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fart blood posted:NYTimes "Who Will Be President" article has Clinton down to an 85% chance of winning. PEC's numbers are down, too: Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 87%, Bayesian 92% 
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Sep 7, 2016 16:19
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"RETURN FROM WHENCE YOU CAME" "jesus governor walker the sink toilet and tub are already clogged with fish guts, please stop"
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Sep 7, 2016 16:20
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Florida has 7.2 million households of which 2.6 million are on septic. The majority of septic systems are more than 20 years old and do not properly protect groundwater from contamination. Those same houses likely have well water.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:23
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"You all sure do stock some mighty fine candies in your waterin' closets here." "Mr. Governor, that's toothpaste, please stop eating it."
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Sep 7, 2016 16:24
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turnip kid posted:Sam Wang It basically means don't  because the race has been incredibly stable.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:25
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turnip kid posted:Sam Wang The Popular Meta-Margin works like the more familiar margin between two candidates. It is defined the amount of opinion swing that is needed to bring the Median Electoral Vote Estimator to a tie. It helps you think about how far ahead one candidate really is. For example, if you think support for your candidate is understated by 1%, this can overcome an unfavorable Meta-Margin of less than 1%. If you think that between now and Election Day, 1% of voters will switch from the other candidate to yours, this is a swing of 2% and can compensate for a Meta-Margin of 2%. The Meta-Margin has a useful precision of approximately a tenth of a percentage point.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:26
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thrawn527 posted:It will be. We elected Rick Scott twice. We're the worst. Elected Rick Scott twice, ran Alex Sink god knows how many times, thought Charlie Crist was serious, haven't repealed the FCAT yet, cancelled the rail project connecting the cheap airport (PIE) to the Orlando theme parks most of its passengers are there to visit, outlawed discussion (let alone study) of sea level rise and AGW in state business while Miami is literally flooding daily and salt water is contaminating the aquifer, etc. I mean yeah FL is the worst but "elected Rick Scott twice" is like saying it was just a bad case of pneumonia that killed Freddy Mercury.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:27
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DrPlump posted:Florida has 7.2 million households of which 2.6 million are on septic. The majority of septic systems are more than 20 years old and do not properly protect groundwater from contamination. Those same houses likely have well water. So when you said "Everyone has a septic tank" and that FL has no sewer system, you meant roughly that it was true for roughly 1/3 of the state. Okay.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:27
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Sep 7, 2016 16:27
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DrPlump posted:Florida has 7.2 million households of which 2.6 million are on septic. The majority of septic systems are more than 20 years old and do not properly protect groundwater from contamination. Those same houses likely have well water. DrPlump posted:Florida still does not have a sewer system. Everyone has a septic tank and well water. Now they are fracking the water. Hmmmmmmmmmm
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Sep 7, 2016 16:28
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FAUXTON posted:Elected Rick Scott twice, ran Alex Sink god knows how many times, thought Charlie Crist was serious, haven't repealed the FCAT yet, cancelled the rail project connecting the cheap airport (PIE) to the Orlando theme parks most of its passengers are there to visit, outlawed discussion (let alone study) of sea level rise and AGW in state business while Miami is literally flooding daily and salt water is contaminating the aquifer, etc. I was referring to our terrible performances at voting out bad politicians, and our generally terrible Democrats we get to run. But yeah, that stuff too.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:28
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paranoid randroid posted:The Popular Meta-Margin works like the more familiar margin between two candidates. It is defined the amount of opinion swing that is needed to bring the Median Electoral Vote Estimator to a tie. It helps you think about how far ahead one candidate really is. For example, if you think support for your candidate is understated by 1%, this can overcome an unfavorable Meta-Margin of less than 1%. If you think that between now and Election Day, 1% of voters will switch from the other candidate to yours, this is a swing of 2% and can compensate for a Meta-Margin of 2%. The Meta-Margin has a useful precision of approximately a tenth of a percentage point. woah flashback to that stats class i had with the professor what looked exactly like mahmoud ahmadinejad
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Sep 7, 2016 16:28
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Al! posted:"RETURN FROM WHENCE YOU CAME" Wisconsin's got it bad, but it isn't Florida 
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Sep 7, 2016 16:29
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Weeping Wound posted:Wisconsin's got it bad, but it isn't Florida Florida isn't even Florida anymore, Kansas is the new Florida.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:29
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shiksa posted:woah flashback to that stats class i had with the professor what looked exactly like mahmoud ahmadinejad Which was the guy who was in all the papers looking totally disheveled?
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Sep 7, 2016 16:30
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Al! posted:daycrew: full blown panic over poll swings
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Sep 7, 2016 16:32
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Florida is Dagobah now
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Sep 7, 2016 16:32
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last time i was in florida i found myself in a mega-walmart or whatever those things are called, and i was confused why there was dog food bags in the snack food section when i looked closely this massive bag of dog food was instead a massive bag of cheeto balls. i haven't been back since this was my florida story
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Sep 7, 2016 16:33
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WampaLord posted:Florida isn't even Florida anymore, Kansas is the new Florida. Basically, every state with a hardline GOP governor is in a race to the bottom right now
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Sep 7, 2016 16:33
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WampaLord posted:Florida isn't even Florida anymore, Kansas is the new Florida. How many days has it been since a face has been eaten in florida? Less than 30???!!
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Sep 7, 2016 16:34
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i was also told that in florida it's legal to text and drive how suicidal are you fuckers down there
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Sep 7, 2016 16:34
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gross
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Sep 7, 2016 16:34
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logikv9 posted:i was also told that in florida it's legal to text and drive anything to leave florida, i guess
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Sep 7, 2016 16:35
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logikv9 posted:i was also told that in florida it's legal to text and drive It is not. It is, however, a secondary offense. But very. 
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Sep 7, 2016 16:35
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day crew be like
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Sep 7, 2016 16:35
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turnip kid posted:Sam Wang It's her % lead over Trump based on the aggregate of all polls and data. What he's saying is that despite there being some narrowing over the last few weeks, it's still within the margin we've seen the whole cycle, which means it's not really all that much different. Basically the tightening of the race has gone from giving her hilarious margins, to margins more similar to 2012.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:35
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Cat Army
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Who wants some Emerson polls of the NE? There's one awesome one.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:35
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20 days. Its been 20 days since a face has been eaten in florida. Florida is still Florida
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Sep 7, 2016 16:36
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thrawn527 posted:I was referring to our terrible performances at voting out bad politicians, and our generally terrible Democrats we get to run. But yeah, that stuff too. Well most of that poo poo is part of the FL Dems' terrible performance. Chiles wasn't great but at least he didn't think prisons were great sources of slave labor and that the best way to improve state academic performance was to just make a new test. No idea whether he would have been down with the sunrail or whatever but I bet if someone told him it would cut road maintenance costs while increasing tourism he'd have walked all over the state hawking it to everyone who would listen.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:36
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https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/773542618940645377 Guys I think RI is in play
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Sep 7, 2016 16:36
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logikv9 posted:last time i was in florida i found myself in a mega-walmart or whatever those things are called, and i was confused why there was dog food bags in the snack food section drat, the bag has lasted you this long?
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Sep 7, 2016 16:36
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9 more days without MIGF  could've been 4000+ days but here we are
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Sep 7, 2016 16:36
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Al! posted:20 days. Its been 20 days since a face has been eaten in florida. Florida is still Florida We didn't almost have our schools close down due to a lack of money, though. Kansas is the new Florida.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:37
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Rhode Island is closer than NH or Maine! https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/773540145676980224 https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/773538886932848643 I want to see a Trump rally in Providence.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:38
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Weeping Wound posted:9 more days without MIGF yeah but what about the poster?
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Sep 7, 2016 16:38
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:
Someone make a picture of Ivana Trump running down Trump on a ski-slope like loving LePew to yell at him about Marla
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Sep 7, 2016 16:38
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thrawn527 posted:So when you said "Everyone has a septic tank" and that FL has no sewer system, you meant roughly that it was true for roughly 1/3 of the state. Okay. There is like 5 cities where civilized peoples live that have limited sewer coverage. The rest of the state is hill folk drinking their own jenkum.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:38
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Louisgod posted:yeah but what about the poster? post about Illinois lacking a budget for nearly two years now and watch him get another month's probation over it
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Sep 7, 2016 16:38
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Emerson is an aggressively poo poo landline robodialer pollster. You should not take them seriously, but I really want Trump to go to Rhode Island.
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Sep 7, 2016 16:38
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FAUXTON posted:Elected Rick Scott twice, ran Alex Sink god knows how many times, thought Charlie Crist was serious, haven't repealed the FCAT yet, cancelled the rail project connecting the cheap airport (PIE) to the Orlando theme parks most of its passengers are there to visit, outlawed discussion (let alone study) of sea level rise and AGW in state business while Miami is literally flooding daily and salt water is contaminating the aquifer, etc. and there is an insanely deceptive state amendment on the ballot this election that only passed 4-3 in the supreme Court after being challenged for having misleading language. it will probably pass because "Solar Choice" sounds nice and good, even though it represents a stifling of solar development by utility companies. the same utility companies that Rick Scott is best friends with gently caress the state of florida
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Sep 7, 2016 16:39
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