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anakha
Sep 16, 2009


CronoGamer posted:

Ugh Noynoy why couldn't you have dropped that boring tool Mar and supported Grace from the start

Utang na loob, I guess? Noy owes Mar for 'stepping aside' in 2010 when everybody knew Mar was gunning for the presidency then.

LP's skill in tearing down opponents was apparent even then: Manny Villar was far and away the leading candidate before the campaign period started, pretty similar to Binay's position before the corruption accusations came out.

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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Roxas wasn't going to let Poe take his shot at the Presidency after he already stepped aside once, and he'd been a part of the party and the cabinet long enough to have known all sorts of dirt to strongarm the party into backing him if they balked.

By late 2014, the only other competition for the Presidency was Binay, and the LP would have been confident of beating him, if he hadn't already preemptively been beaten by all his corruption cases.

Early 2015, and Poe makes sounds at running herself, and the LP has a fight on their hands, but if they consider Binay to already be done, then they focus their oppo research on Poe, and she's going to be torn down like Villar.

And you can see this in the polling - Poe starts with a strong "post-convention" bump, but keeps losing ground to Roxas as the weight of the attacks on her inexperience and doubtful citizenship take their toll.

But then Duterte uses his election law loophole to enter into the race three months late, and with a "we had to drag his rear end into the race, so you know he doesn't want any power for himself" sentiment behind him.

The LP gets blindsided, and they're never able to redirect their machine to stop Duterte in time, on top of a campaign strategy that isn't as savvy as Clinton's has in terms of leveraging social media and countering the right-wing disinformation machine.

CronoGamer
May 15, 2004

why did this happen
That sort of "next in line" entitlement is exactly why people couldnt stand Roxas though wasnt it? I mean in addition to being ineffective as DOTC chief. Grace was bogged down by the ridiculous citizenship questions but I was under the impression that a lot of the Rizalito David/Kit Tatad et al support for that was Roxas surrogates trying to drag her down (well, Tatad I guess, David I think just has a ridiculous grudge still from losing in 2013).

I guess you have a point that Roxas' thorough entrenchment in the LP gives him a lot of leverage but it just feels like Aquino's loyalty to him hosed things up. It was clear people weren't excited by Roxas. Wasn't Poe leading the pack from when the SC cleared her until a few weeks before the election when her husband's US military experience became an issue?

I mean say what you will about how it would have played out if she'd run for VP on the LP ticket, but I think it was fair for her to say she made a more inspiring candidate than Roxas.

CronoGamer fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Sep 21, 2016

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

CronoGamer posted:

That sort of "next in line" entitlement is exactly why people couldnt stand Roxas though wasnt it?
A little bit of yes, a little bit of that was one of the attack lines deployed against him.

CronoGamer posted:

Wasn't Poe leading the pack from when the SC cleared her until a few weeks before the election when her husband's US military experience became an issue?
Poe was ahead of Roxas in the late 2015 polls, but fell behind in the last two months prior to the election - yes, she was completely cleared of her citizenship issues, but by then some of the electorate had realized that Duterte was the clear and present danger and started shifting support to Roxas.

Or at least, that's my read what the polls meant.

CronoGamer posted:

I mean say what you will about how it would have played out if she'd run for VP on the LP ticket, but I think it was fair for her to say she made a more inspiring candidate than Roxas.
She did. She wasn't part of the administration and she didn't have all that ridiculous MRT/LRT, airport bullet and Yolanda scandals surrounding her.

Personally, I would've been completely fine tactically voting for her to prevent a Duterte presidency, but the "call to unite" or "call to switch parties" never came, and the last two weeks of polling showed Roxas in second place, so it was never practical to switch.

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008

Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!


This is a great thread, stay safe Filipino friends and preferably stay away from home for a bit. Especially if you're talking "seditious" poo poo online.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Other news to have come out of yesterday's events:

On the second day of the House's hearing of testimony from drug personalities out of the maximum security Bilibid prison, new allegations were leveled against Senator De Lima. Specifically, that while Bilibid prison was raided back in 2014 after the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group revealed that high-profile prisoners there were living the high life, that the raid was performed only after a number of delays, and without the participation of the CIDG. The implication would seem to be that the raid was either selective to only hit specific targets (as in not the drug lords cooperating with De Lima), or that the raid was only a sham, and that it was only conducted to give the illusion that then-DOJ Secretary De Lima was being tough on crime.

A second story on the same topic

===

The Atlantic ran a story on Rodrigo Duterte during the 80s and 90s, and as a Mayor, in an attempt to add context to who he is, and why he governs in the way he does.

===

We have video of Duterte saying "gently caress you" to the EU, and apparently he also raised his middle-finger, which I didn't get from the initial news reports. It's also hit the rounds of international news.

===

Senate Majority Leader Vicente Sotto III and Senator Manny Pacquiao released statements regarding the possibility of UN rapporteurs visiting the Philippines.

Sotto said that the UN has no right to criticize the Philippines for human rights violations when the UN advocates abortion, which he considers to be a violation of human rights all its own. He also said that if the UN would meddle in the affairs of the Philippines, that perhaps the Philippines should have the right to meddle in the affairs of the UN, which is an astoundingly ignorant statement to make in the face of the Philippines being a charter member of the UN.

Pacquiao said that the UN meddling in other nations's affairs was "bad", and I can't elaborate further than that because his statement reads at a grade-school level. He also parroted campaign talking points in the form of Duterte not actually wanting any power for himself as he is all doing this for the people, and closed out with the implication that the only reason there are so many killings in the Philippines is because we're not behaving ourselves enough.

===

In the meantime, killings do continue to happen across the country.

Wizchine
Sep 17, 2007

Television is the retina
of the mind's eye.
Would it help if some world leader said, "No, gently caress YOU, buddy" and flipped him off with both hands? Maybe follow that up with , "Now that we've got that out of the way, let's get back to the issues we've raised?"

Doc Fission
Sep 11, 2011



Can someone make an eagle crying emote for the Philippines? I feel like we're gonna need it.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I'm now having to do these in chronological order, since there are multiple bits of news.

#1

On Wednesday morning President Duterte made a statement amounting to the Philippines actually needing the US as an ally after all:

quote:

Mr. Duterte made the statement in the course of explaining his earlier remark that he might later ask US Special Forces to leave Mindanao to pave the way for talks with Muslim rebels, who have historical grievances from abuses suffered at the hands of the Americans.

“I never said get out of the Philippines, for after all, we need them there in the China Sea. We don’t have armaments,” President Duterte said.

He added that the Philippines was not ready to go to war with China, and he would not want it, because it would be a “massacre.”

Mr. Duterte however insisted that the Americans continue to look down on the Philippines.

“I really do not know what’s wrong with these Americans. They look at us as if we’re lowly,” he said.

He repeated his earlier lament over the FA-50 jets the country had acquired, which he said did not have missiles.


He said the Philippines had bought these from South Korea, but these were made with US technology. The Philippines could not have acquired the jets without US consent, he said.

This is the second time he's brought up the topic of the FA-50 fighter jets that the country recently bought, though at least this time he's been informed that they're not actually of American make, as when he fumed against them the first time.

Regardless, I'm starting to feel whiplash from these speeches and pronouncements.

#2

Continuing with the House probe into allegations of Senator De Lima being involved in drugs, today's topic was one of the inmates, a Jaybee Sebastian, reportedly receiving preferential treatment by the DOJ under De Lima. De Lima's counter to this is that Sebastian was actually a government asset, an informant, which is why he needed to be protected.

I can't really offer any more commentary on this as the allegations are just flying back and forth, and personally I don't trust the House committee as far as I can throw them.

#3

This Thursday afternoon, the President delivered another speech, this time during the inauguration of a new power plant.

Whereas his previous tirades were about not wanting to let the UN into the country because that was meddling and an intrusion on our national sovereignty, this time he dared them to come here.

quote:

In an impassioned speech made during the inauguration of a power plant in Misamis Oriential on Thursday, Duterte once again lashed out at his foreign critics.

“I am formally announcing the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, Ban Ki-sun —[or whatever that devil's name is]. I am inviting the EU, [their best and their brightest]. Send the best lawyers of your town. [Even the UN rapporteurs, they should go here to the Philippines]. I will write them a letter to invite them for an investigation,” Duterte said.

“But, in keeping with the time-honored principle of the right to be heard, [after they question me, I will get to question them. All of them! One-by-one.] In an open forum. You can use the Senate or [the] Folk Arts Center, whatever, everybody here will be invited. [Then you will all get to watch. You'll get to see how I will wipe the floor with these devils]” he added.

I've had to do my own translation, but the news report clearly states that "yawa", a word from Duterte's provincial dialect, directly translates into "devil".

#4

The next part of his speech was attacking the UN yet again, including raising his middle finger at the EU, yet again, less than 48 hours after he did it the first time:

quote:

MANILA, Philippines – President Rodrigo Duterte again cursed European Union (EU) officials in a speech on Thursday, September 22.

"[Until now, in the EU, they say, "He is known to issue warnings of killing criminals." I said, "gently caress you."]" said Duterte during a speech aired live on national television and social media. He was speaking at the inauguration of a power plant in Misamis Oriental.

This is the second time Duterte has hurled profanities at the EU. He said the same thing in an event in Davao City on September 20.

On Thursday, he said his curses at EU officials are borne out of frustration for their supposed lack of understanding of the drug "crisis" in the Philippines.

"Why are you complaining so much about me threatening the criminals of the drug syndicates if you consider the fact that we have now 3.7 million drug addicts? By that number alone, it would tell you it's a very serious problem," said a visibly angry Duterte.

On September 15, the European Parliament issued a statement calling on the Duterte government to "put an end" to extrajudicial killings in the Philippines.

While the parliament's members understand the consequences of drug addiction, they said they are also concerned by the "extraordinarily high numbers killed during police operations."

But Duterte said in his Thursday speech that extrajudicial killings "are not the work of the government." He said he is merely threatening criminals.

"You know, there is no crime at all in the Philippines that says I cannot threaten criminals," said the President.

His anger was also directed at United Nations rapporteurs and American "rapporteurs."

"[When I was mayor, it was alright for them to criticize me... But I'm President now and that son-of-a-whore rapporteur is lecturing me.]" said Duterte.

#5

The next part of his speech was attacking Senator De Lima, and specifically her sex life:

quote:

President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday launched another tirade on Senator Leila De Lima's personal life while mocking her for being unable to file a case against him when he was mayor of Davao City despite his alleged links to death squads in the city.

In a speech at an inauguration of a power plant in Misamis Oriental, Duterte slammed what he called De Lima's "propensity for sex."

“De Lima, she was seven years chairman of Human Rights. [She was harassing me. But she never filed a case] When she was Secretary of Justice, she was building a name at my [expense] [to become more popular]. Now what? She was not only screwing her driver, she was screwing the nation. [So now, where are the human rights? Whose papers did you use?] Where were the papers?” Duterte said.

“All the while because of her propensity for sex. [I've never encountered a woman before that would show herself on social media, smiling like a crazy person, as if nothing happened. Motherfucker (putang ina), if that was my own mother, I'd shoot her myself,]” he added.

Duterte had accused De Lima of having an affair with her former driver Ronnie Dayan. The president also alleged that Dayan was De Lima's link to the drug trade in the national penitentiary. De Lima has not denied the affair, but has denied that she is involved in illegal narcotics.

In his speech, Duterte denied links to the alleged Davao Death Squad, which De Lima had investigated when she was chairman of the Commission on Human Rights.

Disharmony
Dec 29, 2000

Like a hundred crippled horses lying crumpled on the ground

Begging for a rifle to come and put them down
You know what sucks about being someone who staunchly opposed Duterte for many years and most especially this past elections? Having to sit at the pantry for lunch with my coworkers who simply can't resist passive-aggressively mocking me for all the wrong reasons like "I lost track of how many!" in reference to his 'accomplishments' as if those are the ones people have an issue with.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Disharmony posted:

You know what sucks about being someone who staunchly opposed Duterte for many years and most especially this past elections? Having to sit at the pantry for lunch with my coworkers who simply can't resist passive-aggressively mocking me for all the wrong reasons like "I lost track of how many!" in reference to his 'accomplishments' as if those are the ones people have an issue with.

A lot of the stuff on those list are just things that he's said, or things that take a while to do but have gotten started, or poo poo that's just completely made-up.

But it's not like it's productive to actually try and disprove a 50-item gish gallop to people who won't listen anyway.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Here's a series of articles on the Senate hearings from today:

Cayetano, Pacquiao grill Matobato over conflicting claims
Matobato flip-flops on alleged Duterte role in Makdum slay
From one newbie to another: Pacquiao 'lectures' De Lima on rules
Matobato tells Senate: They can have me killed, I won't run

My personal take is that Matobato's credibility was further eroded with Senators Cayetano and Pacquiao free to badger him, with Gordon stepping in to head-off any attempts by De Lima to help Matobato.

As a further follow-up, it appears there was still more to Duterte's speech than in my previous post.

For one, he continued to speak out against the EU

quote:

Duterte already knows his first question to the foreign officials.

"[My first question to the rapporteur would be], 'I killed thousands? What was the name of the first victim? What happened? Where, for what reason, how was it done? What time was it?'" he said.

Duterte's invitation comes after Ban and several UN officials and rapporteurs publicly criticized his administration's "war" against drugs.

The President expressed his dismay with these international bodies again in his Thursday speech.

"[That's why I cursed. You'd think, with all their pontification – if they are so learned, why are we disrespected? Why is it like that?]" said Duterte.

Duterte has previously said he does not appreciate being lectured, preferring that criticism against him be lodged with the UN which would then reach out to his office

And then, in another speech later this same evening, he insisted that these statements of his are not damaging to the country:

quote:

MANILA, Philippines – He may curse at world leaders and threaten criminals, but President Rodrigo Duterte insists his mouth can't bring down the country.

"Do not keep complaining about my mouth because my mouth is not the problem. It cannot bring down a country," said Duterte on Thursday, September 22, during a speech in a police headquarters in Cagayan de Oro.

Duterte was in the middle of a tirade against human rights advocates and foreign officials who say his colorful threats against criminals contribute to the rise in extrajudicial killings in the country.

But the President said, "There is no law in the Philippines that says I cannot threaten criminals... [The issue here is not my mouth]."

"And I would say, the ratings [in the] business economy, eh [then] so be it, [leave the country]. Then we can start on our own. I can go to China, I can go to Russia. I have a talk with them. They are waiting for me, so what the hell?" he said.

His rebuke comes after credit rating agency Standard & Poor's maintained its stable outlook for the Philippine economy but said Duterte's public pronouncements have caused stability and predictability in policymaking to be "diminished somewhat."

Duterte explained that he uses curse words and crude language out of anger for the "hypocrisy" of his critics.

He used as an example the European Parliament which has urged his government to stop extrajudicial killings. But he points out that African migrants are dying at sea because of EU policies.

"EU, you pretended to be imbued with humanity. [But now many migrants are dying at sea.] You have stopped helping your fellow human beings. They are there dying [and then you're going to point at me for killing criminals?]" he said.

Duterte said he has lost respect for the EU.

"That's why I use slur, slang, or epithets. Why? [You make me lose respect for you] because you do not even investigate," said the President.

Communist Thoughts
Jan 7, 2008

Our war against free speech cannot end until we silence this bronze beast!


So is De Lima going to be killed or jailed or what? Shes a member of the ruling class so I assume she will just be arrested/exiled or otherwise shut up, it just remains to be seen how close to the edge of madness Duterte and his administration are willing to go, quite close it seems at the moment.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

nopantsjack posted:

So is De Lima going to be killed or jailed or what? Shes a member of the ruling class so I assume she will just be arrested/exiled or otherwise shut up, it just remains to be seen how close to the edge of madness Duterte and his administration are willing to go, quite close it seems at the moment.

She may well be jailed. The Aquino administration put three Senators in jail in 2014 over corruption charges, so it's happened before.

The big question is how railroaded is the trial going to be if and when it happens.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I've been suffering from a bit of outrage fatigue lately, and I feel like just posting Duterte's rants over and over again is going to make for a dreadful thread, so instead let's just pick at a very specific bit of news.

The President, and various members of his cabinet, and some of the administration-allied members of the Senate, have all rebuffed the UN sending rapporteurs and investigators into the country to look at the suspicions of human rights violations being committed during the prosecution of the War on Drugs.

That is, except for that quote I posted earlier where the President "dared" the UN to come here.

Well, they're coming here, next week:

quote:

MANILA, Philippines - The United Nations is sending an 18-man team to the Philippines on Sept. 28-29 to conduct a review of the human rights situation in the country.

The visit was announced amid President Duterte’s constant outbursts at the international community for calling his attention to rising cases of summary executions believed to be carried out by security forces and vigilantes in the conduct of his intensified war against illegal drugs.

The President had even called UN chief Ban Ki-moon a “fool” for voicing concern over the spate of killings.

The UN experts are from the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. As one of the 164 state signatories to the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), the Philippines is required to undergo regular review by the UN committee.

It was a “regular thing,” Department of Foreign Affairs spokesman Charles Jose said yesterday of the coming visit by human rights experts.

Jose, in a press briefing, stressed that the review would not cover alleged extrajudicial killings committed in the conduct of the administration’s war on drugs and criminality. He also said they were awaiting further instructions from the President regarding the sending of a letter-invitation to the UN and the European Union to probe the human rights situation in the Philippines.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the ICESCR and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). These treaties, together with the Universal Declaration on Human Rights, form the International Bill of Rights. A campaign by the UN Human Rights Office, entitled “Our Rights, Our Freedoms, Always,” is running throughout the year to promote and raise awareness of the two treaties, focusing on the timeless themes of rights and freedoms, in particular freedom from fear, of speech, of worship and freedom from want.

Aside from the Philippines, other states being reviewed by the UN are Costa Rica, Cyprus, Poland, Tunisia, Lebanon and the Dominican Republic.

The findings are expected to be published on Oct. 11.

Almost immediately afterwards, the government followed up by laying down some ground rules:

quote:

Special rapporteurs and rights experts from the United Nations and the European Union invited by President Duterte to investigate the growing number of deaths in the government’s war on drugs must comply with certain protocols and guidelines, Charles Jose, spokesperson for the Department of Foreign Affairs, said yesterday.

“UN special rapporteurs follow protocols set by host countries, that’s the process,” Jose said, adding that people to be interviewed and places that they intend to visit are subject to the approval of the government.

He said the Philippine government may not allow UN and EU experts to visit Manila’s sprawling slums and talk to families of victims there since “the safety of the rapporteurs is part of the protocols to be considered.”

“The protocols and guidelines to the investigation to be conducted by these rapporteurs include the list of people to be interviewed and places to be visited,” Jose said.

The department, through the Philippine Mission to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva and the Philippine Embassy in Brussels, would send official invitations for both to send a delegation to the Philippines. He did not give a time frame.

“These organizations need to agree to the protocols and parameters that we will set before they are allowed to visit the country,” Jose said.

And just this morning, our Foreign Secretary addressed the UN general assembly, essentially saying that they will brook no interference:

quote:

UNITED NATIONS, United States — The Philippines’ foreign secretary on Saturday pushed back against criticism of President Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war, telling the United Nations not to interfere.

“We urge everyone to allow us to deal with out domestic challenges in order to achieve our national goals, without undue interference,” Perfecto Yasay told the UN General Assembly.

There has been growing international alarm over the rising death toll from Duterte’s crackdown on crime, with human rights groups saying that security forces are engaging in extrajudicial killings.

Duterte won elections in a landslide in May after vowing to eradicate the illegal drug trade in six months, and promising that 100,000 criminals would be killed in the process.

Since he took office on June 30 about 3,000 people have been killed, about a third of them suspects shot dead by police and the rest murdered by unidentified attackers, according to police statistics.

“We have not and we will never empower our law enforcement agents to shoot-to-kill individuals suspected of drug crimes,” the foreign secretary told the General Assembly.

“Extrajudicial killings have no place in our society, and in our criminal justice system.”


The top diplomat told the General Assembly that Duterte enjoyed a 92-percent approval rating at home for his stance and suggested that his campaign was misunderstood.

“Our actions, however, have grabbed both the national headlines and international attention for all the wrong reasons,” he said.

He argued that corruption and drugs had “torn apart many of our communities, destroyed our families and snuffed out the hopes and dreams of our people — young and old — for a bright future.”

Invoking the UN’s new sustainable development goals adopted last year, Yasay said his country would not be able to meet those goals without tackling corruption and drugs.


Relations between Duterte and the United Nations have been tense after the newly-elected leader launched several tirades against the world body for its criticism of his tactics, even threatening to pull out- a threat he later withdrew.

Earlier this month, Duterte declined a meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on the sidelines of a meeting in Laos of South East Asian leaders.

blackguy32
Oct 1, 2005

Say, do you know how to do the walk?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/philippines-playing-dead-survive-duterte-drug-war-160922173054835.html

Interesting story about the drug war and puts a face to who these policies are affecting.

As always, don't read the comments. From what I can see, most defenders are taking a supreme nationalistic approach attacking anyone who dares criticizes for not being from there or not living there long enough.

One commenter nailed it in saying that this is primarily hurting the poor and that the people with real power still won't be touched.

blackguy32 fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Sep 25, 2016

Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines
I've stopped posting stuff on Facebook myself because it's honestly a losing battle. It's hosed up that things are so bad that we even have this notion of "outrage fatigue"; literally every day there's something new that I _should_ be posting about but no longer bother to because it's just futile. Plus, when the administration announces something that might actually be good for once, the Duterte supporters will post that all over and be smug like "SEE???" and I'm just uadfhasdfaf dfgds gdsf

CronoGamer
May 15, 2004

why did this happen
I'm also really loving sick of that "91% approval" line that every rear end keeps quoting. It is from a Pulse Asia survey that was conducted July 2-8... i.e., the first week of Duterte's presidency. It is a baseline that will show how people react to his policies and screw-ups after they take place, but everyone keeps goddamn pointing to it and saying "look, 91% approval, that means people are totally on board with extrajudicial killings," when it means nothing of the loving sort.

Also it was 91% trust not 91% approval but the hell if anyone pays attention to these things. Really looking forward to SWS or Pulse's next round in October or November to see if there is actually any impact.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
I've still been following Teddy Locsin Jr on twitter and holy moley

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/779645896023695360

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/779647098580930560

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/779646374199439360

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/779659107334627328

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
:drat:

I wonder if Twitter appreciates that at some point it is going to be the star witness in a future Nuremberg trial.

Disharmony
Dec 29, 2000

Like a hundred crippled horses lying crumpled on the ground

Begging for a rifle to come and put them down
errr

edit - We seriously need to crowd fund a Duterte Youth shirt or anything that parodies the nazi parallels the last few days. I would gleefully wear it in the office and on my daily commute.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Disharmony fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Sep 25, 2016

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

I'm curious about the context of the Drug War in the Philippines and why Duterte was able to hang his election campaign on the issue. Looking at crime statistics, the Philippines does stand out as especially violent for its region but it doesn't look particularly violent on a global scale. It's violent crime rate is a bit more than twice that of the United States and is comparable to Argentina, Paraguay and Peru, but is still dramatically less than that of those Latin American and Caribbean states most impacted by the drug trade like Colombia, Jamaica, and El Salvador. Is the Philippines an international transit or production hub for the narcotics trade?

I've heard that political assassinations are relatively common in the Philippines and often go unsolved. Why is the Philippines more violent than neighboring states with at least superficially similar histories like Indonesia?

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

gradenko_2000 posted:

I've been suffering from a bit of outrage fatigue lately, and I feel like just posting Duterte's rants over and over again is going to make for a dreadful thread, so instead let's just pick at a very specific bit of news.

The President, and various members of his cabinet, and some of the administration-allied members of the Senate, have all rebuffed the UN sending rapporteurs and investigators into the country to look at the suspicions of human rights violations being committed during the prosecution of the War on Drugs.

That is, except for that quote I posted earlier where the President "dared" the UN to come here.

Well, they're coming here, next week:


Almost immediately afterwards, the government followed up by laying down some ground rules:


And just this morning, our Foreign Secretary addressed the UN general assembly, essentially saying that they will brook no interference:

So is Duterte trying to make The Philippians a pariah state,(hell even a rogue nation) because it sounds like its headed that way fast. I mean the dude sounds like he is readying the military for a full power grab. I mean, what happens if that happens?

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I know wikileaks has garnered a reputation in the USPol thread for being a complete and utter Russian anti-Clinton/Democrat shill, but over here there's been some news over how leaked cables from 2009 describe Duterte as having openly admitted his involvement with the Davao Death Squad.

quote:

A confidential cable dated May 8, 2009, which was published by WikiLeaks, said that Duterte once "admitted complicity" in vigilante killings in Davao City.

The cable, written by then-US ambassador to the Philippines Kristie Kenney, quoted statements from then Commission on Human Rights (CHR) regional director Alberto Sipaco Jr.

Kenney wrote: "Commission on Human Rights regional director Alberto Sipaco (strictly protect) at a private meeting affirmed that Mayor Duterte knows about the killings and permits them. Recounting a conversation he once had with Duterte, who is his close friend and former fraternity brother, Sipaco said he pleaded with the Mayor to stop vigilante killings and support other methods to reduce crime, like rehabilitation programs for offenders."

"According to Sipaco, the Mayor responded, 'I'm not done yet,'" Kenney said.

Sipaco reportedly said he "repeatedly attempted to reason with Duterte that the killings were unlawful and detrimental to society, but Duterte refused to broach the issue."

"Sipaco expressed a sense of helplessness over the killings, as well as concern for his personal safety, but acknowledged that the CHR was taking its mission in Davao very seriously," Kenney said.

This is the actual wikileak cable transcript

Squalid posted:

I'm curious about the context of the Drug War in the Philippines and why Duterte was able to hang his election campaign on the issue.
The Macapagal-Arroyo administration, from 2001 to 2010, was mildly conservative, something like Gerald Ford, or perhaps Nixon's first term minus the violent foreign policy of Vietnam, but with about just as much corruption on the domestic side.

The Aquino administration, from 2010 to 2016, was your "bog-standard liberal" President, something like Jimmy Carter, or perhaps Obama's domestic policy minus the oratory.

Duterte was able to run on a platform of:

Liberal western democracy does not work. All it did was keep the gears for the last six years without fundamentally advancing the country's interests. Traffic is bad, people are still corrupt (despite Aquino having run on an anti-corruption platform) and violent crime is at an all-time high. I am a strongman from Davao who controlled that city with an iron fist - vote for me and we will implement that kind of strict discipline across the entire country. Yes, I will be authoritarian, but the time of democracy has passed. The Filipino people are too undisciplined, too free, too lenient, what we need now is discipline and obedience.

You're absolutely correct that the Philippines does not have an especially bad drug problem. It is a problem, don't get me wrong, but the idea that we are currently facing an existential crisis is largely up to the people accepting Duterte's press releases and fearmongering. When you say it for nine months straight, it starts to ring true.

People wanted something different, and the Duterte vote was as much "gently caress the establishment" as anything else, combined with a desire for us to elect a Lee Kuan Yew-type figure for whom we'd trade individual liberty for a shot at becoming as first-world as Singapore.

Squalid posted:

I've heard that political assassinations are relatively common in the Philippines and often go unsolved. Why is the Philippines more violent than neighboring states with at least superficially similar histories like Indonesia?
Our experience with Spanish colonization followed by a period of attempted Americanization and the inheritance of the Presidential system of American government probably puts us more in line with South American countries than our direct Southeast Asian neighbors.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

So is Duterte trying to make The Philippians a pariah state,(hell even a rogue nation) because it sounds like its headed that way fast. I mean the dude sounds like he is readying the military for a full power grab. I mean, what happens if that happens?
After the Philippines's experience with Ferdinand Marcos, Sr., who held the country in martial law from 1972 to 1986, our Constitution was rewritten, with one of the big changes being a single six-year term for a President instead of a four-year term with an eight-year term limit, as well as requiring Congress to approve a declaration of martial law.

In this context, the administration has been trying to play up how dreadfully dire the drug war situation is, ostensibly so that when the time does come to declare martial law, that Congress will go along and approve it.

Alternatively, Duterte has been visiting lots of military camps to cozy himself up to the military and to the police. See, during his mayoralty in Davao, he was somewhat chummy with the local Communist insurgency, and it was theorized that Duterte would not be able to execute a power-grab because the military would not be loyal to him because of that past. He's been trying to make up for lost ground ever since. In the event that Congress does not approve of a declaration of martial law, then he could also just execute a direct military takeover of the country and shut down Congress - a threat he was making ever since he was still campaigning.

Past that, it's assumed that "the Filipino people" would overthrow his rear end, much as what happened to Marcos in 1986, and again to our own Reaganesque figure former President Joseph Estrada in 2001*, but this isn't going to work either if enough people agree with Duterte, not to mention the fact that any revolution would necessarily involve a lot of lost lives, and would cause our democratic process to regress by about 10-20 years of relative stability.

* he was brought up on a massive corruption and plunder impeachment case, but when the impeachment trial was stonewalled by his allies, the nakedness of the Senatorial "buy-out" pissed off enough people that they took the streets and called for his ouster.

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012

Dapper_Swindler posted:

So is Duterte trying to make The Philippians a pariah state,(hell even a rogue nation) because it sounds like its headed that way fast. I mean the dude sounds like he is readying the military for a full power grab. I mean, what happens if that happens?

It largely depends on who's still willing to trade with them. China probably would and even start supplying weapons to sweeten the deal if it meant widening its sphere of influence against Japan and the US. If Duerte insults China and the Chinese as well, it might be a much bigger problem for the Philippines.

Mat Cauthon
Jan 2, 2006

The more tragic things get,
the more I feel like laughing.



How safe is it for US citizens to visit the Phillippines, specifically Manila, right now? My partner is Filipina and is planning to visit her family in December around Christmas time. I would imagine that being American would confer a fair amount of safety, and some of her family there apparently lives in something resembling a "compound" (they're modestly upper class, by all accounts), but if things are as gruesome as they sound maybe she'd be better off not going at all.

Mat Cauthon fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Sep 26, 2016

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Rap Record Hoarder posted:

How safe is it for US citizens to visit the Phillippines, specifically Manila, right now? My partner is Filipina and is planning to visit her family in December around Christmas time. I would imagine that being American would confer a fair amount of safety, and some of her family there apparently lives in something resembling a "compound" (they're modestly upper class, by all accounts), but if things are as gruesome as they sound maybe she'd be better off not going at all.
The Philippines is not, contrary to what this thread and the news might imply, a warzone. And if you're American and are going to the middle- and upper-class sections of the city, you're not going to feel any negative effects of the administration at all (which is partly why Duterte still enjoys large support - no blowback has set in).

Your partner should be fine.

Mat Cauthon
Jan 2, 2006

The more tragic things get,
the more I feel like laughing.



Yeah, that's what I figured. I don't think the Phillippines is the wild west by any means, I just wanted to double-check.

Deceitful Penguin
Feb 16, 2011

Zohar posted:

I've still been following Teddy Locsin Jr on twitter and holy moley

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/779659107334627328
hmmm stopped clock and all that

Rap Record Hoarder posted:

How safe is it for US citizens to visit the Phillippines, specifically Manila, right now? My partner is Filipina and is planning to visit her family in December around Christmas time. I would imagine that being American would confer a fair amount of safety, and some of her family there apparently lives in something resembling a "compound" (they're modestly upper class, by all accounts), but if things are as gruesome as they sound maybe she'd be better off not going at all.
the very loving moment you leave the plane, a horde of savage pinoys will descend upon you and rip you to shreds and bathe in your blood while they worship their corpse god figure christ


Or it's perfectly safe so long as you stick to the upper-middle class/tourist areas you big baby
The US gubbmint has a specific website just for scared whiners like you: https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings/philippines-travel-warning.html

Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines

Deceitful Penguin posted:

the very loving moment you leave the plane, a horde of savage pinoys will descend upon you and rip you to shreds and bathe in your blood while they worship their corpse god figure christ

Nah this only happens if you insult the Philippines and said remarks go viral

anakha
Sep 16, 2009


Argue posted:

Nah this only happens if you insult Duterte and said remarks go viral

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Deceitful Penguin posted:

hmmm stopped clock and all that
the very loving moment you leave the plane, a horde of savage pinoys will descend upon you and rip you to shreds and bathe in your blood while they worship their corpse god figure christ


Or it's perfectly safe so long as you stick to the upper-middle class/tourist areas you big baby
The US gubbmint has a specific website just for scared whiners like you: https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings/philippines-travel-warning.html

There's no need to be a complete rear end in a top hat.

Deceitful Penguin
Feb 16, 2011

tsa posted:

There's no need to be a complete rear end in a top hat.
I don't know man, I get questions like that all the time about pretty anywhere outside of the West in my sidejob and it just triggers something deep in me after too many questions about whether it's "safe to go" but I'm not allowed to answer like that at work

But yeah, I guess it was slightly outta line but I mean, come the heck on, SE-Asia is one of the safest places to park your honky rear end in the world

Scaramouche
Mar 26, 2001

SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

Rap Record Hoarder posted:

How safe is it for US citizens to visit the Phillippines, specifically Manila, right now? My partner is Filipina and is planning to visit her family in December around Christmas time. I would imagine that being American would confer a fair amount of safety, and some of her family there apparently lives in something resembling a "compound" (they're modestly upper class, by all accounts), but if things are as gruesome as they sound maybe she'd be better off not going at all.

It's pretty safe depending where she's going. Mindanao for example is different from Luzon or Davao. Family compounds are pretty common multi-generational sprawls in the exurbs, or could be a gated community depending if it's in a rural or metro area. If her family is big enough to have a compound to be frank shes in more danger from someone who hates them than the fact that she's a foreigner.

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012
My dad's leaving for the Philippines on Tuesday. Where's Baclaran on the scale of "pile of tin roofed targets for anti-drug task forces" and "so loving rich that if a single anti-drug task force person even thinks about making a raid here, they'll be dead within the day"? That's where my dad grew up and I'm sure he'll return there to see if/how it's changed in the last few years. My brother also resides in the Philippines, but he's probably in a better situation US military disability checks being what they are so I assume that neighborhood is relatively safer.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Something I wanted to talk about is an observation I've had with regards to many within the Philippines being completely unexposed or unused to political practices that are otherwise old-hat in the rest of the world, or even within the world, but not to people who aren't used to following politics. Similar to how Sanders supporters never realized how ugly and deliberately misleading the primary process (and especially caucus rules) could be, except even more naive than that.

The first example I'd like to cite is this ad that came out in the first week of May 2016, days before the elections:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnwrCPCc-gw

It's largely in Filipino, but the gist is that it's a quote from Duterte telling people he's going to kill someone, or he's yelling expletives at the Pope, or he's making that rape joke about the Australian missionary, followed by a child questioning whether or not that's proper behavior for a future President.

When my brother showed me that, I thought "oh, huh, it's like LBJ's Daisy ad: Philippine edition. They're really rolling out the big guns"

Turns out, people were utterly loving horrified at how beyond the pale this ad was. That politicians shouldn't "go negative", and that politicians shouldn't use children - people were contemplating filing suits against our Commission on Elections and the TV networks that aired this ad because it was "child abuse". Oops.

Another example is people unfamiliar with the idea of "attack dogs" for one side or the other, whether it's De Lima and Trillanes for the opposition, or Cayetano and recently Pacquiao for the administration.

I find it awkward because the electorate is highly polarized, but at the same time people are still maintaining that there should be some level of comity within the Senate, so when any Senator engages in behavior that wouldn't be out of line for, say, Harry Reid or Elizabeth Warren or Mark Kirk or Tom Cotton, they're both heroes for standing up for their principles to one group of people, while also being completely disrespectful and unprofessional to the other.

The third example I'd like to cite is this image:



Again, when I saw that, I thought "oh hey they're finally catching up to The Sun", or maybe NY Daily Post's "Weak End At Bernie's", but again, the general tenor of the feedback I was seeing, from both sides of the aisle, is that this was a really bad headline and it was unprofessional of the newspaper's editors to let it go to print.

I don't know, maybe this is just me having followed D&D for too long, or me being an ivory tower liberal looking snootily down on the unwashed masses, but I feel like there wasn't really a "political awakening" in the country so much as people hitching their bandwagons on a cult of personality, because the level of engagement with politics hasn't really risen beyond "Duterte good" and "Liberal Party bad"

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Xelkelvos posted:

My dad's leaving for the Philippines on Tuesday. Where's Baclaran on the scale of "pile of tin roofed targets for anti-drug task forces" and "so loving rich that if a single anti-drug task force person even thinks about making a raid here, they'll be dead within the day"? That's where my dad grew up and I'm sure he'll return there to see if/how it's changed in the last few years. My brother also resides in the Philippines, but he's probably in a better situation US military disability checks being what they are so I assume that neighborhood is relatively safer.

If "pile of tin roofed targets for anti-drug task forces" is a 1 on a scale of 1 to 10, Baclaran is about a 4. It's on the poorer side of Manila's neighborhoods and lies astride a large slum area that gets regularly raided by the police, but on the other hand it's also very heavily trafficked as it is a major transportation hub. Your dad is probably going to be most in danger from pickpockets and petty thieves than anything else. Tell him to watch all his belongings closely and stay out of alleyways.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Okay, from an economic and foreign policy perspective, this is why you don't want to Trump to be President:

Duterte: I'm about 'to cross the Rubicon' with the United States

quote:

President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday hinted that he's about to go past a point of no return in terms of the Philippines' relationship with the United States, revealing that he had sought help from Russia about the matter.

"I'm about to cross the Rubicon between me and the United States. At least for the next six years. I would need your help," he said, referring to his meeting earlier this month with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Mevdevev at the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.

The Philippines and the US are treaty allies, having signed a mutual defense treaty in 1951 and a visiting forces agreement in 1998. The US is also the Philippines' biggest foreign investor and the country's second biggest export market next to Japan.

But the relationship has been frayed under Duterte, who has bristled at criticism about the rising death toll of his administration's drug war from the US and other institutions such as the United Nations and the European Union. He has repeatedly expressed his desire to rid Mindanao of American troops supposedly to pursue peace talks, while declaring earlier this month that he wanted to stop joint patrols with the US in the South China Sea amid a maritime dispute with Beijing.

Duterte, meanwhile, has expressed openness to welcome more investments from China and Russia. He has also raised the possibility of buying arms from the two nations.

When asked to clarify his statement, Duterte noted that United States needed to get the Congress' approval before its President can declare war to help an ally.

"There is a RP-US Pact that was in the ‘50s. It says that an attack on the Philippines would be an attack of the United States," Duterte said.

"But in the United States Constitution, it says that before a President can declare war, with anybody in defense of an ally, he has to Congress for permission to go to war. That’s the problem. So if Congress will not give him that authority, what will happen to us?"

In the same press conference, Duterte said he didn't have any plans to junk alliances.

"I am not really going to break ties but we are opening alliances with China," he said.

Speaker of the House Pantaleon Alvarez files a bill preventing the Sandiganbayan, or the "People's Advocate Apellate Court" from suspending execs for graft

quote:

Just after the Sandiganbayan ordered the suspension for graft of two incumbent congressmen, Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez filed a bill seeking to prevent the anti-graft court from preventively suspending incumbent officials for offenses committed during their previously held positions.

Alvarez filed House Bill 3605 which seeks to amend Section 13 of Republic Act 3019 or the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act that allows the anti-graft court to preventively suspend incumbent officials charged with a valid information of graft or violation of the Revised Penal Code involving fraud of government funds.

Ombudsman prosecutors have been citing Section 13 in asking the court to suspend public officials charged with graft as a matter of course.

The prosecutors said officials charged with graft should be preventively suspended to prevent them from using his or her position to tamper with evidence or intimidate witnesses.


The Section 13 reads: “Any incumbent public officer against whom any criminal prosecution under a valid information under this Act or under Title Seven Book II of the Revised Penal Code or for any offense involving fraud upon government or public funds or property whether as a simple or as complex offense and in whatever stage of execution and mode of participation, is pending in court shall be suspended from office.”

The bill seeks to insert the phrase “provided, that in case such incumbent public officer is no longer connected with the office wherein the offense charged was committed, the preventive suspension order shall no longer be implemented.”

In the explanatory note, the authors said public officials in their new government posts would no longer be in a position to tamper with evidence or intimidate witnesses.

“As preventive suspension is imposed to prevent an accused from influencing potential witnesses or tampering with records, the change in circumstances of the public officer effectively removes this threat, making the provision in line with the spirit and intent of the law,” the authors said.

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

I'm morbidly curious to find out how US-Philippines relations would shake out under Duterte and Trump - would the blustering strongmen see eye to eye? Would they hate each other? Would Trump let Russia ally them instead? Would we wake up to nuclear fire the next morning?

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Fojar38
Sep 2, 2011


Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia


also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->
Mm yes an Alliance with Russia, a country with no significant ability to project power from its borders, with one lovely carrier that needs a tugboat escort, whose closest military installation is a supply depot in Vietnam, is definitely a viable alternative to the US when it comes to a military alliance for the Philippines

He's bluffing

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