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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wqOApBLPio jason kander is gonna win
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Sep 15, 2016 21:19
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Bernie was on the stump for McGinty yesterday
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Sep 18, 2016 19:14
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So, anyone want to make a House prediction? I'm thinking it'll be ~12 Dem pickups, give or take 4. (That's an 8-16 range). Dems need net 30 pickups to retake control of the House, but at the very least that result would mostly claw back from the disastrous loss of 13 seats in 2014 when Dems were already way down.
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Sep 18, 2016 19:52
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Patter Song posted:So, anyone want to make a House prediction? It's not lupus.
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Sep 18, 2016 20:16
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So why is Johnson going to lose in Wisconsin? Do people hate him, or is Feingold really well liked?
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Sep 18, 2016 20:33
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Ego-bot posted:So why is Johnson going to lose in Wisconsin? Do people hate him, or is Feingold really well liked? six of one, half dozen of the other
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Sep 18, 2016 22:15
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johnson always shrivels up in the wisconsin winter
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Sep 18, 2016 22:17
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johnson is widely regarded, even in Republican circles, as one of the dumbest motherfuckers alive it's a big part of why he's been a dead man walking even though he beat feingold once before, all the republican donors aren't interested in helping him since they figure it'd be a waste
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Sep 18, 2016 22:23
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Patter Song posted:So, anyone want to make a House prediction? I'm thinking it'll be ~12 Dem pickups, give or take 4. (That's an 8-16 range). Dems need net 30 pickups to retake control of the House, but at the very least that result would mostly claw back from the disastrous loss of 13 seats in 2014 when Dems were already way down. If things reasonably break their way, I could see Democrats going as high as 20 pickups, but that's sweeping all the contests that are currently up in the air, and to go further, they'd have to make inroads into solidly Republican districts and I just don't see that happening. Even if this turns into a wave election, which it sure isn't right now and hasn't really ever been this cycle, that their max is 25-28 pickups, and that would require Trump imploding and significantly driving down voter turnout and thus flipping a few medium red districts. It's really hard to overstate just how badly the current House districting screws Democrats in the short term. Their best hope of getting it back is to claw their way back into striking distance this election, then minimize damage in 2018, so that they can have a fighting chance of undoing the 2010 gerrymander-from-hell in 2020.
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Sep 18, 2016 22:43
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if they want to undo the gerrymander, they have to win enough state legislative and gubernatorial races, probably the majority of which are not on the same ballot as the president*, to pass the maps (or get scotus to force fair districting amendments somehow). even if this was a wave election they probably wouldn't be able to keep poo poo going through the other three years of the four-year cycle, because it's never happened with the post-final-death-spasms-of-the-jim-crow-democrat coalition scotus coming up with a 'test' that actually stops gerrymandering for political advantage is probably the best shot, and i don't know what kind of pretzels lawyers are twisting precedent into to go for or against that so i have no idea how likeliy it is, but i doubt they'd get something gop-proof ready for 2020. the best hope through the courts is probably tearing apart some of the gerrymanders before more than half of the elections set to run on the map have already been successfully cheated, which was the amazing bar set this last decade *i feel like this information must be contained in an article or something somewhere, i dont feel like doing the research myself
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Sep 18, 2016 23:19
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 this is the 2018 gubernatorial map. on top of that, Virginia and NJ are 2017 (bright colours are term limited/retiring, black unknown because the incumbent will get elected in 2016)
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Sep 19, 2016 00:42
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oystertoadfish posted:if they want to undo the gerrymander, they have to win enough state legislative and gubernatorial races, probably the majority of which are not on the same ballot as the president*, to pass the maps (or get scotus to force fair districting amendments somehow). even if this was a wave election they probably wouldn't be able to keep poo poo going through the other three years of the four-year cycle, because it's never happened with the post-final-death-spasms-of-the-jim-crow-democrat coalition Almost all state legislatures will be up in 2020 (barring weird cases like Virginia), but most governors won't be. The good* news is that Democrats were massacred so badly on the governor front in 2014 that even doing just OK will lead to a number of governor pickups in 2018, especially Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan, the former two because there's no loving reason they should have a GOP governor, the latter because the incumbent governor poisoned tens of thousands of his constituents. That said, Dems won't be in any better position to pick up state legislatures in 2020 than we are this year, because the legislatures are...gerrymandered. It's a bit of a vicious circle. *Not actually good EDIT: If Dems in Maine somehow gently caress up picking up that governor's mansion AGAIN for the third time...
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Sep 19, 2016 00:43
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^^i guess the hope is that they pass their instant runoff voting referendum, or whatever that situation is. that would be both trivially interesting and would effect political change, i think before trump showed up i was reading dke type liberal cheerleaders talking about how it'd be better to lose 2016 so the (apparently confidently assumed) midterm wave gets democrats those governors' mansions and such i doubt that argument holds together really under any circumstances (yeah lets give the gop the most powerful office on earth and cackle about how much better next decade will be when the 11 dominos after that one all fall in exactly the right sequence and timing) but especially with trump around either way liberals arent actually a majority of the country and all but one of the electorates in america (the ones that show up in years n+1 to n+3 of our four-year cycle) like republicans more than democrats. the fact that the gop fell over themselves trying to be franz von papen the moment an idiot reality tv star tore the facade off their base's hatred makes the gop a threat to american democracy, but i really doubt it'll change people's ingrained voting behavior at non-presidential levels given how little it's changed them on the presidential level. funny how that works
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Sep 19, 2016 00:47
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i've got bad news about marylandquote:The popularity of Gov. Larry Hogan continues to soar.
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Sep 19, 2016 00:47
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it took a surprisingly long time for snyder's approval rating to tank, given the circumstances. i was watching that one... happy that it finally did.
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Sep 19, 2016 00:52
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Zas posted:it took a surprisingly long time for snyder's approval rating to tank, given the circumstances. i was watching that one... happy that it finally did. All it took was smashing the unions, usurping local control across the state, and poisoning an entire city. The gently caress is wrong with my state?
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Sep 19, 2016 01:12
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Nth Doctor posted:All it took was smashing the unions, usurping local control across the state, and poisoning an entire city. The gently caress is wrong with my state? Heavily segregated and full of whites who would love for Jim Crow to come back to control those ferals murdering each other in the city
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Sep 19, 2016 01:20
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Patter Song posted:EDIT: If Dems in Maine somehow gently caress up picking up that governor's mansion AGAIN for the third time... Governor-For-Life Paul LePage is on to your bad attitude, Smoothy. You too, B-Money and Shifty. (God I hate that man; I hope my Maine-residing family can help boot him)
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Sep 19, 2016 07:59
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Rubio is still up by 8 in another recent Monmouth poll; I expect this to continue
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Sep 19, 2016 18:38
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who wants a lovely emerson poll? Well you're gonna get it! https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/777944343965425664
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Sep 19, 2016 20:06
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Imagine if Blunt and Burr lose but Toomey and Rubio hang on. No one would win their election day prediction contest then.
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Sep 19, 2016 20:21
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https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/777979219808747521
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Sep 19, 2016 22:23
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thanks for that, ive been neglecting the house races. they deserve to be neglected tho. but thanks sabato's site said 10-15 a week and a half ago http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-democrats-waiting-on-a-clinton-wave/ quote:As of now, Republican House incumbents have seemed largely insulated from Trump down the ballot. Yes, our current ratings do suggest that Democrats should net somewhere in the low double digits. If one assumes that all the Safe, Likely, and Leaning seats in fact vote that way, Republicans would have 227 seats, and Democrats would have 192, with 16 Toss-ups. Split the Toss-ups down the middle, and Republicans would have 235 House seats and Democrats would have 200, for a net gain of 12 for the Democrats. That’s actually a tiny downgrade for Democrats from our most recent ratings, which showed Democrats netting 13 seats if one allocated the Toss-ups evenly. But our basic projection of a Democratic gain of 10-15 seats remains unchanged.
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Sep 19, 2016 22:33
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5-20 is a uselessly wide range, Charlie Cook.
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Sep 19, 2016 22:39
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Patter Song posted:5-20 is a uselessly wide range, Charlie Cook. Our outlook is a Dem gain of 5d4 seats
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Sep 19, 2016 22:47
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Patter Song posted:5-20 is a uselessly wide range, Charlie Cook. It's not really worthwhile to go down the list and try to predict each race, since there's nearly no public polling on a lot of them, and the races tend to revert back to the results of Generic Democrat vs. Generic Republican anyways. Candidates just don't have that much ability to move the needle.
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Sep 19, 2016 23:00
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was there more house polling last time? i haven't been keeping up lately, but i get the impression there's less than in 2012. maybe it doesnt pick up until october?
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Sep 19, 2016 23:08
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oystertoadfish posted:was there more house polling last time? i haven't been keeping up lately, but i get the impression there's less than in 2012. maybe it doesnt pick up until october? If she gets back to that level, I expect to see public polling pick up, but there's little point otherwise.
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Sep 19, 2016 23:20
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FlamingLiberal posted:Rubio is still up by 8 in another recent Monmouth poll; I expect this to continue Rubio is not going to lose reelection. He's going to get reelected and then resign shortly after the new Congress is gaveled in, allowing Voldemort to pick a replacement (who might not have won an election on their own) while Rubio leaves for whatever cushy job he was promised when he agreed to run again. That or he'll stay a Senator through the term and manage to do even less than he has already.
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Sep 19, 2016 23:35
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Frank Guinta (R) of NH's 1st Congressional District just narrowly won his primary after lying about $355,000 in illegal campaign contributions from his parents. He'll face Carol Shea-Porter yet again for reelection. I bring this up because it really shows the impact of voter turnout between presidential and midterm elections. Carol Shea-Porter was first elected in 2006 and reelected in 2008. She lost to Guinta in 2010, defeated him in 2012, lost to him again in 2014, and will likely beat him in 2016.
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Sep 20, 2016 03:51
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OhFunny posted:Frank Guinta (R) of NH's 1st Congressional District just narrowly won his primary after lying about $355,000 in illegal campaign contributions from his parents.
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Sep 20, 2016 04:08
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:Our outlook is a Dem gain of 5d4 seats
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Sep 20, 2016 07:33
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The GOP classes get a d6, it's such bullshit 
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Sep 20, 2016 07:46
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oystertoadfish posted:incidentally some blog commissioned a professional poll of the Louisiana Senate race. Louisiana has its unique stupid election format, where theres no primary, every candidate from all parties runs on one ballot in November, and the top two have a December runoff. it's a better way for the gop than the California and Washington method of doing the same thing, but with a primary and the runoff in November, since you get the important election on the lower turnout date. anyway the link and results They forgot to ask about the most important candidate: Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford. (Yes, this is an actual name on the ballot. His position on abortion is "If you’re reading this, your momma was pro-life." Also wants to repeal the 17th amendment.)
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Sep 20, 2016 07:49
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:Our outlook is a Dem gain of 5d4 seats That gives an approximation of a normal distribution, but I expect bimodal distribution, or at least a flattened bell. A fractional of a point in national numbers means winning or losing multiple races. Democrats are up 10–11 seats only if the conditions are just right.
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Sep 20, 2016 07:58
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Evil Fluffy posted:Rubio is not going to lose reelection. He's going to get reelected and then resign shortly after the new Congress is gaveled in, allowing Voldemort to pick a replacement (who might not have won an election on their own) while Rubio leaves for whatever cushy job he was promised when he agreed to run again. That or he'll stay a Senator through the term and manage to do even less than he has already. Rubio isn't going to resign. If he wanted a cushy patronage job he would have lined it up already. He didn't walk back a year of "no I'm not running again, the senate sucks" to quit in 6 months. The only way you'll get rid of Rubio before his next term is up is if he becomes president in 2020. Sorry Florida dems, better luck in 2022.
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Sep 20, 2016 13:20
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The Nastier Nate posted:Rubio isn't going to resign. If he wanted a cushy patronage job he would have lined it up already. He didn't walk back a year of "no I'm not running again, the senate sucks" to quit in 6 months. The only way you'll get rid of Rubio before his next term is up is if he becomes president in 2020. Sorry Florida dems, better luck in 2022. unless.. https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/778277737848987648
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Sep 20, 2016 18:07
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Rubio still wants to be president, so he's gonna stick it out in the Senate until 2020 when he'll try to run for the Republican nomination again. If he doesn't get it, I think he'll push hard behind the scenes for the VP slot. If he doesn't get that, I'd expect him to then retire to a cushy lobbying and/or corporate job. Trying and failing to get the nomination twice (in 2016 and 2020) would likely eliminate any path to move from the Senate to the Presidency, but if he takes the VP nod, that opens up a new path if he wins. Retiring before 2020 would be a tacit admission that he's done with running for public office, and I don't see any signs that he's there yet.
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Sep 20, 2016 19:15
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rubio is gonna LOSE, book it
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Sep 20, 2016 19:22
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Zas posted:rubio is gonna LOSE, book it
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Sep 20, 2016 20:17
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