association of dead hillarymen

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logikv9: Mar 5, 2009; Ham Wrangler

Wanamingo posted:

I like the lying crooked one if only because it was made in earnest by somebody in the Trump thread

nah it was made as a joke by one of your fellow toxxers, from the original here

# ? Sep 26, 2016 02:42

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# ? May 28, 2024 22:38

theflyingexecutive: Apr 22, 2007

A Fancy 400 lbs posted:

Toxxing for Clinton even though I'm voting third party unless hell freezes over and Illinois becomes a swing state.

your vote is private and it's "cool" if you want to express some sort of political opinion with it. Don't advertise that you're voting third party if you really want Hillary to win though. It doesn't send a good message to people that you aren't excited to vote for Hillary and amplifying that message could negatively affect turnout and enthusiasm

# ? Sep 26, 2016 03:37

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

DemeaninDemon posted:

Yeah I'm in the wrong here sorry

Reading it over again, I can see how you'd get that impression. Not my intent, and I should have framed it better. I'm trying to thread a needle, both on and off the forums, about saying that Hillary is still being favored but it not being a slam-dunk like it was looking a month or so ago. It wasn't more than a month ago that she was looking to put Arizona and Georgia in play. I still think it's possible, but it'd only be because of an epic Trump meltdown, and not something that's entirely in her control.

The point I was making is made pretty well by Nate Silver today actually, the whole thing's long (and worth going through), so read it [url="https://"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-heading-into-the-first-debate/"]here[/url], but I want to quote this part:

quote:

To put it another way, a narrow Trump win would not count as a major polling foul-up if the election were held today: It would be within a reasonable range of disagreement among pollsters. A clear Trump win � or for that matter, a Clinton landslide � would be more of a problem for the polls.

I'm staying positive, however, because the vote isn't being held today, and even if it were, I still think that Hillary would win, and there's some things that I think polling and polling aggregators miss.

First, Hillary has a way, way better ground game than Trump. Obviously, I can't point to any hard numbers proving this, but I think she's gonna have a bigger GOTV edge than any candidate since GOTV became a thing. There's a whole lot of unpersuaded voters, and I think that we'll see them break towards Hillary after the debates.

Second, the debates haven't happened yet, and we're currently at the tail end of a long, bad news cycle for Clinton, which she can turn around with a good debate performance. I think she'll win the debates overall, though I'm less bullish about her chances in the first one. I think networks will call it a tie, but Clinton will get a modest polling bump from it. I think she'll be declared a narrow winner in debate two, and see another polling bump, and then she'll blow Trump out in debate three because he'll start throwing haymakers to try to turn it around and he'll miss badly.

Third, Hillary is losing slightly more to Johnson and Stein than Trump is losing to them. If the race stays close, I expect that a lot of those low-enthusiasm voters will start to come back. On the flip side of this, the Republicans going third party because of Trump seem way less likely to come back. Another thing I can't prove with hard numbers, though I believe it to be true.

Fourth, there's way more undecided voters at this point than in any election in recent memory. I'm thinking that I'd have to go back to 2000 or one of Bubba's wins to find that. I don't care enough to do a deep dive, so if someone wants to prove me wrong on this, go for it. However, the number of undecideds gives Hillary room to grow, and as I said in the first point, she's got a superior ground game. Winning over undecided voters is a grind, and it's one that she's well set up to do.

Fifth and finally, she's got a way better fundraising apparatus than Trump. Although Trump is picking it up lately, it wouldn't surprise me to see Hillary outspend Trump 2:1 when all is said and done. That isn't enough to turn it from a tie to a blowout, but if we're playing a game of feet and inches, she's got an edge.

TL;DR:
Hillary's not in a great spot now, but she's in an okay one, and if I were her, I wouldn't want to trade places with Trump right now. Also, I think Hillary is going to way, way, way outperform her polling, owing to her superior campaign organization and infrastructure. It happened to Obama in 2012 and I think it'll be even more pronounced this year.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 03:45

A Fancy 400 lbs: Jul 24, 2008

theflyingexecutive posted:

your vote is private and it's "cool" if you want to express some sort of political opinion with it. Don't advertise that you're voting third party if you really want Hillary to win though. It doesn't send a good message to people that you aren't excited to vote for Hillary and amplifying that message could negatively affect turnout and enthusiasm

I'm not delusional about the chances of a third party actually effecting anything, doubly so for one that isn't the Greens or Libertarians, so it's just a personal thing. I'm pushing hard for Hillary and actively engaging in evangelism for her with left-wing/progressive friends, especially ones who do live in swing states, just like I did for Obama even though I didn't vote for him either. I'm totally pushing the third party option with Republicans I know and encouraging them to vote Johnson though. Hypocritical? Yep. The most moral choice considering what a worldwide disaster Trump would be? Also yep.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 04:09

theflyingexecutive: Apr 22, 2007

Yeah but it's a lot harder to convince someone to vote for Hillary when you yourself are not

# ? Sep 26, 2016 04:19

A Fancy 400 lbs: Jul 24, 2008

I don't tell everyone I'm voting third party IRL, and my friends who know that I do also aren't really the ones who need convincing. :shrug:

# ? Sep 26, 2016 04:36

TheDeadFlagBlues: Sep 26, 2016; by FactsAreUseless

tox me up baby

if hillary loses, my sa account will be the least of my worries. if hillary wins, i'm going to whip out the mexican flag my abuelita gave me, march down to the highway by my apartment and wave that summbitch till a trump supporter drives into me.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 05:31

Islam is the Lite Rock FM: Jul 27, 2007; by exmarx

Azathoth posted:

Reading it over again, I can see how you'd get that impression. Not my intent, and I should have framed it better. I'm trying to thread a needle, both on and off the forums, about saying that Hillary is still being favored but it not being a slam-dunk like it was looking a month or so ago. It wasn't more than a month ago that she was looking to put Arizona and Georgia in play. I still think it's possible, but it'd only be because of an epic Trump meltdown, and not something that's entirely in her control.

The point I was making is made pretty well by Nate Silver today actually, the whole thing's long (and worth going through), so read it [url="https://"http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-heading-into-the-first-debate/"]here[/url], but I want to quote this part:

I'm staying positive, however, because the vote isn't being held today, and even if it were, I still think that Hillary would win, and there's some things that I think polling and polling aggregators miss.

First, Hillary has a way, way better ground game than Trump. Obviously, I can't point to any hard numbers proving this, but I think she's gonna have a bigger GOTV edge than any candidate since GOTV became a thing. There's a whole lot of unpersuaded voters, and I think that we'll see them break towards Hillary after the debates.

Second, the debates haven't happened yet, and we're currently at the tail end of a long, bad news cycle for Clinton, which she can turn around with a good debate performance. I think she'll win the debates overall, though I'm less bullish about her chances in the first one. I think networks will call it a tie, but Clinton will get a modest polling bump from it. I think she'll be declared a narrow winner in debate two, and see another polling bump, and then she'll blow Trump out in debate three because he'll start throwing haymakers to try to turn it around and he'll miss badly.

Third, Hillary is losing slightly more to Johnson and Stein than Trump is losing to them. If the race stays close, I expect that a lot of those low-enthusiasm voters will start to come back. On the flip side of this, the Republicans going third party because of Trump seem way less likely to come back. Another thing I can't prove with hard numbers, though I believe it to be true.

Fourth, there's way more undecided voters at this point than in any election in recent memory. I'm thinking that I'd have to go back to 2000 or one of Bubba's wins to find that. I don't care enough to do a deep dive, so if someone wants to prove me wrong on this, go for it. However, the number of undecideds gives Hillary room to grow, and as I said in the first point, she's got a superior ground game. Winning over undecided voters is a grind, and it's one that she's well set up to do.

Fifth and finally, she's got a way better fundraising apparatus than Trump. Although Trump is picking it up lately, it wouldn't surprise me to see Hillary outspend Trump 2:1 when all is said and done. That isn't enough to turn it from a tie to a blowout, but if we're playing a game of feet and inches, she's got an edge.

TL;DR:
Hillary's not in a great spot now, but she's in an okay one, and if I were her, I wouldn't want to trade places with Trump right now. Also, I think Hillary is going to way, way, way outperform her polling, owing to her superior campaign organization and infrastructure. It happened to Obama in 2012 and I think it'll be even more pronounced this year.

There ain't much to disagree with here at all.

I'd start getting worried if PA and NH started drifting away towards Trump land. Like him leading by a few points across the board there. Then the worrying would begin. It's possible for him to squeak by without it but it's pretty unlikely since him losing there doesn't bode well for performance elsewhere.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 05:32

ludnix: Jan 8, 2007; by exmarx

For the love of god, just perma-ban me if HRC doesn't win. There won't be internet on the as of yet uninhabited island I will move to.

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

# ? Sep 26, 2016 06:44

Lastgirl: Sep 7, 1997; Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

just a PSA for you all

The First Presidential Debate thread is up.

Read the OP for some details, a drinking game and a bingo game included. Be sure to check early for the bingo game rules if you want to apply to it, there's a submission time limit before 9pm EST.

It'll be open around 10-11am EST or the afternoon, depending if the IKs/Mods are awake/around~

Have fun :h:

# ? Sep 26, 2016 06:50

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

ludnix posted:

For the love of god, just perma-ban me if HRC doesn't win. There won't be internet on the as of yet uninhabited island I will move to.

*adds tally mark to whiteboard*

# ? Sep 26, 2016 08:30

Lightning Knight: Feb 24, 2012; Pray for Answer

I was invited to my local Democratic office debate watch party.

I'm afraid all the nice little old ladies who are always there will judge me when I call Trump a lying motherfucker and drink. :ohdear:

# ? Sep 26, 2016 08:32

neonnoodle: Mar 20, 2008; by exmarx

Lightning Knight posted:

I was invited to my local Democratic office debate watch party.

I'm afraid all the nice little old ladies who are always there will judge me when I call Trump a lying motherfucker and drink.

Little old ladies who would go to a Democratic Party debate watch party are probably drunker and more foul mouthed than you. They lived through Nixon.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 13:24

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

neonnoodle posted:

Little old ladies who would go to a Democratic Party debate watch party are probably drunker and more foul mouthed than you. They lived through Nixon.

yea there is no way a room full of little old politically active ladies won't also call someone a motherfucker.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:15

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; I've been here the whole time, and you're not my real Dad!

I'm watching the debate with the LPC caucus tonight. So, of course, it's open bar. Guessing alot of motherfuckers will be said

# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:18

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

bunnyofdoom posted:

I'm watching the debate with the LPC caucus tonight. So, of course, it's open bar. Guessing alot of motherfuckers will be said

So much drama in the LPC

# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:25

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; I've been here the whole time, and you're not my real Dad!

Bip Roberts posted:

So much drama in the LPC

What do you think LPC stands for?

# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:26

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

bunnyofdoom posted:

What do you think LPC stands for?

It's kinda hard being bunny-o-double-d

Bip Roberts has issued a correction as of 16:33 on Sep 26, 2016

# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:30

Wolfsheim: Dec 23, 2003; "Ah," Ratz had said, at last, "the artiste."

Did I toxx already? If not :shrug:

# ? Sep 26, 2016 16:40

Pakled: Aug 6, 2011; WE ARE SMART

bunnyofdoom posted:

What do you think LPC stands for?

Lithuania-Poland Commonwealth

# ? Sep 26, 2016 17:00

Pakled: Aug 6, 2011; WE ARE SMART

What I'm saying is that the current Republican-controlled Congress is more dysfunctional than the Sejm

# ? Sep 26, 2016 17:02

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; I've been here the whole time, and you're not my real Dad!

Liberal Party of Canada. AKA the people running poo poo up here in the north, and who made Baloogan an alcoholic.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 17:04

Instant Sunrise: Apr 12, 2007; The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.

i hope after the election somebody compiles a list of companies and executives that donated to trump's campaign so we know who to avoid giving our money to

# ? Sep 26, 2016 18:44

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Bip Roberts posted:

So much drama in the LPC

Bip Roberts posted:

It's kinda hard being bunny-o-double-d

# ? Sep 26, 2016 18:54

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; I've been here the whole time, and you're not my real Dad!

....I have no idea what that reference is

# ? Sep 26, 2016 19:36

Peztopiary: Mar 16, 2009; by exmarx

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqgz-G5OqXM&t=80s Honestly though, just watch the whole thing. An under-appreciated master.

# ? Sep 26, 2016 22:25

Arkest: Apr 2, 2007

Getting my Toxx in before the debate.

I'm worried the media will declare Trump the winner of the debate for "exceeding expectations" as long he doesn't walk out in the middle of it.
But no matter, :abuela: