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Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:13
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Lightning Knight posted:That's fair. I'm kind of sad now. I'm sure I'll figure out something though. If you wanna be a teacher (or think you do) but don't want to get a teaching degree it is worth it First hand experience in teaching to decide if you want to do it, good resume building if you decide you don't. It not like you'd be doing something terrible and stupid like going to law school edit: someone remake the sonic image to say there's not ethical participation in society
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Aug 27, 2016 05:14
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berserker posted:They're talking about the forums user/frequent OP Joementum. But yes, gently caress Joe Lieberman in the goatass, forever. My status as worthless newbie has been exposed - oh the shame, the humiliation. Thanks for the info, much appreciated 
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Aug 27, 2016 05:17
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. Yard sign poll?
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Aug 27, 2016 05:17
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. Very low sample size, meaning very high margin of error. Take a look at the sample size compared to other polls of NH.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:18
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My that's rather candid, isn't it?
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Aug 27, 2016 05:24
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. I personally follow this thread on reddit (they make a new one every week or so) sort it by new they cover every single legitimate poll and delve into the crosstabs and all that analysis The top post in response to Reuters releasing a bunch of new polling says the following quote:Can we just agree that Reuters is completely bullshit at this point? Trump doing 27 points worse than everyone else is projecting in Alabama and West Virginia? Clinton doing better in Nebraska than in Wisconsin? Trump gaining 15 points in one week in New Hampshire, 11 points in one week in Missouri, and 6 points in one week in Idaho? Clinton gaining 12 points in one week in Alabama, 19 points in one week in Nebraska, 9 points in one week in South Carolina, and 7 points in one week in Pennsylvania? Really? I agree. Their poll makes zero sense.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:25
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. Apparently the sample size is just 133 likely voters, meaning the spread is quite literally only 19 people. They're swingy in other states compared to their previous result too, like Trump's lead in Alabama shrinking from 18 points to 6, and South Carolina going from +9 Trump to a tie. It's bound to happen when you're polling tons of states with only a tiny sample from each, and it won't throw off aggregators that weight their averages properly. It just means you're probably better off looking at 538/PEC/Upshot's interpretation of these numbers than the Ipsos table itself. Supercar Gautier fucked around with this message at 05:29 on Aug 27, 2016 |
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Aug 27, 2016 05:25
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LePage is absolutely furious about being called a bigot, despite the fact that he, uh, kinda well is: quote:“Paul LePage is not mentally or emotionally fit to hold office. His words and actions have crossed a line. Threats of violence are never acceptable and cannot be tolerated in civilized society,” said Democratic House Leadership in a press release this morning. I knew Trump picked the wrong VP candidate.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:26
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Supercar Gautier posted:Apparently the sample size is just 133 likely voters, meaning the spread is quite literally only 19 people. They're swingy in other states compared to their previous result too, like Trump's lead in Alabama shrinking from 18 points to 6. Is 133 people even enough of a sample size to call it a poll and not just a collection of anecdotal opinions? Seems like if just a couple of those people have a bad day and change their mind suddenly the poll looks like its bouncing around.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:31
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I want to meet the people who decide to change their mind re: voting for Trump or Clinton because they had a bad day edit: I mean I know they're out there, I'd just like to meet one and look deep into their eyes and try and see if anything is going on in there.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:37
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FuzzySlippers posted:Is 133 people even enough of a sample size to call it a poll and not just a collection of anecdotal opinions? Seems like if just a couple of those people have a bad day and change their mind suddenly the poll looks like its bouncing around. The subsamples for states might also not be individually demographically weighted...
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Aug 27, 2016 05:40
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NBC interviews Trumps quack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNZ6UP1Iuqw This election is like a brilliant satire written by a comic genius that just never ends and keeps getting better and better. 
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Aug 27, 2016 05:43
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:NBC interviews Trumps quack: Honestly, as amusing as this is, I don't know if I can really blame this guy much. I probably wouldn't rock the boat either if near-millionaire Trump was my patient, I could gouge the poo poo out of him as well as getting my cool-rear end hairdo on TV.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:53
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You know if you click that link to the Reuters thing, there's a link in the first paragraph labeled "or read how we did it". It's not exactly wizardry to find out what they're doing.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:58
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Mister Adequate posted:Honestly, as amusing as this is, I don't know if I can really blame this guy much. I probably wouldn't rock the boat either if near-millionaire Trump was my patient, I could gouge the poo poo out of him as well as getting my cool-rear end hairdo on TV. It's accepted that rich people in this country can just go to bent doctors who will happily prescribe them moon dust if that is what gets their patients to normal. The war on drugs is only against cheap drugs that the poor can afford. Michael Jackson wasn't nearly as wealthy as Trump supposedly is and he found a doctor willing to prescribe him propofol on a regular basis which is completely insane, medically unjustifiable and which killed him eventually. Who knows what drugs this guy is supplying to Trump? If I had to guess it would be amphetamines, since Trump was a known abuser of diet pills and his behaviour seems irrational and hyper. Not to mention the doc seemed under the influence of something himself.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:00
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. New Hampshire is a libertarian microcosm in the United States
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Aug 27, 2016 06:08
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berserker posted:I want to meet the people who decide to change their mind re: voting for Trump or Clinton because they had a bad day That there are "swing voters" at all in the current US political climate is completely asinine. 16 years ago when Gore was running away from Clinton and picked Lieberman for VP while W was talking about "compassionate conservatism"? I could see someone with centrist views actually having a tough choice. But now, even without Trump involved, there is such a clear difference between the two parties that I have no idea how even a slightly politically aware voter might not know what party they're voting for well before the campaigns even start. There aren't many left, but apparently there's enough of them that they could swing a close election, and that's scary as hell.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:25
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berserker posted:I want to meet the people who decide to change their mind re: voting for Trump or Clinton because they had a bad day
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Aug 27, 2016 06:27
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most swing voters are very uninformed and feel insecure about picking sides because they think "both sides are bad" so yeah trump may say some crazy things but you know, hes just being honest? clinton is corrupt. she's a liar. she's in it for money. they're both bad.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:29
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Well, I just completed the other half of my bet. What bet you ask? I bet a coworker way back in October that if Donald Trump was the GOP nominee, that I would buy both him and I 'Make America Great Again' red trucker cap. Honestly, I don't feel like I've lost out here because this hat needs to be owned anyway as a memento of this crazy loving year.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:33
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I'm hoping that as the election draws near and people actually seriously consider what a Trump presidency would mean as a harsh reality rather than a hypothetical concept the swing voters will abandon him like crazed rats off a sinking ship. But who knows? This election is pretty much unique as elections get. Nobody even knows what the Republican party will look like after November. If it didn't matter so much I'd be enjoying the hell out of this but instead I'm absolutely loving terrified.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:36
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Boon posted:Well, I just completed the other half of my bet. What bet you ask? I bet a coworker way back in October that if Donald Trump was the GOP nominee, that I would buy both him and I 'Make America Great Again' red trucker cap. Lol I remember when you posted about that bet. I really love old-rear end campaign swag. I feel like I might have to buy a MAGA ballcap just to have one in thirty years if I'm still around.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:38
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Boon posted:Well, I just completed the other half of my bet. What bet you ask? I bet a coworker way back in October that if Donald Trump was the GOP nominee, that I would buy both him and I 'Make America Great Again' red trucker cap.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:38
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GalacticAcid posted:Lol I remember when you posted about that bet. As long as you don't wear it in public. I get the feeling that 30 years from now, someone wearing a MAGA cap would get the same reactions as someone wearing a George Wallace pin would get today.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:41
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Yeah I donated to Hillary once already and will probably look to drop a $50 with Doctors without Borders or something.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:43
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FlamingLiberal posted:Someone get Rosanne some help: Is this real? Is loving Rosanne referring to a Cold War nutzo CIA mind control project? What the gently caress is this life 
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Aug 27, 2016 06:43
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NH is not going red let alone by 14 points calm the hell down. It's a poo poo poll and was dumped along with a ton of other poo poo polls that included one where Clinton was ahead in Kentucky and within striking distance in Alabama. I don't know why Nate includes them on his aggregator but he does.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:44
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Pakled posted:As long as you don't wear it in public. I get the feeling that 30 years from now, someone wearing a MAGA cap would get the same reactions as someone wearing a George Wallace pin would get today. Oh god I know, I'd keep it filed away as a morbid curiosity.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:46
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:NH is not going red let alone by 14 points calm the hell down. It's a poo poo poll and was dumped along with a ton of other poo poo polls that included one where Clinton was ahead in Kentucky and within striking distance in Alabama. I don't know why Nate includes them on his aggregator but he does. And, in the case of NH anyway, the same pollster had another poll from July 29 - August 18, which is weighted less than 1/3 of the newer one, despite being only a week old and having a larger sample size
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Aug 27, 2016 06:50
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Mister Adequate posted:Honestly, as amusing as this is, I don't know if I can really blame this guy much. I probably wouldn't rock the boat either if near-millionaire Trump was my patient, I could gouge the poo poo out of him as well as getting my cool-rear end hairdo on TV. Yeah somehow that interview makes him seem endearing. Like he's just really in way over his head and bumbled along. He's probably a quack but his half-hearted explanation for why that letter is such a piece of poo poo is actually reasonable and just makes Trump look worse
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Aug 27, 2016 06:50
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Theris posted:That there are "swing voters" at all in the current US political climate is completely asinine. 16 years ago when Gore was running away from Clinton and picked Lieberman for VP while W was talking about "compassionate conservatism"? I could see someone with centrist views actually having a tough choice. But now, even without Trump involved, there is such a clear difference between the two parties that I have no idea how even a slightly politically aware voter might not know what party they're voting for well before the campaigns even start. You might want to take a seat Theris, I've got some bad news for you.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:51
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I plan on using it right now to counterbalance my apartment. One of the first things you see after walking in is this giant framed print from 2008 behind my desk in the living room.  So I'll put the Trump hat on the TV stand on the opposite side of the room, that way I can continue the illusion of impartiality and a general sense of confusion when I host classmates.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:53
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EwokEntourage posted:If you wanna be a teacher (or think you do) but don't want to get a teaching degree it is worth it First hand experience in teaching to decide if you want to do it, good resume building if you decide you don't. No I had planned to be a teacher regardless, long term. I wanted to do TFA to specifically try and find people who needed a teacher, after having finished my degree and licensure.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:53
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. I think Ipsos's state polls may just be parts of their national poll. Which means the sample sizes are going to be very very small.
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Aug 27, 2016 06:56
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GalacticAcid posted:Oh god I know, I'd keep it filed away as a morbid curiosity. Hang on to it, in a few decades there'll be a big market for MAGA caps just like authentic Nazi material is highly valuable these days
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Aug 27, 2016 07:00
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Hang on to it, in a few decades there'll be a big market for MAGA caps just like authentic Nazi material is highly valuable these days Too many of them are in circulation, the real money will be obscure poo poo like "Hillary sucks, but not like Monica" t-shirts and signed Dees prints
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Aug 27, 2016 07:04
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Yeah, and the cheap Chinese material probably won't last that long anyway
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Aug 27, 2016 07:09
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It's almost comical how many people I know that fit into the TFA stereotypes. I go to Columbia and so I know a bunch of Teachers College students and grads who are doing TFA and who have been placed into various schools around NYC. Without exception, they all plan on moving into policy work after their 2 years. Basically TFA funnels super privileged white people into minority schools just long enough to convince them that the students attending these schools are beyond hope and can't be "saved" (not to suggest that the students don't need help, but the white savior narrative is most definitely a thing) regardless of any institutional changes, at which point they leave the schools and move into positions where they could potentially make the necessary institutional changes (that they no longer believe will work or are worth trying)... and continue to perpetuate the problem. Meanwhile TFA gets cheap labor since no one ever builds up the years of experience that should result in a raise and doesn't really have to deal with teacher unions. TFA gets to talk up and advertise how amazing their teachers are because so many come from the Ivies and other elite colleges, despite a serious lack of experience and a total lack of those teachers in long term teaching outcomes at the schools they are sent to. TFA is a farce.
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Aug 27, 2016 07:11
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Necroskowitz posted:Why does REUTERS/IPSOS have Trump up by 14 in New Hampshire? That's a 15 point difference from their last poll a week or so ago. the pivot is upon us, dehumanize yourself and face to yoogeness
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Aug 27, 2016 07:13
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