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theflyingorc posted:Assuming Rasmussen's off by the ~4 points we assume they are, doesn't this mean there's a very real chance of the Democrats taking the house? She needs like +9/+10 to take it, right? And she's at 7/8? http://election.princeton.edu/house-polling-margin/ not really, at least not yet. My cynicism is strong so I suspect nothing good will happen for the House, but who knows
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Aug 25, 2016 15:14
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emdash posted:http://election.princeton.edu/house-polling-margin/ not really, at least not yet. My cynicism is strong so I suspect nothing good will happen for the House, but who knows I mean, that's showing it currently in the "who knows" no mans land, doesn't it? I'm not saying it will happen, but it really sounds like it's bordering on possible.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:16
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theflyingorc posted:Assuming Rasmussen's off by the ~4 points we assume they are, doesn't this mean there's a very real chance of the Democrats taking the house? She needs like +9/+10 to take it, right? And she's at 7/8? Trying to predict the house is basically dark magic at this point. With normal voting patterns, I usually see between +8 and +10 as the conventional wisdom. Meanwhile Trump is awful with the typically reliable GOP bloc of White Women and candidates across the country are having to thread the needle between still getting Trump Supporters without pissing off White Women and other traditional establishment R groups. Additionally, many states sought to dilute Hispanic voting power by spreading it between districts during the 2010 redistricting process... the same group that has grown markedly since that time, and are reportedly registering in mass numbers and expected to have unprecedented turnout. I sincerely doubt "What if we lose white women?" was factored into the redistricting, which gives the Democrats slightly more than a snowball's chance for grabbing the House. A ton of it is now on the shoulders of Hillary and the DCCC, but they have an uphill battle given the district lines and the fact that major conservative donors have been taking money they'd earmarked for the presidency and spending it downticket.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:16
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:You can have for-profit healthcare with heavy market restrictions, you know. For how long?
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Aug 25, 2016 15:17
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Shifty Pony posted:It isn't that it costs significantly more to make a non-CFC inhaler, it is that you have to get every formulation approved by the FDA and that costs a poo poo-ton and takes forever. That limits the number of competitors in the market leading to those that are there charging gently caress-you prices. You'd think that the high prices would incentivize other manufacturers to get in but they don't because they know that the existing manufacturer can drop prices at will as they already made back the FDA costs. Which really just proves that pricing is artificially inflated and set only at the nexus of maximum pain for the consumer and maximum profit for the company.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:18
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theflyingorc posted:Assuming Rasmussen's off by the ~4 points we assume they are, doesn't this mean there's a very real chance of the Democrats taking the house? She needs like +9/+10 to take it, right? And she's at 7/8? Retaking the house would be very difficult because of the raw hurdles. But even cutting deeply into their margin could make Paul Ryan more willing to cut the tea party loose on some things (like Budget).
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Aug 25, 2016 15:19
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Mattavist posted:For how long? The majority of healthcare systems aren't completely state controlled. They're in fact the minority.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:19
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iospace posted:4 OH FOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUR You can't really sue/collect damages from imaginary people though
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Aug 25, 2016 15:20
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emdash posted:http://election.princeton.edu/house-polling-margin/ not really, at least not yet. My cynicism is strong so I suspect nothing good will happen for the House, but who knows Because of the gerrymandering at the House level and how incurably red so many red states are, I could see an outcome where the EC margin is "only" ~347-191 and the Republicans easily keep the House - but the popular vote gap approaches the magic 60-40 split typically associated with "electoral cataclysm" losses like 1964 and 1972.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:20
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McAlister posted:If Facebook has an IPO ( initial public offering ) and Adam buys stock then Adam gives money to Facebook which they use. But when Adam sells that stock to Brenda Facebook gets no money. Adam gets the money only. Brenda now receives dividends from Facebook even though she didn't give Facebook a single cent. If the bill and Melinda gates foundation buys the stock from Brenda they likewise become people who take money away from Facebook without having put any money into Facebook.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:20
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https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/768814174973595649 checkmate, libtards
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Aug 25, 2016 15:21
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Retaking the house would be very difficult because of the raw hurdles. But even cutting deeply into their margin could make Paul Ryan more willing to cut the tea party loose on some things (like Budget).
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Aug 25, 2016 15:24
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Also keep in mind that this election is going to test how much a lack of GOTV operations actually hurts you. The polls aren't accounting for the fact that Trump's campaign isn't running a tradition GOTV effort and probably won't be as up to speed with things like having volunteers drive people to polling locations. I also think turnout will be depressed as the harsh reality that Trump can't actually win starts to hit in late October. I think these factors combined leads to Trump losing even worse than projected, and maybe in my dream scenario, we retake the House.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:24
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We talk about this everytime it comes up, but UHC does not require full state control to work. We're also talking about three different parts of the healthcare system: medical care (hospitals and doctors), ancillary medical services (medical devices and pharmaceuticals), and health insurance.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:25
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/768814174973595649 Trump is operating on a completely different plane of reality. Which is to say, the plane that is crashing.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:26
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WampaLord posted:I also think turnout will be depressed as the harsh reality that Trump can't actually win starts to hit in late October.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:27
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WampaLord posted:Also keep in mind that this election is going to test how much a lack of GOTV operations actually hurts you. The polls aren't accounting for the fact that Trump's campaign isn't running a tradition GOTV effort and probably won't be as up to speed with things like having volunteers drive people to polling locations. B-b-but the silent majority!!!
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Aug 25, 2016 15:27
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/768814174973595649 This actually makes a lot of Trump's contradictory statements make a lot of sense, if you assume his message hasn't changed but his words have. For example: Trump Statement 1: "Mexicans are bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists" Trump Statement 2: "I love Hispanics!" The logical conclusion based on Pearson's logic that the message hasn't changed but the words have is that Donald Trump loves criminals and rapists. Considering his past relationships with Mark Foley and that billionaire pedophile whose name I can't remember, this conclusion makes perfect sense.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:28
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kaleedity posted:does that account for why the same inhalers that cost hundreds of dollars in the states go for less than twenty dollars in europe (2013 article http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/13/us/the-soaring-cost-of-a-simple-breath.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) Glad I didn't live in the US growing up. All my family have asthma, 4 brothers. And we went through 3-4 inhalers a week as kids. gently caress, even now I can dander into a pharmacy and get one for 10 euros.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:29
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emdash posted:Rasmussen national 4-way: Clinton +4, a 2-point swing toward Clinton from a week ago loving Rasmussen has Clinton up by 4?! Boy oh boy 
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Aug 25, 2016 15:29
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Kilroy posted:Trump voters are not exactly known for their strong grasp of the really real, however harsh. The die-hards? Sure, they're life mission is to vote for Trump, but they're a minority of a minority. Your average Republican who isn't a Trump fanatic will listen to polls, will start to get depressed, and a significant number of them will go "Eh, why bother voting, Hillary's gonna win anyway."
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Aug 25, 2016 15:31
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http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/25/12639010/epipen-mylan-allergy-treatment-hillary-clinton Mylan will be making the drug more affordable, and this is a right-direction step, but it won't solve their PR problem nor does it go far enough.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:32
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vyelkin posted:This actually makes a lot of Trump's contradictory statements make a lot of sense, if you assume his message hasn't changed but his words have. For example: Trump is like a one-man Baron of Munchhausen game gone horribly horribly wrong.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:33
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Yeah drug prices are insane , my medication is 9000 dollars without prescription coverage. Prescription prices are a poverty trap for persons with disabilities just like we can't get married in some instances because we would die without the Medicaid coverage.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:38
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/768814174973595649 It's true, though, on grounds of Trump not actually having anything besides words.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:46
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/25/12639010/epipen-mylan-allergy-treatment-hillary-clinton They'll just raise the price of something else, like that old Carmax commercial where the guy squeezed the balloon to show how car prices work
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Aug 25, 2016 15:51
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FlamingLiberal posted:These articles about GOP out performing Dems in registering new voters down here in FL is concerning. We have a grand total of one statewide elected Democrat (Bill Nelson) and that's with a Democratic edge in voter registration. What I have no idea is that if this is just typical FL Dem incompetence or if people are actually enthused enough about Trump to actually get off their rear end and go vote for him. 538 actually had a piece on this yesterday: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-voter-registration-gains-probably-arent-gains-at-all/ quote:Examining the trends in these states under a microscope reveals that what’s happening is more a mix of party switching, natural replacement and removal of inactive Democratic voters from the rolls than a feverish Trump effort to expand the electorate. And in the Politico piece mentioned earlier, Ben Schreckinger acknowledges that Democrats have made voter registration gains recently in Arizona, Colorado and Nevada, all formerly GOP-leaning western states with fast-growing Latino populations. Edit: quote:Helpfully, Florida also breaks down its registration tallies by race — and that breakdown tells a far different story. Since November 2012, Florida has added a net 436,484 voters to its rolls. Hispanics have accounted for 55 percent of this net growth, and overall, nonwhites have accounted for 76 percent. In other words, most voters who are truly new to Florida’s electorate belong to demographic groups that are generally hostile to Trump.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:53
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Luigi Thirty posted:They'll just raise the price of something else, like that old Carmax commercial where the guy squeezed the balloon to show how car prices work My guess is that won't be the case 
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Aug 25, 2016 15:56
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FuzzySlippers posted:Yep and debating the 90s is not good politics. Part of her philosophy I was reading here is she cares little for cultural or social abstracts. It's not "debating the 90's" if we're discussing major policies that in many (most?) cases are still in place. Gyges posted:She's saying that she agrees that many of the policies enacted in the 90s had unintentional consequences and, in hindsight, were actually bad policies in and of themselves. Is she saying that, or are you saying that? I would say that she is demonstrably not saying that, that she is going out of her way to not say that, while giving very content-free lip-service that can be vaguely interpreted as that. That's concerning. Ya'll are being too generous with these answers. Lightning Knight posted:The most important part of her statement was when she straight up said, I can change policy, not people's minds. Tell me what you need, what the black community needs. I'm a white person and I need to hear from black people what they want, and I will try to do it. That's what we need. What she once did is less important than what she will do, and what she's offering to do is what they want to do. That's fundamentally a BLM victory. I'm not saying that ultimately she isn't leaning in that direction, but it's ridiculous when coupled with this appeal to "workhorse not show horse" legislative concreteness, when she isn't even willing to offer an opinion on specific, important policy issues in a townhall where she was ostensibly supposed to address those concerns. Like, everything she's offering in that transcript is basically "trust me, I'm on your side." That's as much the pitch of a shrewd politician as a con artist. "I feel your pain" "feel-good" politics is actually kind of a bad thing. And it's just bizarre to have her on the one hand admonishing BLM activists for failing to offer concrete plans, while as an individual running for President dissembling to try and give as much of a non-answer as possible. During the '08 primaries and campaign, everyone was reading all these grandiose motives and ideas into Obama's campaign. Obama's campaign was built on vagaries designed to appeal to a broad audience and let them project what they wanted. "Hope" and all that. Then he got into office and he governed as a pretty mediocre centrist that lost basic campaign promises like the public option. It's really hard, probably naive, to take "trust me" as an answer from someone with a mixed record. The burden is on Clinton to assert that she's made shifts of policy from those she previously held. That's not an unreasonable expectation in a townhall specifically designed for exploring these issues, for which she presumably prepared.
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Aug 25, 2016 15:58
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https://twitter.com/mbrodkorb/status/768620720620498944 lol, if he ends up not even on the ballot in MN
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Aug 25, 2016 16:02
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mbrodkorb/status/768620720620498944 There is no way that would happen. The Democrats wouldn't even oppose it simply because they don't want to add anything to the "it was rigged' narrative.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:03
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/768814174973595649 The video of her saying that needs to be in an ad.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:04
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WampaLord posted:Also keep in mind that this election is going to test how much a lack of GOTV operations actually hurts you. The polls aren't accounting for the fact that Trump's campaign isn't running a tradition GOTV effort and probably won't be as up to speed with things like having volunteers drive people to polling locations. Yeah, I think Clinton's margin of victory is going to be even larger than the polls suggest. It's much easier for people to say they're going to vote for someone instead of actually do it, and Trump has virtually no infrastructure to drive people to the polls. I don't think the lack of a GOTV would hurt him as much as it would for Clinton, but the organization gap is so wide that I can't see it not costing him a few percentage points in the election.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:07
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mbrodkorb/status/768620720620498944 Didn't need those 10 EVs anyway!
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Aug 25, 2016 16:13
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I've heard of not going for the fifty-states strategy but this is getting a bit ridiculous.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:15
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http://www.kare11.com/news/politics/trump-pence-not-yet-on-mn-ballot/307472506 They haven't missed the deadline yet, but lol at not being registered in every state more than a week after the convention.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:19
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Dork457 posted:How common are books that are meant to provide some kind of an influence on an upcoming election? I can only imagine Coulter is walking back her absolute support of Trump with the excuse that it's because of his softening on immigration, when in actuality this book could have been on it's way to the printers just as Trump's numbers started to crash. Extremely common. Dozens of them each and every presidential election cycle, and sometimes even some come out for congressional elections. And that's to say nothing of all the books that come out for primary candidates.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:23
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emdash posted:https://twitter.com/mbrodkorb/status/768620720620498944 It's even funnier. They never elected alternate electors and nobody knew until today so the executive committee just said gently caress it and picked some which might be a problem.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:23
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It's a lost cause anyways. Reagan couldn't even take Minnesota.
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Aug 25, 2016 16:27
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But my dream of a reverse color 1984 electoral map 
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