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Chokes McGee posted:Just got caught up on the birtherism coverage. S...something mattered? Yup, turns out getting pneumonia matters a whole loving lot.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:07 |
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# ? Jun 10, 2024 06:00 |
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Chokes McGee posted:Just got caught up on the birtherism coverage. S...something mattered? Nah, Trump will say something today along the lines of "sure, I believe Obama was born in the US, btw Hillary started it", the media will swallow it without any further questions, and we'll go back to things not mattering.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:07 |
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Radish posted:I mean it's totally ridiculous with any sort of thought. So this kid has a toy gun he knows is fake. What possible realistic reason could he have to point that at an officer? If the gun was real you could make the claim he just lost the quick draw, but with a toy he points and then what? It's such an obvious lie but it's all you need to make sensible people say "well then this is ok and certainly no reason to think that maybe there is a severe problem where an unarmed child can be killed by an agent of the state and then the justice system says that is totally fine (but of course regrettable)." Presumably people will say: kid points (fake) gun at cops, cop sees (fake) gun and then takes cover/stops chasing the kid, and kid gets away. How is the cop to know???? It's dumb to ascribe that rationale to a scared 13 year old kid running for the cops, or to assume that in that situation a 13 year old kid (or anyone else really) is capable of making rational decisions, but, you know, SCARY BLACK PEOPLE
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:07 |
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Radish posted:Trump is losing: If I remember correctly trump needs to win about 70% of white male vote to win the election. He is polling 64ish from what I've seen. Edit: this is if we go by 2012 numbers I'll add.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:08 |
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Radish posted:but still is gaining ground nationally and now winning swing states. I just don't understand. I have to agree. The demographics have been telling the same story all along, I think we're just seeing the polls reflecting enthusiasm. Clinton supporters are less enthused currently and not answering polls as frequently. I expect the debates to be a major correcting point. I also don't think Trump is guaranteed to "win" the first debate in the eyes of the media anymore. As the race "draws closer" his level of expectations for performance increase. If anything, the media seems poised to jump on a "Comeback kid Hillary knocks Trump out of the lead!" narrative.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:09 |
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Radish posted:Trump is losing: Uneducated white people hate the other and there are a lot of them. That's all there is to it.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:10 |
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WeAreTheRomans posted:In fact, Hannah Arendt's whole thesis is that the literal Nazis were "friends and neighbours and people you've spent your whole life around" Sometimes they're even your boyfriend.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:13 |
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Hodgepodge posted:If you ever find yourself on the wrong end of ethnic or religious violence, you're going to find that friends and neighbors really, really want to rape you and/or beat you to death. As depicted in the documentary series The Purge.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:13 |
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WampaLord posted:I have to agree. The demographics have been telling the same story all along, I think we're just seeing the polls reflecting enthusiasm. Clinton supporters are less enthused currently and not answering polls as frequently. I expect the debates to be a major correcting point. And again: Trump absolutely, 100% cannot handle being genuinely unscripted. They've kept him on the prompter and to prepared statements, but there is still a very real chance he genuinely shits himself in the debates.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:15 |
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Samurai Sanders posted:He didn't admit any fault so no, nothing continues to matter. alpha_destroy posted:Yup, turns out getting pneumonia matters a whole loving lot. DaveWoo posted:Nah, Trump will say something today along the lines of "sure, I believe Obama was born in the US, btw Hillary started it", the media will swallow it without any further questions, and we'll go back to things not mattering. No. Not this time. I choose to believe this matters. We'll see though
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:19 |
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Every article/post I've seen about the birther bit is calling bullshit on Trump saying that Hillary started it. Even CNN.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:19 |
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Huh, I didn't know Kaine wants raped/abused girls to get approval from a loving court for their abortions if they are under 18. What the gently caress. I guess I haven't been much attention to his Catholicism and Virginianess. Heard on his NPR interview.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:19 |
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Radish posted:Trump is losing: I'll go and dig up the crosstabs from the prior Fox News polls and give my results. Bear with me it may be a bit.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:20 |
Night10194 posted:And again: Trump absolutely, 100% cannot handle being genuinely unscripted. They've kept him on the prompter and to prepared statements, but there is still a very real chance he genuinely shits himself in the debates. What has me worried is that even if he shits the bed at the debates so badly that Hannity can't say with a straight face he did well, his campaign is smart enough to schedule some fluff interview for half an hour later so that the water is muddied the next day. iospace posted:I'll go and dig up the crosstabs from the prior Fox News polls and give my results. Bear with me it may be a bit. That would be interesting thanks.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:22 |
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Radish posted:What has me worried is that even if he shits the bed at the debates so badly that Hannity can't say with a straight face he did well, his campaign is smart enough to schedule some fluff interview for half an hour later so that the water is muddied the next day. Haha, no. The debates are huge, huge stories that get ultra-analyzed for days afterwards. There's no way to shift the story away from the debates with some fluff piece, he'd have to do something ~shocking~ which generally has not worked out for him.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:24 |
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fits my needs posted:Huh, I didn't know Kaine wants raped/abused girls to get approval from a loving court for their abortions if they are under 18. What the gently caress. I guess I haven't been much attention to his Catholicism and Virginianess. Heard on his NPR interview. That's, if anything, treating it as any other medical procedure: minors typically need parental consent to be treated for anything, and providing a formal avenue to get treated without parental consent is a good thing
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:25 |
WampaLord posted:Haha, no. The debates are huge, huge stories that get ultra-analyzed for days afterwards. There's no way to shift the story away from the debates with some fluff piece, he'd have to do something ~shocking~ which generally has not worked out for him. Fair enough and good point, I am just starting to question everything I understand about the political process after the hair stroking of a white supremacist on TV.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:27 |
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Radish posted:Fair enough and good point, I am just starting to question everything I understand about the political process after the hair stroking of a white supremacist on TV. Jimmy Fallon is a despicable spineless twerp.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:28 |
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WampaLord posted:Haha, no. The debates are huge, huge stories that get ultra-analyzed for days afterwards. There's no way to shift the story away from the debates with some fluff piece, he'd have to do something ~shocking~ which generally has not worked out for him. I'm sure CNN will find some way to lick that boot
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:30 |
mcmagic posted:Jimmy Fallon is a despicable spineless twerp. This I do not question however.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:30 |
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greatn posted:Then you are complicit in Putin's. And who would YOU rather have bombing you? America. Always America. America bombs only those whom deserve it, as determined through our democratic processes.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:31 |
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https://twitter.com/Jenny_Trout/status/776763119917989888
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:31 |
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My Imaginary GF posted:America. Always America. America bombs only those whom deserve it, as determined through our democratic processes. CNN?
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:31 |
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mcmagic posted:Jimmy Fallon is a despicable spineless twerp. And did you know he had Donald Trump on last night?
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:32 |
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Radish posted:Fair enough and good point, I am just starting to question everything I understand about the political process after the hair stroking of a white supremacist on TV. I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise?
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:34 |
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FairGame posted:And did you know he had Donald Trump on last night?
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:34 |
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Night10194 posted:I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise? Letterman would've NEVER done that. I don't even think Leno would've.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:35 |
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The boring thing about a "totally radical candidate" is that people will bitch and moan about any little thing and then not back down because "he broke the rules, he can do it again!" Then again, people were doing literally the exact same thing with Willard "Mitt" Romney and he has the personality of aged cheese.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:36 |
Night10194 posted:I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise? Letterman savaged Limbaugh back in the day. It's totally one thing to have Trump on your show and not do a hit on him for being a racist because you are the nice guy of Late Night but the line is actively petting him. Like I can't imagine Conan having Trump on and just goofing and having fun with the guy.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:36 |
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Crowsbeak posted:CNN? The beauty of democratic institutions with free and fair elections without state monopoly over free speech is that any organization is free to express their values in a manner which forces a politician to fear losing votes by not initiating a bombing campaign. The process works, and it is the process which makes America great. Unfortunately, Donald Trump is a carnival barker who is not influenced by a free press.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:37 |
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Radish posted:Trump is losing: Many of these demographics are either relatively small (Mormons, LGBT) compared to straight white men, or have historically low voting rates (Latinos) compared to straight white men. A lot of polls, I think, are assuming that past voting patterns hold true in the upcoming election, which means that white men and women turn out at much higher rates than most of the minority groups you outlined above. A lot of the Clinton hope even when polls tighten is stemming from a) a belief that Trump is such a uniquely bad candidate that he will drive greater turnout among groups that typically do not vote at high rates, and b) a belief that Clinton's much better ground game will help drive turnout among Democratic voters compared to Republican ones. Neither of these effects would necessarily show up in polls because polls tend not to release their Likely Voter calculations, so we don't actually know what makes them think one person will vote and another won't. It's possible they're basing it on past turnout rates, it's possible they're basing it on questions the person is asked, it's likely a combination of both plus other factors. We don't really know. However, those two beliefs are just that, beliefs. Not facts. The only facts we've got are a tightening in the polls. In 2012, afair, Obama outperformed his own polling in key states by a point or two, likely due to his much better ground game compared to Romney, so maybe that same effect will hold true this year, but again we're relying on two unpollable assumptions. Put simply, the Trump Coalition polls much better than the Clinton Coalition because historically speaking the Trump Coalition is much more likely to actually vote. Whether or not the unique factors of this election are enough to bridge that gap the way they were in 2008 and 2012 remains to be seen.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:38 |
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vyelkin posted:Many of these demographics are either relatively small (Mormons, LGBT) compared to straight white men, or have historically low voting rates (Latinos) compared to straight white men. A lot of polls, I think, are assuming that past voting patterns hold true in the upcoming election, which means that white men and women turn out at much higher rates than most of the minority groups you outlined above. A lot of the Clinton hope even when polls tighten is stemming from a) a belief that Trump is such a uniquely bad candidate that he will drive greater turnout among groups that typically do not vote at high rates, and b) a belief that Clinton's much better ground game will help drive turnout among Democratic voters compared to Republican ones. Neither of these effects would necessarily show up in polls because polls tend not to release their Likely Voter calculations, so we don't actually know what makes them think one person will vote and another won't. It's possible they're basing it on past turnout rates, it's possible they're basing it on questions the person is asked, it's likely a combination of both plus other factors. We don't really know. A basket full of deplorables on e-day keeps the Obama 2.0 away
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:40 |
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What will you do if Trump wins?
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:41 |
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Radish posted:That would be interesting thanks. Alright, only doing RVs here because this last FNC poll was the first LV poll they did, so can't do apples to apples, by their own admittance. The crosstab labels change for some weird reason, but what can you do? Also the more recent poll is broken down more. This is the most recent poll: code:
code:
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:41 |
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Are we sure Mormons are still against Trump? I thought the polls in Utah had gone back to what they usually are for a Republican candidate in the general.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:42 |
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Night10194 posted:I understand that basically everything that helps 'humanize' Trump is awful and all, but, uh, were you really that surprised that a dumbass TV comic did stuff that might be unwise? Seth Myers still has a standing ban on Trump on his show, I believe.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:45 |
iospace posted:Alright, only doing RVs here because this last FNC poll was the first LV poll they did, so can't do apples to apples, by their own admittance. The crosstab labels change for some weird reason, but what can you do? Also the more recent poll is broken down more. Bummer but thanks.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:45 |
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Also, if you expected Jimmy Fallon to hardball Trump... Why? Why would you expect /any/ of the night show people to hardball him unless it's Jon loving Stewart or John Oliver (both of which Trump would never go on)? Colbert, sure, maybe, but he also wants to keep his job. You don't go on a late show to get hardballed, you go on it to make yourself look more down to earth.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:46 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:Are we sure Mormons are still against Trump? I thought the polls in Utah had gone back to what they usually are for a Republican candidate in the general. Yeah I was actually going to mention this but forgot. Mormons aren't against Trump. They view him unfavorably but they view Clinton even more unfavorably. When PPP polled Utah back in August Clinton was tied for third among Mormons, with Trump 44, McMullin 13, Clinton and Johnson each 12.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:46 |
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# ? Jun 10, 2024 06:00 |
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iospace posted:Also, if you expected Jimmy Fallon to hardball Trump... Why? Why would you expect /any/ of the night show people to hardball him unless it's Jon loving Stewart or John Oliver (both of which Trump would never go on)? Colbert, sure, maybe, but he also wants to keep his job. You don't go on a late show to get hardballed, you go on it to make yourself look more down to earth. Yeah when Clinton went on Jimmy Kimmel he didn't grill her about her emails, he had her open a pickle jar. Late night comedians aren't exactly Woodward and Bernstein.
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# ? Sep 16, 2016 14:48 |