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fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

Rofl

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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Friendly Humour posted:

My impression is that Arab countries have very similar military cultures and organization. Ie, the importance of 'face' among commanding officers that severely punishes failures and demands that commanders seem invincible, hence the tendency to blame others and inability to cop to your own mistakes and learn from them.

Oh look, literally the exact rhetoric people put on the Chinese.

the JJ
Mar 31, 2011

computer parts posted:

Oh look, literally the exact rhetoric people put on the Chinese.

Yeah, it's weird.

No siree bob this sure ain't racist bullshit generalizations dressed up by a lovely 'authoritative' article. I mean, sure, we're going to use the exact same terminology to describe people who live a whole continent apart but it's not generalizing at all.

Xerxes17
Feb 17, 2011

computer parts posted:

Oh look, literally the exact rhetoric people put on the Chinese.

They're not wrong there either??

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



It's about authoritarian regimes having similar problems due to focus on political reliability over competence. It doesn't need to be racist or orientalist. It is a trend, not a rule, and obviously there are exceptions. I think national/religious liberation movements tend to allow the best to rise to the top more effectively.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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computer parts posted:

Oh look, literally the exact rhetoric people put on the Chinese.

I'm not that well informed on Chinese military culture, but if you say so.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Friendly Humour posted:

I'm not that well informed on Chinese military culture, but if you say so.

Culture in general actually. The whole "face" thing is just a weird dogwhistle.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
The closer similarity between Arab armies and the PLA is that both are show forces primarily to quell internal dissent more than externally facing militaries.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

mother of the year right here

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Brother Friendship posted:

The entire war is an exercise in pissing away lives. From what I understand Iran essentially reforged the SAA once the rebels started receiving foreign backing by taking the vast stockpiles of armor and weaponry the SAA had accumulated and then dispersing them to various militias (NDF as a common force focused on local defense, Tigers as an elite force focused on key offensive and defensive actions). Combined with a legal decree that allowed private businessmen to create their own militias this swelled the numbers of fighters loyal to the regime but crippled its integrity as a cohesive armed force loyal to a central government because instead of the strict hierarchy of an army Iran replaced it something more analogous to the rebel forces, where small war bands control their own little fiefdoms and answer only nominally to the greater 'cause' to which they are pledged. Essentially what happened in both South Aleppo and Hama is that the local NDF charged with garrison duty failed in their duties to either prepare their defenses or hold them, which ripped a hole in Assad's lines and allowed the rebels to pour through. The only way to plug those holes is with the elite forces but that then exposes them to the casualties associated with front line fighting in contrast to their preferred method of using the NDF to hem in rebel forces and employ the elite soldiers only when victory can be assured through sheer advantage in firepower.

It's impossible for us to determine what the actual fighting strength is of any of these factions. All we can tell is that everyone involved in this fighting is bleeding heavily and it's up in the air to determine who can afford it the least. Personally, I think the elite forces are just beefed up versions of the NDF with unknown loyalties that may crack and bend in unexpected ways when compared to a truly professional force. The elite forces (Tiger, Air force intelligence, Republican Guard, Hezbollah forces and Iranian army) losing their high ranking officers is a sign that they may be suffering losses they cannot easily replace. They could be well trained and deeply experienced professionals and products of a completely different era of Syrian history and you can't just recreate that in in a training ground. The more of these men they lose the more the elite forces become like everyone else in the war.


It was Orwellion as gently caress to see the loyalist media try to sweep aside any mention of the division that got wiped out. "No, we suffered no losses in the road to Raqqa. That division never even existed." It's one thing to die fighting in a war, but it's another to have you death swept into a dustbin because someone hosed up.

You might like this:

http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2016/06/no-end-in-sight-failed-tabqa-offensive.html

The offensive was composed of multiple, if not dozens segregated militias that lacked a cohesive command structure and I don't think the regime lost its elite fores in the Taqba offensive. Instead what I think happened was that a failure to secure their perimeter allowed ISIS's own elite fighters to bring in SBVIEDS and tanks right next to regime lines. When the elite forces realized their position they loving booked it and left the regular NDF forces to their own devices. This then caused a panic that ultimately routed the offensive forces and pushed them back all the way past their original positions.

Could you imagine the marines abandoning army divisions in the middle of hostile territory like that? This is what I meant that the elite forces are just beefed up versions of the NDF and shouldn't be considered a regular professional force even if they are some of the most effective fighters in the war (any decent faction with material advantage and air supremacy can count itself as effective). I may be mistaken, but this may also be the most severe test of these units yet. Or at the very least in the past two years or since the outbreak of the revolution. Out of all the loyalist forces I would imagine that Hezbollah forces would fight as a the most professional and, if you saw some of the reports of out Southwest Aleppo as the rebels prepared for the breaking of the siege, you'd hear similar reports from the ground. The front would come under attack and only Hezbollah would hold its position, forcing them to suffer loses and still have to retreat under adverse conditions because the other fighters weren't strong enough to stand under fire. This is the key flaw in the loyalist strategy that allowed the rebels to creep so close to Aleppo in the first place.

That article a few pages back makes forces like the Tigers seem like a random collection of random Army, local toughs, and criminals almost as likely to attack their own (or make a buck by selling to their enemies) as attack the rebels, and SAA HQ is holding onto them by the skin of their teeth. Good article, btw.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

1stGear posted:

Looking on syriancivilwarmap.com, any idea what the rationale behind the recent Daesh offensive near Al-Ra'i is? Are they just picking someone they can beat up?

Ikasuhito posted:

I would say its more of a counterattack than an offensive. IS needs to have the Turkish border open to them so they can smuggle troops, supplies and oil across to keep the war effort going. As such its very important that they keep control of as much of the border as they can for as long as they can. It is an attack of necessity and desperation.
I'd say it's some of both. ISIL definitely needs to keep the border open, and it's the "squeeze ball" effect where ISIL goes after the weakest force; in this case the weakest force on the border is the FSA in Al Rai.

Other news: okay, so yesterday Liwa al-Tahrir, one of the FSA groups in the SDF, apparently decided that Turkey was a better option than the SDF:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/771636237627035648

quote:

Liwa al-Tahrir announced that it would leave the YPG-led SDF due to the group's policies and called for remodel of the coalition

https://twitter.com/archicivilians/status/771700210150076416

quote:

After 2 days of tensions, Liwaa al-Tahrir defected from #SDF and joined #FSA's Euphrates Shield in #Jarablus.

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/771645087390380032

quote:

50 militants from Liwa al-Tahrir are reportedly in Jarablus after defecting from SDF
As this was happening, there were also rumors of similar issues/clashes between the YPG and Liwa Ahrar Raqqa (not to be confused with Liwa Thuwar Raqqa), and that the YPG had removed Liwa Ahrar Raqqa from five villages near Ayn Issa.

However, today this video was released:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/771972744774717440

quote:

Liwa Ahrar Raqqa leader releases video denying reports of clashes/defections from SDF
That said, this probably isn't the last time we're going to see tensions between FSA groups and YPG groups in the SDF. Turkey is probably pushing very hard behind the scenes to convince FSA groups in the SDF to jump ship and join the "Euphrates Shield".

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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computer parts posted:

Culture in general actually. The whole "face" thing is just a weird dogwhistle.

And you're the dog then, come bark us up for daring to mention culture. Keep it up mate, you keep us all on the right path.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Friendly Humour posted:

And you're the dog then, come bark us up for daring to mention culture. Keep it up mate, you keep us all on the right path.

Truly the Eastern Hordes are incomprehensible.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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That's racist...

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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I'm starting to think this road of yours might take us to rather uncomfortable places.

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Let's take the road less traveled.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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Hell, it was about time for another picture montage!

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
I noticed something in a new TOW video from Hama.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZmOpiPtNSI

It seems that the soldiers standing to the right of the ZSU that is being targeted are in fact posts with uniforms on them. This seems to either be an attempt at countering TOWs, or more dire for the regime, a force multiplier to hide a lack of manpower.



ass struggle fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Sep 3, 2016

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

computer parts posted:

Culture in general actually. The whole "face" thing is just a weird dogwhistle.

TIL:culture is a racist construct

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Kurtofan posted:

TIL:culture is a racist construct

Saying "The Arab is militarily impotent because he values face over victory" is racist.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/772127921511071744

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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Can't post for 10 years!
So did the FSA break off the attack against SDF before taking on Daesh or is that still going on?

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

rear end struggle posted:

I noticed something in a new TOW video from Hama.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZmOpiPtNSI

It seems that the soldiers standing to the right of the ZSU that is being targeted are in fact posts with uniforms on them. This seems to either be an attempt at countering TOWs, or more dire of the regime, a force multiplier to hide a lack of manpower.





Jesus Christ. There's obviously more of those "fake soldiers", especially surrounding the ZSU, because when it explodes, there's posts sent flying. The ruse obviously would only work once, because it seems any explosion would blow the uniform off the post. Any idea what type of position this is? Like perimeter defense, checkpoint, etc.? Defensive position inflating their numbers is a really bad sign.

computer parts posted:

Saying "The Arab is militarily impotent because he values face over victory" is racist.

Yep. Pop quiz: Which country did the world leader who declared "peace with honor" upon signing a war-ending treaty belong to?

Big clue, it wasn't an Arabic one.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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Why would you put an AFV in the middle of decoys meant to draw fire :psyduck:

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Friendly Humour posted:

Why would you put an AFV in the middle of decoys meant to draw fire :psyduck:

They're there to make the position look more threatening, not draw fire.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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Somebody should probably tell the SAA that's not how decoys work in the age of gunpowder

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



I mean if you don't have anything there to fire back with the ruse falls apart quickly.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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Quicker than the ZSU?

DesperateDan
Dec 10, 2005

Where's my cow?

Is that my cow?

No it isn't, but it still tramples my bloody lavender.
If it works even a few times, uselessly expended hostile tow's for the cost of a few uniforms- it's not a bad exchange. It's hardly clausewitz but not exactly abu hajaar level either.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Whatever the attempt it didn't do to much good. Here looks to be the same position a bit later.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j8vGQhwbdM

Friendly Humour posted:

I don't think that particular missile was uselessly expended. Or was it? Idk, but that looks like a working ZSU to me. Maybe they were asking for directions.

It was firing in the first video so it was real.

Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Sep 3, 2016

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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I don't think that particular missile was uselessly expended. Or was it? Idk, but that looks like a working ZSU to me. Maybe they were asking for directions.

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

Wow. This is an old warfare trick,but it's usually meant to draw sniper fire. Putting your BGM in the middle of them is dumb and stupid. I'd love to know what those guys were saying at the end.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Young Freud posted:

Jesus Christ. There's obviously more of those "fake soldiers", especially surrounding the ZSU, because when it explodes, there's posts sent flying. The ruse obviously would only work once, because it seems any explosion would blow the uniform off the post. Any idea what type of position this is? Like perimeter defense, checkpoint, etc.? Defensive position inflating their numbers is a really bad sign.

This is point 50, basically the last strong point before Qomhana, which is the last town between rebels and Hamah

Friendly Humour posted:

I don't think that particular missile was uselessly expended. Or was it? Idk, but that looks like a working ZSU to me. Maybe they were asking for directions.

The ZSU is in fact real and firing in the video. So force multiplication seems more likely.

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Friendly Humour posted:

Quicker than the ZSU?

I mean an assault on the position.

I'm obviously no military expert, but I'd imagine completely fictitious positions would fall apart after just a few minutes of observations.

I would think you only use those to bait air power since it's much harder to judge whether a site is active or not from the air.

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
hey im doing a short paper as part of the intro to course im taking on the history of the Arab and Muslim world.

We're talking about modern Orientalism/Islamaphobia and holy poo poo it's hitting me just now how much poo poo I can think of off the top my head that's happened recently that are big examples of islamaphobia.

-the way the media portrayed a lot of happenings during the arab spring
-the rightwing/general media reaction the iran nuclear deal
-the iran-naval boat incident with the captured sailors and the reaction surrounding it
-the media coverage of the benghazi consulate attack and the resulting fallout and misinformation campaign
-donald trumps entire presidential campaign
-the entire rnc
-the recent murder of a lebanese man in tulsa
-the media coverage of the orlando nightclub massacre
-authorities dragging their feet on a florida mosque being burnt down being arson/a hate crime

i could literally go on

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Ikasuhito posted:

Whatever the attempt it didn't do to much good. Here looks to be the same position a bit later.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j8vGQhwbdM

Filmed from another perspective. That big section from 30 seconds to 1:12 is the rebels fighting against ths ZSU gun, which surprisingly doesn't seem to get a bead on them.

I'm certain, at 40 seconds in, you see the TOW screaming past.

54.4 crowns
Apr 7, 2011

To think before you speak is like wiping your arse before you shit.

rear end struggle posted:

I noticed something in a new TOW video from Hama.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZmOpiPtNSI

It seems that the soldiers standing to the right of the ZSU that is being targeted are in fact posts with uniforms on them. This seems to either be an attempt at countering TOWs, or more dire of the regime, a force multiplier to hide a lack of manpower.





Good eye.

It makes sense to put up a a tempting dummy targets to make the rebels waste ammo and opportunity then start looking for smoke, but not next to a real and even more tempting target.

But conscripting Quakers and their weapons to the front line have almost allways been a sure indicator of the amount of poo poo your army is in.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Kurtofan posted:

TIL:culture is a racist construct

Culture as an immutable and essential quality of an ethnic or national group, that is of primary importance in explaining the behavior of individuals of such groups, is a racist construct, yes

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 22:13 on Sep 3, 2016

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Friendly Humour posted:

Why would you put an AFV in the middle of decoys meant to draw fire :psyduck:

Maybe it's just laundry day, you racist.

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lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
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I am so horribly racist towards the Arab military culture if makea me poo poo TOWs and post soldiers

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