|
Gold and a Pager posted:Just bought some "no" shares in the Clinton to drop out by the end of September market for 91 cents. Should be pretty much free money if you can wait two weeks. Got most of mine for 86 - some lucky so and sos got around 82-84, I think?
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 12:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 20:41 |
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Well it's obviously not a Pennsylvania-equivalent safe pickup for Clinton. But if Bush couldn't win it, it still seems a bit bizarre to consider it a likely pickup for Trump. What a bizarre statement. What year do you think this is?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 13:23
|
|
|
what the hell, predictit has maximum traders on markets like prez? is it worth refreshing or is that market totally done for?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 16:50
|
|
|
mastershakeman posted:what the hell, predictit has maximum traders on markets like prez? is it worth refreshing or is that market totally done for? I refreshed a few times a day around convention time and got in on Clinton YES but not Trump NO. At that time, the effectively identical markets of “Will a woman be elected?”, “What party will win?” &c were open. I can’t see their status now, but check them all if you haven’t.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 16:53
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:I refreshed a few times a day around convention time and got in on Clinton YES but not Trump NO. thanks
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 16:54
|
|
|
mastershakeman posted:what the hell, predictit has maximum traders on markets like prez? is it worth refreshing or is that market totally done for? They have a traders limit on every market on the site - it's part of the rules that allow them to operate along with the limits on deposits and limits on number of shares. People are always needing to pull their money out for one reason or another, so taking effort to check on it every so often should get you in eventually.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 17:19
|
|
|
Hope no one hopped on the "free" Jill Stein at 3% poll market this time around. I did pretty well flipping No up from 20c.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 17:27
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Hope no one hopped on the "free" Jill Stein at 3% poll market this time around. Fortunately not this time. What do you think about Johnson flipping? He's just under 8 when you take off the 4 oldest polls. Might pull it off, but 85 seems way generous.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:Fortunately not this time. What do you think about Johnson flipping? He's just under 8 when you take off the 4 oldest polls. Might pull it off, but 85 seems way generous. I think they're not going to pull off that NBC 12 with 32k participants without also pulling off the CNN 7, putting him at exactly 8. Then again, the trend seems to be going against him, and especially after Aleppo, another poll might ruin this market. I'm not bought in on this market but I think 85 sounds like a good price.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 18:23
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:Fortunately not this time. What do you think about Johnson flipping? He's just under 8 when you take off the 4 oldest polls. Might pull it off, but 85 seems way generous. One of those four is NBC/SM. The Survey Monkey poll is a weekly that is going to be replaced soon. It has hit 11 or 12 in each of the past four weeks. The new poll won't be dropped and will probably be an 11. With that in mind, I think 85/15 is fair pricing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 18:38
|
|
|
I just made $40 today from morons who think abuela is going to die or drop out. Is..is this what neoconservatism is? 
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2016 23:51
|
|
|
theflyingexecutive posted:I just made $40 today from morons who think abuela is going to die or drop out. Is..is this what neoconservatism is? Remember death doesn't even count, per the rules. Also it's down to 89-87 buy/sell at the moment. I just had to fill up my last third with 90! 
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 00:36
|
|
|
theflyingexecutive posted:I just made $40 today from morons who think abuela is going to die or drop out. Is..is this what neoconservatism is? I don't even know what to think. There is even a Bernout in the comments who thinks that Bernie will swoop in a white knight and savage Trump WHEN Hillary drops out. I'm in at 89
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 01:43
|
|
|
C7ty1 posted:Remember death doesn't even count, per the rules. Oh I'm playing USPREZ not drop out. Bernie keeps making charges and it's just amazing how delusional Bernouts are. They have concrete loving evidence the DNC was loving them and they still think they'll get a nomination
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 02:15
|
|
|
I have all my money in Biden at 7c, Bernie at 4c and Kaine at 2c. Should i sell any now for a minor loss or hope for further arzying?
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 02:18
|
|
|
There are much stronger walls preventing jumps like we saw today and yesterday, I don't think we're gonna break out very far and all that speculating will stop dead as soon as Hillary is healthy. So it's just a bet rn on how sick you think she is.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 02:56
|
|
|
Oiled and Ready posted:I have all my money in Biden at 7c, Bernie at 4c and Kaine at 2c. Should i sell any now for a minor loss or hope for further arzying? The only non-insane pick is Kaine at 2c, but you're basically betting on how frothy the insane gamblers will get so it's tough to say, really. I doubt Kaine will do much frothing because no one actually cares about him.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 03:03
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:The only non-insane pick is Kaine at 2c, but you're basically betting on how frothy the insane gamblers will get so it's tough to say, really. I doubt Kaine will do much frothing because no one actually cares about him. America isn't ready for our first Dad President. Also, anyone watching / in on the 49er political protest market? Insane swings right now as the market keeps rushing back and forth on virtually nothing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 03:10
|
|
|
Protest market still swinging around. Pretty sure it's a No.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 03:24
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Protest market still swinging around. Pretty sure it's a No. Yeah it's chilled now. It's a NO unless you really think there was some mysterious 3rd person kneeling somewhere. Still NOs at 95c right now!
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 03:28
|
|
|
Looking at the rules it seems there's going to be 48 hours of waiting around before this market actually closes. Gambling on cheap YES shares might still be viable given how ridiculous these kinds of markets act.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 03:41
|
|
|
BCRock posted:Looking at the rules it seems there's going to be 48 hours of waiting around before this market actually closes. Gambling on cheap YES shares might still be viable given how ridiculous these kinds of markets act. PI could close it early if they wanted. The 48 hour delay is for cases where enough players did kneel—they’d still have to state their intentions.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 03:53
|
|
|
C7ty1 posted:Yeah it's chilled now. It's a NO unless you really think there was some mysterious 3rd person kneeling somewhere. Still NOs at 95c right now! Lol yeah it's over, looks like I made $30, woo.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 05:50
|
|
|
Literally jonesin' for next week's TvC market.
|
|
#
?
Sep 13, 2016 21:37
|
|
|
EngineerSean posted:Literally jonesin' for next week's TvC market. What are you thinking? I made a good amount betting b5 NO for a while, but that stopped last week. I keep expecting Clinton to start heading back up, but the electorate appears to feel otherwise!
|
|
#
?
Sep 14, 2016 10:25
|
|
|
Nosre posted:What are you thinking? I made a good amount betting b5 NO for a while, but that stopped last week. I keep expecting Clinton to start heading back up, but the electorate appears to feel otherwise! She's seeing a dip in polls due to her weak flesh being revealed to the masses. She might pick back up in a few days, or she might remain in a slump until the first debate. Holy poo poo, they now have TvC specifically for FL.
|
|
#
?
Sep 14, 2016 15:40
|
|
|
Do I dare bet on anything involving Florida?
|
|
#
?
Sep 14, 2016 15:54
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:Do I dare bet on anything involving Florida? Like all bets on PI: don't bet on what you think will happen, bet on what other people think will happen.
|
|
#
?
Sep 14, 2016 17:27
|
|
|
Nosre posted:What are you thinking? I made a good amount betting b5 NO for a while, but that stopped last week. I keep expecting Clinton to start heading back up, but the electorate appears to feel otherwise! Yeah no matter what your political opinion is, I think you have to accept that this week is going to be a bloodbath for Hillary. I just made bets on the TvC.Florida poll that are similar.
|
|
#
?
Sep 14, 2016 19:50
|
|
|
Well whoever said Trump was a lock in ME CD2 appears to have been proven correct. T +10 in the latest poll.
|
|
#
?
Sep 15, 2016 03:41
|
|
|
At what price-point should I put all my $25 on Clinton winning?
|
|
#
?
Sep 15, 2016 04:21
|
|
|
RandomPauI posted:At what price-point should I put all my $25 on Clinton winning? Probably before the debates and probably before she gets healthy. That's if you can get in on the main market, you might have to bet on the woman president or VP markets as a proxy
|
|
#
?
Sep 15, 2016 05:16
|
|
|
RandomPauI posted:At what price-point should I put all my $25 on Clinton winning? If you believe she's going to win: right now, probably.
|
|
#
?
Sep 15, 2016 05:42
|
|
|
It’s not wrong to say that Clinton YES (and all equivalent markets) likely won’t get cheaper. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that you should park all your money there right now. You have to ask yourself: how much do I think Clinton YES shares rise in the next month? Will there be the potential to get them cheap during a temporary panic? Are there any other bets I can make between now and then that have better returns than holding Clinton YES? Definitely put your foot in the door with single shares in each market, though. It would suck to be ready to put your money in next month and be unable to because the market has hit its trader cap.
|
|
#
?
Sep 15, 2016 14:34
|
|
|
I think how low can Hillary go comes down to if you think there is another medical episode.
|
|
#
?
Sep 15, 2016 18:23
|
|
|
RandomPauI posted:At what price-point should I put all my $25 on Clinton winning? Put an order in at 59c for any of these three markets, that's my guess for her lowest price. Unfortunately you can't directly bet on Hillary winning the presidency anymore. https://www.predictit.org/Market/1296/Which-party-will-win-the-2016-US-Presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/Market/2370/Who-will-be-elected-vice-president-in-2016 https://www.predictit.org/Contract/769/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-President-in-2016#data
|
|
#
?
Sep 16, 2016 16:29
|
|
|
As always Don't Bet On Polls, but you can get a share of TvC B1.NO, B2.NO, and B3.NO for effectively 76c right now and it's gotta be the safest way to get a 25% return in a week. It's at C+1.5 right now but there has been no good news for Clinton while Trump just had a humanizing performance on Jimmy Fallon on top of everything else that has happened in the past few days.
|
|
#
?
Sep 16, 2016 16:32
|
|
|
EngineerSean posted:Put an order in at 59c for any of these three markets, that's my guess for her lowest price. Unfortunately you can't directly bet on Hillary winning the presidency anymore. Do they allow you to get in line if the market is locked? If so I would recommend putting in a single buy at .99 so you can jump in whenever the opportunity arises
|
|
#
?
Sep 16, 2016 18:16
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:Do they allow you to get in line if the market is locked? If so I would recommend putting in a single buy at .99 so you can jump in whenever the opportunity arises They do not. As soon as you click the button, this is what it says: 
|
|
#
?
Sep 16, 2016 18:54
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 20:41 |
|
|
Keep trying. I got in twice since it first filled, and I was only checking a couple times per week.
|
|
#
?
Sep 16, 2016 19:01
|
|
