|
The CNE will also limit the number of people who can vote per fingerprint scanning machine to 70 after 2:00 PM. That means that no matter how fast the process is, only 70 people will be allowed to vote between 2:00 PM and 4:00 PM on each of the three days. This also means that if there's 100 people in line at 2:00 PM, the thirty at the back get sent home. If you've ever voted (in Venezuela or anywhere else), it's not at all uncommon (in fact, it may be a requirement in some places?) that anyone still in line at closing time will still be allowed to vote, even if they enter the voting centre after closing. That is how previous elections have worked in Venezuela, anyway. This info (and the one Labradoodle cited) comes from a manual that the CNE has printed up for the October event. TalCual is a news website and it managed to get its hands on a copy. We're creeping ever so closely to "you're only allowed to vote if you vote for the right guy" territory.. Saladman posted:I'd like to believe that, but I can't. What cost? More voter disapproval? More... worthless protests? It's not like the army or anyone controlling the PDVSA or anyone with actual power or relevance is going to change their minds because of it, nor will it affect the ~20% of Venezuelans who seem to be diehard Chavistas despite the overwhelming burden of reality crushing them. They're just going to follow the CNE's idiocy and whatever excuse they come up with even in the essentially impossible chance of the people actually collecting 20% of validated signatures per state, and if the Venezuelan people don't manage the CNE's rules, then it will be "proof" for a large enough minority to keep up the charade. I agree with you that the recall won't happen this year, and that if it happens at all it will be only because the PSUV allows it because it's figured out some way to mitigate the damage. The point about increasing the cost of continuing the repression has to do, on the one hand, with unmasking the Venezuelan government for what it is. I think that Maduro is a dictator and that he heads an authoritarian government, but that's not a widespread "common knowledge" type of idea. At least not in the same way that everyone knows that Kim Jong Un is a dictator. Most of us reading this might be convinced of this fact, but I don't think the average citizen in the US/Canada/Europe is quite aware of that fact. On the other, whenever Maduro or his government does something dictatorial, they make new enemies and embolden the old ones. Just because there hasn't been the kind of overwhelming reaction against the government's abuses in the past doesn't mean that all future abuses will likewise go without a reaction. Every time the government engages in yet another abuse, it runs the risk of triggering "the straw that broke the camel's back".
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2016 01:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 06:05 |
|
|
Does anyone think the end of the FARC conflict in Colombia might have any affect on events in Venezuela? I'm surprised (or perhaps not surprised) that it has hardly been brought up at all in D&D, at least that I've noticed.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2016 03:42
|
|
|
Plastic_Gargoyle posted:Does anyone think the end of the FARC conflict in Colombia might have any affect on events in Venezuela? I'm surprised (or perhaps not surprised) that it has hardly been brought up at all in D&D, at least that I've noticed. Heh, I briefly considered making a short post about it in the Latin America thread, but when I saw some goon going "Chávez' only mistake was not enough purges" (paraphrased) I decided against it. As to your question, not really, no, Venezuela has enough of their own problems. The border regions will probably be somewhat safer, but that's about it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2016 07:43
|
|
|
beer_war posted:Heh, I briefly considered making a short post about it in the Latin America thread, but when I saw some goon going "Chávez' only mistake was not enough purges" (paraphrased) I decided against it. drat there are still tankies in the Lantin america thread. I mean i understand why(cia fun times hosed everyone) but my guess is its probaly some fat white europian/american who thinks the glorious revolution is just around the corner.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2016 20:52
|
|
|
OPEP just agreed to cut down production from 33.2m barrels a day to a whooping 32.5m a day. I don't think 700k barrels are going to make much of a difference, oil production is only going to be significantly reduced when PDVSA finally collapses sometime in the next couple years.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2016 22:39
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:drat there are still tankies in the Lantin america thread. I mean i understand why(cia fun times hosed everyone) but my guess is its probaly some fat white europian/american who thinks the glorious revolution is just around the corner. Nobody loves Chavismo more than bourgeois gringo college students.
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 03:10
|
|
|
Woolie Wool posted:Nobody loves Chavismo more than bourgeois gringo college students. And communism. Early communist movements were started by bourgeois college students. Then things got messed up a long the way. Che was basically a frat boy on a road trip before he started getting involved in politics
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 03:48
|
|
|
And just when you think it couldn't get any worse - "MLB moves Venezuela scouting showcase to Panama over security concerns posted:The situation in Venezuela has been deteriorating almost as fast as the country’s talent has risen in Major League Baseball.
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 18:57
|
|
|
My understanding is that MLB has been super cautious ever since a few years back one of their players was abducted while he was playing in Venezuela Winter leagues.
|
|
#
?
Sep 29, 2016 21:33
|
|
|
Venezuelan Tycoon Funds President’s Nephews’ Drug Defense http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelan-tycoon-funds-presidents-nephews-drug-defense-1475192218 jfc
|
|
#
?
Sep 30, 2016 21:29
|
|
|
El Hefe posted:OPEP just agreed to cut down production from 33.2m barrels a day to a whooping 32.5m a day. That 700k barrels per day is around what the production surplus is. It's not going to send prices skyrocketing, but it may keep things stabilized for a while. I think youre right though, the world is waiting for Venezuala to collapse for good times in the oil market.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 14:21
|
|
|
JohnGalt posted:That 700k barrels per day is around what the production surplus is. It's not going to send prices skyrocketing, but it may keep things stabilized for a while. I think youre right though, the world is waiting for Venezuala to collapse for good times in the oil market. Yea this is why looking at percents can be misleading for threshold models.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 15:27
|
|
|
El Hefe posted:Venezuelan Tycoon Funds President’s Nephews’ Drug Defense I like how Ruperti claims he's paying the legal fees out of a sense of patriotic duty, but then the article goes on to say: quote:He recently won a multimillion-dollar contract from the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA. China is Venezuela's biggest creditor and I'd venture to say that China has played the key role in keeping Venezuela afloat this far. I guess Venezuela has no option now but to look for financing elsewhere, but that's going to be a really, really tough sell. EDIT: Also, here's an article from 2012 titled "Government Sets 2016 as Goal for Single-Digit Inflation". The article is a really good example of how the government suffers from a kind of magical thinking where they seem to believe that simply saying the right combination of words somehow works makes wishes real. We see that on a nearly daily basis today, with such-and-such official saying that the worst of the crisis is in the past, how food will begin to re-appear in supermarkets next month, etc. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Oct 1, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 16:11
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:China is Venezuela's biggest creditor and I'd venture to say that China has played the key role in keeping Venezuela afloat this far. I guess Venezuela has no option now but to look for financing elsewhere, but that's going to be a really, really tough sell. This seems huge, and I'm surprised that it hasn't gotten more coverage. My understanding is one of the main things that had been supporting Venezuela since even before the oil collapse was China's willingness to throw good money after bad, and issue a series of large emergency loans. I wonder what happens when a new government takes power, and China insists that outstanding obligations be met. A saw an article a month or two back about Chinese owned business being looted and anti-chinese sentiment above and beyond the general anti-foreigner sentiment that often happens during crisis. I suspect things are going to get even worse in that regard.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 16:42
|
|
|
How does one set an inflation goal while simultaneously dismissing the existence of inflation.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 17:34
|
|
|
JohnGalt posted:How does one set an inflation goal while simultaneously dismissing the existence of inflation. Like this. That China is pulling the plug seems huge.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 17:39
|
|
|
I dont know posted:This seems huge, and I'm surprised that it hasn't gotten more coverage. My understanding is one of the main things that had been supporting Venezuela since even before the oil collapse was China's willingness to throw good money after bad, and issue a series of large emergency loans. I wonder what happens when a new government takes power, and China insists that outstanding obligations be met. A saw an article a month or two back about Chinese owned business being looted and anti-chinese sentiment above and beyond the general anti-foreigner sentiment that often happens during crisis. I suspect things are going to get even worse in that regard. As far as I know the government had been chasing new Chinese money during this entire past year and none had come in except some that went directly into Chinese companies operating on Venezuelan soil. I'll need to check the news again to be sure, though, but the point is, the Venezuelan government has been holding on the entire year with basically no cash reserves, scrounging up money wherever it can. This, of course, means less money for imports which means more people will suffer due to lack of food and medicine. On other news, the PSUV unconstitutionally removed two Voluntad Popular mayors from their posts this week. One is detained by the SEBIN (basically a political police force at this point) and the second is on the run because they want him as well. Following these events, the PSUV self-proclaimed two new mayors from among their ranks. Needless to say, even if the VP guys are indeed corrupt, it doesn't change the fact that the PSUV is getting bolder every day with its total disregard for the constitution.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 20:52
|
|
|
Labradoodle posted:
They had the Consejo Comunal (I don't know how to translate that) choose the new mayor lol It's loving infuriating living in this country
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 21:03
|
|
|
There's another article by Nick Casey in the NYT and associated photo diary. It's about the state of Venezuela's mental hospitals and the effects of the lack of meds generally. Not going to quote anything because you might as well read them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 21:08
|
|
|
El Hefe posted:They had the Consejo Comunal (I don't know how to translate that) choose the new mayor lol "Advisory Group", I guess? Don't look at me, I took Japanese in high school. Also, you know things are dire when even China thinks it's throwing good money after bad.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 21:11
|
|
|
Communal council is the word you're looking for.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 21:24
|
|
|
Mozi posted:There's another article by Nick Casey in the NYT and associated photo diary. It's about the state of Venezuela's mental hospitals and the effects of the lack of meds generally. Not going to quote anything because you might as well read them. drat that's hell, those two reporters won't be allowed back in the country that's for sure or they'll be extremely harassed. beer_war posted:Communal council is the word you're looking for. Ah yes that's the one, not really something you hear in English, I just googled it and it was just a bunch of Venezuelan links and something about Luxembourg of all places.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 21:53
|
|
|
Labradoodle posted:On other news, the PSUV unconstitutionally removed two Voluntad Popular mayors from their posts this week. One is detained by the SEBIN (basically a political police force at this point) and the second is on the run because they want him as well. Following these events, the PSUV self-proclaimed two new mayors from among their ranks. Needless to say, even if the VP guys are indeed corrupt, it doesn't change the fact that the PSUV is getting bolder every day with its total disregard for the constitution. Get used to it. Without money to finance their repression, the PSUV will turn to more and more brutal methods to suppress dissent.
|
|
#
?
Oct 1, 2016 23:22
|
|
|
JohnGalt posted:How does one set an inflation goal while simultaneously dismissing the existence of inflation. I don't know what the going theory was at the time, but the Minister of the Economy who famously said that inflation isn't a real thing (Luis Salas) isn't at his post anymore. I think he last just a few months. I can't remember his time in office exactly, but I think it was January to April of this year or something like that. The latest figures that I've seen for inflation (August 2015 to August 2016) are from Econometrica, and they've calculated the rate to be about 483%. At this pace the inflation rate at the end of 2016 will likely be in the 550-600% range. The Banco Central de Venezuela used to publish inflation and other economic numbers regularly, but they've stopped doing that. The National Assembly passed a bill this year to get the BCV to start publishing figures again, but the Supreme Court struck it down. The last time that the BCV published inflation numbers was at the end of 2015, when they revealed that the inflation rate for the year had been about 180%. EDIT: In other depressing news, Hasler Iglesias - a prominent student activist - was detained at the Simon Bolivar International Airport this afternoon for a "routine" inspection. He was on his was to Geneva, Switzerland, presumably for a political purpose. Iglesias was held for two hours and taken to a nearby hospital where he was forced to undergo and abdominal x-ray to make sure he wasn't smuggling drugs out of the country in his body. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Oct 2, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2016 00:08
|
|
|
I hope Matthew didn't cause much damage. Last thing you guys need is an extra bonus disaster.
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 03:09
|
|
|
I haven't heard of any fatalities or injuries. In fact, the only Matthew-related news that I've heard is that 80 homes in Tachira state suffered "small or mild" damage from torrential rains. The opposition is calling yesterday's "No" victoryin Colombia yet another in a growing list of defeats for "Castro-Chavismo". 15,442 Colombians living in Venezuela voted at the consulate yesterday, with "Yes" winning 64.13% of the vote.
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 12:56
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:I haven't heard of any fatalities or injuries. In fact, the only Matthew-related news that I've heard is that 80 homes in Tachira state suffered "small or mild" damage from torrential rains. Ugh, the opposition are such jackasses.
|
|
#
?
Oct 3, 2016 14:55
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Ugh, the opposition are such jackasses. Aside from the obvious apocalyptic effect that Chavismo has had on Venezuela, I think its most annoying byproduct is the tendency that a lot of Venezuelans now have to shoehorn Chavismo or Chavez into every single loving election around the world. If I had a dollar for every time I've read stupid comparisons between a party or a candidate from half-around the world and Chavismo, I would be hanging out with Diosdado on a private jet while comparing Swiss bank accounts. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Oct 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 4, 2016 00:19
|
|
|
In this case they are celebrating because the Castros were involved in the negotiations.
|
|
#
?
Oct 4, 2016 00:32
|
|
|
What kind of rep does Casto get in Venezuela now that he's normalized relations with the US? Is he a glorious communist leader or capitalist pig-dog-sheep-cow traitor? On FARC surrendering and that surrender getting rejected -  . The basic reason why FARC rebelled in the first place have only been partially addressed. Columbia is only a slightly less autocratic state - rocking that Gini index of 52.2 - though I can understand why many are tired of fighting. The original people who created FARC and fought in its ranks are grandparents now, and a lot of the ideological fervor that colored its early days has long since fallen by the wayside.I wonder what will ever happen to that Dutch chick who joined FARC back in 2010. She's wanted for kidnapping in the US, so she could never return to the Netherlands because of Interpol.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 08:48
|
|
|
Some news from the past few days: Foreign Affairs Minister Delcy Rodriguez filed a formal complaint against National Assembly President Henry Ramos Allup at the Public Ministry. As a leading opposition figure, Allup often bears the brunt of PSUV attacks. The complaint that Rodriguez filed alleges that Allup has committed "vilipendio" [which roughly means "contempt", "abuse" or "humiliation"] against state institutions and the constitution for his criticism of the government. Rodriguez also accused Allup of being a misogynist for his frequent criticism of top ranking female officials, including Rodriguez herself, Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz, and CNE President Tibisay Lucena. Allup fired back to that particular accusation yesterday, saying: quote:Let’s be clear. She [Rodriguez] can go anywhere she wants. Once the administration of justice is restored, you [Rodriguez] will pay for your systemic violation of the constitution and your involvement in crimes that affect the integrity of the country. You will discover that being a woman will not absolve you from judgement. quote:[Every Venezuelan woman should] denounce – nationally and internationally – this demon who hates women [Allup] (…) he’s a demon, man. We can’t put up with this. Who does he think he is? Hitler? He thinks he’s Hitler, [full of] vengeance. Watch yourself, Ramos Allup. If you take one false step, Ramos Allup, you know that I won’t hesitate. I’m not afraid of anything or anyone, Ramos Allup. You’re making a mistake. quote:But the priority is not holding elections. The priority in Venezuela is to fix the economy, attend to the people, continue to develop education and homes. It’s not holding elections. Also, Maduro has asked the Supreme Court to decide whether or not he can approve next year's budget without the approval of the National Assembly (hint: the TSJ will say yes!). The inevitable decision is important to note because the constitution clearly states that the National Assembly must debate and vote to approve the national budget each year. In bypassing the legislature, Maduro would essentially have 100% control of all of Venezuela's money with zero transparency and zero accountability. I'm not sure if this is much different from what's happening now, but if the Supreme Court rules with Maduro we would be able to add this to the growing list of evidence that Maduro is a dictator. A White Guy posted:What kind of rep does Casto get in Venezuela now that he's normalized relations with the US? Is he a glorious communist leader or capitalist pig-dog-sheep-cow traitor? Depending on who you ask, Castro (Raul and Fidel) are our brave brothers in the struggle against imperialism whose torch we must take up, or they're greedy dictators who are not interested in anyone's well-being but their own and who will stop at nothing to increase their own power and wealth at the expense of innocent lives.
|
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 14:41
|
|
|
A White Guy posted:What kind of rep does Casto get in Venezuela now that he's normalized relations with the US? Is he a glorious communist leader or capitalist pig-dog-sheep-cow traitor? Ah yes, the GINI coefficient. A famous marker of how well countries are doing, with the 15 lowest-GINI countries including the egalitarian paradises of Ukraine, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan. You might as well just use a random number generator. I kind of imagine the FARC will still peter out, with or without the peace agreement being signed. I can't imagine that either side will pick up arms wholescale and go back to la revolucion / death squads because 13,000 people voting the other way decided against it. The vote could have ended it faster, but in the long run I can't believe it will make a difference (except for the few dozen people who will be murdered in the next few months and would have otherwise avoided it), although I guess there's the chance that a more radical faction within FARC might break off from Timochenko and join up with ELN or go their own way. Back on topic: what ever came of the government's law that permits enslaving workers and sending them to the farms? Did that ever get implemented on any scale, or was it such an astonishingly bad idea that the government realized after passing it but before carrying it out? It's amazing the number of "News-worthy Events" that happen in Venezuela that never get any follow-up news whatsoever, even when I try searching in Spanish. How many days a week are government workers working now? Are malls now open during normal hours, or are they still out of electricity half the time? E: Huh, apparently the Tocoma Dam was finally finished, like 5 years late? I wonder if the reservoir will fill fast enough to help alleviate electricity shortages next dry season. Saladman fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Oct 5, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 5, 2016 16:07
|
|
|
I went to a presentation yesterday by Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, who is an economist and political commentator on Venezuela. He's written pretty extensively on Venezuela (he's been published in the New Yorker and the Atlantic) and he's appeared on CNN and Al Jazeera. Anyway, I picked up a couple of interesting tidbits at this talk:
The pran at PGV is a man named Franklin Hernandez (a.k.a. "Franklin Masacre", a.k.a. "Viru Viru"). Franklin has recorded two YouTube videos this week and addressed them to Minister of Penitentiaries Iris Varela. In the videos, Franklin accuses Valera and national authorities of trying to kill the prisoners through "attrition": that is, by starving them of food and medicine. The first video, released on Monday, shows what appear to be the dead body of an inmate. Franklin claims that the inmate has just died of tuberculosis, and that 24 other inmates have the disease. The video is here (  and  since it shows a dead body). I've translated the video below:quote:Franklin: Well, this is how he started the morning today, which is Monday, October 3. See? We’ve got a casualty here of… well, he was sick with tuberculosis, and he’s just died because he ran out of medicine. And there are 25 others like him. 25 minus him, so now it’s 24. They are the ones who are giving up their lives for the plan desgaste (?) [this literally means “plan of attrition”] that our minister [Varela] has. That’s why. So they don’t give us medicine. No! How is this possible? I don’t think it’s right. I don’t think it’s just. In the second video, which was published on Tuesday, Franklin shows some inmates receiving food. He again blamed Varela and prison officials of trying to kill the prisoners: quote:Franklin: This is the desperate situation we’re living through right now, see? This is a real, true desperate situation. This is the history of the Penitenciaria General de Venezuela, see? Mrs. Minister. Mrs. Iris Varela. Take a look. This is what we’re going through right now. They’re sick, and I’ve just made them a little bit of rice with chicken and water so we can at least keep them going. Can you imagine this? Do you understand what I’m saying? And then we have to go in there [into the prison cells] to give them food. Franklin was also in the news this week for another video, which I won't post here. In that video, an inmate at PGV talks about how Franklin amputated both of his thumbs over a dispute involving Bs. 200. Saladman posted:Back on topic: what ever came of the government's law that permits enslaving workers and sending them to the farms? Did that ever get implemented on any scale, or was it such an astonishingly bad idea that the government realized after passing it but before carrying it out? It's amazing the number of "News-worthy Events" that happen in Venezuela that never get any follow-up news whatsoever, even when I try searching in Spanish. How many days a week are government workers working now? Are malls now open during normal hours, or are they still out of electricity half the time? As for the work week and electricity rationing, I don't remember reading about the hours switching back to "normal". Maybe the Venegoons can tell us more about this? I know that my family in Valencia is often without electricity, but I don't know if that's due to rationing or just your run-of-the-mill electrical grid failure.
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 14:54
|
|
|
Chanchullo means "an illicit business", tramoya is Llanero slang, it means roughly the same as "paja", so it means "bullshit" Example: "El Ministerio de Educacion tiene un chanchullo con la legitimación de las notas y por eso tuve que abandonar el país sin mis calificaciones", and "Todo lo que dice Chuo Torrealba es pura tramoya". fnox fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Oct 6, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 16:25
|
|
|
There are still constant hours long blackouts all over the country yes, water service is also complete poo poo, most people don't get running water and have to hire tank trucks and the lucky few that do get water get it absolutely filthy. I was listening to a report yesterday on Nelson Bocaranda's radio show and they had some expert who said hospitals are seeing thousands of people infected with water borne diseases that are usually only seen in Africa and of course they don't even have the medicines to treat them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 16:34
|
|
|
No power shortages in Caracas for a couple of months now, but I haven't had running water for over two months. I pay some guys to carry big-rear end bottles of water two times per week to keep my two-person household going, which costs me a little less than a minimum wage per month.
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 21:07
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:I went to a presentation yesterday by Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, who is an economist and political commentator on Venezuela. He's written pretty extensively on Venezuela (he's been published in the New Yorker and the Atlantic) and he's appeared on CNN and Al Jazeera. Anyway, I picked up a couple of interesting tidbits at this talk: Gotta say, the prison kingpin makes a good point. 
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 21:37
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:Gotta say, the prison kingpin makes a good point. He does, until you consider that most people in Venezuela would be happy to let them die, and I say that with complete confidence. Consider the fact that most people who live here know at least one person that has been murdered during common muggings, including me. Personally, two acquaintances (not close ones) have been murdered during the past year, three close friends have gone through express kidnappings, and everyone I know has been mugged at gunpoint including me. While that prison kingpin would make a good point in any other place on earth, here, I would argue he's just a monster that should just spend the rest of his life in prison. The idea of being afraid every second you spend outside is hard to grasp, but that's the reality of living here. Every time I'm outside after dark, I'm scared that either the police or kidnappers will intercept me when I come back home and demand ramson or shoo me in some prison. That is not an exaggeration, it's normal, and I live in a lovely neighborhood –it can happen whenever and anywhere.
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 22:01
|
|
|
You ever think of leaving Venezuela?
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 22:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 06:05 |
|
|
Baloogan posted:You ever think of leaving Venezuela? Yes, I'm lucky. I'm a freelancer and I should have enough saved up to leave within the first three months next year and move to Argentina while sending money back home. If that weren't a factor, I would've gotten the hell out of dodge already.
|
|
#
?
Oct 6, 2016 22:11
|
|