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Trapezium Dave posted:Hillary might be risk adverse and go full policy wonk but it seems obvious to me that the better approach is to repeatedly kick Trump in the ego until he fully melts down.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:03 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 03:55 |
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Tom Guycot posted:Personally I can't see any way for Trump to improve his standing with white women. His numbers are so bad he's losing across virtually every single segment of the white women vote by large margins. The only single place he's ahead is his strongest group, folks without higher education, and even then he's like 1 point ahead. He is absolutely dismal with women as a whole of course, but even white women. The absolutely best bet I can see for Trump is just not making things worse for himself, which is a tall order. If he can walk away without acting like such an egregious sexist bully, to the woman across from him, that will probably leave him where he started, but thats the best case scenario I can see. I mean, I don't really disagree. I don't think he's going to jump ten percent with white women. I just think white women are about the only group he might plausibly have a shot at increasing his margins with. I'm not saying the debates will lose Hillary the election. I think they maybe, possibly, could have an adverse effect on her chances at a historic blowout. And I think the media will pretty definitely try to twist the narrative to be favorable to Trump because they're spineless hacks. Thus what I'm attempting to say, largely, is that the thread shouldn't flip its collective poo poo when CS comes in the day after the debates with about twenty headlines along the lines of "oh wow, Trump was so presidential!" and the polls move a point or two away from Hillary.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:04 |
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Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:08 |
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Lightning Knight posted:And I think the media will pretty definitely try to twist the narrative to be favorable to Trump because they're spineless hacks. Thus what I'm attempting to say, largely, is that the thread shouldn't flip its collective poo poo when CS comes in the day after the debates with about twenty headlines along the lines of "oh wow, Trump was so presidential!" and the polls move a point or two away from Hillary. Oh, no question. I agree wholeheartedly the media will be spewing that the moment its over, I just don't think the polls will reflect much of a change.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:12 |
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deadkiller615 posted:Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207 Haha he looks like the cover of a Goosebumps book in that picture. I also love the casualness with which his own mother owns him for being an rear end in a top hat: Politico posted:“He only became a Republican after he began to get all those jobs from them,” his mother, Helen Giuliani, would say in 1988, as only moms can. “He’s definitely not a conservative Republican. He thinks he is, but he isn’t. He still feels very sorry for the poor.” Tom Guycot posted:Oh, no question. I agree wholeheartedly the media will be spewing that the moment its over, I just don't think the polls will reflect much of a change. I rather doubt it too. Unless Hillary shows up from bizarro world and all her debate prep and preexisting policy knowledge disappear, and/or she lets herself get baited by emailghazi attacks, she won't lose more than a point or two. I merely doubt that she will walk out of the debates with a meaningful gain, because I doubt that Trump will fall to pieces like everyone seems to think he will. Trump is perfectly capable of pretending to be harmless, as his Mexico trip showed us. Yeah, he looked like a total doofus and the Mexican president, a doofus in his own right, chaos dunked him, but the average American doesn't perceive or appreciate such things. And that's the part that matters.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:16 |
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Keep in mind she hired psychologists onto the debate prep crew for the presumable purpose of surgically pissing Trump off. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/08/donald-trump-wont-prepare-for-the-debates.html FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Sep 5, 2016 |
# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:20 |
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FAUXTON posted:Keep in mind she hired a psychologist onto the debate prep crew for the presumable purpose of surgically pissing Trump off. That's actually rather hilarious. Also not really counter to what I'm saying. I expect Hillary will do great in the debates. Full stop. I just also think Joe Blow Average American won't appreciate how qualified she is, and how unqualified Trump is, because Hillary can be a brilliant consummate politician deserving of the job of leader of the goddamned free world and your average jackass will still find "make America great again (by kicking out all the non-white people)" compelling. I don't think Trump will gain a meaningful share of the vote that way, but I also think Hillary's performance on the debate stage, no matter how well she does, will not be appreciated by most non-politically active Americans. I'm positing the notion that Hillary has a ceiling on how well the American public will perceive her debate performance, no matter how well she actually does. While Trump has a floor. That blows, but it's not enough to swing the election. Though it is possibly enough to make certain posters go through an extra bottle of anxiety meds. Note that I really really want to be proven wrong. I'm just being the pessimist, for our purposes. Edit: I'll be perfectly honest, Donald Trump could probably say the n-word or another equally vile slur on the debate stage and the media would probably still bend over backwards to justify his existence as the Republican presidential nominee. His bar is set so goddamn low that nothing would surprise me anymore. Lightning Knight fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Sep 5, 2016 |
# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:25 |
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Lightning Knight posted:That's actually rather hilarious. I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:35 |
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FAUXTON posted:I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it. What if they just put him on downers again
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:39 |
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FAUXTON posted:I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it. But I also can't see Trump not going off the deep end at least once without practising with someone deliberately baiting him, and I can't see him ever doing that either.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:40 |
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computer parts posted:And my point is the job function of the driver doesn't really change with automation. Okay but that doesn't address the downward wage pressure unless you think that having someone 'certified' to sit in the truck is going to net them the same pay, in which case then Also, your theory has a lifespan. Immediate impacts will be limited but as time progresses, technology improves, and regulations lessen, that impact is only going to be more pronounced. We're only talking the span of a decade here (and people live and work for longer than a decade).
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:40 |
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FAUXTON posted:I think the "piss Trump off so he calls Hillary a oval office on national television" strategy is a way of accounting for the fact that sane and qualified is not flashy, but being ripshit bonkers is a deadly liability. Hillary wants to bring that out into the klieg glare and show that to the country and Donald is probably going to let her do it. Yeah but the last time that actually worked was with Goldwater. Goldwater was a special kind of foolish, willing to commit to the idea of using nuclear weapons in Vietnam at the height of the Cold War, and he wasn't even stupid. He just had bad political ideals and would have been an abysmal president. We live in the world of 24 hour online news cycles and a Republican Party that his been openly fascist for almost twenty five years now, and blatantly unfit to run a country since Nixon in the '70s. The American public is largely desensitized to the type of shtick Trump is putting on. That's the whole point - Trump isn't stupid and he isn't incompetent, he's just not trying to become President. He's been biding his time and playing the long con - always teasing that he'd run, but never really running - until he got to the right election at the right time where he thought he could make a quick buck off of the stupid morons who vote Republican in this country. The problem now is that while you can run a bunch of polls that say that people disapprove of the Republicans and disapprove of Trump, people who actually vote are either sane but for a variety of reasons not able to reliably show up (Democrats), aggressively stupid and subscribers to "the truth is in the middle" (so-called independents and moderate Republicans) or rabidly racist fascists who embrace the void of the modern Republican Party. Hence Trump can be so clearly, obviously not fit to be anywhere near the Presidency and still be able to pull so much of the vote. Trump should be polling a solid 20-30% of the population - what I'd estimate to be the actual section of the voting populace that is willing to straight up vote for fascism in America. The fact that he's pulling more than that is a testament to the stupidity of a voting base where a meaningful fraction of the population actually thinks the Republican Party is a credible force of governance or has been for generations, or that equivalency and moderation between the Democratic and Republican Parties as they are now is a credible position to hold. Trump is pretty definitely not going to win the election, but he's probably going to be crowned kingshit of gently caress mountain at the debates because of the media and enough of the voting base of this country being dumb enough to not just condemn him for his outright vileness. And that's ok, because that's still not enough to make for a President Trump.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:45 |
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:What if they just put him on downers again What if they replaced him with Ben Carson and nobody said a goddamn thing
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 07:50 |
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Spaced God posted:I don't like living in a world where we have to put what loving TV shows/movies the politician is famous for before their affiliation/state. That wasn't my intent. It was more to say that even Gen Xers that were on during the MTV heydays eventually sold out and became FYGM Republican. Hell, Kennedy is a Fox News contributor. Rick_Hunter fucked around with this message at 08:26 on Sep 5, 2016 |
# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:09 |
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deadkiller615 posted:Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207 I have a bone to pick with this article. Quetzalcoatl demanded sacrifices of butterflies and hummingbird feathers, not human hearts. A shameful reading on Aztec mythology! Oh and earlier, when people were talking about the whole situation in the BRICS countries? Could the fact that they are suffering kind of impact the world economy considering how integrated we are all supposed to be?
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:18 |
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Lightning Knight posted:That's actually rather hilarious. If the polls are any indicator, Joe Blow Average American is a Clinton supporter. Trump's supporters are below average.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:30 |
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QuarkJets posted:If the polls are any indicator, Joe Blow Average American is a Clinton supporter. Trump's supporters are below average. Which is why I said the debates won't change the fact that Hillary is almost certainly going to win. They could shave a point or two off her margins, if only temporarily. I'm basically an rear end in a top hat who spent a bunch of words to say "yo guys, when the media and a large chunk of the country concludes that 'Hillary lost the debates,' don't sweat it, because they're stupid and she's still going to win." Because holy poo poo Celeste Scribe is going to be insufferable the next day.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:35 |
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Lightning Knight posted:Haha he looks like the cover of a Goosebumps book in that picture. I also love the casualness with which his own mother owns him for being an rear end in a top hat: I could only see a Claymation version of Edvard Munch's The Scream. Or possibly a gender-swapped Large Marge
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:39 |
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ImpAtom posted:Pointing out Obama is inexperienced is fine. Using the awful shot of "he'll get your children killed" is disgusting. There's a reason it's in the same 'effective' category as Swift Boat Veterans and the like. It being effective doesn't make it not disgusting. Every politician claims they will be better at the job than the other guy. All of them. Each and every one. Not every politician tells baldfaced lies about their opponent's life experiences and platform when doing this. And not ever politician attributes malice/evil to the other guy. The swift boat ads blatantly lied about matters of public record such as claiming that Kerry didn't actually see combat(bullshit) and that he advocated leaving POWs behind (more bullshit). The 3am ad did not lie about Obama's lack of experience. Even you admit this was a valid criticism. Comparing a dramatized "what if" based on a valid point to swiftboating is silly. By way of comparison, I'd been receiving all manner of slanderous innuendo and "what ifs" from the Bernie camp before getting one that was disgusting. It claiming that if elected Hillary's policies would poison children but the child poisoning part wasn't the bit that was beyond the pale. The bullshit part was where he stated, unequivocally, in bold, that "Hillary Clinton Supports Fracking". This is a blatant lie. She supports a regulatory regime so tight it would de-facto ban it. This is not a legit worry or a valid criticism. If he'd made the much milder claim that her regulatory proposals didn't go far enough and would still leave the potential for a child to be poisoned while his total ban proposals would be more effective than hers then it'd be a fair criticism. The paragraphs of dramatic descriptions about children drinking contaminated water are not the determining factor as to whether the email is disgusting or not. Instead of doing that he claimed that Hillary's platform is to knowingly and maliciously poison children's drinking water in return for big oil $$$$. That is some swiftboat level poo poo right there. By contrast, the 3am add is neither factually inaccurate nor does it attribute wicked motives to Obama. Go on, watch it again: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7yr7odFUARg If it had a shot of a black hand swatting the phone away while its owner buries his face in the pillows and grumbled about being tired that would be worthy of the claims you are making. Pointing out that Hillary is on a first name basis with world leaders Obama had never met, otoh ... no. Political filth detectors don't even twitch for that.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:47 |
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So I had never seen this ad you guys are talking about, and I finally just watched it. As someone who has little memory of the 2008 primary and next to no vested interest in reliving the political battles a lot of you are probably old enough to have fought at the time, I didn't find the ad terribly offensive. I didn't feel there was any particular racial or gender subtext, the ad didn't seem to be trying to imply anything particularly wrong. It uses a conventional "think of the children" motif to convey the notion that Hillary is a more qualified candidate than Obama to handle world situations, with the implicit understanding that this was a time when we were to be transitioning from the disaster that was the Bush Administration, so people watching the ad would be implicitly comparing Hillary and Obama not just to each other, but also to Bush. I don't think the ad is questionable. Honestly, I don't even think it's very good. An ad asking the American public who'd they want if, say, another 9/11 happened, to answer the phone would've made more sense to me. But I'm also of a younger political generation. That said, didn't birther garbage start with the Hillary campaign, or people attached to it? And wasn't Bill a massive shitstain in 2008? From what I've heard and read, there's plenty more objectionable things to find with Hillary's 2008 primary, since it seems like she ran a pretty weak campaign under the assumption she would go unchallenged.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 08:54 |
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Raenir Salazar posted:The emphasis on Self-Driving cars (Autos seems to be the going term) is that it will have the single largest visible effect on the labour force as there's something like 30 million jobs world wide that could vanish* in an extremely short amount of time as soon as insurance companies give the green light. Xae posted:I don't think it will be in a short period of time. 10-15 years is a really short time period for 30 million jobs to vanish. For the record, the Great Recession only vaporized 8.7 million jobs over about 2 years, so factoring in associated job-loss we're roughly talking about roughly the same rate of job loss as the Great Recession only lasting 10-15 years instead of 2 years. The only thing worse than a short period of rapid job loss is multiple decades of rapid job loss. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 09:05 on Sep 5, 2016 |
# ? Sep 5, 2016 09:00 |
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Rick_Hunter posted:That wasn't my intent. It was more to say that even Gen Xers that were on during the MTV heydays eventually sold out and became FYGM Republican. Hell, Kennedy is a Fox News contributor. I didn't mean to make it a dig at you or miss you point as much as I did to go on my tangent. My bad!
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 09:19 |
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Looking at that ad now, all I notice is how much those fades to black between shots make my brain bleed.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 09:27 |
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Paul MaudDib posted:10-15 years is a really short time period for 30 million jobs to vanish. For the record, the Great Recession only vaporized 8.7 million jobs over about 2 years, so factoring in associated job-loss we're roughly talking about roughly the same rate of job loss as the Great Recession only lasting 10-15 years instead of 2 years. Only a fraction of those jobs will actually be lost. Basically any job where the driver has to do more than just drive and you can't rely on employees at the origin and destination to do that work instead isn't going to go anywhere, although I agree with Boon that the real threat is downward wage pressure. In general, the threat to employment from automation never comes from massive job loss because technology just isn't adopted that quickly. Edit- I'd actually be shocked if anyone other than taxi drivers are at real risk of being replaced over the short term, and even that I'm not really sure about. Maybe long haul truckers too, if we're talking more like 20-30 years from now. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Sep 5, 2016 |
# ? Sep 5, 2016 09:36 |
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The simple invention of the standard shipping container eliminated 90% of longshoreman jobs. Just lol if you don't think automated transport will affect transport employment
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 11:50 |
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While we discuss automation, LIU has locked out its faculty. On labor day. Their contract expired August 31st, but they are not striking. 400 Professors wanted to work and were scheduled to vote on the new contract offer and instead LIU deactivated their emails and canceled their health insurance with no notice. Tenured faculty included. LIU then laughably assigned geriatric Deans to teach classes like dance and yoga. (To say nothing of complicated intellectual subjects.) Their excuse is that they promised students they would cap tuition hikes at 2%, and they can't afford to pay faculty at the Brooklyn campus equal wages as the faculty on the Long Island campus. (Guess what the demographics are of the Brooklyn campus vs LI) quote:
The Nation also covered this. Looks like the University President Kimberly Cline is a proven strikebreaker who is austerity-ing the university into the ground. Tuition remains in the 40 thousands. quote:[...] I don't know much about the negotiations themselves, but here's the current counteroffer (which LIU had to announce via twitter since they deactivated everyone's emails. http://liu.edu/offer
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 13:22 |
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Axetrain posted:Speaking of Wallace, Bill Clinton taking him to task for his lovely interview questions is always a good watch. it just gets better every time Raenir Salazar posted:Wow gently caress Wallace. Is he even remotely better now? Wallace's thing is to be the adult at FN. He calls out GOP politicians from time to tim and gets very upset if you call him right wing, but he's still controlled by Ailes (well, was until recently). He's also the son of Mike Wallace. Sir Tonk fucked around with this message at 13:48 on Sep 5, 2016 |
# ? Sep 5, 2016 13:46 |
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deadkiller615 posted:Wow Giuliani gets WRECKED in this Politico article http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-2016-214207 More proof that Trump is nothing new and Rudy was always a bastard who happened to get a lucky break for fleeting fame. Defenestration posted:While we discuss automation, LIU has locked out its faculty. On labor day. Sounds like an 80's villain come to life.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 13:47 |
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Some of you making fun of the perception of a poor ecconomy are likely not taking into account how much harder it is to secure a position past a certain age. As a recruiter its tougher to get an employer to consider a candidate over 50 than anyone else with a clean record. It seems less productive to mock people for their perception of the economy than to remind them that THIS is what a good economy looks like now.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 13:57 |
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Josef bugman posted:Oh and earlier, when people were talking about the whole situation in the BRICS countries? Could the fact that they are suffering kind of impact the world economy considering how integrated we are all supposed to be? Lots of people are going to lose their shirts if they made investments that presumed the BRICS were going to rule the world, but they are still not particularly well integrated into the global economy. The Chinese stock market shat the bed a year ago and Western markets ended up being fine. The biggest impact of the decline of the BRICS is that there just isn't any major global growth anymore unless you believe China's fabricated GDP numbers.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 14:11 |
Sir Tonk posted:it just gets better every time He has a rat like face and does that bullshit "hey let me finish my obviously leading question while I interupt you halfway through the answer." Trump should just go all out on absurd lies rapid fire the last debate so that Hillary can't respond to them all to really poison the well since that fucker will just sit there and smirk.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 14:20 |
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FAUXTON posted:Keep in mind she hired psychologists onto the debate prep crew for the presumable purpose of surgically pissing Trump off. Trump isn't an enigmatic or complex figure in any sense. He is such a textbook narcissist that future psychology students will probably be studying this election. Narcissists actually possess very fragile egos which is why they seek constant approval and praise even to the point of becoming pathological liars to others but mostly to themselves. Notice how Trump surrounds himself with sycophants rather than powerful allies? Narcissists are thus hypersensitive to any perceived criticism that threatens their delicate sense of self-worth and they usually respond in a disproportionate and nasty way to such criticisms by attacking their source. This is the classic narcissistic injury. For example, Trump was obviously way out of his depth in Mexico and I have no doubt he was clearly told that Mexico would in no way, shape or fashion ever pay for his plan to build this 500 billion dollar wall, which is less a wall and more a monument to Trump's mighty ego as well as an Utopian metaphor for a walled-off white society than an effective or realistic method to stop illegal immigration. Even 66% of his supporters don't think it will ever be built. Being told off by a Mexican of all people would have caused Trump severe cognitive dissonance, so he lied to himself and others that the subject never came up and once he was back in his safe space at his Nurenberg rallies his rage at being spoken down to like a child made him triple down on the wall and the most extreme elements of his deportation plan, throwing all the efforts to soften his image right out the window. This was almost certainly the Mexican President's intended result, and he played Trump like a vihuela. The Khan thing actually hurt Trump for some reason, perhaps because reverence for the military is such a core Republican virtue... or pathology. Clinton will likely try to goad Trump into a state of injury and contrive it so that he lashes out against some conservative sacred cow or another. The way she responds to his attacks may also be enough for The Donald to lose control and the Dark Trump to emerge. I'm hoping for a Primal Fear-like ending.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 14:27 |
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Boon posted:Okay but that doesn't address the downward wage pressure unless you think that having someone 'certified' to sit in the truck is going to net them the same pay, in which case then That's my point, there is no real downward wage pressure. The same sort of people are in demand, needing the same skills (certified to drive a big truck, willing to work poo poo hours). We are not currently paying truck drivers for their skills in driving trucks. We're doing it because no one wants to do that job but it has to be done. This won't change. quote:Also, your theory has a lifespan. Immediate impacts will be limited but as time progresses, technology improves, and regulations lessen, that impact is only going to be more pronounced. We're only talking the span of a decade here (and people live and work for longer than a decade). It'll take over a decade just for companies to get the technology after it's perfected. I guarantee right now that the CDL is not going to go away, so your argument is bunk. Please note: this does not mean "oh we will have truck drivers until the end of eternity" or whatever weird extrapolation you want to throw at me in response.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 14:28 |
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I've seen plenty of examples of Obama doing so, but is there any video evidence of Dubya competently putting a reporter in his place, let alone giving him the sort of shellacking that Clinton gave Wallace there? My gut instinct says no, but I also remember the glimmers of competence that occasionally emerged from under Dubya's clown mask.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 14:29 |
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Defenestration posted:While we discuss automation, LIU has locked out its faculty. On labor day. Every student needs to sue the gently caress out of that school because they are conspiring to not provide the education they are paying for in clear, absolute, unambiguous terms
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 14:40 |
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My boy El-P clowning on Trump not only on that latest DJ Shadow collab, but also via Twitter https://twitter.com/therealelp/status/772579989740986368
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 15:00 |
Krugman wrote a column where he basically draws a parallel between the media coverage of Clinton/Trump and Gore/Bush. I wasn't following that election much at the tine, how accurate is this comparison?
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 15:06 |
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WeAreTheRomans posted:My boy El-P clowning on Trump not only on that latest DJ Shadow collab, but also via Twitter Talk to your doctor if you may be experiencing symptoms of Low T.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 15:13 |
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Trump isn't an enigmatic or complex figure in any sense. He is such a textbook narcissist that future psychology students will probably be studying this election. Narcissists actually possess very fragile egos which is why they seek constant approval and praise even to the point of becoming pathological liars to others but mostly to themselves. Notice how Trump surrounds himself with sycophants rather than powerful allies? Narcissists are thus hypersensitive to any perceived criticism that threatens their delicate sense of self-worth and they usually respond in a disproportionate and nasty way to such criticisms by attacking their source. This is the classic narcissistic injury. Yup. The only thing new about Trump is that he reveals how vulnerable the country is to a narccisit because one of our parties has convinced their voters that's what strength is and that facts don't matter.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 15:18 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 03:55 |
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canepazzo posted:Krugman wrote a column where he basically draws a parallel between the media coverage of Clinton/Trump and Gore/Bush. I wasn't following that election much at the tine, how accurate is this comparison? An important aspect of the 2000 election is that it's one of the lowest turnout elections on record, and part of the reason for that is because people didn't see a fundamental difference between the two candidates. For better or worse, there is a fundamental distinction today.
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# ? Sep 5, 2016 15:18 |