Trapezium Dave posted:

Hillary might be risk adverse and go full policy wonk but it seems obvious to me that the better approach is to repeatedly kick Trump in the ego until he fully melts down.

At least I hope that's what she does, it will make great television.

Tom Guycot posted:

Personally I can't see any way for Trump to improve his standing with white women. His numbers are so bad he's losing across virtually every single segment of the white women vote by large margins. The only single place he's ahead is his strongest group, folks without higher education, and even then he's like 1 point ahead. He is absolutely dismal with women as a whole of course, but even white women. The absolutely best bet I can see for Trump is just not making things worse for himself, which is a tall order. If he can walk away without acting like such an egregious sexist bully, to the woman across from him, that will probably leave him where he started, but thats the best case scenario I can see.

Whats much more likely in my mind is Trump does Trump and further alienates women when he is debating one, one on one, by being dismissive, demeaning, and talking over her. Trump can talk his way around making men believe he's not a sexist shitbag, just like he's been talking his way around making whites think he's not racist (or at least giving an excuse they can tell themselves). Though much like the majority of minorities see right through his obvious bullshit on race, I think women clearly see what kind of massive pig he is, and has been for decades, which the polls show.

I just don't see any scenario where Donald loving Trump, and all the horrible things he's said about women, or done to women, over the years will ever, ever be able to make up that slack.

Lightning Knight posted:

And I think the media will pretty definitely try to twist the narrative to be favorable to Trump because they're spineless hacks. Thus what I'm attempting to say, largely, is that the thread shouldn't flip its collective poo poo when CS comes in the day after the debates with about twenty headlines along the lines of "oh wow, Trump was so presidential!" and the polls move a point or two away from Hillary.

deadkiller615 posted:

Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207

Politico posted:

“He only became a Republican after he began to get all those jobs from them,” his mother, Helen Giuliani, would say in 1988, as only moms can. “He’s definitely not a conservative Republican. He thinks he is, but he isn’t. He still feels very sorry for the poor.”

Tom Guycot posted:

Oh, no question. I agree wholeheartedly the media will be spewing that the moment its over, I just don't think the polls will reflect much of a change.

FAUXTON posted:

Keep in mind she hired a psychologist onto the debate prep crew for the presumable purpose of surgically pissing Trump off.

Lightning Knight posted:

That's actually rather hilarious.

Also not really counter to what I'm saying. I expect Hillary will do great in the debates. Full stop. I just also think Joe Blow Average American won't appreciate how qualified she is, and how unqualified Trump is, because Hillary can be a brilliant consummate politician deserving of the job of leader of the goddamned free world and your average jackass will still find "make America great again (by kicking out all the non-white people)" compelling.

I don't think Trump will gain a meaningful share of the vote that way, but I also think Hillary's performance on the debate stage, no matter how well she does, will not be appreciated by most non-politically active Americans. I'm positing the notion that Hillary has a ceiling on how well the American public will perceive her debate performance, no matter how well she actually does. While Trump has a floor. That blows, but it's not enough to swing the election. Though it is possibly enough to make certain posters go through an extra bottle of anxiety meds.

Note that I really really want to be proven wrong. I'm just being the pessimist, for our purposes.

Edit: I'll be perfectly honest, Donald Trump could probably say the n-word or another equally vile slur on the debate stage and the media would probably still bend over backwards to justify his existence as the Republican presidential nominee. His bar is set so goddamn low that nothing would surprise me anymore.

FAUXTON posted:

I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it.

FAUXTON posted:

I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it.

computer parts posted:

And my point is the job function of the driver doesn't really change with automation.

There's still going to have to be a dude who is certified to drive a big truck, has to be with said truck at all times, and has to keep an eye on the road in case something fucks up.

FAUXTON posted:

I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it.

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

What if they just put him on downers again

Spaced God posted:

I don't like living in a world where we have to put what loving TV shows/movies the politician is famous for before their affiliation/state.

Ventura (WWE) I-Minn
Schwarzenegger (Terminator) R-California

deadkiller615 posted:

Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207

Lightning Knight posted:

That's actually rather hilarious.

Also not really counter to what I'm saying. I expect Hillary will do great in the debates. Full stop. I just also think Joe Blow Average American won't appreciate how qualified she is, and how unqualified Trump is, because Hillary can be a brilliant consummate politician deserving of the job of leader of the goddamned free world and your average jackass will still find "make America great again (by kicking out all the non-white people)" compelling.

QuarkJets posted:

If the polls are any indicator, Joe Blow Average American is a Clinton supporter. Trump's supporters are below average.

Lightning Knight posted:

Haha he looks like the cover of a Goosebumps book in that picture. I also love the casualness with which his own mother owns him for being an rear end in a top hat:

ImpAtom posted:

Pointing out Obama is inexperienced is fine. Using the awful shot of "he'll get your children killed" is disgusting. There's a reason it's in the same 'effective' category as Swift Boat Veterans and the like. It being effective doesn't make it not disgusting.

McAlister posted:

Raenir Salazar posted:

The emphasis on Self-Driving cars (Autos seems to be the going term) is that it will have the single largest visible effect on the labour force as there's something like 30 million jobs world wide that could vanish* in an extremely short amount of time as soon as insurance companies give the green light.

*Or as other say, becomes a minimum wage position.

I'm reminded of how in The Expanse the Earth United Nations government seems to have some sort of tiered Min-Income social safety net probably as a result of what we see today.

Xae posted:

I don't think it will be in a short period of time.


For one, trucks are expensive. The average fleet age is like 10-15 years. Even if it doubled the rate of sales you're still talking about 10-15 years.

Two, drivers often do more than just drive. Often times they will help load or unload. My father has a retirement job "driving" for a farm equipment dealership. A large part of what he does is picking up equipment for repair or sometimes even repairing some of the stuff on the spot.

The most likely scenario is that we will see a gradual phase out of driving/trucking jobs over decades, not a cataclysmic mass lay off of tens of millions of people.

Rick_Hunter posted:

That wasn't my intent. It was more to say that even Gen Xers that were on during the MTV heydays eventually sold out and became FYGM Republican. Hell, Kennedy is a Fox News contributor.

McAlister posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yr7odFUARg

Paul MaudDib posted:

10-15 years is a really short time period for 30 million jobs to vanish. For the record, the Great Recession only vaporized 8.7 million jobs over about 2 years, so factoring in associated job-loss we're roughly talking about roughly the same rate of job loss as the Great Recession only lasting 10-15 years instead of 2 years.

The only thing worse than a short period of rapid job loss is multiple decades of rapid job loss.

quote:

On the weekend traditionally reserved to honor workers' rights, faculty at the Brooklyn campus of Long Island University have been locked out of their jobs and barred from campus by an administration that is fighting them over salary, job security and adjunct faculty rights. As part of the lockout, faculty also lose their salaries and health insurance. The move is highly unusual in higher education, and may be unprecedented.

Despite that, classes will start without several hundred LIU faculty members on Sept. 7. Administrators have hired "strikebreakers" to replace them, and have assigned staff from within their own ranks to teach from syllabi that were posted on Blackboard over the summer.

2011 LIU job actionFaculty are outraged, says Jessica Rosenberg, president of the campus chapter of the Long Island University Faculty Federation. But they're also fearful, facing what amounts to unemployment until the contract can be resolved. For Gloria Wilsson, a health science librarian and a single mother of three, losing health insurance is especially scary; she depends on it to care for a daughter with a neurological disorder. She was shocked when she found out about the lockout. "I didn't think it would get this bad," she says.

"The administration is leveraging all this pressure on people so that they'll vote their contract up and bust the union," says Rosenberg. The campus, which once had five unions, is down to just three, and all of them are working without a contract. LIUFF, a New York State United Teachers/AFT affiliate, represents full-time and adjunct faculty there.

The Brooklyn Faculty Senate has submitted an official complaint to the Middle States Commission on Higher Education, according to LIUFF, alleging noncompliance with accreditation standards around shared governance, integrity and academic practices. Several elected officials from Brooklyn urged the college administration to work with the union last spring. And students on an online forum have protested that at a college with a substantial reputation and a relatively high tuition, they want experienced, prepared faculty in class—the faculty who have been locked out—not substitutes.

The union is seeking to address a historical salary disparity between faculty at the Brooklyn campus of LIU who are, overall, paid far less than their counterparts at LIU Long Island.

Coincidentally, Brooklyn serves a more diverse student body, whose tuition is the same as tuition on Long Island. Other disputed contract issues include "onerous changes" to post-tenure review and draconian proposals that would further exploit part-time adjunct faculty, including the elimination of a trust fund for healthcare and a seniority fund that makes modest payments to long-serving adjuncts.

Contract negotiations have been underway since spring, but movement has been minimal. Another session is scheduled for Sept. 8.

"We are going to seek resolution," says Rosenberg. "That's our charge, and that's what we're trying to do. But we're not going to allow ourselves to be bullied and intimidated by an administration that has shown no respect for the work that we do."

- See more at: http://www.aft.org/news/faculty-face-labor-day-lockout-long-island-university#sthash.3GKdkc72.dpuf

quote:

[...]
“We’ve been bargaining in good faith and we continue to bargain,” said LIUFF president Jessica Rosenberg. “We had planned to bring their last best final offer to the membership for a ratifying vote on the 31st and they pre-empted that by informing us we were going to be locked out, and immediately after they locked us out they cut healthcare, salary, and access to email and students.”

“They’re putting economic pressure on the faculty,” said Pollitt. Some faculty say economic pressure as a tool and a fixation on economics generally has defined LIU president Kimberly Cline’s administration. It began the summer of 2013, before she officially assumed the role of president in September, when according to Rosenberg, hundreds of low- and mid-level administrative support staff, many of them longterm employees, either left or were laid off. During Cline’s first meeting with the faculty senate, she denied any role in this. “The basic thrust of her administration has been to accrue a surplus budget, and she has done that only by firing people,” says Deborah Mutnick, a professor of English and a member of the union executive committee.

When Cline arrived, the school was in bad shape financially, its credit rating approaching junk status. Mutnick points out that when Leon Botstein, then president of Bard College, found himself in the same position, he essentially said ‘so what?’ Botstein was far more concerned with the school’s ability to be a force for public good than its credit rating. “Cline and the LIU board of trustees have had the opposite view: that the primary goal of the university is to improve its credit rating,” said Mutnick. “We feel like we’re the poster child for austerity and neoliberalism in higher education. She wants to corporatize and monetize the university—she wants to turn us into a candy store, and she’s alienated everybody.”

This ‘everybody’ includes four other unions—secretaries and clerks; carpenters; engineers and maintenance workers, and janitorial staff—who have all been working without a contract since 2012, before Cline arrived. “Since then, two of those unions have been outsourced—they’re not even our employees anymore,” says Rosenberg. There has also been heavy turnover in deans at both campuses. In July of this year New York City public advocate Letitia James sent Cline a letter advising her to sign contracts with all four unions and warning her that hiring replacement workers for the fifth—faculty—“will only exacerbate your troubled relationship with labor in New York City.”

https://www.thenation.com/article/classes-start-at-liu-brooklyn-on-september-7-but-faculty-are-locked-out/

Axetrain posted:

Speaking of Wallace, Bill Clinton taking him to task for his lovely interview questions is always a good watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Dd2Xhm2mIE

Raenir Salazar posted:

Wow gently caress Wallace. Is he even remotely better now?

deadkiller615 posted:

Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207

Defenestration posted:

While we discuss automation, LIU has locked out its faculty. On labor day.

Their contract expired August 31st, but they are not striking. 400 Professors wanted to work and were scheduled to vote on the new contract offer and instead LIU deactivated their emails and canceled their health insurance with no notice. Tenured faculty included. LIU then laughably assigned geriatric Deans to teach classes like dance and yoga. (To say nothing of complicated intellectual subjects.) Their excuse is that they promised students they would cap tuition hikes at 2%, and they can't afford to pay faculty at the Brooklyn campus equal wages as the faculty on the Long Island campus. (Guess what the demographics are of the Brooklyn campus vs LI)


The Nation also covered this. Looks like the University President Kimberly Cline is a proven strikebreaker who is austerity-ing the university into the ground. Tuition remains in the 40 thousands.


I don't know much about the negotiations themselves, but here's the current counteroffer (which LIU had to announce via twitter since they deactivated everyone's emails.
http://liu.edu/offer

Josef bugman posted:

Oh and earlier, when people were talking about the whole situation in the BRICS countries? Could the fact that they are suffering kind of impact the world economy considering how integrated we are all supposed to be?

Sir Tonk posted:

it just gets better every time


Wallace's thing is to be the adult at FN. He calls out GOP politicians from time to tim and gets very upset if you call him right wing, but he's still controlled by Ailes (well, was until recently).

He's also the son of Mike Wallace.

FAUXTON posted:

Keep in mind she hired psychologists onto the debate prep crew for the presumable purpose of surgically pissing Trump off.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/08/donald-trump-wont-prepare-for-the-debates.html

Boon posted:

Okay but that doesn't address the downward wage pressure unless you think that having someone 'certified' to sit in the truck is going to net them the same pay, in which case then

quote:

Also, your theory has a lifespan. Immediate impacts will be limited but as time progresses, technology improves, and regulations lessen, that impact is only going to be more pronounced. We're only talking the span of a decade here (and people live and work for longer than a decade).

Defenestration posted:

While we discuss automation, LIU has locked out its faculty. On labor day.

Their contract expired August 31st, but they are not striking. 400 Professors wanted to work and were scheduled to vote on the new contract offer and instead LIU deactivated their emails and canceled their health insurance with no notice. Tenured faculty included. LIU then laughably assigned geriatric Deans to teach classes like dance and yoga. (To say nothing of complicated intellectual subjects.) Their excuse is that they promised students they would cap tuition hikes at 2%, and they can't afford to pay faculty at the Brooklyn campus equal wages as the faculty on the Long Island campus. (Guess what the demographics are of the Brooklyn campus vs LI)


The Nation also covered this. Looks like the University President Kimberly Cline is a proven strikebreaker who is austerity-ing the university into the ground. Tuition remains in the 40 thousands.


I don't know much about the negotiations themselves, but here's the current counteroffer (which LIU had to announce via twitter since they deactivated everyone's emails.
http://liu.edu/offer

WeAreTheRomans posted:

My boy El-P clowning on Trump not only on that latest DJ Shadow collab, but also via Twitter

https://twitter.com/therealelp/status/772579989740986368

AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

Trump isn't an enigmatic or complex figure in any sense. He is such a textbook narcissist that future psychology students will probably be studying this election. Narcissists actually possess very fragile egos which is why they seek constant approval and praise even to the point of becoming pathological liars to others but mostly to themselves. Notice how Trump surrounds himself with sycophants rather than powerful allies? Narcissists are thus hypersensitive to any perceived criticism that threatens their delicate sense of self-worth and they usually respond in a disproportionate and nasty way to such criticisms by attacking their source. This is the classic narcissistic injury.

For example, Trump was obviously way out of his depth in Mexico and I have no doubt he was clearly told that Mexico would in no way, shape or fashion ever pay for his plan to build this 500 billion dollar wall, which is less a wall and more a monument to Trump's mighty ego as well as an Utopian metaphor for a walled-off white society than an effective or realistic method to stop illegal immigration. Even 66% of his supporters don't think it will ever be built.

Being told off by a Mexican of all people would have caused Trump severe cognitive dissonance, so he lied to himself and others that the subject never came up and once he was back in his safe space at his Nurenberg rallies his rage at being spoken down to like a child made him triple down on the wall and the most extreme elements of his deportation plan, throwing all the efforts to soften his image right out the window. This was almost certainly the Mexican President's intended result, and he played Trump like a vihuela.

The Khan thing actually hurt Trump for some reason, perhaps because reverence for the military is such a core Republican virtue... or pathology. Clinton will likely try to goad Trump into a state of injury and contrive it so that he lashes out against some conservative sacred cow or another. The way she responds to his attacks may also be enough for The Donald to lose control and the Dark Trump to emerge. I'm hoping for a Primal Fear-like ending.

canepazzo posted:

Krugman wrote a column where he basically draws a parallel between the media coverage of Clinton/Trump and Gore/Bush. I wasn't following that election much at the tine, how accurate is this comparison?