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ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July


The end is nigh. Not quite nigh enough since the government is still open, I suppose, but there are only 38 days left to Election Day, which is as good as the end of things as we know them. Let us celebrate as we stare into the maw of the abyss that is USPOL October.






A Short FAQ

Before we get to the good stuff, there have been a number of new people posting in USPOL over the past few months, so I feel it’s necessary to preemptively answer some common questions.

  • :derp: Arzying :derp: is a USPOL term for being a “chicken little” and panicking over every piece of "bad news" for your candidate (even if there's far more good news). The typical response to someone Arzying over Hillary is "post your map," a reference to the fact that the Electoral College is currently far more likely to favor Hillary, even if the popular vote is close to a tie. The term is named for former D&D poster Arzy, who freaked out at every little piece of bad news for Obama during the 2008 election. He later went all in for Romney in 2012 and is due to be unprobated in time for the 2024 elections.
  • A corncob is a person who has been completely and utterly owned. @dril is an Internet treasure for inadvertently coining this term.

    https://twitter.com/dril/status/134787490526658561




Trump Campaign Advent Calendar (NEW! Oct 8)

Because this seems to be changing hourly, we might as well have a table of everything Trump's done wrong this month.



This calendar should automatically update every 6 hours based on changes to a post by itsnickk on Reddit whose table I unabashedly copy; head there to actually have followable links. (h/t Party Plane Jones)






114th Congress Bingo Card

No more congressional action until the lame duck session. So let’s review what our wonderful Congress has managed to do this month.







Other News

Featuring the Clinton Corner

It is official. InfoWars now confirms: Hillary is dying

One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered Democratic Party when Breitbart confirmed that Hillary Clinton’s vote share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all voters. Coming on the heels of a recent InfoWars survey which plainly states that Hillary Clinton has lost more voter share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. Hillary is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by coming dead last in a recent poll of millennials which asked which candidate would do best at regulating Wall Street.

Suffice to say, I think it’s obvious that you should dehumanize yourself and face to Trump.

Anyway, on with the other news…


Talk to other goons (why would you want to do that?)
Remember that we have an IRC channel at synirc in #poligoon for livesteaming stuff.



Goon Recommendations
Documentaries

Talks

Long pieces

Books

Twitter feeds

  • @costareports (Robert Costa, Washington Post, formerly National Review): Conservative-leaning journalist to whom Republican sources often leak backroom stories (Republican retreats, Presidential campaigns, etc.)
  • @JohnJHarwood (John Harwood, CNBC, New York Times): Has a lot of sources in the Republican Party and was the first to report on Paul Manafort leaving the Trump campaign in August 2016.
  • @daveweigel (Dave Weigel, Bloomberg Politics, formerly Slate): "Idiosyncratic libertarian" journalist who is second only to Robert Costa in connections/interviews with Republican officials. Contrary to popular belief, not D&D superstar Joementum.
  • @BruceBartlett (Bruce Bartlett, ex-Reagan/Bush official): "Lifelong conservative who now thinks the GOP panders to fools, whom he calls wankers. My tweets should not always be taken seriously."
  • The following are semi-random selections from a list offered by Rygar201 and may be good or bad.
    • @owillis (Olivier Willis, research fellow, Media Matters)
    • @mattyglesias (Matt Yglesias, executive editor, Vox)
    • @JuddLegum (Judd Legum, Editor-in-Chief, Think Progress)
    • @dick_nixon "37th President of the United States. Messages from the President are unsigned, others from Ronald Ziegler. "
    • @EricBoehlert (Eric Boehlert, Media Matters)
    • @JamilSmith (Jamil Smith, senior editor, The New Republic)
    • @jonathanchait (Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine)
    • @nielslesniewski (Neils Lesniewski, Senate coverage, Roll Call)
    • @abwhite7 (Abraham White, former comms for Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), Chuck Schumer (D-NY))
    • @DSenFloor (Senate D Floor Watch): "Live floor updates from the Senate Democrats"
    • @billmon1 (Billmon)
    • @ebruenig (Elizabeth Bruenig, The New Republic)

Related threads
"US Politics" is an incredibly broad topic, as A) the country is freaking huge and B) given our role in international events pretty much everything impacts us. So there are other subthreads
2016 Presidential Primary
2016 US Senate Elections
SCOTUS thread
Right Wing Media

There are also regional subthreads that are usually pretty slow, but sometimes cross-pollinate with this thread when something important is happening.
Pacific Northwest
Illinois
Texas
California

Lifted the rest of the above from FriedChicken. As before post suggestions for adding to the above and I'll edit them in if I see them.

And remember folks, drink chat goes in D&D chat thread. Drink responsibly. Your liver will thank you.


ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 23:28 on Oct 8, 2016

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

lozzle
Oct 22, 2012

by zen death robot
I don't know if this was posted in the other thread or not, but the San Diego Union Tribune has endorsed Hillary Clinton, after never endorsing a Democrat in its 148 year history.

Artificer
Apr 8, 2010

You're going to try ponies and you're. Going. To. LOVE. ME!!
I enjoy that corncobbing is in the OP now.

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!



Other than being owned, corncobbing is totally some weird filthy sex act, right?

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Continued from the previous thread:

Dicky mouse posted:

Remember prestors jane's predictions?

Are we getting close to him calling for open violence?

I asked PJ about this. Seeing as she's reliably predicted the arc of the election over and over again I thought I'd ask her what she thought a Trump loss would look like. When I asked her this was her prediction:

quote:

Between now and the election I expect Trump to be more Trump than ever, with a general trend of increasing Trumpiness. Last night was a huge deal for him, 100 million people watching him live. It should have been the single biggest dose of Supply he has ever gotten, but instead he was publicly laughed at and is enduring endless taunting and provocation from all angles. So imagine a hardcore addict that just scored the purest heroin ever only to have it stolen from him right before he got to shoot up and you can imagine the kind of over-riding outrage and roiling hatred that is consuming Donald right now. I imagine behind the scenes he is throwing toddler-like tantrums (shouting, swearing, tears of rage, violently destroying valuable possessions) that are probably pretty terrifying to his campaign staff.

So I expect that Trump has generally hit his peak and it is more or less downhill from here, barring some sort of unforseen development he will continue to sputter and lash out. By the time the election rolls around I expect that the American public will be so terrified/furious that this will turn into an anti-GOP election. People aren't going to vote for Hillary as much as they are going to vote against Trump. I expect that Trump will lose by a Goldwater-esque blowout, the Senate will flip Democrat, and the House will either narrow considerably or possible flip Democrat. (Only about a 30% of retaking the house at this point, so completely possible but not the most likely outcome.

Trump will handle this very badly and as a result the first three months post election are going to be one of the darker (but thankfully short lived) chapters of American history. Trump will challenge the authenticity of the results and I expect will attempt to incite his followers to violence, a call that will be echoed not only by the crazies in the militia movement but even some religious leaders and elected GOP officials. This will result in perhaps as many as a half dozen new Malheurs, hopefully all of which end with a minimum of tragedy. There will also be a massive uptick in hate crimes (already occurring, but going to get much worse( and probably enough acts of genuine right wing terror (mostly mass shootings and not-terribly-competent bombings) to force even the mainstream media to start talking about the serious problem of right wing extremism.

Once we get passed that first three months though things will calm down and some sort of normalcy will eventually begin to re-assert itself. Despite the massive compaction cycles we are seeing play out at present, there are only so many Narrativists and you lose a few Narrativists with every compaction cycle. (Say roughly for every 100 Narrativists that experience a compaction cycle, perhaps 3 or 4 will turn away from Narrativism) Right now we are experiencing a publicly visible rapid rise in relative Compaction levels (ongoing narrative convergence is driving many compaction cycles), and that makes things look terrible. But what is not so publicly obvious right now is that the total number of Narrativists is decreasing. Eventually there will simply be too few Narrativists to maintain the present narrative convergence. In short, desire how bad things look now, and despite how bad things are going to look in a little bit, there really is only so much fuel for this fire to consume, and it will eventually burn itself out. Once that happens the healing process will begin, and America will emerge from our collective identity crises as a stronger, more thoughtful people.

To me, a trained political scientist, this is a hard pill to swallow. The only thing that gets me to accept this as a possibility is that PJ has been reliably correct over and over again. I had no idea where this election was going or why it got where it was for months. We'd all just arrive at bizarre outcomes over and over again and the only person who I've found (so far and so far in the past) who has predicted the election with any degree of sustained accuracy has been PJ. I went back and read some of her earlier predictions. It seemed crazy at the time. The above seems crazy to me now, but not out of the question like I thought just a few months ago.

It's my belief that Trump is a mentally ill person who believes his own bullshit and has ridden a political wave to where he is now. If I accept PJ's prediction as true then enough crazy people are going to listen to Trump that if/when he loses that there are going to be sporadic acts of right wing terrorism. My original prediction was that time would be the greatest limiting factor as we're now just shy of a month away. While that might not mean a Mondale wipeout, him acting like a crazy person and inciting his followers to violence doesn't have such a strict time limit on it as people are still going to listen to him, though the remaining ones are going to grow increasingly angry and disconnected from reality as each event of violence leaves fewer and fewer of them.

The reason why I think it'll fizzle out in the end is that like TapTheForwardAssist said, people are mostly comfortable right now. They're going to be angry, but only the craziest true believers will do anything about it. The rest will just talk poo poo.

TapTheForwardAssist posted:

The economy is okay-ish, food prices are attainable, emergency medical care available, and broadly speaking a good chunk of the population are able to eat and have internet by one means or another. While individuals may exist with a perfect storm of "wife leaving me and taking the kids, got fired, out of funds and creditors calling, own guns, underlying mental issues, and I hate Hillary", the overall body of people are comfortable enough that they aren't going to risk it all stirring up serious poo poo. While you have some Bin Laden/Bundy folks who are willing to risk danger despite their privileged position, they're a pretty small cadre.

Overall just most Americans are vaguely comfortable enough that taking huge personal risk is unappealing compared to bitching, or are mentally unhinged enough to not be a competent threat. But boy howdy will they talk some poo poo.

If all of this happens as laid out though it means we're heading for a political realignment. Trump is the result (some may say end result, but I'm not convinced) of the GOP and the right feeding their voters a steady diet of fear, hate and paranoia for generations. Most politicians never believed this. Those that did were outliers. But their voters did, or at least enough of them. Dogwhistle racism is not only a way to be racist without being called one, but dogwhistling is also a training tool. It helps prepare for actual commands. Trump went from dogwhistle racism to actual racism and his followers are eating it up because "he tells it like it is" and "isn't afraid to be politically incorrect".

My only hope is that if PJ is correct, that it goes further, smashes the GOP and we can have a total realignment. The GOP in a few years becomes a party that I could see myself voting for because they're no longer racist, sexist, homophobic, wealth hording or bedroom invading. Maybe they're a little lovely, but I'd no longer be trapped voting for democrats because they're not totally incompetent and abusive.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Oct 1, 2016

Star Man
Jun 1, 2008

There's a star maaaaaan
Over the rainbow
Things are going to be okay in November.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

lozzle posted:

I don't know if this was posted in the other thread or not, but the San Diego Union Tribune has endorsed Hillary Clinton, after never endorsing a Democrat in its 148 year history.

It was. And they aren't the only ones. As noted in an article in the OP:

  • USA Today endorsed a candidate (Hillary) for the first time in its history
  • The Detroit News endorsed their first non-Republican, Gary Johnson, in its 143-year history
  • The Arizona Republic also endorsed their first Democrat in its 126-year history
  • The Cincinnati Enquirer, Dallas Morning News and Houston Chronicle all broke their traditions of endorsing the Republican and instead endorsed Clinton
  • The New Hampshire Union Leader, Chicago Tribune and Richmond Times-Dispatch both endorsed Gary Johnson

Someone in the last thread made a list of the four(!) newspapers that endorsed Trump. Three are owned by his buddies (including the National Enquirer) and one is in Santa Barbara. That's just about it.

Saeka
Jul 2, 2007

I'm a man that loves the simple things. Sunhats. Boba. Dresses.

And so begins my 28th October, in which Donald J. Trump continues to cuck himself :D

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

Ice Phisherman posted:

Continued from the previous thread:


I asked PJ about this. Seeing as she's reliably predicted the arc of the election over and over again I thought I'd ask her what she thought a Trump loss would look like. When I asked her this was her prediction:


To me, a trained political scientist, this is a hard pill to swallow. The only thing that gets me to accept this as a possibility is that PJ has been reliably correct over and over again. I had no idea where this election was going or why it got where it was for months. We'd all just arrive at bizarre outcomes over and over again and the only person who I've found (so far and so far in the past) who has predicted the election with any degree of sustained accuracy has been PJ. I went back and read some of her earlier predictions. It seemed crazy at the time. The above seems crazy to me now, but not out of the question like I thought just a few months ago.

It's my belief that Trump is a mentally ill person who believes his own bullshit and has ridden a political wave to where he is now. If I accept PJ's prediction as true then enough crazy people are going to listen to Trump that if/when he loses that there are going to be sporadic acts of right wing terrorism. My original prediction was that time would be the greatest limiting factor as we're now just shy of a month away. While that might not mean a Mondale wipeout, him acting like a crazy person and inciting his followers to violence doesn't have such a strict time limit on it as people are still going to listen to him, though the remaining ones are going to grow increasingly angry and disconnected from reality as each event of violence leaves fewer and fewer of them.

The reason why I think it'll fizzle out in the end is that like TapTheForwardAssist said, people are mostly comfortable right now. They're going to be angry, but only the craziest true believers will do anything about it. The rest will just talk poo poo.


If all of this happens as laid out though it means we're heading for a political realignment. Trump is the result (some may say end result, but I'm not convinced) of the GOP and the right feeding their voters a steady diet of fear, hate and paranoia for generations. Most politicians never believed this. Those that did were outliers. But their voters did, or at least enough of them. Dogwhistle racism is not only a way to be racist without being called one, but dogwhistling is also a training tool. It helps prepare for actual commands. Trump went from dogwhistle racism to actual racism and his followers are eating it up because "he tells it like it is" and "isn't afraid to be politically incorrect".

My only hope is that if PJ is correct, that it goes further, smashes the GOP and we can have a total realignment. The GOP in a few years becomes a party that I could see myself voting for because they're no longer racist, sexist, homophobic, wealth hording or bedroom invading. Maybe they're a little lovely, but I'd no longer be trapped voting for democrats for the single reason that they're not totally incompetent and abusive.

Sup fellow trained Poli Sci goon! (Grad student or are you a prof by now?)

I agree with you - I think PJ has the psychology down, but overestimates his influence and ability to actually raise a stink post-election. Especially if Hillary wins by a convincing margin, there's no way Trump incites any violence beyond a very few nuts. Worst he'll do is not concede, maybe demand recounts, and cry foul while everyone laughs at how ridiculous his conspiracies are. It'll help delegitimize Hillary, like the birther movement did Obama, but it won't do much more than that.

There was a good article someone posted in the last iteration of the thread, that noted that while we might not see a real change in the party system or realignment in that sense, we might see a policy realignment as Dems adopt free trade and policies that benefit minorities and wealthy/educated urban city dwellers, while the Republicans persist in the rural areas (south and midwest), fighting between the two for the suburbs and exurbs.

Anyone predicting the demise of the GOP is just wrong. All it takes is one recession, one major fuckup by Hillary or the Dems, or one dogwhistler who can control himself and sell himself as a center-right moderate (like W did) and the Republicans will be back in charge. They've got the house on lockdown until at least 2022, and will probably do well enough in 2020 to maintain their gerrymandered advantage.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

ComradeCosmobot posted:

It is official. InfoWars now confirms: Hillary is dying

One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered Democratic Party when Breitbart confirmed that Hillary Clinton’s vote share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all voters. Coming on the heels of a recent InfoWars survey which plainly states that Hillary Clinton has lost more voter share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. Hillary is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by coming dead last in a recent poll of millennials which asked which candidate would do best at regulating Wall Street.

:perfect:

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Ice Phisherman posted:

Continued from the previous thread:


I asked PJ about this. Seeing as she's reliably predicted the arc of the election over and over again I thought I'd ask her what she thought a Trump loss would look like. When I asked her this was her prediction:


To me, a trained political scientist, this is a hard pill to swallow. The only thing that gets me to accept this as a possibility is that PJ has been reliably correct over and over again. I had no idea where this election was going or why it got where it was for months. We'd all just arrive at bizarre outcomes over and over again and the only person who I've found (so far and so far in the past) who has predicted the election with any degree of sustained accuracy has been PJ. I went back and read some of her earlier predictions. It seemed crazy at the time. The above seems crazy to me now, but not out of the question like I thought just a few months ago.

It's my belief that Trump is a mentally ill person who believes his own bullshit and has ridden a political wave to where he is now. If I accept PJ's prediction as true then enough crazy people are going to listen to Trump that if/when he loses that there are going to be sporadic acts of right wing terrorism. My original prediction was that time would be the greatest limiting factor as we're now just shy of a month away. While that might not mean a Mondale wipeout, him acting like a crazy person and inciting his followers to violence doesn't have such a strict time limit on it as people are still going to listen to him, though the remaining ones are going to grow increasingly angry and disconnected from reality as each event of violence leaves fewer and fewer of them.

The reason why I think it'll fizzle out in the end is that like TapTheForwardAssist said, people are mostly comfortable right now. They're going to be angry, but only the craziest true believers will do anything about it. The rest will just talk poo poo.


If all of this happens as laid out though it means we're heading for a political realignment. Trump is the result (some may say end result, but I'm not convinced) of the GOP and the right feeding their voters a steady diet of fear, hate and paranoia for generations. Most politicians never believed this. Those that did were outliers. But their voters did, or at least enough of them. Dogwhistle racism is not only a way to be racist without being called one, but dogwhistling is also a training tool. It helps prepare for actual commands. Trump went from dogwhistle racism to actual racism and his followers are eating it up because "he tells it like it is" and "isn't afraid to be politically incorrect".

My only hope is that if PJ is correct, that it goes further, smashes the GOP and we can have a total realignment. The GOP in a few years becomes a party that I could see myself voting for because they're no longer racist, sexist, homophobic, wealth hording or bedroom invading. Maybe they're a little lovely, but I'd no longer be trapped voting for democrats because they're not totally incompetent and abusive.

I had my own posts on this subject in the last thread, though I'm nowhere near as familiar with this as Prester Jane or people actually trained in this so take their word on this over mine. I just hope that, if more Malheurs happen after the election, that they go, well, more or less like the first one did, minus the damage to sacred native land and artifacts and stuff.

I posted:

Most of Y'all Qaeda was also too chickenshit to actually do anything when the poo poo hit the fan; the moment the FBI dropped the hammer, almost all of them surrendered and went home. The only exceptions were Finicum (who was probably panicking and/or legitimately thought he could escape/shoot his way out, and was also a special level of awful person, what with his effective child slavery and all) and the poor guy at the end who, in addition to already having mental issues and being depressed, was primarily left behind because the other assholes couldn't stand him and pushed him out of the vehicle as they left, leaving him suicidal after everything collapsed and he spent several days trapped with the other three remaining assholes (who likewise caved pretty easily for all their harsh words). And I guess the Bundy father perhaps, but he didn't get a chance to do anything because he was an idiot who took a plane and was nabbed at the airport because he had no protection or guns after disembarking. As a whole, the movement got together, felt empowered by their guns and numbers, threw their weight around as long as they met no resistance, and then crumbled the moment real consequences (beyond destroying their insides with lovely food and crapping in a hole outside) loomed.

Now, I'm admittedly not an expert on this sort of thing, but from what I can see, most of Trump's supporters are the same. There are almost definitely some people out there who are truly dangerous, but, well, they'd probably be dangerous anyway, I think. There will probably be horrible things happening post-election (we've already seen that Trump's stirred up enough hate to cause the hate crime rate to increase), but I doubt there's going to be an epidemic of McVeigh-style attacks or anything. Most of his supporters are loudmouthed assholes who mostly just yell at people on the Internet or occasionally on the street.

Hopefully, at least. I dunno, maybe one of the people who studies this sort of thing professionally will have a different opinion.

Bonus me and EHF making fun of Bundy and Finicum:

quote:

Epic High Five posted:

Also the Bundys are the biggest welfare queens in the country that aren't incorporated
That's one of the things that's so hilarious to me about them and Finicum becoming conservative idols; they are the "welfare queen" stereotype they so often attack. Like, besides using them for (illegal, as far as I'm aware) labor, the many kids Finicum fostered got him absurd amounts of money, which is also the only reason his business stayed afloat; without the subsidized child labor, his farm was completely and utterly unprofitable.

And yet he's held up as a conservative icon and hero. It's ridiculous

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 08:21 on Oct 1, 2016

Anagram of GINGER
Oct 3, 2014

by Smythe
wow new thread first page

I read you every night to fall asleep. I skipped ahead to the debate and worried I might run out of new posts. Silly me

Factsareuseless did you get that Lowered Expectations gif made

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

lozzle posted:

I don't know if this was posted in the other thread or not, but the San Diego Union Tribune has endorsed Hillary Clinton, after never endorsing a Democrat in its 148 year history.

Improvements at the UT. I was in San Diego for a few days two weeks ago, and reading the paper reminded me why the UT was fit for papering the kitty boxes of many a household, without nary a glance.

Thank god they don't employ Ruben Navarrette anymore. That guy would be an apologist for a latino Holocaust so long as the Republicans perpetrated it.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



I made a longer post following up on that that I submitted after the thread got closed and it lost, but basically they're welfare queens to the core

Their industry and the land they raise their heavily subsidized cattle on wouldn't exist without enormous government subsidies. So it's esp funny when they want to destroy revenue positive things like tourist spots to graze their cattle. The west isn't about cows anymore, and beef is a luxury good subsidized to be affordable

Plus Bundy's cattle were so vermin infested and feral that his neighbors had to get extra vaccines for their cattle if they wanted the beef to be salable lmao

Some fucjing shepherd of God's creation

Mister Facetious
Apr 21, 2007

I think I died and woke up in L.A.,
I don't know how I wound up in this place...

:canada:

Too many witnesses to kill, too many cameras to confiscate, too many apps to livestream.
They can no longer obfuscate their actions.

viva la revolucion

canepazzo
May 29, 2006



https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/782117968117428224

:getin:

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Hillary's social media team are rising rapidly through the ranks and will be a terror for decades to come

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



JosefStalinator posted:

Sup fellow trained Poli Sci goon! (Grad student or are you a prof by now?)

Hey fellow PS goon. :)

Neither. Four year degree only. Didn't have the cash or the will to keep going. Bounced around for a few years at lovely jobs, read a lot of literature to stay current and keep my skills from rusting and I've lost 30 pounds in order to get into the military which was actually surprisingly easy when I developed the right methods. I figure if I'm alive and mentally in-tact by the end I'll be able to continue my education, stay in and make a career of it or both. It'll be weird as a 31 year old man entering with mostly teens and twenty-somethings, but whatever.

This is what graduating at the beginning of the great recession looked like for people like me unless they were well connected or lucky. I had the option to go into the military then but I wasn't ready for it. I also did not want to go to Iraq. When I got out it was from a middling-fair school with very little debt as costs for college hadn't skyrocketed yet (most of my debt came from the last year), but there were no jobs in my field and all of my internship opportunities at places I wanted to be went poof. A few years of not being able to get my foot in the door made my degree increasingly ornamental as even make-work jobs were difficult to get back then.

Hoping the military can help me get my life back on track, back into education and onto a path for success.

quote:

I agree with you - I think PJ has the psychology down, but overestimates his influence and ability to actually raise a stink post-election. Especially if Hillary wins by a convincing margin, there's no way Trump incites any violence beyond a very few nuts. Worst he'll do is not concede, maybe demand recounts, and cry foul while everyone laughs at how ridiculous his conspiracies are. It'll help delegitimize Hillary, like the birther movement did Obama, but it won't do much more than that.

There was a good article someone posted in the last iteration of the thread, that noted that while we might not see a real change in the party system or realignment in that sense, we might see a policy realignment as Dems adopt free trade and policies that benefit minorities and wealthy/educated urban city dwellers, while the Republicans persist in the rural areas (south and midwest), fighting between the two for the suburbs and exurbs.

Anyone predicting the demise of the GOP is just wrong. All it takes is one recession, one major fuckup by Hillary or the Dems, or one dogwhistler who can control himself and sell himself as a center-right moderate (like W did) and the Republicans will be back in charge. They've got the house on lockdown until at least 2022, and will probably do well enough in 2020 to maintain their gerrymandered advantage.

I agree in part, but you don't need a ton of people to initiate domestic terrorism. You just need a hard knot of true believers who are armed, crazy and ready to act. There won't be armed insurrections. There probably will be sporadic, armed violence in this scenario. Not organized revolt. Or if it is organized it will be small and around other demagogue types.

I don't think the GOP will die. If that happens poo poo is way worse than any of us anticipated. I do think that the GOP will win in 2020, or come very close. People will remember how loving awful this election was and will run someone with a winning smile and be as boring as possible or the tea party folks will double down on someone Trump-like and it's nutballs all over again, though toned down enough that the suburbs will vote for that person. My bet is on Cruz in that case.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Oct 1, 2016

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
For the first page: Republicans have garbage ideas and are garbage people.

berserker
Aug 17, 2003

My love for you
is ticking clock
This thread title is garbage, we were promised Prester Jane vindication

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich
If you havent already, head on down to GiP where there is plenty of advice and tips to be had.

With your degree I hope you went Officer, if not then keep the end in sight.

E: November better be Prester Jane vindication month.

Goa Tse-tung
Feb 11, 2008

;3

Yams Fan

berserker posted:

This thread title is garbage, we were promised Prester Jane vindication

yeah this title blows

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



berserker posted:

This thread title is garbage, we were promised Prester Jane vindication

Ghetto Prince
Sep 11, 2010

got to be mellow, y'all

Star Man posted:

Things are going to be okay in November.

:shepicide:

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Stereotype posted:

For the first page: Republicans have garbage ideas and are garbage people.
For the sake of the argument I will present the Republican rebuttal:
"You only believe this, because you are a lazy millenial with to much privileges and everyone you hold dear is a pigfucker. Who would trust Stereotype anyway? They are in a porn video. Just search for it! Trump/Pence 2016 it's going to be huge! Like the best. Imagine a big thing and then another big thing and then this is even bigger than that."

Just imagine I'd be posting from a New York time zone.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 09:01 on Oct 1, 2016

vorebane
Feb 2, 2009

"I like Ur and Kavodel and Enki being nice to people for some reason."

Wrong Voter amongst wrong voters
I had my fingers crossed for USPOL Oct: The vindication of Prester Jane by the Corncob Donald Trump, but Trumpelthinskin is nice.

HPanda
Sep 5, 2008

berserker posted:

This thread title is garbage, we were promised Prester Jane vindication

Wait for November. It should be the grand finale.

Sensible Thursday
Jul 28, 2007

Can't wait for Trump to cite the media's response to this as proof of bias.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

JosefStalinator posted:

Anyone predicting the demise of the GOP is just wrong. All it takes is one recession, one major fuckup by Hillary or the Dems, or one dogwhistler who can control himself and sell himself as a center-right moderate (like W did) and the Republicans will be back in charge. They've got the house on lockdown until at least 2022, and will probably do well enough in 2020 to maintain their gerrymandered advantage.

I think this may be a bit too pessimistic mate. It seems more likely that the current crop of Republican voters will continue to vote themselves into obscurity over the next several years. If they remain "do nothings" then eventually the people of the districts will just start trying to throw out weirder and weirder people, until they can't even function as a sub section of a party.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Sensible Thursday posted:

Can't wait for Trump to cite the media's response to this as proof of bias.

Would that make sense? This tweet is quite clearly from her hard working campaign staff. Literally no one had any doubts that Trumps nightly tweets where personally written by him.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010
Repeating a post from the old thread. I hope Trump meltsdown enough that he gets a hand en--bigglying operation soon.

Can't make fun of his tiny hands if they're giant.

e:grammar typos

PhazonLink fucked around with this message at 09:24 on Oct 1, 2016

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


vorebane posted:

I had my fingers crossed for USPOL Oct: The vindication of Prester Jane by the Corncob Donald Trump, but Trumpelthinskin is nice.


HPanda posted:

Wait for November. It should be the grand finale.

That really would be a perfect title to end this shitshow.

Epic High Five posted:

Hillary's social media team are rising rapidly through the ranks and will be a terror for decades to come

I'm kind of skeptical of how well Clinton will do in 2020, but if her social media team continues to improve its trolling game, that'll be a great asset.

Sensible Thursday
Jul 28, 2007

cant cook creole bream posted:

Would that make sense? This tweet is quite clearly from her hard working campaign staff. Literally no one had any doubts that Trumps nightly tweets where personally written by him.

Right, this is why I can't wait for it.

Harik
Sep 9, 2001

From the hard streets of Moscow
First dog to touch the stars


Plaster Town Cop
Huh, I knew about the corncob tweet but I thought that was referencing something itself and not a spontaneous random phrase.

Anything super-critical happen in the last 100 pages of September? I got behind and could never catch up, so I checked the debate coverage and the day after then gave up.

Excited about Zika funding, since I live in the swamps it's currently festering in.

ParliamentOfDogs
Jan 29, 2009

My genre's thriller... What's yours?
I just realized how many people are going to dress up as Donald Trump and carry around a blowup doll labeled Hillary at parties this Halloween.

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

Josef bugman posted:

I think this may be a bit too pessimistic mate. It seems more likely that the current crop of Republican voters will continue to vote themselves into obscurity over the next several years. If they remain "do nothings" then eventually the people of the districts will just start trying to throw out weirder and weirder people, until they can't even function as a sub section of a party.

Why? Republicans have been doing just fine on the congressional level (senate and house) doing nothing and blindly opposing everything the Dems do. Literally no one understands that except people who already won't vote for them ever. All they need is a big shock to the economy/terrorist attack to get moron undecided voters on board, or choose someone who isn't completely insane, and they've got a solid shot at taking the Presidency and keeping their house/senate advantage.

I mean, if Trump can even get close to and maybe even briefly lead or tie Hillary, I see no reason why a Kasich or some other generic "moderate" Republican couldn't pull it off.

Literally Elvis
Oct 21, 2013

ComradeCosmobot posted:

  • USA Today endorsed a candidate (Hillary) for the first time in its history

Actually, they only advocated against Trump

the article posted:

Nor does this editorial represent unqualified support for Hillary Clinton, who has her own flaws (though hers are far less likely to threaten national security or lead to a constitutional crisis). The Editorial Board does not have a consensus for a Clinton endorsement.

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

berserker posted:

This thread title is garbage, we were promised Prester Jane vindication
November will be her true vindication.

boner confessor
Apr 25, 2013

by R. Guyovich
i'm looking forwards to it

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Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
I might just be optimistic, but I'm feeling like Hillary's going to get two terms. I mean, the Republicans might learn their lesson here, but you'd have thought they'd do that in 2012, and instead we got Trump. Their big positions like opposition to gay marriage, drugs, trans people's existence, and abortion are only going to get more unpopular in the meantime, too, particularly with fuckups like McCrory doing their thing and screwing over their states. If they don't ditch the albatross of social conservatism they shouldn't be able to recover any time soon, and with things like Mylan and insulin providers killing people for profit economic conservatism isn't doing too hot either. They need to reform or at least realign, and with the religious right and other social conservatives making up a sizable portion of their base that might not be possible. Also, four years of Hillary, coming after her saving the country from having to exist under Donald Trump, will hopefully show people that she's not that bad, at least compared to the alternative.

And, well, like you say, people will remember this election. They'll remember the racism, the sexism, the hate crimes, the insults aimed at veterans, the gently caress ups, things like Trump's deal with Cuba. And they'll remember that the Republicans endorsed it all, letting it all happen and frequently outright defending it. That should result in a lasting shift for at least some people, I think.

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