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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

OK, so final count up to where I mentioned this was a pattern:

15 basic "if Trump wins, X that means it won't matter" posts.

6 posts in this pattern making specific references to Trump setting up a fascist state.

9 posts in this pattern making specific references to post-apocalyptic science fiction.

This may be a bit inflated, but not by much. Al! was the first to do this, with a fascism reference post that was the fourth post in the thread. Kudos.

Fun fact: the posts have transitioned over time from fascism to nuclear/post-apocalyptic. Says something about how folks are viewing the stakes/what will happen with Trump.

You are now Thread Historian. Please keep a running tally.

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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Vox Nihili posted:

You are now Thread Historian. Please keep a running tally.

Nah, commenting on it distorts the phenomenon.


vvvv But I already did! Sorry, the sampling distribution is tainted.

Discendo Vox has issued a correction as of 03:46 on Sep 16, 2016

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

Nah, commenting on it distorts the phenomenon.

Good call. Keep a private tally and post it on November 7.

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.

Discendo Vox posted:

Nah, commenting on it distorts the phenomenon.


vvvv But I already did! Sorry, the sampling distribution is tainted.


you should post a graph showing the number of people per day who toxxed in here versus what hillary's poll numbers were that day

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



Instant Sunrise posted:

you should post a graph showing the number of people per day who toxxed in here versus what hillary's poll numbers were that day

Nah, make it a pie chart.

bunnyofdoom
Mar 29, 2008

I've been here the whole time, and you're not my real Dad! :emo:
Actually gently caress that. Just make pie.

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

bunnyofdoom posted:

Whoa whoa whoa, where's Bradley Whitford and Jon Spencer's corpse?
I'll need accomplices executive producers if I'm gonna get Leo's marionette rig working. I've got the arm movements down, but I just can't figure out how to do a scowl on command. As for Bradley, maybe he can man the catwalk and keep Leo staring in the proper direction, or I suppose we could do a Weekend at Bernies thing. I bet he'd be down for that.

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



bunnyofdoom posted:

Actually gently caress that. Just make pie.

Is that why Republicans hate her? She brought a pie to a cookie baking competition?

im gay
Jul 20, 2013

by Lowtax
We are hosed friends. I made a reddit account today.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

im gay posted:

We are hosed friends. I made a reddit account today.

Idiot.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART
as long as the reddit you post to is https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton then you're good

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Instant Sunrise posted:

you should post a graph showing the number of people per day who toxxed in here versus what hillary's poll numbers were that day

Too few data points, but it maps generally to greater activity in the subforum and the big good/bad news for either campaign.

AMorePerfctGoonion
Aug 11, 2016

by exmarx
Abuela is back!

http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/pol...WT.nav=top-news

She looks great. Those antibiotics sure did the trick. She should appear on Oprah and show everyone how healthy she is. After all, Oprah is besties with Obama - she helped him into the white house as much as anyone - I'm sure she could do him a favor.

Did anyone see Trumps appearance on Dr Oz? I kept wondering why Oz didn't ask Trump about his bright orange skin.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Discendo Vox posted:

Too few data points, but it maps generally to greater activity in the subforum and the big good/bad news for either campaign.

there's also outliers, like "people who are stupid and posted in the wrong thread"

counting myself there's at least 2

30 TO 50 FERAL HOG
Mar 2, 2005



Discendo Vox posted:

OK, so final count up to where I mentioned this was a pattern:

15 basic "if Trump wins, X that means it won't matter" posts.

6 posts in this pattern making specific references to Trump setting up a fascist state.

9 posts in this pattern making specific references to post-apocalyptic science fiction.

This may be a bit inflated, but not by much. Al! was the first to do this, with a fascism reference post that was the fourth post in the thread. Kudos.

Fun fact: the posts have transitioned over time from fascism to nuclear/post-apocalyptic. Says something about how folks are viewing the stakes/what will happen with Trump.

yeah so include me in the list of "it wont matter". if trump wins my forums account will be the least of my worries. ill be too busy trying to get 200 miles away from any major population center and building a cabin to survive nuclear armageddon

Scale Model Giant
Jan 19, 2009
:toxx:

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
gently caress it, I'll toxx for Mi Abuela. I started off the year all pro-Bernie gently caress-Hillary, but I've really come around on her. Despite some (hyped-up) shadiness in her past, she appears to have a genuine desire to help the needy, and she was an advocate of "gently caress the press dinner it's time to gently caress up Bin Laden", so she's cool in my book.

:toxx:

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

Goatman Sacks
Apr 4, 2011

by FactsAreUseless
I don't remember if I posted in here yet or not

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Goatman Sacks posted:

I don't remember if I posted in here yet or not

You have, but it's all good.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Goatman Sacks posted:

I don't remember if I posted in here yet or not

You should post more in here. It's a good thread full of future winners.

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.
it's the safest toxx thread on the forums

Nth Doctor
Sep 7, 2010

Darkrai used Dream Eater!
It's super effective!


Azathoth posted:

I'll need accomplices executive producers if I'm gonna get Leo's marionette rig working. I've got the arm movements down, but I just can't figure out how to do a scowl on command. As for Bradley, maybe he can man the catwalk and keep Leo staring in the proper direction, or I suppose we could do a Weekend at Bernies thing. I bet he'd be down for that.

I'm Dulé Hill in real life, count me in.

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

DemeaninDemon posted:

As soon as Trump pivots to the center and stops being a gently caress up.

He pretty much openly suggested someone try to assassinate her tonight, so I don't expect that to happen any time soon.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Instant Sunrise posted:

it's the safest toxx thread on the forums

The safest toxx ever made was when Assange was going on Hannity and I said he would say he had something about Clinton lined up.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

The safest toxx was actually the no indictment toxx.

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:
can you imagine, indicting her for minor violations of IT procedural security

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Vox Nihili posted:

The safest toxx was actually the no indictment toxx.

Yeah this one's second safest.

AMorePerfctGoonion
Aug 11, 2016

by exmarx
Cheeto's hit his ceiling and Clinton's hit her floor so we can only go up from here. This election is going to be decided by the debates, and 3 full debates will be enough to convince anyone who hasn't drunk the Trumpaid that he is totally unsuitable to be the president. Also the media have been acting like Clinton was a shoo-in but now with Trump being a real possibility it will make third party voters reconsider hopefully. Peaking too early might hurt Trump more than it helps him. And the press are finally calling him on his bullshit, some less so than others.

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

AMorePerfctGoonion posted:

Cheeto's hit his ceiling and Clinton's hit her floor so we can only go up from here. This election is going to be decided by the debates, and 3 full debates will be enough to convince anyone who hasn't drunk the Trumpaid that he is totally unsuitable to be the president. Also the media have been acting like Clinton was a shoo-in but now with Trump being a real possibility it will make third party voters reconsider hopefully. Peaking too early might hurt Trump more than it helps him. And the press are finally calling him on his bullshit, some less so than others.
I think this is a pretty good assessment and while I agree that Clinton's hit her floor, I don't think that Trump's hit his ceiling yet. The ground that Trump is making up doesn't seem to be coming at Hillary's expense as much as I'd expect if we were seeing some kind of fundamental shift rather than the expected tightening of the race that always occurs.

The four-way race has Hillary's vote share essentially unchanged since she lost her convention bounce, and in the two-way race, Hillary's lost about 1.5 points while Trump has gained 4, according to RCP anyways. My read of that is that Hillary's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week has made folks who are currently planning to vote Libertarian or Green less inclined to come back home and vote Democrat, but that very few people right now who say that they're voting Hillary over the other three options inclined to break rank and go Trump. It seems unlikely that if, after this week, folks still support Hillary even when given the third-party options, that they're not committed voters. Thus, I think what we're seeing right now represents Hillary's floor.

On the other hand, I think that Trump is seeing a lot of disgruntled Republican voters coming back home. He's had a good couple of weeks, and Campaign Shakeup Team 3.0 seems to actually keep him on message more than before, which is giving folks who really want to go Republican the cover to do so. Trump is currently on an upward swing, and I haven't seen signs of a plateau or decline yet. He's pretty close right now to his convention peak, if not right at it, and I think it remains to be seen if he can push through it and keep gaining support, or if he'll bump into the ceiling and start a downward slide.

Obviously, my hope is that we're seeing Hillary's floor slightly above Trump's ceiling, but there's way, way too many undecided and third-party protest voters in the polls for me to assume that Trump doesn't have additional room to grow. That's why Hillary must win those debates in the public mind, or at least take two out of three, or else things are gonna get real dicey on November 8. I think that she ultimately will come out ahead, but she's not a good debater, and Trump is a hell of a showman, so this isn't something that I'm taking as a given. There are a lot of voters who don't like both candidates and are gonna take what they see in the debates, or hear about the debates from other folks, to help make their final call.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
Trump's also pissing away any ground he gained.

Lastgirl
Sep 7, 1997


Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

DemeaninDemon posted:

Trump's also pissing away any ground he gained.

good im glad of it

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
yea if only to stop the panicking from some folks I'm glad Trump's decided to just poo poo the bid near instantly.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Tatum Girlparts posted:

yea if only to stop the panicking from some folks I'm glad Trump's decided to just poo poo the bid near instantly.

pretty sure he, in true Trump fashion, immediately both

1) vastly overestimated his own importance, an incredible feat considering how much he already gets people to believe he knows things
2) instantly abused his imaginary power

sounds like a winner

lozzle
Oct 22, 2012

by zen death robot

Azathoth posted:

but she's not a good debater

Says who?

Abuela is gonna kick his teeth in.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
It's Trump without a carefully crafted speech.

BluesShaman
Apr 25, 2016

She wore Blue Velvet.
This is my first post on somethingawful.com.

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

EmperorFritoBandito
Aug 7, 2010

by exmarx

BluesShaman posted:

This is my first post on somethingawful.com.

It is a fine post, congratulations

lozzle
Oct 22, 2012

by zen death robot

BluesShaman posted:

This is my first post on somethingawful.com.

:hfive: Welcome to the winning team.

Swedgin
Aug 22, 2006

by exmarx

lozzle posted:

Says who?

Abuela is gonna kick his teeth in.

yeah, Hillary may be a substandard orator but she's definitely an above-average debater

even Obama/his campaign staff readily admits she cleaned his clock in 2008

the trick for Abuela is achieving a careful balance between the two things she needs to do in the first debate: get voters to see her candidacy in a positive light, which includes addressing trust/transparency; and unsettle Trump enough so that he self-corncobs in front of the entire country. she can't be too aggressive in going after him because that undermines the work she needs to do with regards to making a positive case for herself, but she absolutely has to create the conditions within which he implodes

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Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

BluesShaman posted:

This is my first post on somethingawful.com.

I have seen far worse first posts.

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