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Well guys if the New Hampshire state primary yesterday is any indication than we won't be announcing the presidential results for 3 days. I can't believe towns are still counting. Or rather the counters went to bed and are resuming counting this morning.
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Sep 14, 2016 11:45
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OhFunny posted:Well guys if the New Hampshire state primary yesterday is any indication than we won't be announcing the presidential results for 3 days. Presidential elections don't gently caress around. Theyll be done much faster because of all the attention. A lot more goes into it. I'm still with whoever it was that said it'll be called for Hillary before CA polls close.
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Sep 14, 2016 11:51
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I doubt that. I think it will be clear she won before those polls close, but she won't actually win until she gets those votes, and networks don't like to call results before the polls close
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Sep 14, 2016 11:54
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Trump just found a hidden block in South Carolina and it had a star in it. I don't know guys, I think he may just become the superstar...
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Sep 14, 2016 11:57
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greatn posted:I doubt that. I think it will be clear she won before those polls close, but she won't actually win until she gets those votes, and networks don't like to call results before the polls close Part of my reasoning here is the PST states aren't contentious at all for either party. So the two hours extra counting will eliminate Trump completely.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:00
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lol this was called back in August, that the race would go back from being a 15+ point Hillary race to a 6-7 point Hillary race. Trump still needs to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado in some combination of four in order to have a viable path. He's not winning four of those. He'll be lucky to win even one of those. He seems to be looking for some mythical rust belt Atlantis with 100 million voters and 100 EVs that doesn't exist, and also New York for some reason. He's still not even bothering on a GOTV operation, his organization is run by idiots that are antagonistic to the RNC, and the RNC is shuffling money towards senate races still because they can't afford to run the whole national campaign without their candidate. If you're freaking out, take the advice of some of the other posters and take a month off, do a hobby, or volunteer for a campaign so you can actually do something constructive instead.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:08
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Uh oh, Trump just threw down a blue shell! Hillary's done for! 
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Sep 14, 2016 12:09
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Senate's a coin flip and will remain one until after the dust settles.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:18
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TheOneOutside posted:lol this was called back in August, that the race would go back from being a 15+ point Hillary race to a 6-7 point Hillary race. I'm sorry, this race is not a six point race. Try two or three.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:19
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poo poo, she just activated his trap card! Is Trump going to be the Duel Master?
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Sep 14, 2016 12:21
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Kinda been buried between the Arzying and the bottom of last page, but the Newsweek article is mindbogglign to me. This is all public domain stuff, how has this stuff not been vetted before he even announced his bid for candidacy?
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Sep 14, 2016 12:23
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Pretty sure everyone thought he was a joke candidate and didn't bother.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:25
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CelestialScribe posted:I'm sorry, this race is not a six point race. Try two or three. Nope, if it were two or three she'd be under the 300 EV margin consistently for a week.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:25
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A random snippet because holy poo poo:quote:This relationship puts Trumps foreign policies in conflict with his financial interests. Earlier this year, he said South Korea should plan to shoulder its own military defense rather than relying on the United States, including the development of nuclear weapons. (He later denied making that statement, which was video-recorded.) One of the primary South Korean companies involved in nuclear energy, a key component in weapons development, is Trumps partnerDaewoo Engineering and Construction. It would potentially get an economic windfall if the United States adopted policies advocated by Trump.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:29
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Well, either baskets or pneumonia or both tanked her numbers. As...ugh...celestial scribe...points out, even if a poll is lovely (and the LAT one is), it's reliable so it's picking up a trend. That kinda sucks, and if the election happened today it might be enough to pull the assload of states trump needs to eke out a 270-268 win (every swing state plus that ME district.) Fortunately the election isn't held today and perhaps whoever these remaining swing idiots are who change their opinion from week to week will go back in the HRC column if the race reverts to Clinton doing nothing of note while Trump continues bashing himself in the dick.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:32
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The question is: will anyone give a poo poo at all.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:32
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FactsAreUseless posted:The question is: will anyone give a poo poo at all. Front page CNN right now
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Sep 14, 2016 12:34
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canepazzo posted:Here is the full Newsweek article. Kind of disappointing to be honest. I know that this is important, but how much of the electorate is going to think about the likelihood of Trump being influenced by foreign money literally pouring into his pockets? The NeverHillary people sure as gently caress won't care
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Sep 14, 2016 12:36
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I am concerned that the NewsWeek article is both too complicated and too superficially similar to the Clinton Foundation "scandal" for people to really understand or care.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:39
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QuarkJets posted:Kind of disappointing to be honest. I know that this is important, but how much of the electorate is going to think about the likelihood of Trump being influenced by foreign money literally pouring into his pockets? The NeverHillary people sure as gently caress won't care I don't think NeverHillaries would care about anything short of him making GBS threads on an american flag (and they'd still probably find excuses as to why that is ok anyway); that article is more for the undecideds, I'd say.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:39
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CelestialScribe posted:I'm sorry, this race is not a six point race. Try two or three. So what are you doing about it? Are you phone banking? Knocking on doors? Trying to work to change the race in anyway? Or just posting here in a tizzy? Yes, we have to win. Have to, this time. So go out and work for it.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:39
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40% of the voters will crawl over broken glass, rusty nails, and CS posts to vote Trump. However, only 3-5% of the electorate, max, will vote Trump that isn't in that group. Edit: to be fair Hillary has the same 40%. Islam is the Lite Rock FM fucked around with this message at 12:52 on Sep 14, 2016 |
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Sep 14, 2016 12:43
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QuarkJets posted:Kind of disappointing to be honest. I know that this is important, but how much of the electorate is going to think about the likelihood of Trump being influenced by foreign money literally pouring into his pockets? The NeverHillary people sure as gently caress won't care Pneumonia coverage was enough to swing that LA Times poll by 5-6 points. It doesn't even matter what's being covered at this point. Feels like the electorate just reacts to whatever the negative story of the week is.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:44
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Oh, that 5pts USC/LA poll from earlier? Assumes 18% black vote for Trump. That seems a tiny bit high to me?
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Sep 14, 2016 12:45
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lol add Qaddafi to the long list of people from whom Trump has stolen moneyquote:But for the Trump Organization, Qaddafi was not a murdering terrorist; he was a prospect who might bring the company financing and the opportunity to build a resort on the Mediterranean coast of Libya. According to an Arab financier and a former businessman from the North African country, Trump made entreaties to Qaddafi and other members of his government, beginning in 2008, in which he sought deals that would bring cash to the Trump Organization from a sovereign wealth fund called the Libyan Investment Authority. The following year, Trump offered to lease his estate in Westchester County, New York, to Qaddafi; he took Qaddafis money but, after local protests, forbade him from staying at his property. (Trump kept the cash.) I made a lot of money with Qaddafi, Trump said recently about the Westchester escapade. He paid me a fortune.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:48
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Remember when Mitt Romney got attacked for his blind trusts having conflicts of interest and he correctly pointed out that it was a blind trust so how the gently caress would he have known? And people cared? Trump has some magical NOTHING MATTERS forcefield.
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Sep 14, 2016 12:54
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National polls already aren't that useful, and the LAT one is particularly bad. PEC still has Clinton at 83/90% chance to win  it's gonna be ok, particularly if you donate or volunteer!
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Sep 14, 2016 12:55
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National polls are plenty useful because they drag state polls with them. Nothing we've seen indicates that when Clinton had a massive lead it was because of California and New York while OH and FL stood still. Similarly, Trump isn't making all his gains in Texas while the swing states remain unchanged. The LAT poll isn't accurate, but it IS reliable. It's like a broke-rear end thermometer that thinks it's always four degrees warmer than it really is. Still plenty useful so long as you remember its bias. None of the tracking models have a way of factoring in "campaign-fuckuping fuckups," either. Arguably, they shouldn't, since all campaigns have stupid real or media-made gaffes that turn out not to make a difference. (Proceed governor and there you go again are cited as game changers when there's no evidence either did anything.) but if for some stupidass reason baskets or pneumonia is somehow a massive permanent fuckup, it's going to take a while for models to reflect that since they have to see it in polling. I still think HRC is going to win, obviously, but let's not poo poo on the LAT poll or pick out single findings like the AA vote in an effort to discredit it. That way lies unskewing.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:05
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CelestialScribe posted:That's something, at least. it's because not everyone has a mental illness like you. also at least some people here understand how polls work, and electoral maps.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:08
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botany posted:it's because not everyone has a mental illness like you. also at least some people here understand how polls work, and electoral maps. I'm personally leaning towards CS being a really lame troll that will make a ~puppetmaster~ post after the election. But being literally retarded is very plausible.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:13
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nachos posted:Front page CNN right now Hopefully this and the Trump Foundation investigation scandal get some consistent coverage.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:14
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Night10194 posted:Hopefully this and the Trump Foundation investigation scandal get some consistent coverage.  yeah right, hillary clinton will fart or something today thus justifying the media spending no time on how trump is literally being bribed by foreign governments.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:17
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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/colin-powell-calls-trump-national-disgrace-hacked-emails-n648011quote:The contents of the emails were first reported by Buzzfeed News. It said the messages had been obtained by the website DCLeaks.com which MSNBC reported is rumored to have ties to Russian intelligence services. I hope Trump starts making GBS threads on Colin Powell on Twitter about this. That would be pretty hilarious.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:17
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CelestialScribe posted:I'm sorry, this race is not a six point race. Try two or three. Toxx you spineless coward.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:18
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canepazzo posted:Oh, that 5pts USC/LA poll from earlier? Assumes 18% black vote for Trump. That seems a tiny bit high to me? Up from NaN, eh?
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Sep 14, 2016 13:19
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axeil posted:
Totally excited for the Liz Spayd article on why three front page stories on Hillary farts while ignoring Trump being entangled with foreign governments is cool and why we are all stupid for questioning the New York Times' judgement.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:21
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canepazzo posted:A random snippet because holy poo poo: How a man who is such an obvious incompetent con artist crook got this close to the presidency based solely on misplaced white rage at losing complete dominance absolutely should shame us for decades to come.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:22
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TheOneOutside posted:If you're freaking out, take the advice of some of the other posters and take a month off, do a hobby, or volunteer for a campaign so you can actually do something constructive instead. When Finnish newspapers started doing thinkpieces about Hillary's "health crisis" I decided I'd had enough of this poo poo. I'm not paying any attention other than the occasional podcast. If Trump wins because someone got dehydrated and had an episode of pneumonia, bring on the nuclear holocaust.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:23
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There's a difference between poll unskewing and pointing out problems with methodology/the fact that it's a huge outlier. Unskewing as a term originated in the last couple cycles with completely unreasonable people fabricating fantastical reasons from whole cloth that +6 polls for Obama meant Romney was actually up 5. Here we are looking at one national poll that is outside the MOE of every well-regarded pollster; at least 9 points different than those of some highly-rated neutral pollsters (ABC) and 9 points different than conservative pollsters (Rasmussen). Problems with the questions used by LAT/USC poll have already been discussed here, and 538 adjusts it to Trump +1 plus they don't even have a rating for it. It is possible for a bad poll to be reliable and consistent, especially a tracker. That doesn't somehow make it worth arzying all over this thread about it. emdash fucked around with this message at 13:27 on Sep 14, 2016 |
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Sep 14, 2016 13:24
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Geostomp posted:How a man who is such an obvious incompetent con artist crook got this close to the presidency based solely on misplaced white rage at losing complete dominance absolutely should shame us for decades to come. Same reason Fox News plays cash for gold commercials. They know how to work their audience.
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Sep 14, 2016 13:25
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