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iospace posted:Why was Ron Paul popular in the first place anyway? From a distance, in a bad light, with many distractions, he appeared to be an attractive third-way (in both senses of the word) alternative to bog-standard GOP vs. Democrat candidates. VAGENDA OF MANOCIDE posted:r[love]ution r  ution.
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Sep 24, 2016 17:49
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Captain_Maclaine posted:From a distance, in a bad light, with many distractions, he appeared to be an attractive third-way (in both senses of the word) alternative to bog-standard GOP vs. Democrat candidates. [over]lution
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Sep 24, 2016 17:51
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gently caress it, perma me up (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 24, 2016 17:57
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Necc0 posted:How many permas has the trump thread registered? LOL take a guess
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Sep 24, 2016 21:33
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Whole lot of idiots.
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Sep 24, 2016 23:59
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Finally took the time to wade through the Trump toxx thread. These people actually think they are winning? Is this gonna be 2012 all over again?
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Sep 25, 2016 00:16
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Pakled posted:Isn't that happening in 2008 what largely turned SA from a typical internet libertarian site into the lefty site it is today? LF for life.
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Sep 25, 2016 01:44
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lozzle posted:Finally took the time to wade through the Trump toxx thread.  This represents states where 538 has Trump favored, plus Colorado, where some recent polls have him ahead, though he does trail in the aggregate there. In an election held today, I would not discount the above map as something that could happen, though I don't think it would be a likely outcome. However, the election isn't being held today. Trump has time to win over Colorado, and if he does that, plus plays successful defense in every other swing state, he could squeak out a narrow win. He also has a few other scenarios which are within the realm of the possible, if only just barely, such as this:  Or this:  Or this:  Or this:  Those last four are all obviously big long-shots, but I would hesitate to say impossible. Republicans have won both Colorado and Virginia not too long ago, and Trump's appeal with white working class voters means that Pennsylvania isn't entirely a pipe dream. Polls show Trump close in the 2nd district of Maine, and he was not too long ago favored to win New Hampshire. I don't think any of those scenarios would happen today, but we're more than a month from the election and I see possible, if very unlikely paths that could generate the maps above. Trump's doing as good now as he's done since he was in the midst of his convention and while I don't think anyone with any objectivity would call him the favorite at this point, he's managed to pull within striking distance. I don't think he'll be able to hold it, but if I were a Trump supporter, I'd be pretty drat excited right now.
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Sep 25, 2016 02:00
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Toxxing for Clinton even though I'm voting third party unless hell freezes over and Illinois becomes a swing state.Instant Sunrise posted:it was 2007 and he was in favor of legalizing pot and ending the iraq war It was even better than that. He opposed sending the US military to the middle east, but he supported issuing Letters of Marque and Reprisal to PMCs so they could go and hunt down Bin Laden where ever he was hiding because 9/11 was "air piracy".  But of course that's complicated and insane so people just boiled it down to "He's anti-interventionist".(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 25, 2016 03:46
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Azathoth posted:He's got a narrow but plausible path to 270 electoral votes right now. This would be the by far the most plausible: Cheeto isn't taking CO, PA, or VA.
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Sep 25, 2016 04:09
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DemeaninDemon posted:Cheeto isn't taking CO, PA, or VA. Or ME. The only one of these maps that is even remotely possible is the one where he squeaks by with 270 EV by flipping NH. lozzle has issued a correction as of 04:23 on Sep 25, 2016 |
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Sep 25, 2016 04:20
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gently caress it, this is a coward's bet this late in the campaign but I'm taking it anyway. The only way Hillary is going to lose this is if some 9/11 style catastrophe happens on the eve of the election, and if that's the case then I really should be doing something more productive than posting on a dead forum anyway.  (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 25, 2016 04:23
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Asimo posted:gently caress it, this is a coward's bet this late in the campaign but I'm taking it anyway. The only way Hillary is going to lose this is if some 9/11 style catastrophe happens on the eve of the election, and if that's the case then I really should be doing something more productive than posting on a dead forum anyway. Hey man don't feel bad I toxxed for Obama in late October when 538 was giving Romney like a 10% chance to win. Nothing else matters as long as you're on the winning team. 
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Sep 25, 2016 04:38
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DemeaninDemon posted:Cheeto isn't taking CO, PA, or VA. lozzle posted:Or ME. The only one of these maps that is even remotely possible is the one where he squeaks by with 270 EV by flipping NH. Colorado: I'll stand by my scenario of Colorado being in play for Trump and that he's got a reasonable chance of winning, though Hillary is still the clear favorite right now. I don't know why folks think Hillary has Colorado on lockdown, her withdrawing of ad dollars aside. Trump's led in a few of the polls within the state, so it's not like Pennsylvania where he's never led in anything and so I just don't think it's a given that Hillary wins there. The polling is all over the place, and while I like that the average has Hillary up, I think the true state of the race there is murkier than folks want to admit. While I admire the certainty that he's not gonna win in Colorado, it went to George W. Bush twice, and Bob Dole before that. They've got one Republican senator currently, and it's got a history of electing Republicans in statewide elections. It wouldn't surprise me to see Gary Johnson have one of his best states here by pulling away some of the soft Democrat votes that have moved to the party recently. It's also one of the few states where Trump is actually trying to do a ground game. I still think Hilary has strong odds of carrying the state, way better odds than Trump, but I don't see it as being a gimme like Pennsylvania. Speaking of... Pennsylvania: This one's a huge long-shot and if I'm gonna play the percentages game, this is something stupidly low like 1-2%. However, that 1-2% chance isn't zero. Trump's path to victory here would be to, as expected, run up the blue-collar white vote and somehow manage to keep losses down in the suburbs and squeak out a 47.5% Trump to 47% Hillary victory. Virginia: gently caress it, I shouldn't have put that one up with Kaine on the ticket. Maybe Hillary gets caught on tape saying that she plans to sell Virginia back to the British or something. Consider this one withdrawn. Maine: Maine flipping wouldn't be likely to happen without New Hampshire flipping as well, and if the race moves towards Trump by the several points it would need to for him to win in New Hampshire, Trump could run up the vote in the 2nd district, along with a stronger than expected showing across the state for Gary Johnson and eek out a victory with 42.5% Trump, 42% Hillary, 15% Johnson. That said, just like Pennsylvania, this is a very low percentage as well. The point is, Trump's really drat close to 270 already and any one of these scenarios could put him over the top. I still think Hillary's gonna win, and I think she's gonna do it with somewhere north of 300 electoral votes, which means that although I'm saying the above scenarios are possible, I do not think any of them are actually going to happen. The point I'm making is that the state of the race today is not the state of the race on election day, and there's things that Trump could do (or luck into) that could make these scenarios happen.
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Sep 25, 2016 05:51
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You're full of azrying poo poo.
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Sep 25, 2016 06:20
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lozzle posted:Nothing else matters as long as you're on the winning team. 
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Sep 25, 2016 06:32
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The iron abuela will give me safe refuge once I flee the Glorious People's Republic of the Philippines (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 25, 2016 15:02
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DemeaninDemon posted:You're full of azrying poo poo.
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Sep 25, 2016 15:54
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lozzle posted:Finally took the time to wade through the Trump toxx thread. Yes, yes it is. Jonked posted:When your winning game plan is "Flipping Pennsylvania red AND <X>" you don't have a winning game plan. No, it's not impossible that Trump becomes president - he's the nominee of a major party, he's one of the two most likely people to be elected president. But Trump is already in the hole, doesn't seem to be a good candidate, and isn't doing the sort of things he need to do to fix either of those problems. And that's before we even get into his campaign being a cardboard cutout with a picture of a real on clumsily painted on it, next to a "Trump Organization" bucket with the name covered in duck tape and relabeled "DONATE."
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Sep 25, 2016 16:20
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oh what the hell put my money where my mouth is I guess for a ban and a month probie if HRC does not become the president-elect(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 25, 2016 16:38
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lozzle posted:Finally took the time to wade through the Trump toxx thread. I hope someone's ready with a White People Mourning Trump collection, the Romney one was incredible
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Sep 25, 2016 16:46
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Yes, yes it is. The best part is it's still a bunch of the same people. I took a poke through the Romney toxx thread and boy that's a lot of maga towers.
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Sep 25, 2016 16:56
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VAGENDA OF MANOCIDE posted:The best part is it's still a bunch of the same people. I took a poke through the Romney toxx thread and boy that's a lot of maga towers. I know!
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Sep 25, 2016 16:58
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imho, anybody who toxxed for romney AND trump should get a perma for being 0-2
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Sep 25, 2016 17:03
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Instant Sunrise posted:imho, anybody who toxxed for romney AND trump should get a perma for being 0-2 but we want them back in 2020 so we can laugh at them again
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Sep 25, 2016 17:35
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:but we want them back in 2020 so we can laugh at them again And Lowtax wants them for their quadrennial 
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Sep 25, 2016 17:39
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You need to screw up bad to lose as an incumbent. The economy may hit a few speedbumps but Hillary's gonna win 2020 unless she physically cannot run or she doubles and triples down on catastrophic mistakes. me for Hillary 2020 Hope we can get Diamond Joe as vp though.
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Sep 25, 2016 18:44
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VAGENDA OF MANOCIDE posted:The best part is it's still a bunch of the same people. I took a poke through the Romney toxx thread and boy that's a lot of maga towers. got a link to it bud?
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Sep 25, 2016 19:25
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DemeaninDemon posted:You're full of azrying poo poo. I'm sorry, is someone not allowed to post scenarios that have at least some plausibility? I know that you're completely certain Clinton will win, but they were talking about what could potentially happen. Yes, arzying is annoying, but so is your "SHUT UP" every time. iospace has issued a correction as of 19:35 on Sep 25, 2016 |
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Sep 25, 2016 19:29
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Is it really arzying to suggest possible-but-not-likely scenarios as a what-if? I didn't realise that arzying had become such a catch-all term for 'having a political prediction that doesn't make me feel good.'
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Sep 25, 2016 19:31
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what arzying is: "HILLARY'S GONNA LOSE WE'RE ALL DOOMED" what arzying is not: a reasonable hypothesis that posits Hillary would lose if certain conditions occur
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Sep 25, 2016 19:32
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Swedgin posted:what arzying is: "HILLARY'S GONNA LOSE WE'RE ALL DOOMED" sounds like someone's arzying to high-hell and back, my arzy
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Sep 25, 2016 19:32
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Tesseraction posted:Is it really arzying to suggest possible-but-not-likely scenarios as a what-if? I didn't realise that arzying had become such a catch-all term for 'having a political prediction that doesn't make me feel good.' No, and even more so when the post in question finishes with "I think Clinton is going to win". There's what CS was doing for a while, and then there's outlining "hey, here's why I think this state could go to Trump based on X", which is exactly what Azathoth was doing.
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Sep 25, 2016 19:33
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Late to the game! Happy to make my first ever for Mi Abuela, 45th President of the United States.A Fancy 400 lbs posted:Toxxing for Clinton even though I'm voting third party unless hell freezes over and Illinois becomes a swing state. Vote for Clinton anyway. Popular vote percentage matters this election because America needs as strong of a rebuking of right wing authoritarianism as possible. I live in Oregon (Trump would have to be like +7 nationally to even make it a swing state) and I'm still pulling the lever for Hillary because I want her to run up the scoreboard as hard as possible. (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 25, 2016 20:41
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Yeah I'm in the wrong here sorry
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Sep 25, 2016 21:40
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I would like a Hillary gang tag. Idk how to show my devotion other than say I signed up to phone bank later this week but I'm open to funny and not too dangerous (or expensive) suggestions
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Sep 25, 2016 21:55
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I wish there was a better gang-tag than the Lyin Crooked one.
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Sep 26, 2016 01:20
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Tesseraction posted:I wish there was a better gang-tag than the Lyin Crooked one. I like the lying crooked one if only because it was made in earnest by somebody in the Trump thread
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Sep 26, 2016 01:21
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Wanamingo posted:I like the lying crooked one if only because it was made in earnest by somebody in the Trump thread Yeah but I want a decent unironic support tag not an ironic Trumpian one. Not to say I dislike the current but I wouldn't want it for me.
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Sep 26, 2016 01:29
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Tesseraction posted:I wish there was a better gang-tag than the Lyin Crooked one. "Eh it's ok" goes pretty well with Hillary being the nominee, no?
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Sep 26, 2016 02:32
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