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Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


sean10mm posted:

My dream is for him to get <40% of the popular vote.

yeah i want him to be goldwater.

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Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Have Some Flowers! posted:

I think even if Texas somehow went blue this time, it would be written off as the Trump anomaly.

When the GOP throws a milquetoast Romney/Kasich type white guy at us in 2020, the white women will flood back their way.

Even though Pence wants 2020, I think he will be irreparably damaged by association from this.

Hell of an assumption that Republicans will get their misogyny sufficiently in check after 4 years of Hillary to win White Women again.

The last eight years of racism is just a prelude to the next four/eight years of misogyny. It is going to be breathtaking, and by 2024 Republicans are going to be all in representing only older white men.

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Dead Cosmonaut posted:

She's not wrong

No, but not the greatest timing - the Saudis are our allies, and we're already not in the greatest spot with that loving veto override. Still, by comparison...

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I'm going back to my post DNC high prediction of 375 EVs for Hillary. I really think that it can now happen based on this map.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/QxxPy

Georgia blue before Indiana?

Zoph
Sep 12, 2005

Have Some Flowers! posted:

I think even if Texas somehow went blue this time, it would be written off as the Trump anomaly.

When the GOP throws a milquetoast Romney/Kasich type white guy at us in 2020, the white women will flood back their way.

Even though Pence wants 2020, I think he will be irreparably damaged by association from this.

Given that Romney's gaffes and failures *still* can be felt in this election (even if only to be held up against how loving awful Trump is), I don't think people will forget this in 4 years. The Dems will probably do everything in their power to remind them.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?
https://twitter.com/emmaroller/status/784818500510638081

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
The only thing, and I mean the absolute ONLY thing that could make this any better is if Trump really WAS a secret liberal and ran an ironic campaign and then set about tanking once he got the nomination to throw it to HIllary.

That was an extreme longshot to begin with, but now with that video it's impossible.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


https://twitter.com/AndrewBahl/status/784822220333912064

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

No GOPer should be able to get away with anything less than an endorsement of Hillary Clinton. This is horseshit.

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

Geoff Peterson posted:

She has a legitimate shot to be the first candidate in 5 cycles (possibly longer? I'm struggling to find aggregated exits that stretch back that far) to win a majority with both white women and non-white voters. Clearly, her candidacy is costing the Democrats a chance to turn Texas blue.

Whatever Hillary's merits, the truth is that people really really really loving hate her, especially in the South/south-ish states.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

seiferguy posted:

Has anyone made the joke that Trump's tiny hands couldn't even grab a whole pussy yet?

Better than that.

quote:

Jill Harth’s first concern with Donald Trump’s hands wasn’t that they were small. It’s that they were everywhere.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

Georgia blue before Indiana?

This is in line with the polls of those states, yeah. Georgia's demographically shifting towards purple, Indiana... isn't. Not as much, anyway.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007


Nonplussed is like the most ambiguous goddamn word you can use there.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

Which definition of "nonplussed" is this

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.


Is he using that in the informal 'Not concerned' fashion or the formal 'So surprised they have no idea how to react' one?

Bushiz
Sep 21, 2004

The #1 Threat to Ba Sing Se

Grimey Drawer

Runaktla posted:

I really doubt Pence's career was over he could easily be billed as the guy intending to set the outsider-turned-president straight. I think he's running in 2020 and has a good shot to be nominated.

Plus look at all the poo poo Trump has done which never harmed him. He really had to go the extra mile and be insanely horrible for the media and voters to turn on him. Pence is angelic in comparison to the average Republican voter.

Pence is a candidate in the mold of Romney, and can't capitalize on the same fervence that trump wrangled because fundamentally, Mike Pence is an establishment stooge. He lacks the charisma and boisterousness to capitalize on the Trump wave, and is too poisoned by association to ever be taken seriously among the Very Serious People ever again.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P



Kasich: I told you so

quote:

"Nothing that has happened in the last 48 hours is surprising to me or many others," said Kasich, referencing the video recording that became public Friday of Trump bragging to TV host Billy Bush about his ability to sexually assault attractive women with impunity because of his fame.

The statement from Kasich, a two-term swing state governor whose raised profile and anti-Trump stance position him as a top establishment contender for the GOP's 2020 nomination, was as much an explanation and a reminder as to why he's never been able to support Trump as it was a condemnation of the party's sinking nominee.

"Many people were angry and questioned why I would not endorse Donald Trump or attend the Republican Convention," he continued. "I’ve long had concerns with Donald Trump that go beyond his temperament. We have substantive policy differences on conservative issues like trade, our relationship with Russia, and the importance of balancing the federal budget.

"I’ve held out hope that he would change on those disqualifying policy positions, but he has not. I’ve also encouraged him to change his behavior for the better and offer a positive, inclusive vision for our country, but he has not.

"It's clear that he hasn't changed and has no interest in doing so," Kasich continued. "As a result, Donald Trump is a man I cannot and should not support. The actions of the last day are disgusting, but that’s not why I reached this decision, it has been an accumulation of his words and actions that many have been warning about. I will not vote for a nominee who has behaved in a manner that reflects so poorly on our country."

"Our country deserves better."

Buckle up for 2020.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

Whatever Hillary's merits, the truth is that people really really really loving hate her, especially in the South/south-ish states.

Yeah, I don't get it. My cousins and uncle, who are a bit dumb but not insane, are convinced she's the source of all evil. The gently caress did she do? I get why berniebros don't like her, even if I think they're likely retarded because of it, but I don't get how people who are usually reasonable and sane got convinced she's some sort of antichrist.

Augus
Mar 9, 2015


"party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt"
:barf:

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

PT6A posted:

Yeah, I don't get it. My cousins and uncle, who are a bit dumb but not insane, are convinced she's the source of all evil. The gently caress did she do? I get why berniebros don't like her, even if I think they're likely retarded because of it, but I don't get how people who are usually reasonable and sane got convinced she's some sort of antichrist.

Woman approaching power.

That's seriously it.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/784822932119887872
:getin:

comingafteryouall
Aug 2, 2011


bad boy in the boy band posted:

The only thing, and I mean the absolute ONLY thing that could make this any better is if Trump really WAS a secret liberal and ran an ironic campaign and then set about tanking once he got the nomination to throw it to HIllary.

That was an extreme longshot to begin with, but now with that video it's impossible.

Why would a guy who acted like Trump did (does) be convinced to run an ironic campaign to expose misogyny?

He's just a piece of poo poo that got rid of the racial dog whistles and is now getting rid of the sexist dog whistles. His comments are completely in the same vein as previous Republican's.

D O R K Y
Sep 1, 2001


I really love between Springer and Stern who wore the title of bastions of filth all throughout the 90s are now uniquely poised to just show how much of a true creep Donald really is. It's like some great vindication for them in the mainstream.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

He can't win a GOP Primary.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Geoff Peterson posted:

Sure they could. But "well-organized third party" is a unicorn in modern american politics.

In order to gain relevance, they'd need a number of well-funded, well-publicized candidates in 2018, and they'd need to win in those congressional and statewide races. It can't be the senate, because if that's anywhere close they'll be forced to caucus with one party or the other and that'll lose them their independence. They may be able to get a few Governors mansions (Minnesota has the most recent history there and neither party has anyone strong to replace the retiring Mark Dayton... but it's not as if Jesse's victory lead to a Libertarian/Reform Party Moment nationwide), but even then, what's "relevant" in the 2020 presidential election?

If the GOP goes to the hardcore right again, then there'll be room to the center between Hillary and the candidate-but is the GOP going to allow another Trump? Centrism doesn't typically play real well in midterms either (ask the Blue Dogs!) If the GOP establishment takes the reins back, are you going hard right? The super-conservative Third Party field is already crowded and doesn't seem like a great bet for 2018 when you need ideologically consistent victories. Are you attacking Hillary from the left? I'd love to see huge gains from Left-Liberals in 2018, but that goes against everything we've seen electorally for decades.

I think it's more likely you see a well-organized primary movement, and I'd expect it to be GOP. If Business thinks that it has a willing negotiating partner in Clinton, I think you'll see a movement to primary out the Raiders of the Tortilla Coast so that the obstructionism drops off and the economy can get moving again for the first time in a decade.


Yes, Hillary has no chance in a racially diverse state. For instance, look at how crucial whiteness was to her support in the primaries.



She has a legitimate shot to be the first candidate in 5 cycles (possibly longer? I'm struggling to find aggregated exits that stretch back that far) to win a majority with both white women and non-white voters. Clearly, her candidacy is costing the Democrats a chance to turn Texas blue.

Is there a breakdown on why her support looks bimodal for majority minority districts?

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.


Oh jesus yes.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Night10194 posted:

Woman approaching power.

That's seriously it.

I know that's probably a common factor, but my relatives all have fairly healthy and progressive attitudes toward women. Maybe deep down they're sexists and pissed off that they can't treat their wives like property, I honestly don't know.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
poo poo man, I wonder if Trump gets creamed tomorrow if he'll actually quit.

This loving election.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

PT6A posted:

I know that's probably a common factor, but my relatives all have fairly healthy and progressive attitudes toward women. Maybe deep down they're sexists and pissed off that they can't treat their wives like property, I honestly don't know.

It's not that they're secret sexists. A lot of it is an unexamined bias but it also happens because it hasn't happened before, you know? We've never had a woman winning a presidential election and poised to be president before. If they're reasonable people they'll probably get over it after 4 years.

HookedOnChthonics
Dec 5, 2015

Profoundly dull


Dork457 posted:

I really love between Springer and Stern who wore the title of bastions of filth all throughout the 90s are now uniquely poised to just show how much of a true creep Donald really is. It's like some great vindication for them in the mainstream.

Springer was also a reasonably liked big-city mayor, so he's a far more competent political mind than Trump on top of everything else

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx
https://twitter.com/toddstarnes/status/784805927589249026

:getin:

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007


... isn't Carson a big Trump supporter?

Geoff Peterson
Jan 1, 2012

by exmarx

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

Whatever Hillary's merits, the truth is that people white men really really really loving hate her, especially in the South/south-ish states.

Fixed that for you.

I'm sure that

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

Literally anybody other than Hillary
would stand a far better chance than she does, if that was the only group we were looking at.

speng31b
May 8, 2010



Gifted hands, small hands.

Relentlessboredomm
Oct 15, 2006

It's Sic Semper Tyrannis. You said, "Ever faithful terrible lizard."

loving magnificent.

Tagichatn
Jun 7, 2009

Bushiz posted:

Pence is a candidate in the mold of Romney, and can't capitalize on the same fervence that trump wrangled because fundamentally, Mike Pence is an establishment stooge. He lacks the charisma and boisterousness to capitalize on the Trump wave, and is too poisoned by association to ever be taken seriously among the Very Serious People ever again.

Wth is a fervence.

negromancer
Aug 20, 2014

by FactsAreUseless
Trump should really fight this and even bring out Brock Turner with him on the campaign trail.

After all, a lot of white dudes backed him all the way and actually did grab the pussy in a back alley.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


ImpAtom posted:

... isn't Carson a big Trump supporter?

The first question you always ask when a story like yesterday's drops: "... what else is there?"

Trump probably confessed.

Ringo Star Get
Sep 18, 2006

JUST FUCKING TAKE OFF ALREADY, SHIT
I'm going with nonplussed as in "we don't give a poo poo what he did to women, he's making America great again and we are still voting for him."

Which doesn't surprise me. There's a lot of white racist people that want Trump to be president because of all the stuff he will do for white people. He said he could shoot someone in broad daylight and get away with it. He could not pay taxes for 20 years. It doesn't matter. He is going to keep white hierarchy strong with Men at the top, then 20 steps down, women, then at the dirt bottom, minorities.

He will still get 40% of the vote because there are a lot of terrible people that believe the things he says. They didn't like having a black president, and like hell a liberal woman is going to be the next president.

It's honestly terrible. My Facebook feed reveals more and more people that I am friends with that they care more about themselves than others, and are happy to elect this shitstain of a human being because it will benefit them and only them.

There can be a video of Trump crushing a kitten with the heel of his shoe, and nothing will change. This is what the last 8 years of hatred have built up to - a crazy Republican presidential nominee that is a high concentration of all the worst things of Republican voters: racist, misogynistic, greedy, and straight up living in an insane reality that doesn't exist.

There will be riots if Hillary wins. There will be more psychos. Either the GOP somehow rebuilds itself to something respectable after this, or a new party emerges with Trump at the lead, and makes active attempts at presidential runs because he can nab at least 30% of the nation.

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Tarezax
Sep 12, 2009

MORT cancels dance: interrupted by MORT

Bip Roberts posted:

Is there a breakdown on why her support looks bimodal for majority minority districts?

That's probably black people vs other minorities. Her support with black people is significantly stronger.

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