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How many states will legalize Cannabis in the 2016 election?
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Dmitri-9
Nov 30, 2004

There's something really sexy about Scrooge McDuck. I love Uncle Scrooge.
Drug companies are trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted

https://www.leafly.com/news/politics/fentanyl-maker-insys-running-cbd-clinical-trials

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TapTheForwardAssist
Apr 9, 2007

Pretty Little Lyres

Powercrazy posted:

Which the president can do unilaterally and yet...
I was hoping to find a state-by-state breakdown of marijuana polling, and NORML is on the job: http://norml.org/library/state-polls-legalization


Here are the states *other* than the ones voting to legalize in November, that have polled majorities in favor of legal weed:

- Maryland 63%
- New Hampshire 61%
- Rhode Island 55%
- Pennsylavian 57%
- Ohio 52%
- Florida 56%
- Michigan 53%
- Vermont 56%
- New Jersey 58%
- Virginia 54%
- Connecticut 63%
- Delaware 56%
- New York 57%
- Hawaii 66%
- Georgia 54%
- Indiana 52%
- Texas 58%
- New Mexico 52%
- Louisiana 53%

Now this is from NORML, and it's a mish-mash of various pollsters and methodologies, but all these are at least "legal possession of small amounts by adults", so full-legal vice decrim, and some phrased explicitly as "treated like alcohol".

That said, if we get the full monty in November, that's nine states and DC legal, and 19 on this list above. The question just becomes which states are easiest/quickest/cheapest to push through, and what interested parties see what degree of profit in it. Then it just becomes a matter of when the Feds break down and just accept that a significant portion of the country wants legal weed. Even just five years ago folks thought we'd not see a single legal state in our lifetime, and here we are.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Only 9/50 states, but probably way more than 18% of the population. I'm guessing 25-30%.

unrelated, but looking at the numbers, Arizona has exactly as many people in it as Massachusetts, a historical mindfuck

i say swears online has issued a correction as of 04:50 on Oct 12, 2016

TapTheForwardAssist
Apr 9, 2007

Pretty Little Lyres

Aliquid posted:

unrelated, but looking at the numbers, Arizona has exactly as many people in it as Massachusetts, a historical mindfuck

http://www.theonion.com/article/pretty-cute-watching-boston-residents-play-daily-g-31554

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


oh my god

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

EX250 Type R posted:

saw my first Maine No on 1 signs.... in front of a local pot dealers house and a local head shop.... it is a mystery

Probably like their profit margins the way they are

TapTheForwardAssist
Apr 9, 2007

Pretty Little Lyres

The Glumslinger posted:

Probably like their profit margins the way they are

And/or concern that MPP-initiated legislation out of DC won't take Maine's "unique culture" into account.

Which I refuse to interpret as anything other than "pot shops should be cute Victorian seaside bungalows run by a cantankerous white-haired old man who says things like 'lobstah' and sells THC-laced stick candy and saltwater taffy."

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Yeah, there's been a pushback by even medical users in New England because of the bills being "too business friendly" and it's been taking me forever to convince people that just getting the foot in the door is more important.

Series DD Funding
Nov 25, 2014

by exmarx
i read the ma initiative and it seems fine, what problems do people have with it

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

literally "but corporations and profit, maaan"

any legalization that allows home-growing is pretty much a best-case scenario

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

i think it was the ohio intiative which was basically written by 3 or 4 big farms to benefit themselves. MA as far as I know doesn't follow that pattern

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


I think the worry is that MA is puritanical af with alcohol/liquor licenses, so following that pattern would restrict access a bit wrt storefronts, cost, fines, etc.

Still hella dumb

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

yeah i'm wary of this commission it creates, it's allowed to pretty much set all the rules. i guess we'll find out in a month

one thing i haven't been able to find is who appoints the commission. baker is governor right now, so that's not so great if it's him. the legislature is slow as poo poo and isn't much better.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


State treasurer, in this case: Deborah Goldberg

Dmitri-9
Nov 30, 2004

There's something really sexy about Scrooge McDuck. I love Uncle Scrooge.

TapTheForwardAssist posted:

And/or concern that MPP-initiated legislation out of DC won't take Maine's "unique culture" into account.

Which I refuse to interpret as anything other than "pot shops should be cute Victorian seaside bungalows run by a cantankerous white-haired old man who says things like 'lobstah' and sells THC-laced stick candy and saltwater taffy."

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

I think the worry is that MA is puritanical af with alcohol/liquor licenses, so following that pattern would restrict access a bit wrt storefronts, cost, fines, etc.

Still hella dumb

Yeah, Washington hosed up because of their strict liquor laws, too.

Proposition Joe
Oct 8, 2010

He was a good man

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

State treasurer, in this case: Deborah Goldberg

Deborah Goldberg is aggressively anti-weed and said that she will raise the tax from 3% to 30% and that it would take her office at least a year or so to implement legalization.

Marijuana will be legalized in Massachusetts but the state government does not want it at all, and I'm hoping that there will be enough popular or municipal pressure to make sure that marijuana legalization actually happens in practice.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


given that the law has safeguards against that sort of behavior baked in ( :downsrim: ), it'll start no later than Jan 1 2018

da law posted:

SECTION 6. Notwithstanding any general or special law to the contrary, if the cannabis
control commission fails to adopt regulations necessary
for the implementation of this
chapter on or before January 1, 2018, each medical marijuana treatment center may begin
to possess, cultivate, process, manufacture, package, purchase or otherwise obtain and test
marijuana and marijuana products and may deliver, sell or otherwise transfer marijuana to
any person who is at least 21 years of age until the commission adopts the regulations
necessary for implementation of this chapter and begins to issue licenses to operate
marijuana establishments pursuant to section 5 of this chapter.

ate shit on live tv
Feb 15, 2004

by Azathoth
The regressive left strikes again.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

if you read this globe article, you will come away feeling like question 4 will definitely not pass lol

quote:

As the debate wears on, panelists become increasingly aggressive. Carmichael describes, in vivid detail, walking in on a heroin overdose and finding a bong.

quote:

Maybe this new approach to cannabis reform will work — but maybe not. Massachusetts legalizers are facing the most organized and powerful cannabis opposition in the country, not to mention divisions within their own pro-marijuana ranks. What’s more, some say the Question 4 campaign’s responses to these challenges have at times made matters worse.

the only polling they mention in the entire article:

quote:

The legalization campaign, which had until then enjoyed a year of favorable polling, took a big hit almost immediately. In April, one poll had voters supporting legalization by a 57 to 35 percent margin. But a month later, a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll reported respondents opposing it 46 to 43 percent. Two months later, the opposition’s lead grew even wider: 51 to 41 percent.

it's so transparent

https://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2016/10/18/why-marijuana-opposition-effective-liberal-mass/QAN3Chb4AxpXCQKFKJ1M5M/story.html

Karl Barks has issued a correction as of 21:38 on Oct 18, 2016

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


/\/\/\

Powercrazy posted:

The regressive left strikes again.

fat bossy gerbil
Jul 1, 2007

That link gives a page not found error.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

fat bossy gerbil posted:

That link gives a page not found error.

fixed

fat bossy gerbil
Jul 1, 2007

The Boston Globe posted:

Last summer, MassCann officially endorsed a competing ballot initiative, spearheaded by the organization’s cofounder, Steve Epstein, that would have legalized the possession, sale, and cultivation of marijuana without the specially regulated system of grow houses, testing labs, and retailers required by Question 4. When that initiative failed to garner enough signatures, many MassCann members endorsed Question 4 — but not Epstein. “I don’t call it a legalization movement,” he says. “I call it a crony capitalism and new bureaucracy movement.”
There were lots of turds like this getting all fussy in Colorado back in 2012 before 64 passed. They all immediately shut the gently caress up the first time they set foot in a pot shop.

It looks like MA will be close but then again who knows, the article was quite vague about what polls it references and who actually did them.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

All recent polling shows it passing with fairly wide margins, I assume Trump fallout will make it even easier. It is funny seeing globe attempt to maintain impartiality while clearly favoring one side tho

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Karl Barks posted:

All recent polling shows it passing with fairly wide margins, I assume Trump fallout will make it even easier. It is funny seeing globe attempt to maintain impartiality while clearly favoring one side tho

the democrats here aren't as liberal as you might think.

Gotta say though, lmfao at the anti-question 4 ad coming thurs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjtmo2M3Exw

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

"marijuana operators" lol

yeah, MA is basically a one party system so my expectations are low for politics here. it's a bunch of careerists like leland cheung (thank god he lost)

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

yeah as just noted, any one-party state will have a ton of [out-party] in [in-party]'s clothing

it'll be interesting to see how turnout affects this stuff in the places where it's close. hopes of arizona going blue mostly turn on latino turnout, and i don't know what the demographic splits are like in that state's polling but i remember seeing that latinos were a bit less pro-legalization than whites in california polling cross-tabs. on the other hand all of these turnout scenarios also involve right-wing white people pouting and staying home, so maybe that more than counterbalances any other effects

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Gap in MA widens to 55-40

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

haha and the charter school prop is going down in flames, at least MA voters are more sane then our legislature

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Crosstabs for whole poll, if anyone is interested

(topline)

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

i'm the 21% of people over 60 who are bothered by people smoking marijuana in their homes

Karl Barks has issued a correction as of 19:06 on Oct 19, 2016

TapTheForwardAssist
Apr 9, 2007

Pretty Little Lyres
For the channels covering presidential election results live on Election Day, do they tend to also mention results on state initiatives of interest like these? Like if I'm watching a mainstream news channel that night are they likely to mention how the weed initiatives are progressing in the polls?

I'll also have fun checking the Twitter of noted fellow Kevin Sabet, one of the main go-to anti-weed pundits nationally. Mostly to see what he *doesn't* say. In 2014 on the day after AL, OR, and DC legalized, the focus of Sabet's twitter was the news that some suburban village of 3,000 people in Colorado had voted to ban weed shops.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

TapTheForwardAssist posted:

For the channels covering presidential election results live on Election Day, do they tend to also mention results on state initiatives of interest like these? Like if I'm watching a mainstream news channel that night are they likely to mention how the weed initiatives are progressing in the polls?

I'll also have fun checking the Twitter of noted fellow Kevin Sabet, one of the main go-to anti-weed pundits nationally. Mostly to see what he *doesn't* say. In 2014 on the day after AL, OR, and DC legalized, the focus of Sabet's twitter was the news that some suburban village of 3,000 people in Colorado had voted to ban weed shops.

I think in 2014 they did but it's a lot less high profile there.

glowing-fish
Feb 18, 2013

Keep grinding,
I hope you level up! :)

Karl Barks posted:

All recent polling shows it passing with fairly wide margins, I assume Trump fallout will make it even easier. It is funny seeing globe attempt to maintain impartiality while clearly favoring one side tho

How the Trump meltdown effects down-ballot races is one of the big questions of this election.

I tend to think it won't make any difference, although it perhaps will at the margins. Like, of states with a close cannabis election, how many Donald Trump supporters are going to not vote because his campaign looks like it is going to lose anyway? And of those, how many were going to be against cannabis in the first place? Because Trump supporters are not all old, traditional anti-drug people.

So I don't think it will make that much of a difference, but in a place like Arizona, who knows?

Ace of Baes
Jul 7, 1977
Trump supporters are old people, the vocal younger Trump supporters do not represent the demographic support he has overall, I don't know if low turnout from Republicans will has an effect on weed initiatives but if it does itll be a positive. (For legalization)

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

the demos from that poll posted above show trump supporters breaking towards no, so I would imagine it will help.

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!

Awesome, I thought this was going to be a total tossup or lean no so this is very encouraging.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


MaxxBot posted:

Awesome, I thought this was going to be a total tossup or lean no so this is very encouraging.

We'll see. Signs are encouraging, but issue polling here tends to have a big delta when ask is said and done. That shift was in favor of weed last time, so who knows.

Just hope the 65+ crowd stays home

e. poo poo, 68% of residents approve of Baker? Respect. Gone. Forever.

GonadTheBallbarian has issued a correction as of 22:40 on Oct 19, 2016

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Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar
Noted awful person and billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson shat out $2,000,000 to fight Nevada's recreational marijuana bill

quote:

Financial disclosures due Tuesday showed the Las Vegas Sands casino owner is the biggest donor to the Protect Nevada's Children PAC ...

That group is fighting Question 2, a statewide ballot measure.

... He is a major contributor to anti-marijuana efforts. He recently donated $1 million to oppose recreational marijuana in Massachusetts.

I guess just buying the city's paper wasn't enough.

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