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MrChupon posted:China was absolutely mentioned in the context of steel Some of the markets were "does the moderator say it" (as in, is this one of the questions) and some were "do either of the candidates or the moderator say it" (as in, does this come up anyway).
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Oct 10, 2016 04:16
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Somehow my trump shares have jumped like thirteen hundred bucks tonight so I assume the debate went well for him.
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Oct 10, 2016 04:29
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Mention markets paid out.
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Oct 10, 2016 04:41
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EngineerSean posted:Somehow my trump shares have jumped like thirteen hundred bucks tonight so I assume the debate went well for him. He didn't poo poo himself. It was mostly even, with a couple good moments for H and a few flub moments for Donald. But the markets were preparing for a killshot leading up to this, I think. Cards on the table, I've made my biggest PI bet yet on 370.demprez16 *. Half of it I've beem sitting on for ages, but half I made just yesterday, and it looks like I should have waited until after the debate. But I'm still pretty confident. People have become used to super close elections, but landslides of 370 or more aren't that uncommon historically. I figure if it's going to happen in the modern era, this is the one, what with the GOP splitting nearly in half between Trump supporters and not. *my "biggest bet ever" is still under $100. I'm a small player for fun on PI, and you shouldn't take what I say seriously. EDIT: In retrospect, this looks like pumping, and I loathe the idea that goons would pump inour thread instead of the comments of PI itself. Please don't listen to me, I've been bathing in the very liberal SI USPol thread, and am betting on a landslide partly just to justify obsession with the minutiae. The other half of my PI money is in prezparty16.republican.no and equivilant, and that stuff feels like a given to me at this point, so I'm seeling my kicks elsewhere. If you have real money at stake, ignore me. Ditocoaf has issued a correction as of 04:58 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 04:43
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fishmech posted:Hillary definitely mentioned China, while bringing up Trump's illegal Chinese steel deals. Also when talking about GDP growth.
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Oct 10, 2016 04:44
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There arent any cheap no's in this market right now, and its thin, but you all should keep an eye on this one. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2826/Will-Colorado-voters-approve-the-State-Health-Care-System-initiative-in-2016#data No way I can see it passing even in a monster turnout dem landslide. Dems here aren't even united behind it and there is obviously a ton of opposition money coming in to be sure it gets defeated. The proposed tax increase is a monster, and doing this at a state level (at least in a relatively small market) just doesn't seem very feasible.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:20
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Nobody is pumping in this thread, there are only a handful of people here
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Oct 10, 2016 05:25
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Baddog posted:There arent any cheap no's in this market right now, and its thin, but you all should keep an eye on this one. On its busiest day, that market only saw 1400 shares traded, so its probably not a good market for anybody to care much about. I got burned on something similar when throwing money into the Vermont Gubernatorial market, and now I've got money stuck in there instead of having it in one of the more liquid, national categories. I don't doubt that its a good bet, I've just learned that high-volume picks are a lot more convenient. On a side note, I made some money on the 'Will Clinton win the CNN Insta-Poll' category, but I got nervous when it dipped another $.20 towards the end of the debate.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:30
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Ditocoaf posted:EDIT: In retrospect, this looks like pumping, and I loathe the idea that goons would pump inour thread instead of the comments of PI itself. Please don't listen to me, I've been bathing in the very liberal SI USPol thread, and am betting on a landslide partly just to justify obsession with the minutiae. The other half of my PI money is in prezparty16.republican.no and equivilant, You're fine. If you find a good opportunity on there go ahead and mention it. I kind of assume that you are already bought into it and I don't care. If you bought into something because of some weird price fluctuation, underreported news, or some solid reasoning or analysis that when such and such happens then that other event usually follows and you bought into it based on your sincerely held beliefs, then tell me why its a trading opportunity or a long term buy. It also doesn't matter if the passage of time proves you wrong. Its up to me to do my due dilligence, evaluate it based on the current price, and good on you if I move the market in your favor. To me that's not pumping. Plus we are a tiny percentage of PI users To me pumping is something where you know something is crap and you try to push it anyway with slanted info to try to trick me into buying it so you can get out at a better price. I don't think anyone has ever done here that and if they did I believe it would be a bannable offense Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 05:35 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 05:32
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You can still buy Pence.Dropout at 23. Just sayin'.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:34
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Yeah pumping in this thread is dumb because there aren't enough of us to materially influence any but the slimmest markets
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Oct 10, 2016 05:37
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Discospawn posted:now I've got money stuck in there instead of having it in one of the more liquid, national categories. This is very true, dont look to pick up shares in that market that you dont want to hold all the way through the election. I just think its a good way to pick up 10% or more if you are patient with some orders.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:37
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skaboomizzy posted:You can still buy Pence.Dropout at 23. I put in a buy order if it drops to 20. It seems to be fluctuating a lot, and I'm hoping it'll drop again. Unfortunately, a lot of political commentators have made a big deal about Trump's comments about his VP during the debate, so I'm afraid this market may trend way up and stay up overnight. Edit: Keep in mind, dropping a VP candidate is pretty unprecedented unless the VP candidate themselves is discovered to be deeply flawed. Mike Pence MUST have accepted that Trump is a monster when he took the VP slot, and Trump HAS to know how bad it would look to 'fire' his own VP, so there's a lot of logical, rational reasons for this to not happen. But this election... Discospawn has issued a correction as of 05:40 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 05:37
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skaboomizzy posted:You can still buy Pence.Dropout at 23. Or that he doesn't for 77. It might get cheaper first, but he's not going anywhere. He has already made his bed and is smart enough to lie on it. His best case for long term viability is for Trump to lose but put in a respectable result. That would be something like losing 49-43 and getting more than 200 electoral votes. He gets nothing by quitting the ticket last minute, especially after Donald did good enough to stop the free fall tonight.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:46
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Yeah, but Trump shows no sign of not dissing his VP whenever they have a disagreement. I'm in for $9. If he does drop out on Monday then yay. If he doesn't drop out then I'll wait for another flare up and sell once it reaches over 50 cents.
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Oct 10, 2016 05:50
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Or just trade the volatility. Don't laugh at my tiny 
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Oct 10, 2016 05:58
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Of all the bad bets I've seen on PredictIt, Demprez370 getting above 50c today was probably the worst. I mean there have probably objectively been some sub-10c markets that had worse expected value but you can't draw a 370 map that has a 50% chance of happening.
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Oct 10, 2016 06:28
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So pence drop out post debate went well for me tonight. Particularly that last bit  
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Oct 10, 2016 06:41
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Vox Nihili posted:Moderators had to mention it for that market, and they didn't. Clinton and Trump both said China many times. Yup, I won on that one, but woulda stayed far away if it was anybody. The fact some are anyone and some are just moderators/questioners leads to some bad misprices, I feel. People not reading the rules.
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Oct 10, 2016 09:07
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I wonder if we'll end up with any pants-on-fires from last night. I figured with two debates this month there was a pretty good chance of 5+ for October.
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Oct 10, 2016 14:46
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EngineerSean posted:Of all the bad bets I've seen on PredictIt, Demprez370 getting above 50c today was probably the worst. I mean there have probably objectively been some sub-10c markets that had worse expected value but you can't draw a 370 map that has a 50% chance of happening. That's a real safe NO bet imo. I find it hard to believe they'd break 370 even if the GOP and Trump entered and all out civil war
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Oct 10, 2016 15:05
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Fitzy Fitz posted:I wonder if we'll end up with any pants-on-fires from last night. I figured with two debates this month there was a pretty good chance of 5+ for October. Ask about the sex tape is already up
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Oct 10, 2016 16:26
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There are some pretty silly prices on conservative states at the moment. Texas has a 15% chance of not going Republican? South Carolina has a 25% chance of going for Hilary? These are close to fivethirtyeight.com's percentages, sure, but they don't really jive with my understanding of the actual population of these states, and it seems like an overcorrection in response to Trump's bad weekend. I cashed out of some of my safe Democratic states (e.g. Maine, New Mexico, etc.) that were up in the 90's and put money into these safe Republican ones for a little better return.
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Oct 10, 2016 19:21
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Discospawn posted:There are some pretty silly prices on conservative states at the moment. Texas has a 15% chance of not going Republican? South Carolina has a 25% chance of going for Hilary? These are close to fivethirtyeight.com's percentages, sure, but they don't really jive with my understanding of the actual population of these states, and it seems like an overcorrection in response to Trump's bad weekend. Yeah, I think we are in peak overreaction right now. Still a month to go, polls will probably smooth out a bit before then. There have been rumblings about additional oppo-bombs in the Clinton camp, though.
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Oct 10, 2016 19:30
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Texas, SC, MO, IN were all more D on friday/saturday. Texas hit 25, SC 30. I don't think the current prices are super far fetched if you believe the trump downward spiral will continue, these are the next states after GA and AZ.
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Oct 10, 2016 19:53
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The prices are an overreaction to Trump in a vacuum but reasonable if you assume the GOP civil war will continue to progress. Really all depends on how Reibus / Ryan / Trump handle the coming week or two.
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Oct 10, 2016 19:57
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there is this incredibly frustrating cold war element at play right now between the two campaigns and the potential volatility should be exciting for people looking to ride the waves but lord almighty I feel like state forecasting is reaching "don't bet on polls" levels of shakiness
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Oct 10, 2016 19:57
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Necc0 posted:The prices are an overreaction to Trump in a vacuum but reasonable if you assume the GOP civil war will continue to progress. Really all depends on how Reibus / Ryan / Trump handle the coming week or two. agree with this basically. And it seems like the chances of the civil war progressing is probably in the 10-20% range at least at this point.
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Oct 10, 2016 19:59
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Trump has a rally today where he's probably going to talk poo poo about Paul Ryan in no uncertain terms. The Civil War is real and it's going to put some (probably not Texas) red states in play.
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Oct 10, 2016 20:11
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If Georgia flips, dems have almost certainly also taken arizona and iowa, reaching 370. FiveThirtyEight has Georgia at 31%, and that's not including any polling from post-pussygrab and all the rescinded nominations that went along with it, etc. Elections have been unusually close and stable for the last few decades -- I think extreme electoral-vote landslides are more possible than people think these days. That's all to say that if you think the oppo dumps and republican splitting will continue (and I do), 40c for 370.demprez16 isn't unreasonable. The 50c peak it hit right before the debate is probably too much. Anyway, that's where my change is parked, just to make this election as gut-wrenching as possible.
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Oct 10, 2016 20:25
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Ditocoaf posted:If Georgia flips, dems have almost certainly also taken arizona and iowa, reaching 370. FiveThirtyEight has Georgia at 31%, and that's not including any polling from post-pussygrab and all the rescinded nominations that went along with it, etc. Elections have been unusually close and stable for the last few decades -- I think extreme electoral-vote landslides are more possible than people think these days. Hey, here's a quick trick for you. If you think that 40 is a reasonable cost for Demprez.370, but also realize that she'll need Georgia to get there and the cost of Georgia is less, buy Georgia instead. Instead of taking what is essentially a four- or five-state parlay with somewhat dependent odds on each other, split your money and buy all four or five states separately as a hedge.
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Oct 10, 2016 20:31
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EngineerSean posted:Hey, here's a quick trick for you. If you think that 40 is a reasonable cost for Demprez.370, but also realize that she'll need Georgia to get there and the cost of Georgia is less, buy Georgia instead. Instead of taking what is essentially a four- or five-state parlay with somewhat dependent odds on each other, split your money and buy all four or five states separately as a hedge. Is Georgia less than dem370? That's hilarious. It wasn't back when I bought in, but yeah, I suppose I should keep checking and dump one for the other if it gets significantly out of whack that way. As to the other thing, I'm playing with such small amounts of money, the advantage I'd get from hedging with a few shares each in a bunch of states literally isn't worth the hassle. I'm playing with bar bet money, not hot-weekend-in-vegas money.
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Oct 10, 2016 20:40
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there is one unlikely but at least plausible path to 370 without georgia, all the rest + Indiana and one NE cd. Essentially 2008 + Arizona. I don't think this will happen, but there has been some close polling in Indiana.
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Oct 10, 2016 20:44
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Like I'm not sure why I'm bothering but here is the Dem best-case-scenario situation. Safe Dem is blue, safe Rep is red, so we need 22 electors from these states marked gray. Texas will win it outright but is also the least likely. If not Teaxs, you either need Georgia + another state (that's not Alaska) or a three-state parlay of Arizona, Missouri, and either Alaska or South Carolina to get to 370. In all three cases (Texas, Georgia + something else, and AZ + MO + SC/AK), there is an individual state that you can buy for less than the price of Demprez370. Buying Demprez370 covers you under all three scenarios but also has very little flexibility for one of those safe Dem states flipping (Even 6 elector Iowa will gently caress up the Georgia + one other state scenario).
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Oct 10, 2016 20:57
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G-Hawk posted:there is one unlikely but at least plausible path to 370 without georgia, all the rest + Indiana and one NE cd. Essentially 2008 + Arizona. I don't think this will happen, but there has been some close polling in Indiana. I'm not sure if this is a joke but if we take all states as close as Indiana as swing states, then a Trump win is more likely than a 370 elector finish for the Dems.
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Oct 10, 2016 20:59
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And here I thought post-primary PredictIt was gonna be boring and predictable 
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Oct 10, 2016 20:59
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Here's our map if we consider states within 7.5 points a month before the election a swing state. I think I actually was wrong and a 370 elector finish is more likely than a Trump win.
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Oct 10, 2016 21:07
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EngineerSean posted:I'm not sure if this is a joke but if we take all states as close as Indiana as swing states, then a Trump win is more likely than a 370 elector finish for the Dems. most recent poll was +5 trump and rumored tied private poll. I don't think shes going to win indiana unless this opens up more, and yes actually i think an 370+ win with indiana and not georgia is probably lower chance than trump winning, but it is an actual path to 370 without georgia that exists Edit: That map is a pretty good interpretation of the broadest range of possibilities barring a historic melt down. Most of that map can be predicted with 80%+ confidence right now, but the uncertainty has increased imo given more potential trump revelations, potential gop infighting, and trump's campaign escalating attacks against Clinton. G-Hawk has issued a correction as of 21:17 on Oct 10, 2016 |
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Oct 10, 2016 21:10
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Concerned Citizen posted:I actually am considering getting on the other side of that. There's a fairly strong chance that Trump talks about it in generalities rather than uses specific names. I ended up not betting on Says A Thing 
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Oct 10, 2016 21:28
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| # ? May 29, 2024 16:35 |
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I think this graphic from 538 sums it up with regards to DEM370 and agrees with the discussion above: Clinton getting 370+ is more likely than a Trump victory, but still abnormal based on current polling. I think there's a lot of fear that this Trump campaign may cause split-ticket voting or will somehow break through the partisanship of modern politics. I think the fear is overrated, but definitely understandable. Unlike previous elections, you need to factor in a lot more crazy possibilities like Trump getting bored and leaving the ticket, or getting caught calling people from Idaho 'faggots,' or slapping Mike Pence in public.
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Oct 10, 2016 21:31
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