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Wanamingo posted:I like the lying crooked one if only because it was made in earnest by somebody in the Trump thread nah it was made as a joke by one of your fellow toxxers, from the original here
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 02:42 |
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# ? May 29, 2024 01:26 |
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A Fancy 400 lbs posted:Toxxing for Clinton even though I'm voting third party unless hell freezes over and Illinois becomes a swing state. your vote is private and it's "cool" if you want to express some sort of political opinion with it. Don't advertise that you're voting third party if you really want Hillary to win though. It doesn't send a good message to people that you aren't excited to vote for Hillary and amplifying that message could negatively affect turnout and enthusiasm
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 03:37 |
DemeaninDemon posted:Yeah I'm in the wrong here sorry The point I was making is made pretty well by Nate Silver today actually, the whole thing's long (and worth going through), so read it [url="https://"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-heading-into-the-first-debate/"]here[/url], but I want to quote this part: quote:To put it another way, a narrow Trump win would not count as a major polling foul-up if the election were held today: It would be within a reasonable range of disagreement among pollsters. A clear Trump win — or for that matter, a Clinton landslide — would be more of a problem for the polls. First, Hillary has a way, way better ground game than Trump. Obviously, I can't point to any hard numbers proving this, but I think she's gonna have a bigger GOTV edge than any candidate since GOTV became a thing. There's a whole lot of unpersuaded voters, and I think that we'll see them break towards Hillary after the debates. Second, the debates haven't happened yet, and we're currently at the tail end of a long, bad news cycle for Clinton, which she can turn around with a good debate performance. I think she'll win the debates overall, though I'm less bullish about her chances in the first one. I think networks will call it a tie, but Clinton will get a modest polling bump from it. I think she'll be declared a narrow winner in debate two, and see another polling bump, and then she'll blow Trump out in debate three because he'll start throwing haymakers to try to turn it around and he'll miss badly. Third, Hillary is losing slightly more to Johnson and Stein than Trump is losing to them. If the race stays close, I expect that a lot of those low-enthusiasm voters will start to come back. On the flip side of this, the Republicans going third party because of Trump seem way less likely to come back. Another thing I can't prove with hard numbers, though I believe it to be true. Fourth, there's way more undecided voters at this point than in any election in recent memory. I'm thinking that I'd have to go back to 2000 or one of Bubba's wins to find that. I don't care enough to do a deep dive, so if someone wants to prove me wrong on this, go for it. However, the number of undecideds gives Hillary room to grow, and as I said in the first point, she's got a superior ground game. Winning over undecided voters is a grind, and it's one that she's well set up to do. Fifth and finally, she's got a way better fundraising apparatus than Trump. Although Trump is picking it up lately, it wouldn't surprise me to see Hillary outspend Trump 2:1 when all is said and done. That isn't enough to turn it from a tie to a blowout, but if we're playing a game of feet and inches, she's got an edge. TL;DR: Hillary's not in a great spot now, but she's in an okay one, and if I were her, I wouldn't want to trade places with Trump right now. Also, I think Hillary is going to way, way, way outperform her polling, owing to her superior campaign organization and infrastructure. It happened to Obama in 2012 and I think it'll be even more pronounced this year.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 03:45 |
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theflyingexecutive posted:your vote is private and it's "cool" if you want to express some sort of political opinion with it. Don't advertise that you're voting third party if you really want Hillary to win though. It doesn't send a good message to people that you aren't excited to vote for Hillary and amplifying that message could negatively affect turnout and enthusiasm I'm not delusional about the chances of a third party actually effecting anything, doubly so for one that isn't the Greens or Libertarians, so it's just a personal thing. I'm pushing hard for Hillary and actively engaging in evangelism for her with left-wing/progressive friends, especially ones who do live in swing states, just like I did for Obama even though I didn't vote for him either. I'm totally pushing the third party option with Republicans I know and encouraging them to vote Johnson though. Hypocritical? Yep. The most moral choice considering what a worldwide disaster Trump would be? Also yep.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 04:09 |
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Yeah but it's a lot harder to convince someone to vote for Hillary when you yourself are not
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 04:19 |
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I don't tell everyone I'm voting third party IRL, and my friends who know that I do also aren't really the ones who need convincing.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 04:36 |
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tox me up baby if hillary loses, my sa account will be the least of my worries. if hillary wins, i'm going to whip out the mexican flag my abuelita gave me, march down to the highway by my apartment and wave that summbitch till a trump supporter drives into me.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 05:31 |
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Azathoth posted:Reading it over again, I can see how you'd get that impression. Not my intent, and I should have framed it better. I'm trying to thread a needle, both on and off the forums, about saying that Hillary is still being favored but it not being a slam-dunk like it was looking a month or so ago. It wasn't more than a month ago that she was looking to put Arizona and Georgia in play. I still think it's possible, but it'd only be because of an epic Trump meltdown, and not something that's entirely in her control. There ain't much to disagree with here at all. I'd start getting worried if PA and NH started drifting away towards Trump land. Like him leading by a few points across the board there. Then the worrying would begin. It's possible for him to squeak by without it but it's pretty unlikely since him losing there doesn't bode well for performance elsewhere.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 05:32 |
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For the love of god, just perma-ban me if HRC doesn't win. There won't be internet on the as of yet uninhabited island I will move to. (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 06:44 |
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just a PSA for you all The First Presidential Debate thread is up. Read the OP for some details, a drinking game and a bingo game included. Be sure to check early for the bingo game rules if you want to apply to it, there's a submission time limit before 9pm EST. It'll be open around 10-11am EST or the afternoon, depending if the IKs/Mods are awake/around~ Have fun
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 06:50 |
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ludnix posted:For the love of god, just perma-ban me if HRC doesn't win. There won't be internet on the as of yet uninhabited island I will move to. *adds tally mark to whiteboard*
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 08:30 |
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I was invited to my local Democratic office debate watch party. I'm afraid all the nice little old ladies who are always there will judge me when I call Trump a lying motherfucker and drink.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 08:32 |
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Lightning Knight posted:I was invited to my local Democratic office debate watch party. Little old ladies who would go to a Democratic Party debate watch party are probably drunker and more foul mouthed than you. They lived through Nixon.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 13:24 |
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neonnoodle posted:Little old ladies who would go to a Democratic Party debate watch party are probably drunker and more foul mouthed than you. They lived through Nixon. yea there is no way a room full of little old politically active ladies won't also call someone a motherfucker.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:15 |
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I'm watching the debate with the LPC caucus tonight. So, of course, it's open bar. Guessing alot of motherfuckers will be said
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:18 |
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bunnyofdoom posted:I'm watching the debate with the LPC caucus tonight. So, of course, it's open bar. Guessing alot of motherfuckers will be said So much drama in the LPC
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:25 |
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Bip Roberts posted:So much drama in the LPC What do you think LPC stands for?
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:26 |
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bunnyofdoom posted:What do you think LPC stands for? It's kinda hard being bunny-o-double-d Bip Roberts has issued a correction as of 16:33 on Sep 26, 2016 |
# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:30 |
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Did I toxx already? If not
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:40 |
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bunnyofdoom posted:What do you think LPC stands for? Lithuania-Poland Commonwealth
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 17:00 |
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What I'm saying is that the current Republican-controlled Congress is more dysfunctional than the Sejm
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 17:02 |
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Liberal Party of Canada. AKA the people running poo poo up here in the north, and who made Baloogan an alcoholic.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 17:04 |
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i hope after the election somebody compiles a list of companies and executives that donated to trump's campaign so we know who to avoid giving our money to
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 18:44 |
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Bip Roberts posted:So much drama in the LPC Bip Roberts posted:It's kinda hard being bunny-o-double-d
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 18:54 |
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....I have no idea what that reference is
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 19:36 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqgz-G5OqXM&t=80s Honestly though, just watch the whole thing. An under-appreciated master.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 22:25 |
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Getting my Toxx in before the debate. I'm worried the media will declare Trump the winner of the debate for "exceeding expectations" as long he doesn't walk out in the middle of it. But no matter, will prevail in the end. (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 22:32 |
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Respect for all toxxing in the darkness of shook nate's nowcast
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 22:37 |
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Peztopiary posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqgz-G5OqXM&t=80s Honestly though, just watch the whole thing. An under-appreciated master. speaking of gin and juice... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok2g6M4wTeg
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 22:56 |
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A Winner is Jew posted:speaking of gin and juice... This was in the video, but I feel compelled to post it on its own. Cersei Lannister af
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:16 |
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what booze should i buy for the debate? because there's no way i'm watching this poo poo sober.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:26 |
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Instant Sunrise posted:what booze should i buy for the debate? because there's no way i'm watching this poo poo sober. I plan on making Bailey's milkshakes, personally.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:37 |
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theflyingexecutive posted:Respect for all toxxing in the darkness of shook nate's nowcast No fear
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:41 |
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Instant Sunrise posted:what booze should i buy for the debate? because there's no way i'm watching this poo poo sober. Something bottom-shelf, preferably in a clear plastic jug with a plain white label. Bonus points if the label contains serious spelling errors.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:43 |
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Lightning Knight posted:I plan on making Bailey's milkshakes, personally. I'm going full Reince, Bailey's on my cornflakes.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:44 |
Instant Sunrise posted:what booze should i buy for the debate? because there's no way i'm watching this poo poo sober. Whiskey sours, man.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:47 |
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MC Nietzche posted:I'm going full Reince, Bailey's on my cornflakes. Mm, that actually sounds good.
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# ? Sep 26, 2016 23:58 |
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Koalas March posted:Whiskey sours, man. Shelter for the storm (of lies).
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# ? Sep 27, 2016 00:05 |
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Koalas March posted:Whiskey sours, man. Best Kelly
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# ? Sep 27, 2016 01:50 |
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# ? May 29, 2024 01:26 |
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This debate can be summed up as this so far:
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# ? Sep 27, 2016 02:37 |