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Feldegast42 posted:You know people keep going on about this magical oppo file that will nuke Trump off the map but how true is that? Trump has been a public figure that has been openly campaigning for a year and a half now. He was a public figure BEFORE he ran for president. The press has (incompetently) scrutinized him. Bloggers have gone over all his skeletons. What out there hasn't been touched that only Clinton's campaign would have access to? Well, as the Democratic candidate she'd have gobs of connections that we wouldn't. Even if somehow you or I were at the same political shindig event as Clinton or one of her Wall Street or DC buddies (or just someone with some juicy info) they woudn't be walking up to us or one of our staffers going "Psst, hey got some real dirt on Trump..." A lot of people will want to make sure Hillary's arsenal is well stocked out of spite, or trying to earn favors with the Clintons, or simply because they don't want to take any chance an anthropomorphic orange becomes the most powerful fruit in the world. There's also the fact that unlike you or I Clinton is a lawyer herself, and has a staff of lawyers and accountants to dig through mountains of data and legalese for niggling details to pick at until stuff starts to unravel. Trump has a slime trail of poo poo a mile wide and 40+ years long. You bet there's a giant oppo file on Trump. Weather or not it will do more damage than using the stuff Trump gives for free remains to be seen, the stuff he shouts daily is comically effective at torpedoing his own chances, but expect to see some interesting stuff during the debates and in the final weeks leading to the election.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:24
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Petr posted:Oh this? This is just a globalist star! Who's the real racist now? Interesting avatar/post combo. 
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Sep 4, 2016 03:28
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I posted this earlier: it's Donald loving Trump. I'd be surprised if one of the countless skeletons in his closet wasn't a hooker. Dude won't even release his tax returns.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:36
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Feldegast42 posted:Silent Majority What the gently caress, why are people talking about the silent majority (in caps lol) and triangulation in 2016?
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Sep 4, 2016 03:38
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vseslav.botkin posted:Didn't an oppo file get dumped with the DNC hack? No big shockers in that as I recall. That file was clearly not the complete report and was basically the "trump dirty facts cheat sheet" with citations on all the regular horrible poo poo we have already heard. But remember Trump denied Black renters housing in violation of federal law, Clinton brought the up and the media ignores it while praising Trump for visiting a Black church.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:43
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Petr posted:What the gently caress, why are people talking about the silent majority (in caps lol) and triangulation in 2016? Trump resurrected it.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:43
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Petr posted:What the gently caress, why are people talking about the silent majority (in caps lol) and triangulation in 2016? Because Bill Clinton circa 1994 and Hillary Clinton circa 2016 are literally the same person doing the same things regardless of context or anything else.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:44
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DemeaninDemon posted:I posted this earlier: it's Donald loving Trump. I'd be surprised if one of the countless skeletons in his closet wasn't a hooker. Dude won't even release his tax returns. Donald doesn't strike me as the hooker type, he prefers the slightly more indirect method of just finding a gorgeous woman and buying her poo poo until she fucks him.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:44
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Wouldn't be shocked to see the oppo research get used at the debates more than anything. Trump "debates" by word salami and using his witty monikers and Hillary can just throw something back at him. Since Trump has Kanye levels of self control, he'll get all pissed off and yell about things and derail himself. At least that assumes the Clinton camp is as shrewd/prudent as one would hope. The media is desperate for a horse race narrative that Trump has already won the debate, but it makes it a hell of a lot more difficult to claim he won when your soundbites are a doddering old man yelling his "best words" being an odd skin color combination of red and orange
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Sep 4, 2016 03:44
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Sir Tonk posted:Having Mark Cuban and Bloomberg out there clowning on Trump's wealth has been surprisingly effective at pissing him off. I'd certainly be all for more billionaires calling Trump a piece of poo poo poor.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:48
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Feldegast42 posted:You know people keep going on about this magical oppo file that will nuke Trump off the map but how true is that? The oppo file just reads "He is literally Donald Trump lmao" It's all they need.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:49
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Yinlock posted:The oppo file just reads "He is literally Donald Trump lmao"
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Sep 4, 2016 03:50
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What do some of y'all think about the chances of Gary Johnson siphoning off more votes than usual for a third party candidate? Out of all the demographics he could be competing for with Clinton, I'm guessing that the white college-educated vote up for grabs is most vulnerable since those people seem most susceptible to the "deregulate everything" nonsense Johnson peddles over Jill Stein,
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Sep 4, 2016 03:52
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WampaLord posted:Donald doesn't strike me as the hooker type, he prefers the slightly more indirect method of just finding a gorgeous woman and buying her poo poo until she fucks him. I'm waiting for one of his fashion model imports to come forward with a sex scandal
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Sep 4, 2016 03:52
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Kilroy posted:It's all they've used so far, and he is steadily chipping away at her lead. Yes, her crushing, almost-400-electoral-vote lead. Here's a map of the states a party has won for the last five election cycles in a row. Republicans require just short of a landslide just to squeak out a win. Trump can't achieve results like that. 
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Sep 4, 2016 03:55
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Kilroy posted:It's all they've used so far, and he is steadily chipping away at her lead. Also steadily chipping away at any progress he ever makes
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Sep 4, 2016 03:55
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Kilroy posted:It's all they've used so far, and he is steadily chipping away at her lead. Actually Clinton has brought up a ton of oppo research poo poo, just no one in the media cares to hold Trump to account for any of it. They brought up the small businesses he stole from, the history of housing discrimination, the failed businesses, the fraudulent "university", his refusal to distance himself from the Klan, his white supremist followers, his campaign's ties to Putin, his hateful statements about women and minorities, his past contradictory policy positions, the fact his campaign is staffed by the alt-right and that he has small hands. What critical oppo research topic did they miss?
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Sep 4, 2016 03:57
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fool_of_sound posted:Yes, her crushing, almost-400-electoral-vote lead. Iowa might go red but it's just as likely that Georgia goes blue. Everything else on that map is absolutely solid.
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Sep 4, 2016 03:58
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Yeah, she's almost certain to win, good on ya'll continuing to point that out. It's better for America and especially people in America who aren't white, if Donald Trump's candidacy ends in a "dustbin of history" blowout that liberals can throw at conservatives like a loving pie to the face for the next few decades, like Reagan / Mondale. It's not enough that she holds on to her lead and wins with EVs in the low 300s.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:00
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Kilroy posted:It's all they've used so far, and he is steadily chipping away at her lead. No he isn't. It's really tiring people say this. Trump has no gained any significant support in quite some time. Any loss Clinton has is not going to Trump. It's going to a third party or undecided. If Trump starts to gain, actually gain, then it is significant. As it stands Clinton's point-losing appears to be more her own issue, not people flocking to Donald Trump. (Or more likely it's a bounce receding.)
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Sep 4, 2016 04:04
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It's hilarious to see him rail against the media because they are basically the only thing keeping the bastard alive.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:04
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DemeaninDemon posted:I posted this earlier: it's Donald loving Trump. I'd be surprised if one of the countless skeletons in his closet wasn't a hooker. Dude won't even release his tax returns. Pence just went off the reservation and claimed he will: https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...d06c_story.html
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Sep 4, 2016 04:09
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Kobayashi posted:I really hope people aren't pinning their hopes on "opposition research" outdoing a weeklong feud with a gold star family, or the fact that a literal pay-to-play scheme completely failed to resonate. Trump will be Trump's own destruction. Clinton can fan flames and perhaps bait him into doing something stupid, but there is absolutely nothing her campaign can dig up that will alter the narrative of the campaign. Yeah for real, all she has to do is what she did for the alt-right speech. Bring it all up together and remind people of how much bullshit he's pulled off in just the past year.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:10
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Kilroy posted:Mark Cuban must near the top, or at the top, of Donald Trump's poo poo list. He is in a lot of ways what Donald Trump likes to pretend he is (good at business, self-made as Republicans typically define it, etc), and is taken more seriously than he can ever hope to be by the Serious People Donald Trump has had a hate-crush on for his entire life. I want to watch the reality show where Mark Cuban and Donald Trump are forced to live together for three months. It's too bad Schwarzenegger took over The Apprentice and not Cuban.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:12
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Trabisnikof posted:Actually Clinton has brought up a ton of oppo research poo poo, just no one in the media cares to hold Trump to account for any of it. It's all awful stuff, but it's stuff we already knew and it's stuff his supporters knew before they voted for him. It doesn't demoralize them, by all indications. You want the media to just remind people of the same poo poo over and over until they get it, but that's not their job and anyway it makes for lovely TV. One thing the GOP has been really "good" at this election is constantly reheating the same poo poo fooling the media into thinking it's new poo poo that they can report on, e.g. emails. The Clinton campaign should be doing the same thing, like insinuating maybe David Duke's and Trumps ties go a little deeper than we thought because his cousin's boyfriend read My Awakening, or some reheated poo poo about Trump U, or oh hey look here is some new recordings of him on Howard Stern that we thought were lost (they were never lost), or get someone who was actually denied housing back in the 70s up there, and so on. You're not going to create a narrative by going "oh hey here's some stuff that happened, well, bye" because that relies on the media doing their loving job, but all the media is good for is getting your surrogates in front of a camera and printing your press releases. Maybe Hillary should act like she knows this. Kilroy fucked around with this message at 04:18 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 04:15
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Bernie, Bill, and Kaine are all going to be making speeches for Hillary this coming week. They've got Obama, Warren, and Hilldawg herself waiting in the wings. Hillary's campaign team knows what they are doing. Meanwhile Trump has yet to open a campaign office in North Carolina.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:17
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I'm sure Clinton has tons of oppo research on Trump but it doesn't really matter, and it doesn't need to. Trump's gaffes are so constant and outrageous that any oppo dumps would just get lost in the steady stream of "Trump did a thing". Clinton is better off running a positive campaign and letting Trump's campaign gaffes add up on their own.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:20
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Kilroy posted:Basically all that stuff is pre-convention if not a lot earlier, and the media mostly doesn't give a poo poo because it's not "news" in the sense that there is nothing new to cover here. Anyone who cared to know, knew about the housing discrimination since the 90s, knew about his failed businesses since the first Bush administration, knew about the Trump U stuff since the GOP primary was still competitive, knew about his refusal to distance himself from the KKK when he refused to distance himself from the leader of the KKK back in January, knew Manafort was a Putin stooge and Trump has a weird crush on a Russian dictator, knew about his hateful statements since the first time he went on Howard Stern at least, and so on. The Clinton campaign has been doing exactly what you think they should start doing. The problem is that is doesn't get the media coverage you think it would. They've gotten the literal business owners who Trump shorted to talk about it and all it got was crickets. They got new recordings of Trump saying sexist poo poo on tape, crickets. When they tried to push the " manaford is linked to the Russians story" the medi did react, by calling it fearmongering from the Clinton camp.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:22
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I'd also say that Clinton's ads have been quite good. That one with people reading Breitbart headlines was terrific. It forces straight ticket voters to own up to their implied Trump support and might actually drive down turnout for the top of the ticket. I'm not convinced that it'll fully depress House/Senate votes for the GOP, but it certainly is doing its job of shaming habitual GOP voters.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:34
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WampaLord posted:Donald doesn't strike me as the hooker type, he prefers the slightly more indirect method of just finding a gorgeous woman and buying her poo poo until she fucks him. Trump's more the "I'm going to gently caress this underaged model and threaten to murder her family if she speaks out" kinda guy IMO. Kilroy posted:It's all they've used so far, and he is steadily chipping away at her lead. No he isn't. Her support's dropping back down but he's still running face-first in to the same support ceiling he's always had. Maybe if he kept attacking the Kahns and other military families until November Clinton would've kept an 8-10 point lead but without nuclear fuckups like that she's still held back by people buying decades of propaganda. fool_of_sound posted:Yes, her crushing, almost-400-electoral-vote lead. The fun thing with this map is that VA is next to impossible for Trump to win. It was trending towards Clinton already and Tim Kaine is going to easily give her another 1-2 points there. The odds she doesn't take OH or FL (or both) is lower than Trump winning North Carolina at this point.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:35
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Evil Fluffy posted:The fun thing with this map is that VA is next to impossible for Trump to win. It was trending towards Clinton already and Tim Kaine is going to easily give her another 1-2 points there. The odds she doesn't take OH or FL (or both) is lower than Trump winning North Carolina at this point. Also going back five elections doesn't reflect the new reality that states like Colorado and New Mexico are pretty much Dem locks by this point, to the degree that they barely even get polled because polls show Clinton up by ~10 points. Take that map, put Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico in the blue pile, and Clinton has already won without even needing any of the real swing states.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:45
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I think having a period of double-digit leads have spoiled us, though I hope Hillary supporters don't rest on their laurels here.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:47
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Sir Tonk posted:I'd also say that Clinton's ads have been quite good. That one with people reading Breitbart headlines was terrific. I still want them to remake Daisy since they already did confessions of a republican
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Sep 4, 2016 04:47
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Obama would have killed to have this much of a lead in the first week of September.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:50
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iospace posted:I think having a period of double-digit leads have spoiled us, though I hope Hillary supporters don't rest on their laurels here. It's this. Hillary unfortunately won't win a huge landslide victory because of both increased polarization and the simple fact that Republicans by and large won the narrative war for the last forty years. That Hillary loving Clinton is doing as well as she is, is a testament to how much better organized Democratic campaigning has gotten thanks to Obama. There's a lot of structural and demographic hurdles to overcome in this particular election for Dems, even if in the future it will be easier.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:52
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Trabisnikof posted:I still want them to remake Daisy since they already did confessions of a republican Look up the kids watching TV ad. It's close. Lightning Knight posted:It's this. I can potentially see a PV landslide, but We'll probably end up with Obama 2012 with NC flipping because of their governor pissing off the democrats something fierce.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:55
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iospace posted:Look up the kids watching TV ad. It's close. Obama 12+NC is a landslide still.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:56
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Lightning Knight posted:Hillary unfortunately won't win a huge landslide victory because of both increased polarization and the simple fact that Republicans by and large won the narrative war for the last forty years. I still have hope/thoughts that a landslide might be achieved. I think the debates will give her a significant bump, even if the media narrative after the first one is "Trump didn't poo poo himself or call her a bitch, it's a tie!" There are three debates, and by the time the third one is done, there will be a shitload of clips of Trump getting owned or him saying poo poo that is unbelievably stupid/awful. I also think third party support will dry up as election day looms and people realize "Oh poo poo, this really is an election with consequences and not just a way for me to claim to be a smarter person by voting third party" as it has in every recent previous election. And finally, Trump underperformed his polling in the primary. I expect that underperformance to be even larger in the general due to the absolute lack of ground game. I think she wins every Obama 2012 state, plus NC, possibly AZ and GA as well.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:58
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DemeaninDemon posted:Obama 12+NC is a landslide still. Fine, we won't be seeing a 1988 level of landslide.
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Sep 4, 2016 04:59
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iospace posted:Fine, we won't be seeing a 1988 level of landslide. I don't think an 84/88 level EC landslide is even possible anymore. Like the second coming of Christ would have trouble breaking 400 EVs vs resurrected Literal Hitler. Both because of polarization and because the media would spend more time talking about Jesus' emails than the Holocaust.
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Sep 4, 2016 05:08
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