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EngineerSean posted:They do not. As soon as you click the button, this is what it says: Yeah I figured that type of functionality would be a bit more sophisticated than what PI is willing to do.
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Sep 16, 2016 22:04
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The max number of traders is related to the quasi-legal nature of PI, any bigger and they might have their SEC permission slip revoked
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Sep 16, 2016 22:20
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Aristotle has been constantly fighting to have the cap raised ever since the site went online and has had it raised numerous times. I guess the SEC is finally telling him no.
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Sep 16, 2016 22:25
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 They added the market I requested!!! https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3691#data
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Sep 16, 2016 23:04
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ver naise 
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Sep 16, 2016 23:30
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The Jill Stein biweekly polling markets have been great. For whatever reason they aren't infested with daytrader experts, so I can play the role of big fish with such arcane knowledge as "these polls are replaced weekly" and "those 15 day old polls won't stick around in the average for another two weeks." Gary Johnson biweekly markets are similar, with the bonus of Libertarian spenders in abundance. For whatever reason though they haven't been as mispriced in the last couple weeks. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 01:17 on Sep 19, 2016 |
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Sep 19, 2016 01:15
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Vox Nihili posted:The Jill Stein biweekly polling markets have been great. For whatever reason they aren't infested with daytrader experts, so I can play the role of big fish with such arcane knowledge as "these polls are replaced weekly" and "those 15 day old polls won't stick around in the average for another two weeks." Seconded. I'm used to getting what I think are timely new poll alerts only to be dunked on in the other polling markets, but these 3rd party contests have been relative ghost towns. Gary market would be more fun if they kept the over/under at 8%. 9% seems like a fading dream and will only get worse beyond the first debate.
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Sep 19, 2016 02:35
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Vox, you still in Stein fundraising B5 no? I woulda loved to get out in the 90s a few days ago and have been done with it, but I wasn't around for that and then someone crushed it back down to the 70s. Hopefully that's an idiot and not an insider, as we discussed before... Also, Trump false statements is hilarious: all five brackets almost equally priced around 20-25. I'm in 4 and 5 (the 3rd and 4th brackets) and can hopefully get out in some swings, that market is pure luck with what they'll include at the end.
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Sep 19, 2016 11:01
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Nosre posted:Also, Trump false statements is hilarious: all five brackets almost equally priced around 20-25. I'm in 4 and 5 (the 3rd and 4th brackets) and can hopefully get out in some swings, that market is pure luck with what they'll include at the end. That backdated 7th POF on the final day of the market in August was so hilariously brutal. Never hold a position at the buzzer because you know someone from Politifact made a nice mid-year bonus off that one.
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Sep 19, 2016 14:26
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Don't forget, if you want to get in / out, fundraising markets end tonight.
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Sep 19, 2016 14:32
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C7ty1 posted:Don't forget, if you want to get in / out, fundraising markets end tonight. Yea, and a few hours after I posted there's heavy movement buying up B3/B5 nos and B4 yes. Hopefully that's the arrival of the insiders and this thing is done.
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Sep 19, 2016 15:29
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Nosre posted:Vox, you still in Stein fundraising B5 no? I woulda loved to get out in the 90s a few days ago and have been done with it, but I wasn't around for that and then someone crushed it back down to the 70s. Hopefully that's an idiot and not an insider, as we discussed before... I sold all my Stein fundraising shares awhile back. B5 no is probably still fine, these markets tend to move a lot due to low volume.
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Sep 19, 2016 16:51
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lol HOU$E is back. I was worried he'd totally lost his marbles or something
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Sep 20, 2016 19:50
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Hillary's August fundraising total is out: $59.5m. Huge win for me, but was only half a mil away from a crippling setback!
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Sep 21, 2016 01:56
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Vox Nihili posted:Hillary's August fundraising total is out: $59.5m. Huge win for me, but was only half a mil away from a crippling setback! Can you link the market? I wanna read the comments
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Sep 21, 2016 02:19
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https://www.predictit.org/Market/2411/What-will-Clintons-monthly-fundraising-be-for-August Only a few veterans hanging around at the moment. There were more "interesting folks" in the Trump market: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2412/What-will-Trumps-monthly-fundraising-be-for-August
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Sep 21, 2016 02:38
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https://www.predictit.org/Market/2422/What-will-the-RNC%27s-monthly-fundraising-be-for-August There's something funny about this market. Do you know what it is? Don't read the comments. I'll wait. Figured it out? It resolved B5. At 1c YES.
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Sep 21, 2016 03:17
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C7ty1 posted:https://www.predictit.org/Market/2422/What-will-the-RNC%27s-monthly-fundraising-be-for-August PI really screwed themselves out of a bunch of money by changing the close date.
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Sep 21, 2016 03:34
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I know most people here were saying No was the smart bet on the debate viewers market, but http://uproxx.com/tv/ratings-for-the-first-debate-between-clinton-and-trump-are-projected-to-bust-through-the-roof/ is projecting 100 million and that seems nuts to me, especially since it's competing with football. Still, they'd have to be off by 20 million viewers for the market not to resolve Yes. Are these guys just totally full of poo poo? Because Yes is still reasonably cheap.
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Sep 21, 2016 04:05
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Trump total receipts at $41,751,717.62. Won a couple hundred, but a couple million less and I would have had a huge payout. Oh well!
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Sep 21, 2016 05:11
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Nosre posted:Vox, you still in Stein fundraising B5 no? I woulda loved to get out in the 90s a few days ago and have been done with it, but I wasn't around for that and then someone crushed it back down to the 70s. Hopefully that's an idiot and not an insider, as we discussed before... RIP my dude. (She only raised $880k and her campaign is now effectively broke w/ only $150k in the bank.)
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Sep 21, 2016 20:12
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Alright folks, what's your PI Debate card look like?code:PNEUMONIA: Yes BASKET OF DEPLORABLES: No BENGHAZI: Yes BIRTHER: No (won't be asked in way to meet rules) ALT-RIGHT: No BLIND TRUST: No CROOKED HILLARY (Trump says): Yes (in closing remarks, probably) MOST WATCHED DEBATE: No (but it'll probably be close)
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Sep 21, 2016 22:40
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I think “Benghazi” is the most mis‐priced. I’m in on NO there. Note that for the “birther” market, only “birther”, “birthers”, or “birtherism” count. “Birth certificate” does not, “born in this country” does not, &c. I have some NO there. I wish I’d gotten in on “pneumonia” early. NO was cheap for a while. It’s probably still +EV, but not enough for my liking.
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Sep 21, 2016 23:27
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I'm still in Most Watched Debate NO. I'm only pissed because I got in at 42 weeks ago when I could have gotten in at 35 or possibly even lower today. All of my money is tied up at the moment so I can't get into any other debate markets.
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Sep 21, 2016 23:55
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C7ty1 posted:Alright folks, what's your PI Debate card look like? My positions: PNEUMONIA: N/A BASKET OF DEPLORABLES: No BENGHAZI: N/A BIRTHER: N/A ALT-RIGHT: Lol BLIND TRUST: N/A CROOKED HILLARY (Trump says): Had No, sold at 60c MOST WATCHED DEBATE: No Also, maxed Yes on this: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3683/Will-there-be-a-sanctioned-presidential-debate-on-September-26
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Sep 22, 2016 01:06
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Vox Nihili posted:RIP my dude. Yea... it's OK, I made more than that loss in Trump fundraising last month on your tip  Anywho, this market is pretty funny/interesting: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2463/How-many-women-will-be-in-US-cabinet-positions-on-March-31%2c-2017 If we assume a Hillary win, I'd say it's a reasonable expectation for her to shoot for 50% women as a statement. If shares can be picked up <10, a bell curve spread covering 6/7/8/9/10 might be quite nice. Problem is filling those orders, and that it's a long market to hold.
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Sep 22, 2016 14:58
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I expect to see the 0 bracket fluctuating perfectly with Trump YES
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Sep 22, 2016 15:06
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theflyingexecutive posted:I expect to see the 0 bracket fluctuating perfectly with Trump YES But Trump loves women. He hires women, he puts them in leadership positions. Granted they will need to have nice racks and be a "10" but if anyone can be trusted to find these qualified women it will be Trump. Or he can just nominate Ivanka to something.
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Sep 22, 2016 16:44
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PNEUMONIA: N/A BASKET OF DEPLORABLES: No BENGHAZI: No BIRTHER: N/A ALT-RIGHT: N/A BLIND TRUST: N/A CROOKED HILLARY (Trump says): Not touching "Trump says" with a 10000 foot pole. MOST WATCHED DEBATE: No - I think 100 million will watch, but many/most of them will be online/streaming - people are comparing this to Obama/Romney and I think that's mis-reading how much viewing habits have changed in 4 years.
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Sep 23, 2016 17:13
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theflyingexecutive posted:I expect to see the 0 bracket fluctuating perfectly with Trump YES He'd put Omarosa in some sort of a position to check off black and woman boxes at the same time, I'm sure of it.
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Sep 23, 2016 17:47
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The "Will Ted Cruz endorse Trump" contract is going nuts. I made a few bucks on the upswing, but I'm buying a bunch of "no" for the downswing when they inevitably rule that Cruz's weaselly statement was not an endorsement.
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Sep 23, 2016 20:57
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anotherone posted:The "Will Ted Cruz endorse Trump" contract is going nuts. I made a few bucks on the upswing, but I'm buying a bunch of "no" for the downswing when they inevitably rule that Cruz's weaselly statement was not an endorsement. Our country is in crisis. Hillary Clinton is manifestly unfit to be president, and her policies would harm millions of Americans. And Donald Trump is the only thing standing in her way. A year ago, I pledged to endorse the Republican nominee, and I am honoring that commitment. And if you don’t want to see a Hillary Clinton presidency, I encourage you to vote for him. seems p. clear!
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Sep 23, 2016 21:09
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anotherone posted:The "Will Ted Cruz endorse Trump" contract is going nuts. I made a few bucks on the upswing, but I'm buying a bunch of "no" for the downswing when they inevitably rule that Cruz's weaselly statement was not an endorsement. Sell. There’s no “takesies‐backsies” clause in this one like there was in the Sanders market.
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Sep 23, 2016 21:11
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It resolved YES, as promised. Made $50 by nearly maxing YES @ 94˘.
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Sep 23, 2016 22:14
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Platystemon posted:It resolved YES, as promised. ah drat, oh well still made money
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Sep 23, 2016 22:33
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I lost about $4.00 on the lottery ticket idea that they would judge it as weasel words and not close the market right away. Oh well. I'm eyeing the Florida Trump vs Clinton polling. I'm betting that polls will swing Clinton's way as the tiny percentage of people who were on the fence get completely disgusted with the Trump foundation inside dealing and that she won't collapse in a coughing fit at the debate and people realize she isn't near death. That said just about everything is tied up in Clinton not dropping out in September, I refuse to sell for less than 97 cents, and it is rising in value grudgingly slow....Going to build a position in B2
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Sep 24, 2016 00:45
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Still shares of "there's gonna be a debate, guys" available for 95c. There's gonna be a debate, guys. I'm kinda getting into the viewership bracket market too: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3683/Will-there-be-a-sanctioned-presidential-debate-on-September-26#data 100m isn't gonna happen. Book it.
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Sep 24, 2016 08:00
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Its still possible to buy no on congress approving money to fight Zika at about 25 cents a share. I'm tempted to use money on an emergency debit card for a quick buck.
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Sep 24, 2016 12:18
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If you're patient you can hedge NO on record debate viewership (80.6mm) with YES 80-89.9mm for 50-55c. The former will randomly drop into the low 30s, usually at night. There might be one more surge with all the hype articles being published.
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Sep 24, 2016 19:37
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RandomPauI posted:Its still possible to buy no on congress approving money to fight Zika at about 25 cents a share. I'm tempted to use money on an emergency debit card for a quick buck. ffs DO NOT DEPOSIT ANY MONEY YOU ARENT WILLING TO WATCH VANISH BEFORE YOUR EYES
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Sep 24, 2016 19:54
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