scene. https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/766914266423328768
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Aug 20, 2016 09:28
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What? Bombing or circling?
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Aug 20, 2016 09:32
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Apparently Kurdish units are interdicting planes trying to land at Qamishli airport, the only source of supply for government units in that region. Meanwhile, In Hasakah governate, the regional governor is asking for a truce to negotiate a ceasefire. I think we're beginning to see the practical breakdown of relations between SyrGov and the Kurds, which could have dramatic implications for the Syrian Civil war. The government needs the YPG on their side right now, that the government is openly attacking the Kurds tells me that the government is either dramatically overestimating their position of strength, or there are other things about to happen.
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Aug 20, 2016 09:47
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A White Guy posted:Apparently Kurdish units are interdicting planes trying to land at Qamishli airport Just curious, but how are they able to do this? Do they prevent planes from landing by presenting the threat of shooting them down or do they have some other effective means of making sure that whatever lands can't get offloaded?
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Aug 20, 2016 09:54
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Point a whole bunch of artillery guns at the runway, make it very clear to local forces that if planes continue to land, you'll gently caress the runway up. If they keep landing planes, just start shelling the runway, and it'll make it impossible for planes to safely land, and planes are what bring in the heavy equipment and supplies to feed the garrison in Qamishli. The local garrison commanders aren't stupid, they recognize that they live and die purely by the goodwill of the Kurds. I can't say the same for their government. What baffles is me is why the government is choosing now to challenge the Kurds. Aleppo is a meat-grinder that's sucking in units from all over Syria, and as is, the government's manpower is stretched to to capacity. Now seems like an awful time to to start fighting the SDF, considering that the SDF just exterminated a pretty sizeable portion of ISIS's forces in Northern Syria.
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Aug 20, 2016 10:03
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A White Guy posted:What baffles is me is why the government is choosing now to challenge the Kurds. Aleppo is a meat-grinder that's sucking in units from all over Syria, and as is, the government's manpower is stretched to to capacity. Now seems like an awful time to to start fighting the SDF, considering that the SDF just exterminated a pretty sizeable portion of ISIS's forces in Northern Syria. They probably took one look at Manbij and thought that if they didn't do something in the Kurds' backyard they'd keep advancing south against ISIS and Deir ez-Zor would become the next Hasakah.
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Aug 20, 2016 10:09
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Warbadger posted:The sand thing comes from an old manual for the BMP-1. It requires a bunch of work to disconnect the tanks from the fuel system and then to fill the tanks up. Even more work to disconnect the doors to empty the sand out, clean them out, and put them back on. It's never been a standard operating procedure kinda thing. It made me wonder about the BMP-3 and they kept the dual door setup, but they're just flat doors now, so it seems the Russians kind of wised up on that design. The-Mole posted:I doubt those missile hits were nearly as devestating as they appear. In most of the TOW v infantry videos the cone of lethality is extremely narrow. Pretty much only the people within range to reach out and touch whoever was directly hit would be visibly damaged. People standing around just 2-3 meters away almost always walked away. Hell you'll see that guy in the first one just stand there completely unaffected about 3 meters from the impact. Unless the blast can throw them off their feet and into a wall or off a building (which I remember seeing once with a TOW against a machine gun emplacement in an apartment building balcony), it's minor concussion injuries and ruptured eardrums. Concussion is only really bad when it's like artillery or bombs, most missiles tend to have their explosive power maximized through shaping at minimum of weight, so it's a trade-off. That's why fragmentation is important for any type of infantry explosive like grenades or RPGs, because it gives some mass to focus the explosion's energy behind and can increase fatality/casualty radii. It reminds me of this photo, from early in the war, where a tank shell hit a rebel barricade and an attached photojournalist took a photo that captured the plasma jet of the tank shell cutting through the barricade before the rest of the explosive shock wave turned the barricade into shrapnel, which ultimately killed three of the rebels manning the checkpoint. http://i.imgur.com/VrDbCDy.jpg (maybe  since it's caught milliseconds before the three's deaths)
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Aug 20, 2016 10:12
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RZApublican posted:They probably took one look at Manbij and thought that if they didn't do something in the Kurds' backyard they'd keep advancing south against ISIS and Deir ez-Zor would become the next Hasakah. I get that reasoning, but the Kurds are an entirely different beast than the Rebels. The Rebels are a rag-tag group of various groups that only marginally hate the government more than they hate each other, some groups being 'moderate' , while most are straight up Jihadists, and other groups being bandits gussied up as 'rebels'. The SDF is an actual functioning military organization, with a functional command structure and is well-supplied by US arms. The Kurds are a far different and far more competent enemy than the rebels are, and the SAA has shown that they have serious issues fighting people who aren't terribads (see the recent Al-Raqqa offensive) with any other outfit than Tiger Force. The way I see it, the government is at the cusp of capturing Aleppo. Provoking conflict with the Kurds and giving them any reason to collaborate with the rebels (who hate them almost as much as the government) seems like a supremely bad move.
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Aug 20, 2016 10:17
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Scaramouche posted:What? Bombing or circling? Both. There were pictures of the explosions and activists that are there were tweeting about it.
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Aug 20, 2016 10:46
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Sputnik says the Syrian government is fighting Daesh in Hasakah. http://de.sputniknews.com/panorama/20160819/312189635/syrische-infanteris-stoesst-ins-zentrum-von-al-hasaka-vor.html
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Aug 20, 2016 11:34
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A White Guy posted:I get that reasoning, but the Kurds are an entirely different beast than the Rebels. The Rebels are a rag-tag group of various groups that only marginally hate the government more than they hate each other, some groups being 'moderate' , while most are straight up Jihadists, and other groups being bandits gussied up as 'rebels'. The SDF is an actual functioning military organization, with a functional command structure and is well-supplied by US arms. The Kurds are a far different and far more competent enemy than the rebels are, and the SAA has shown that they have serious issues fighting people who aren't terribads (see the recent Al-Raqqa offensive) with any other outfit than Tiger Force. The YPG was getting steamrolled by ISIS before US air support came to the rescue. They're a relatively small force on the periphery of the fight. It's pretty clear that whenever infighting is put aside that salafist aligned forces are the most competent fighters in the country and it's not close. They've got tens of thousands of experienced foreign fighters from other conflicts, and are backed by turkey, ksa, and qatar, who are much more liberal with providing weapons then the us is. The regime has buckled like a belt in front of them everywhere they've faced off, from Idlib to west Aleppo. And I'd hesitate to draw too much from this recent spat between the SAA and the YPG. The regime hit Qamishli with artillery for a few days a couple months ago and killed a bunch of civilians, and the situation still cooled down relatively quickly and painlessly. That's been the case with every other escalation, and chances are it'll happen again here. I tend to think it's just the regime reminding the Kurds that they haven't forgotten about them.
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Aug 20, 2016 11:45
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RZApublican posted:Just curious, but how are they able to do this? Do they prevent planes from landing by presenting the threat of shooting them down or do they have some other effective means of making sure that whatever lands can't get offloaded? The easiest way is to park a bunch of trucks/moveable obstacles on the runways. I mean, for someone who has physical presence there. Otherwise, AA guns. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Aug 20, 2016 |
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Aug 20, 2016 14:28
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Things are looking up for the kurds atl- https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/turkey/1.737735 quote:Turkey to Take More Active Role in Syrian Conflict, Says PM Yildirim Welp 
Rincewinds fucked around with this message at 14:48 on Aug 20, 2016 |
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Aug 20, 2016 14:45
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YPG is led by Fethullah Gülen!
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Aug 20, 2016 15:01
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quote:prevent the war-torn country being divided along ethnic lines
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Aug 20, 2016 15:10
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Hey, whatever came out of Erdogan going to Moscow? Anything formally come out of that or was it all closed door?
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Aug 20, 2016 15:21
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Cat Mattress posted:You're like five years too late. I'd say it's less that, and more like: "You don't get to tear up this country like that! Only we get to do that!"
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Aug 20, 2016 15:26
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Maybe Syria got the green light from Erdogan to take care of their 'mutual problem'
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Aug 20, 2016 15:33
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Rincewinds posted:Things are looking up for the kurds atl- This right after Turkey gut their command staff, oh boy. I look forward to the ensuing Nenonen posted:YPG is led by Fethullah Gülen! HAS ANYONE EVER SEEN GULEN AND OCALAN AT THE SAME PLACE AT THE SAME TIME?! I THOUGHT SO!
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Aug 20, 2016 16:05
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There is also a small chance they want to halt Kurdish progress against ISIS. Losing ISIS while also not being able to claim responsibility for the victory would be detrimental to the regime on the propaganda side, allow the SDF/Kurds to consolidate prior to the inevitable SAA attempt to murder them back into line, and means a lot more rebels can focus on the SAA with secure territories behind them.
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Aug 20, 2016 16:06
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9i2rAr0hRY JFS video (with subs!) about pro-Assad attacks on the Air Force technical college
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Aug 20, 2016 16:53
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Warbadger posted:There is also a small chance they want to halt Kurdish progress against ISIS. Losing ISIS while also not being able to claim responsibility for the victory would be detrimental to the regime on the propaganda side, allow the SDF/Kurds to consolidate prior to the inevitable SAA attempt to murder them back into line, and means a lot more rebels can focus on the SAA with secure territories behind them. I think that's part of it. The other part I think is YPG moving resources around the airbase, tightening the noose, but not initiating hanging. At some point the local commander felt he was being threatened by their actions, and acted against the most egregious threats. Escalating against the YPG right now offers very little in the way of gains, but does come at a time where they are quite occupied, and are quite far away. I doubt they have the resources to fight ISIS across the Euphrates and take two urban centers from the regime. Good a time as any to do some preventative action.
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Aug 20, 2016 17:55
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https://twitter.com/bdrhmnhrk/status/766931339580940290 https://twitter.com/bdrhmnhrk/status/766949440343175168 
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Aug 20, 2016 18:09
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