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alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night

Chokes McGee posted:

Just got caught up on the birtherism coverage. S...something mattered? :aaa:

Yup, turns out getting pneumonia matters a whole loving lot.

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DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

Chokes McGee posted:

Just got caught up on the birtherism coverage. S...something mattered? :aaa:

Nah, Trump will say something today along the lines of "sure, I believe Obama was born in the US, btw Hillary started it", the media will swallow it without any further questions, and we'll go back to things not mattering.

EwokEntourage
Jun 10, 2008

BREYER: Actually, Antonin, you got it backwards. See, a power bottom is actually generating all the dissents by doing most of the work.

SCALIA: Stephen, I've heard that speed has something to do with it.

BREYER: Speed has everything to do with it.

Radish posted:

I mean it's totally ridiculous with any sort of thought. So this kid has a toy gun he knows is fake. What possible realistic reason could he have to point that at an officer? If the gun was real you could make the claim he just lost the quick draw, but with a toy he points and then what? It's such an obvious lie but it's all you need to make sensible people say "well then this is ok and certainly no reason to think that maybe there is a severe problem where an unarmed child can be killed by an agent of the state and then the justice system says that is totally fine (but of course regrettable)."

Presumably people will say: kid points (fake) gun at cops, cop sees (fake) gun and then takes cover/stops chasing the kid, and kid gets away. How is the cop to know????

It's dumb to ascribe that rationale to a scared 13 year old kid running for the cops, or to assume that in that situation a 13 year old kid (or anyone else really) is capable of making rational decisions, but, you know, SCARY BLACK PEOPLE

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Radish posted:

Trump is losing:

Women
African Americans
Latinos
Muslims
Catholics
Mormons
College educated white men
LGBT
and apparently not great with moderate Republicans

but still is gaining ground nationally and now winning swing states. I just don't understand. I'm hoping that the day after the election it comes out that uneducated white males were significantly over-sampled but Trump losing practically every demographic while still being very competitive is mind boggling.

If I remember correctly trump needs to win about 70% of white male vote to win the election. He is polling 64ish from what I've seen.

Edit: this is if we go by 2012 numbers I'll add.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Radish posted:

but still is gaining ground nationally and now winning swing states. I just don't understand.

I have to agree. The demographics have been telling the same story all along, I think we're just seeing the polls reflecting enthusiasm. Clinton supporters are less enthused currently and not answering polls as frequently. I expect the debates to be a major correcting point.

I also don't think Trump is guaranteed to "win" the first debate in the eyes of the media anymore. As the race "draws closer" his level of expectations for performance increase. If anything, the media seems poised to jump on a "Comeback kid Hillary knocks Trump out of the lead!" narrative.

On Terra Firma
Feb 12, 2008

Radish posted:

Trump is losing:

Women
African Americans
Latinos
Muslims
Catholics
Mormons
College educated white men
LGBT
and apparently not great with moderate Republicans

but still is gaining ground nationally and now winning swing states. I just don't understand. I'm hoping that the day after the election it comes out that uneducated white males were significantly over-sampled but Trump losing practically every demographic while still being very competitive is mind boggling.

Uneducated white people hate the other and there are a lot of them. That's all there is to it.

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

WeAreTheRomans posted:

In fact, Hannah Arendt's whole thesis is that the literal Nazis were "friends and neighbours and people you've spent your whole life around"

Sometimes they're even your boyfriend.

duz
Jul 11, 2005

Come on Ilhan, lets go bag us a shitpost


Hodgepodge posted:

If you ever find yourself on the wrong end of ethnic or religious violence, you're going to find that friends and neighbors really, really want to rape you and/or beat you to death.

Good morning goons!

As depicted in the documentary series The Purge.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

WampaLord posted:

I have to agree. The demographics have been telling the same story all along, I think we're just seeing the polls reflecting enthusiasm. Clinton supporters are less enthused currently and not answering polls as frequently. I expect the debates to be a major correcting point.

I also don't think Trump is guaranteed to "win" the first debate in the eyes of the media anymore. As the race "draws closer" his level of expectations for performance increase. If anything, the media seems poised to jump on a "Comeback kid Hillary knocks Trump out of the lead!" narrative.

And again: Trump absolutely, 100% cannot handle being genuinely unscripted. They've kept him on the prompter and to prepared statements, but there is still a very real chance he genuinely shits himself in the debates.

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

Samurai Sanders posted:

He didn't admit any fault so no, nothing continues to matter.

alpha_destroy posted:

Yup, turns out getting pneumonia matters a whole loving lot.

DaveWoo posted:

Nah, Trump will say something today along the lines of "sure, I believe Obama was born in the US, btw Hillary started it", the media will swallow it without any further questions, and we'll go back to things not mattering.

No. Not this time. I choose to believe this matters. :)

We'll see though :negative:

Cthulhumatic
May 21, 2007
Not dreaming...just turned off.
Every article/post I've seen about the birther bit is calling bullshit on Trump saying that Hillary started it. Even CNN.

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
Huh, I didn't know Kaine wants raped/abused girls to get approval from a loving court for their abortions if they are under 18. What the gently caress. I guess I haven't been much attention to his Catholicism and Virginianess. Heard on his NPR interview.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Radish posted:

Trump is losing:

Women
African Americans
Latinos
Muslims
Catholics
Mormons
College educated white men
LGBT
and apparently not great with moderate Republicans

but still is gaining ground nationally and now winning swing states. I just don't understand. I'm hoping that the day after the election it comes out that uneducated white males were significantly over-sampled but Trump losing practically every demographic while still being very competitive is mind boggling.

I'll go and dig up the crosstabs from the prior Fox News polls and give my results. Bear with me it may be a bit.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Night10194 posted:

And again: Trump absolutely, 100% cannot handle being genuinely unscripted. They've kept him on the prompter and to prepared statements, but there is still a very real chance he genuinely shits himself in the debates.

What has me worried is that even if he shits the bed at the debates so badly that Hannity can't say with a straight face he did well, his campaign is smart enough to schedule some fluff interview for half an hour later so that the water is muddied the next day.

iospace posted:

I'll go and dig up the crosstabs from the prior Fox News polls and give my results. Bear with me it may be a bit.

That would be interesting thanks.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Radish posted:

What has me worried is that even if he shits the bed at the debates so badly that Hannity can't say with a straight face he did well, his campaign is smart enough to schedule some fluff interview for half an hour later so that the water is muddied the next day.

Haha, no. The debates are huge, huge stories that get ultra-analyzed for days afterwards. There's no way to shift the story away from the debates with some fluff piece, he'd have to do something ~shocking~ which generally has not worked out for him.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo

fits my needs posted:

Huh, I didn't know Kaine wants raped/abused girls to get approval from a loving court for their abortions if they are under 18. What the gently caress. I guess I haven't been much attention to his Catholicism and Virginianess. Heard on his NPR interview.

That's, if anything, treating it as any other medical procedure: minors typically need parental consent to be treated for anything, and providing a formal avenue to get treated without parental consent is a good thing

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


WampaLord posted:

Haha, no. The debates are huge, huge stories that get ultra-analyzed for days afterwards. There's no way to shift the story away from the debates with some fluff piece, he'd have to do something ~shocking~ which generally has not worked out for him.

Fair enough and good point, I am just starting to question everything I understand about the political process after the hair stroking of a white supremacist on TV.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Radish posted:

Fair enough and good point, I am just starting to question everything I understand about the political process after the hair stroking of a white supremacist on TV.

Jimmy Fallon is a despicable spineless twerp.

30 TO 50 FERAL HOG
Mar 2, 2005



WampaLord posted:

Haha, no. The debates are huge, huge stories that get ultra-analyzed for days afterwards. There's no way to shift the story away from the debates with some fluff piece, he'd have to do something ~shocking~ which generally has not worked out for him.

I'm sure CNN will find some way to lick that boot

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


mcmagic posted:

Jimmy Fallon is a despicable spineless twerp.

This I do not question however.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

greatn posted:

Then you are complicit in Putin's. And who would YOU rather have bombing you?

America. Always America. America bombs only those whom deserve it, as determined through our democratic processes.

bowser
Apr 7, 2007

https://twitter.com/Jenny_Trout/status/776763119917989888

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

My Imaginary GF posted:

America. Always America. America bombs only those whom deserve it, as determined through our democratic processes.

CNN?

FairGame
Jul 24, 2001

Der Kommander

mcmagic posted:

Jimmy Fallon is a despicable spineless twerp.

And did you know he had Donald Trump on last night?

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Radish posted:

Fair enough and good point, I am just starting to question everything I understand about the political process after the hair stroking of a white supremacist on TV.

I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise?

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

FairGame posted:

And did you know he had Donald Trump on last night?

:trumppop:

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Night10194 posted:

I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise?

Letterman would've NEVER done that. I don't even think Leno would've.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
The boring thing about a "totally radical candidate" is that people will bitch and moan about any little thing and then not back down because "he broke the rules, he can do it again!"

Then again, people were doing literally the exact same thing with Willard "Mitt" Romney and he has the personality of aged cheese.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Night10194 posted:

I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise?

Letterman savaged Limbaugh back in the day. It's totally one thing to have Trump on your show and not do a hit on him for being a racist because you are the nice guy of Late Night but the line is actively petting him.

Like I can't imagine Conan having Trump on and just goofing and having fun with the guy.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

The beauty of democratic institutions with free and fair elections without state monopoly over free speech is that any organization is free to express their values in a manner which forces a politician to fear losing votes by not initiating a bombing campaign.

The process works, and it is the process which makes America great. Unfortunately, Donald Trump is a carnival barker who is not influenced by a free press.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Radish posted:

Trump is losing:

Women
African Americans
Latinos
Muslims
Catholics
Mormons
College educated white men
LGBT
and apparently not great with moderate Republicans

but still is gaining ground nationally and now winning swing states. I just don't understand. I'm hoping that the day after the election it comes out that uneducated white males were significantly over-sampled but Trump losing practically every demographic while still being very competitive is mind boggling.

Many of these demographics are either relatively small (Mormons, LGBT) compared to straight white men, or have historically low voting rates (Latinos) compared to straight white men. A lot of polls, I think, are assuming that past voting patterns hold true in the upcoming election, which means that white men and women turn out at much higher rates than most of the minority groups you outlined above. A lot of the Clinton hope even when polls tighten is stemming from a) a belief that Trump is such a uniquely bad candidate that he will drive greater turnout among groups that typically do not vote at high rates, and b) a belief that Clinton's much better ground game will help drive turnout among Democratic voters compared to Republican ones. Neither of these effects would necessarily show up in polls because polls tend not to release their Likely Voter calculations, so we don't actually know what makes them think one person will vote and another won't. It's possible they're basing it on past turnout rates, it's possible they're basing it on questions the person is asked, it's likely a combination of both plus other factors. We don't really know.

However, those two beliefs are just that, beliefs. Not facts. The only facts we've got are a tightening in the polls. In 2012, afair, Obama outperformed his own polling in key states by a point or two, likely due to his much better ground game compared to Romney, so maybe that same effect will hold true this year, but again we're relying on two unpollable assumptions.

Put simply, the Trump Coalition polls much better than the Clinton Coalition because historically speaking the Trump Coalition is much more likely to actually vote. Whether or not the unique factors of this election are enough to bridge that gap the way they were in 2008 and 2012 remains to be seen.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

vyelkin posted:

Many of these demographics are either relatively small (Mormons, LGBT) compared to straight white men, or have historically low voting rates (Latinos) compared to straight white men. A lot of polls, I think, are assuming that past voting patterns hold true in the upcoming election, which means that white men and women turn out at much higher rates than most of the minority groups you outlined above. A lot of the Clinton hope even when polls tighten is stemming from a) a belief that Trump is such a uniquely bad candidate that he will drive greater turnout among groups that typically do not vote at high rates, and b) a belief that Clinton's much better ground game will help drive turnout among Democratic voters compared to Republican ones. Neither of these effects would necessarily show up in polls because polls tend not to release their Likely Voter calculations, so we don't actually know what makes them think one person will vote and another won't. It's possible they're basing it on past turnout rates, it's possible they're basing it on questions the person is asked, it's likely a combination of both plus other factors. We don't really know.

However, those two beliefs are just that, beliefs. Not facts. The only facts we've got are a tightening in the polls. In 2012, afair, Obama outperformed his own polling in key states by a point or two, likely due to his much better ground game compared to Romney, so maybe that same effect will hold true this year, but again we're relying on two unpollable assumptions.

Put simply, the Trump Coalition polls much better than the Clinton Coalition because historically speaking the Trump Coalition is much more likely to actually vote. Whether or not the unique factors of this election are enough to bridge that gap the way they were in 2008 and 2012 remains to be seen.

A basket full of deplorables on e-day keeps the Obama 2.0 away

parcs
Nov 20, 2011
What will you do if Trump wins?

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Radish posted:

That would be interesting thanks.

Alright, only doing RVs here because this last FNC poll was the first LV poll they did, so can't do apples to apples, by their own admittance. The crosstab labels change for some weird reason, but what can you do? Also the more recent poll is broken down more.

This is the most recent poll:
code:
                                                                        Non-  White  White
                          Total   Dem   Rep   Ind   Men  Women  White  White    Men  Women
Clinton/Kaine               46%   87%    7%   36%   38%    53%    35%    72%    29%    41%
Trump/Pence                 43%    6%   86%   41%   49%    37%    53%    18%    59%    47%
(Other)                      2%    1%    2%    2%    3%     1%     2%     1%     3%     1%
(Wouldn't vote)              5%    4%    2%   13%    6%     5%     6%     4%     5%     6%
(Don't know)                 5%    3%    3%    7%    5%     5%     5%     5%     5%     5%

                                   White   White   White  White No                        Sub-
                                 College      No  Degree    Degree          Sub-         urban
                          Total   Degree  Degree     Men       Men  Urban  urban  Rural  Women 
Clinton/Kaine               46%      45%     28%     34%       25%    57%    44%    39%    50% 
Trump/Pence                 43%      43%     60%     50%       65%    31%    44%    50%    39% 
(Other)                      2%       2%      2%      3%        3%     2%     2%     1%     1% 
(Wouldn't vote)              5%       7%      5%      7%        3%     6%     5%     5%     4% 
(Don't know)                 5%       4%      5%      5%        4%     3%     6%     4%     6%

                                  Under                     Under                       White         Likely
                          Total  Age 35  35-54   55+   65+   $50k  $50k+   Lib  Cons  Evangel Veteran  Voter 
Clinton/Kaine               46%     47%    42%   48%   46%    55%    41%   79%   20%      20%     25%    45% 
Trump/Pence                 43%     39%    45%   44%   46%    33%    48%   11%   70%      70%     62%    46% 
(Other)                      2%      1%     3%    *%    1%     1%     2%    1%    1%       2%      2%     2% 
(Wouldn't vote)              5%      9%     6%    2%    2%     5%     5%    6%    4%       3%      5%     3% 
(Don't know)                 5%      3%     5%    6%    5%     7%     3%    3%    5%       5%      6%     4%
Start of August poll (highest Hillary numbers)
code:
                                                                               College      No
                           Total   Dem   Rep   Ind   Men  Women  White  Black   Degree  Degree
Democrats Hillary           49%   87%   12%   33%   40%    57%    39%    87%      47%     50%
Clinton and Tim Kaine
Republicans Donald Trump    39%    5%   78%   41%   45%    34%    49%     4%      38%     40%
and Mike Pence
(Other)                      5%    3%    4%   12%    7%     3%     5%     6%       6%      4%
(Wouldn't vote)              4%    2%    2%   10%    6%     2%     4%     1%       4%      4%
(Don't know)                 4%    3%    4%    3%    3%     5%     4%     3%       5%      3%

                                  Under                     Under               Very  Smwht    White
                          Total  Age 35  35-54   55+   65+   $50k  $50k+   Lib  Cons   Cons  Evangel  Veterans 
Democrats Hillary           49%     54%    42%   51%   55%    51%    48%   81%   18%    26%      19%       39% 
Clinton and Tim Kaine     
Republicans Donald Trump    39%     28%    46%   40%   38%    35%    40%    9%   77%    57%      69%       53% 
and Mike Pence            
(Other)                      5%      9%     6%    2%    2%     6%     5%    5%    2%     6%       4%        4% 
(Wouldn't vote)              4%      8%     3%    2%    1%     3%     3%    3%    2%     4%       3%        1% 
(Don't know)                 4%      3%     3%    5%    4%     4%     3%    3%    1%     6%       4%        4%
The big thing that stands out is the shift of Republicans supporting Hillary back to Trump. Most of the drop though seems to be apparent in the age brackets, under 35 and 55+ were for her, now under 35 is less supportive and 55+ is even.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Are we sure Mormons are still against Trump? I thought the polls in Utah had gone back to what they usually are for a Republican candidate in the general.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

Night10194 posted:

I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise?

Seth Myers still has a standing ban on Trump on his show, I believe.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


iospace posted:

Alright, only doing RVs here because this last FNC poll was the first LV poll they did, so can't do apples to apples, by their own admittance. The crosstab labels change for some weird reason, but what can you do? Also the more recent poll is broken down more.

This is the most recent poll:
code:
                                                                        Non-  White  White
                          Total   Dem   Rep   Ind   Men  Women  White  White    Men  Women
Clinton/Kaine               46%   87%    7%   36%   38%    53%    35%    72%    29%    41%
Trump/Pence                 43%    6%   86%   41%   49%    37%    53%    18%    59%    47%
(Other)                      2%    1%    2%    2%    3%     1%     2%     1%     3%     1%
(Wouldn't vote)              5%    4%    2%   13%    6%     5%     6%     4%     5%     6%
(Don't know)                 5%    3%    3%    7%    5%     5%     5%     5%     5%     5%

                                   White   White   White  White No                        Sub-
                                 College      No  Degree    Degree          Sub-         urban
                          Total   Degree  Degree     Men       Men  Urban  urban  Rural  Women 
Clinton/Kaine               46%      45%     28%     34%       25%    57%    44%    39%    50% 
Trump/Pence                 43%      43%     60%     50%       65%    31%    44%    50%    39% 
(Other)                      2%       2%      2%      3%        3%     2%     2%     1%     1% 
(Wouldn't vote)              5%       7%      5%      7%        3%     6%     5%     5%     4% 
(Don't know)                 5%       4%      5%      5%        4%     3%     6%     4%     6%

                                  Under                     Under                       White         Likely
                          Total  Age 35  35-54   55+   65+   $50k  $50k+   Lib  Cons  Evangel Veteran  Voter 
Clinton/Kaine               46%     47%    42%   48%   46%    55%    41%   79%   20%      20%     25%    45% 
Trump/Pence                 43%     39%    45%   44%   46%    33%    48%   11%   70%      70%     62%    46% 
(Other)                      2%      1%     3%    *%    1%     1%     2%    1%    1%       2%      2%     2% 
(Wouldn't vote)              5%      9%     6%    2%    2%     5%     5%    6%    4%       3%      5%     3% 
(Don't know)                 5%      3%     5%    6%    5%     7%     3%    3%    5%       5%      6%     4%
Start of August poll (highest Hillary numbers)
code:
                                                                               College      No
                           Total   Dem   Rep   Ind   Men  Women  White  Black   Degree  Degree
Democrats Hillary           49%   87%   12%   33%   40%    57%    39%    87%      47%     50%
Clinton and Tim Kaine
Republicans Donald Trump    39%    5%   78%   41%   45%    34%    49%     4%      38%     40%
and Mike Pence
(Other)                      5%    3%    4%   12%    7%     3%     5%     6%       6%      4%
(Wouldn't vote)              4%    2%    2%   10%    6%     2%     4%     1%       4%      4%
(Don't know)                 4%    3%    4%    3%    3%     5%     4%     3%       5%      3%

                                  Under                     Under               Very  Smwht    White
                          Total  Age 35  35-54   55+   65+   $50k  $50k+   Lib  Cons   Cons  Evangel  Veterans 
Democrats Hillary           49%     54%    42%   51%   55%    51%    48%   81%   18%    26%      19%       39% 
Clinton and Tim Kaine     
Republicans Donald Trump    39%     28%    46%   40%   38%    35%    40%    9%   77%    57%      69%       53% 
and Mike Pence            
(Other)                      5%      9%     6%    2%    2%     6%     5%    5%    2%     6%       4%        4% 
(Wouldn't vote)              4%      8%     3%    2%    1%     3%     3%    3%    2%     4%       3%        1% 
(Don't know)                 4%      3%     3%    5%    4%     4%     3%    3%    1%     6%       4%        4%
The big thing that stands out is the shift of Republicans supporting Hillary back to Trump. Most of the drop though seems to be apparent in the age brackets, under 35 and 55+ were for her, now under 35 is less supportive and 55+ is even.

Bummer but thanks.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Also, if you expected Jimmy Fallon to hardball Trump... Why? Why would you expect /any/ of the night show people to hardball him unless it's Jon loving Stewart or John Oliver (both of which Trump would never go on)? Colbert, sure, maybe, but he also wants to keep his job. You don't go on a late show to get hardballed, you go on it to make yourself look more down to earth.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

FlamingLiberal posted:

Are we sure Mormons are still against Trump? I thought the polls in Utah had gone back to what they usually are for a Republican candidate in the general.

Yeah I was actually going to mention this but forgot. Mormons aren't against Trump. They view him unfavorably but they view Clinton even more unfavorably. When PPP polled Utah back in August Clinton was tied for third among Mormons, with Trump 44, McMullin 13, Clinton and Johnson each 12.

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vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

iospace posted:

Also, if you expected Jimmy Fallon to hardball Trump... Why? Why would you expect /any/ of the night show people to hardball him unless it's Jon loving Stewart or John Oliver (both of which Trump would never go on)? Colbert, sure, maybe, but he also wants to keep his job. You don't go on a late show to get hardballed, you go on it to make yourself look more down to earth.

Yeah when Clinton went on Jimmy Kimmel he didn't grill her about her emails, he had her open a pickle jar. Late night comedians aren't exactly Woodward and Bernstein.

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