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Hodgepodge
Jan 29, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 211 days!

fishmech posted:

No, the industrial revolution didn't start in the 1500s. Please, take a remedial history class sometime.


By that standard there's never been a non-robotic car, so clearly robotic cars can't kill off jobs.

Good point; the bulk of the transition from a mostly agricultural workforce took place over the last 200 years, rather than 500.

However, if you're going to include incremental developments 300-odd years before that point, I'm free to include the developments which lead to the Industrial Revolution in that time period as well.

e: you probably understand that the workforce for industrialization was created by the displacement of agricultural labour by developments such as enclosure- right?

Hodgepodge fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Sep 5, 2016

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iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Nucleic Acids posted:

Only when they tried to go "no you" with Clinton and her "Russia ties."

SovCits have a weird fetish with Russia. Why I don't know.

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

fishmech posted:

Also, mechanization has very little to do with why we're not all farmers, that had stopped being necessary for a long time before farm populations really declined. There just wasn't much of anything else you could do to earn money to afford to live.

Please expand on this, because I'm not sure I agree at all but can't be certain based on that.

Periodiko
Jan 30, 2005
Uh.

iospace posted:

SovCits have a weird fetish with Russia. Why I don't know.

Really? Could you elaborate, that's interesting.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



wixard posted:

You really think they're going to automate truck-driving, but running a pallet jack on a dock is going to be a definitively human job?

I don't even think the first thing tbh

If it was ever going to be the case that something like that would be fully automated we wouldn't have pilots anymore already

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

iospace posted:

SovCits have a weird fetish with Russia. Why I don't know.

Because most SovCits are extreme FYGM types and modern Russia openly operates on the FYGM principle with Putin as head strongman.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

No, it is not going all-robotic. The article pretty clearly covers why it isn't as well. It covers a certain subset of farming needs that aren't suitable for nearly all the crops out there.

This is once again equivalent to thinking that parallel parking assist and space-maintaining cruise control on the freeway mean that your car will drive you anywhere you want to go "real soon".

Hodgepodge posted:

Good point; the bulk of the transition from a mostly agricultural workforce took place over the last 200 years, rather than 500.

However, if you're going to include incremental developments 300-odd years before that point, I'm free to include the developments which lead to the Industrial Revolution in that time period as well.

No, dude, the reason that way less people work in agriculture over the past 200 years has far more to do with other forms of work becoming available. People were subsistence farmers not because it was necessary for society, but because there was nothing else they were qualified for and was available where they are. That's why the rural population in the US was able to drop sharply starting around 1840 - there were tons of people farming that didn't really need to be farming in the first place, and suddenly there were industrial (and to a limited extent as a result of urban migration, commercial jobs) for them to take instead of running a farmstead.



So you believe machine guns are robots too, then? I guess if you put your standards that low, everything is a robot.

Boon posted:

Please expand on this, because I'm not sure I agree at all but can't be certain based on that.

There were no jobs that masses of the population could reasonably do for quite some time before factories and so on really took off, and not only massively ballooned demand for those sorts of workers - but also for mining and other related occupations to feed greatly increased demand from industry. For a very long time small-holding farmers were barely operating above subsistence levels.

Hodgepodge
Jan 29, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 211 days!

Boon posted:

Please expand on this, because I'm not sure I agree at all but can't be certain based on that.

It's sort of true. Developments like enclosure weren't strictly mechanization. Then again, neither is the assembly line.

They absolutely were required for industrialization, in that the people displaced by developments in agriculture became the workforce required for the development of industry. Once things really got going, though, people who didn't necessarily need to leave the countryside actually came to the city because they preferred industrial jobs to farming, though (in Britain anyhow).

fishmech posted:

No, dude, the reason that way less people work in agriculture over the past 200 years has far more to do with other forms of work becoming available. People were subsistence farmers not because it was necessary for society, but because there was nothing else they were qualified for and was available where they are. That's why the rural population in the US was able to drop sharply starting around 1840 - there were tons of people farming that didn't really need to be farming in the first place, and suddenly there were industrial (and to a limited extent as a result of urban migration, commercial jobs) for them to take instead of running a farmstead.

We sort of agree. I'm more familiar with the British context, though, where landholders started kicking people off the land before there were other jobs available. But you're absolutely correct that, as lovely as industrial labour was at the time, people left agriculture for industry once the opportunity was available.

The two were very much related, though. Industrialization didn't just appear magically in 1820, having nothing to do with how landowners had developed their property.

Hodgepodge fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Sep 5, 2016

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Epic High Five posted:

I don't even think the first thing tbh

If it was ever going to be the case that something like that would be fully automated we wouldn't have pilots anymore already

Anyone arguing that automation of trucks is going to replace the driver is insane. However, since you brought it up, pilots are an excellent example of a profession where technology and automation has helped to depress wages.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/772766382077321216

Greg Abbott wants to remind people to thank the real heroes of Labor Day.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

Sir Tonk posted:

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/772766382077321216

Greg Abbott wants to remind people to thank the real heroes of Labor Day.

"Remember, on this MLK Day, to keep the brave men and women in our armed forces in your thoughts and prayers."

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Sir Tonk posted:

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/772766382077321216

Greg Abbott wants to remind people to thank the real heroes of Labor Day.

Well, it can at least be said that the military and uniformed services certainly played a role in labor disputes

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Sir Tonk posted:

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/772766382077321216

Greg Abbott wants to remind people to thank the real heroes of Labor Day.

That poo poo pisses me off. I also take umbrage with the adoration on memorial day.

fishmech posted:

There were no jobs that masses of the population could reasonably do for quite some time before factories and so on really took off, and not only massively ballooned demand for those sorts of workers - but also for mining and other related occupations to feed greatly increased demand from industry. For a very long time small-holding farmers were barely operating above subsistence levels.

Ah I got ya now, nevermind.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Boon posted:

That poo poo pisses me off. I also take umbrage with the adoration on memorial day.

Memorial Day is at least a holiday explicitly designed to honour the military. This is the equivalent of a "Happy Thanksgiving everyone, be sure to especially thank the brave men and women who defend your freedom to overeat" tweet.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/772854182890045440

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
who's got that cartoon with the wwii vet in a wheelchair shaming the gradeschooler that won't say the pledge?

Hodgepodge
Jan 29, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 211 days!
Okay, found a good summary of the subject:

http://www.historyguide.org/intellect/lecture17a.html posted:


Historians are now agreed that beginning in the 17th century and continuing throughout the 18th century, England witnessed an agricultural revolution. English (and Dutch) farmers were the most productive farmers of the century and were continually adopting new methods of farming and experimenting with new types of vegetables and grains. They also learned a great deal about manure and other fertilizers. In other words, many English farmers were treating farming as a science, and all this interest eventually resulted in greater yields. Was the English farmer more enterprising than his French counterpart? Perhaps, but not by virtue of intelligence alone. English society was far more open than French -- there were no labor obligations to the lord. The English farmer could move about his locale or the country to sell his goods while the French farmer was bound by direct and indirect taxes, tariffs or other kinds of restrictions. In 1700, 80% of the population of England earned its income from the land. A century later, that figure had dropped to 40%.

The result of these developments taken together was a period of high productivity and low food prices. And this, in turn, meant that the typical English family did not have to spend almost everything it earned on bread (as was the case in France before 1789), and instead could purchase manufactured goods.

There are other assets that helped make England the "first industrial nation." Unlike France, England had an effective central bank and well-developed credit market. The English government allowed the domestic economy to function with few restrictions and encouraged both technological change and a free market. England also had a labor surplus which, thanks to the enclosure movement, meant that there was an adequate supply of workers for the burgeoning factory system.

England's agricultural revolution came as a result of increased attention to fertilizers, the adoption of new crops and farming technologies, and the enclosure movement. Jethro Tull (1674-1741) invented a horse-drawn hoe as well as a mechanical seeder which allowed seeds to be planted in orderly rows. A contemporary of Tull, Charles "Turnip" Townshend (1674-1738), stressed the value of turnips and other field crops in a rotation system of planting rather than letting the land lay fallow. Thomas William Coke (1754-1842) suggested the utilization of field grasses and new fertilizers as well as greater attention to estate management.

In order for these "high farmers" to make the most efficient use of the land, they had to manage the fields as they saw fit. This was, of course, impossible under the three field system which had dominated English and European agriculture for centuries. Since farmers, small and large, held their property in long strips, they had to follow the same rules of cultivation. The local parish or village determined what ought to be planted. In the end, the open-field system of crop rotation was an obstacle to increased agricultural productivity. The solution was to enclose the land, and this meant enclosing entire villages. Landlords knew that the peasants would not give up their land voluntarily, so they appealed by petition to Parliament, a difficult and costly adventure at best. The first enclosure act was passed in 1710 but was not enforced until the 1750s. In the ten years between 1750 and 1760, more than 150 acts were passed and between 1800 and 1810, Parliament passed more than 900 acts of enclosure. While enclosure ultimately contributed to an increased agricultural surplus, necessary to feed a population that would double in the 18th century, it also brought disaster to the countryside. Peasant formers were dispossessed of their land and were now forced to find work in the factories which began springing up in towns and cities.

England faced increasing pressure to produce more manufactured goods due to the 18th century population explosion -- England's population nearly doubled over the course of the century. And the industry most important in the rise of England as an industrial nation was cotton textiles. No other industry can be said to have advanced so far so quickly. Although the putting-out system (cottage industry) was fairly well-developed across the Continent, it was fully developed in England. A merchant would deliver raw cotton at a household. The cotton would be cleaned and then spun into yarn or thread. After a period of time, the merchant would return, pick up the yarn and drop off more raw cotton. The merchant would then take the spun yarn to another household where it was woven into cloth. The system worked fairly well except under the growing pressure of demand, the putting-out system could no longer keep up.

There was a constant shortage of thread so the industry began to focus on ways to improve the spinning of cotton. The first solution to this bottleneck appeared around 1765 when James Hargreaves (c.1720-1778), a carpenter by trade, invented his cotton-spinning jenny. At almost the same time, Richard Arkwright (1732-1792) invented another kind of spinning device, the water frame. Thanks to these two innovations, ten times as much cotton yarn had been manufactured in 1790 than had been possible just twenty years earlier. Hargreaves' jenny was simple, inexpensive and hand-operated. The jenny had between six and twenty-four spindles mounted on a sliding carriage. The spinner (almost always a woman) moved the carriage back and forth with one hand and turned a wheel to supply power with the other. Of course, now that one bottleneck had been relieved, another appeared -- the weaver (usually a man) could no longer keep up with the supply of yarn. Arkwright's water frame was based on a different principle. It acquired a capacity of several hundred spindles and demanded more power -- water power. The water frame required large, specialized mills employing hundreds of workers. The first consequence of these developments was that cotton goods became much cheaper and were bought by all social classes. Cotton is the miracle fiber -- it is easy to clean, spin, weave and dye and is comfortable to wear. Now millions of people who had worn nothing under their coarse clothes could afford to wear cotton undergarments.

Although the spinning jenny and water frame managed to increase the productive capacity of the cotton industry, the real breakthrough came with developments in steam power. Developed in England by Thomas Savery (1698) and Thomas Newcomen (1705), these early steam engines were used to pump water from coal mines. In the 1760s, a Scottish engineer, James Watt (1736-1819) created an engine that could pump water three times as quickly as the Newcomen engine. In 1782, Watt developed a rotary engine that could turn a shaft and drive machinery to power the machines to spin and weave cotton cloth. Because Watt's engine was fired by coal and not water, spinning factories could be located virtually anywhere.

Steam power also promoted important changes in other industries. The use of steam-driven bellows in blast furnaces helped ironmakers switch over from charcoal (limited in quantity) to coke, which is made from coal, in the smelting of pig iron. In the 1780s, Henry Cort (1740-1800) developed the puddling furnace, which allowed pig iron to be refined in turn with coke. Skilled ironworkers ("puddlers") could "stir" molten pig iron in a large vat, raking off refined iron for further processing. Cort also developed steam-powered rolling mills, which were capable of producing finished iron in a variety of shapes and forms.

Aided by revolutions in agriculture, transportation, communications and technology, England was able to become the "first industrial nation." This is a fact that historians have long recognized. However, there were a few other less-tangible reasons which we must consider. These are perhaps cultural reasons. Although the industrial revolution was clearly an unplanned and spontaneous event, it never would have been "made" had there not been men who wanted such a thing to occur. There must have been men who saw opportunities not only for advances in technology, but also the profits those advances might create. Which brings us to one very crucial cultural attribute -- the English, like the Dutch of the same period, were a very commercial people. They saw little problem with making money, nor with taking their surplus and reinvesting it. Whether this attribute has something to do with their "Protestant work ethic," as Max Weber put it, or with a specifically English trait is debatable, but the fact remains that English entrepreneurs had a much wider scope of activities than did their Continental counterparts at the same time.

e: earlier on, the lecture quotes Harold Perkin, who established that once the industrial revolution got going, workers did in fact leave agriculture for industry due to preference. That was several full centuries after enclosure, though. (This lecture refers to a later enclosure movement, the first enclosures were in the Tudor period).

Hodgepodge fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Sep 5, 2016

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
I kind of wonder how many Americans actually understand what it is that labor day is celebrating. Labor day events (at least in my general area) are almost always just AMERICA themed at most.

Good Citizen
Aug 12, 2008

trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump

Sir Tonk posted:

https://twitter.com/GovAbbott/status/772766382077321216

Greg Abbott wants to remind people to thank the real heroes of Labor Day.

Clearly no labor sacrifices to mourn in Texas related to this holiday he says as another factory can be heard exploding in the background

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

vyelkin posted:

Memorial Day is at least a holiday explicitly designed to honour the military. This is the equivalent of a "Happy Thanksgiving everyone, be sure to especially thank the brave men and women who defend your freedom to overeat" tweet.

Yeah, I see the distinction, I'm just saying that I hate the false appropriation of the holiday in general. I went to a Memorial Day event with my dad this past year and the speaker, a newly commissioned national guard artillery officer (nothing wrong with the national guard they are on par with other branches and do everything other branches do... when they're called up and/or deployed. However, it's a lot like the reserves if not deployed which is essentially 'play' military). So as I sat listening to the speech I couldn't help but feel that the keynote speaker completely missed the point of Memorial Day drawing on her limited experience and capacity to serve in the military.

I may be giving the speech next year, and if I do I plan to draw on what I saw in visiting Gettysburg and the national cemetery there and might make a visit to the national cemetery in Milwaukee and then relate the sacrifice of the men/women buried there to the ideas for which they fought under and add in an ooh rah small town feel good piece.

Boon fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Sep 5, 2016

AmiYumi
Oct 10, 2005

I FORGOT TO HAIL KING TORG

Paradoxish posted:

I kind of wonder how many Americans actually understand what it is that labor day is celebrating. Labor day events (at least in my general area) are almost always just AMERICA themed at most.
Labor Day events are retail-oriented excuses for white collar workers to go treat service proles even shittier than they usually would.

Looks like Americans know exactly the point of Labor Day, even if it is subconsciously.

Azuth0667
Sep 20, 2011

By the word of Zoroaster, no business decision is poor when it involves Ahura Mazda.

Xae posted:

We don't have the rail capacity and we don't have the population distribution for this to work.

Infrastructure project and lots of jobs that come with it :science:.

MLKQUOTEMACHINE
Oct 22, 2012

Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill
The people who labor day celebrates usually don't get labor day off. That should tell you all you need to know about how we view the holiday!

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

nutranurse posted:

The people who labor day celebrates usually don't get labor day off. That should tell you all you need to know about how we view the holiday!

Labor day's a good day for me to make about 100/hr.

Really anyone who doesn't realize labor day's about the men and women who were injured, maimed, and killed building this nation deserve shaming.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


nutranurse posted:

The people who labor day celebrates usually don't get labor day off. That should tell you all you need to know about how we view the holiday!

I've had people come into my work and unironically ask why we were open on labor day/memorial day/4th of July/Thanksgiving/etc.

Maybe because you're going to come anyway and whine to corporate when we're closed.

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Sir Tonk posted:

Tesla's self-driving thing isn't even working with its elite group of buyers

What are you referring to here? Because all I've really heard from Tesla Autopilot (which is not a self-driving car system), is one guy drove into a truck he didn't see, and another guy had a heart attack and his car drove him to the hospital. Seems pretty good to me so far

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

WeAreTheRomans posted:

What are you referring to here? Because all I've really heard from Tesla Autopilot (which is not a self-driving car system), is one guy drove into a truck he didn't see, and another guy had a heart attack and his car drove him to the hospital. Seems pretty good to me so far

Decapitation from ramming into a truck at full speed is one hell of a failure mode.

Luna Was Here
Mar 21, 2013

Lipstick Apathy
Was the car not letting him brake or something?

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Luna Was Here posted:

Was the car not letting him brake or something?

The dude's car was found by the police with a video still playing, so he was apparently paying attention to that, rather than the huge truck crossing in front of him.

No indication he tried to break. Tesla blames it on "well the side of the truck was white so it couldn't be detected against a bright sky". Seems like you'd want your self-driving system to be able to detect the most common color of truck, but whatever.

Lastgirl
Sep 7, 1997


Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

nutranurse posted:

The people who labor day celebrates usually don't get labor day off. That should tell you all you need to know about how we view the holiday!

retail and food service really sucks on those kind of holidays, to be working during I mean.

Luna Was Here
Mar 21, 2013

Lipstick Apathy

fishmech posted:

The dude's car was found by the police with a video still playing, so he was apparently paying attention to that, rather than the huge truck crossing in front of him.

No indication he tried to break. Tesla blames it on "well the side of the truck was white so it couldn't be detected against a bright sky". Seems like you'd want your self-driving system to be able to detect the most common color of truck, but whatever.

Doesn't tesla also have a pretty huge disclaimer with those cars that you still have to pay attention and that the car isn't completely autonomous? Like people being irresponsible drivers doesn't seem like their fault

Eifert Posting
Apr 1, 2007

Most of the time he catches it every time.
Grimey Drawer

fishmech posted:

Decapitation from ramming into a truck at full speed is one hell of a failure mode.

It's automotive, that's what failures look like. Reminder that a b list movie star was run down around the same date by his own non-automated car due to a transmission issue and no one gave a poo poo.

Last I read accidents with Tesla's system happen at under 5% of the rate of cars driven conventionally.

Andrast
Apr 21, 2010


Luna Was Here posted:

Doesn't tesla also have a pretty huge disclaimer with those cars that you still have to pay attention and that the car isn't completely autonomous? Like people being irresponsible drivers doesn't seem like their fault

People aren't going to stop being irresponsible idiots though

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Luna Was Here posted:

Doesn't tesla also have a pretty huge disclaimer with those cars that you still have to pay attention and that the car isn't completely autonomous? Like people being irresponsible drivers doesn't seem like their fault

Putting a disclaimer doesn't fix its problems. If you tell people they have an "autopilot" option in their car, they're going to think they can do whatever. There's a lot of other cars out there with nearly all the same features, but fuckin' Mercedes or whatever doesn't tell you you have "autopilot", they tell you you have enhanced lane assist and improved cruise control. That doesn't make people think "yeah I can just watch a movie".


Eifert Posting posted:

Last I read accidents with Tesla's system happen at under 5% of the rate of cars driven conventionally.

I sincerely doubt it. The best I've heard is that it was 5% less than overall rate of accidents - but a lot of accidents end up happening in rough road conditions or other sorts of situations that people aren't likely or even physically able to bring their luxury cars into. So it makes a pretty terrible comparison.

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

fishmech posted:

Putting a disclaimer doesn't fix its problems. If you tell people they have an "autopilot" option in their car, they're going to think they can do whatever.


I sincerely doubt it. The best I've heard is that it was 5% less than overall rate of accidents - but a lot of accidents end up happening in rough road conditions or other sorts of situations that people aren't likely or even physically able to bring their luxury cars into. So it makes a pretty terrible comparison.

Someone start citing a study or articles because these speculative arguments based on posters with no credibility on the topic at hand is just leading to circular arguments.

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

fishmech posted:

The dude's car was found by the police with a video still playing, so he was apparently paying attention to that, rather than the huge truck crossing in front of him.

No indication he tried to break. Tesla blames it on "well the side of the truck was white so it couldn't be detected against a bright sky". Seems like you'd want your self-driving system to be able to detect the most common color of truck, but whatever.

The guy didn't see it coming.

I fail to see how this is in anyway an argument against Tesla Autopilot, unless you think people shouldn't have nice things because retards exist


Eifert Posting posted:

It's automotive, that's what failures look like. Reminder that a b list movie star was run down around the same date by his own non-automated car due to a transmission issue and no one gave a poo poo.

Last I read accidents with Tesla's system happen at under 5% of the rate of cars driven conventionally.

I gave a poo poo :smith: and Anton Yelchin was a legitimately great young actor in 2 big movies this summer (Green Room and Star Trek) so he wasn't B-list by any measure. gently caress you buddy.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Have we considered that making expensive cars that kill the drivers is just a really effective plan to cull the top in the leadup to the glorious people's revolution?

nerve
Jan 2, 2011

SKA SUCKS

WeAreTheRomans posted:

I gave a poo poo :smith: and Anton Yelchin was a legitimately great young actor in 2 big movies this summer (Green Room and Star Trek) so he wasn't B-list by any measure. gently caress you buddy.

:smith::hf::smith:

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Apparently fishmech believes that any technology which changes the way people are used to operating is unfit for this world. As he is a logically rigorous and consistent individual, I expect that he does not partake in the miracle of flight and actively argues against its development.

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Hodgepodge
Jan 29, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 211 days!

Epic High Five posted:

Have we considered that making expensive cars that kill the drivers is just a really effective plan to cull the top in the leadup to the glorious people's revolution?

The plan was to convince them that Soylent is real food and watch them die from exotic nutritional deficiencies, but it isn't working out very well.

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