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Raenir Salazar posted:Is it remotely possible for the Dems to gain 30~ seats in the House? If Trump is seriously losing by upwards of 10 points on election night and spends these next few weeks telling his followers to not vote for GOP establishment/downticket people on top of that then yeah the House is possibly in play if there's actually enough otherwise vulnerable districts that are even bothering to run a Dem opponent. Instant Sunrise posted:something the court has hinted that they'd really like to take a case about And they have! http://www.fairvote.org/supreme_court_takes_up_two_gerrymandering_cases_oct2016 I'm not sure if all 4 liberal justices are on the "ban this poo poo" train or if Garland is but if Clinton actually gets to appoint Scalia's replacement and "court case that would outlaw Gerrymandering" is in the docket she's probably going to look for her CU-killing pick to also be on board with that since she knows full well that Gerrymandering helps the GOP more than the Dems. Gerrymandering will probably only ever die in the courts because too many Congressmen would see the shakeup as a risk to their own position. Hollismason posted:I would have voted for Kasich maybe. John Kasich is Scott Walker only with better taste in football and he's actually capable of hiding his horrific political views to look moderate. Like Pence only a bit better at it. IIRC he also whitesplained during a racial argument at Sto-Rox when he was a kid back in the 60s. Goatman Sacks posted:Trump''s business MO has always been to use his money to screw people by tying them up in litigation, hell his mentor was Roy Cohn. He's dealing with the sex scandals the same way he does everything else - legal bullying The NYT is quite possibly the worst possible target in the world to go after for this. The only way this could get better is if Peter Thiel gets dragged in to it and ruined somehow as well.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:11
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GalacticAcid posted:I know everyone is excited about Clinton dunking on Trump but I'll be sweating bullets on Election Night to watch the Senate races, in large part for this reason. yeah the senate and congress the real question at this point. although I brought up the supreme court in regards to gerrymandering and racial packing because they're actually hearing a pair of very similar cases about it this term, one from virginia and the other from north carolina
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Oct 13, 2016 06:12
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I liked Kasich taking a stand on Medicaid and his executive order regarding discrimination in State government against LGBT and gender identity. It impresses me more when someone goes against the flow I guess. Yes, I am aware of his political stances.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:12
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Furnaceface posted:Got any links on what gerrymandering is and how it has affected the US? Im a dirty Canadian so its something we very rarely see happening. North Carolina's congressional districts are probably the worst offender. Look at the weirdly shaped ones that go all over the state to pack in as many democrats as possible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_congressional_districts
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Oct 13, 2016 06:13
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Evil Fluffy posted:If Trump is seriously losing by upwards of 10 points on election night and spends these next few weeks telling his followers to not vote for GOP establishment/downticket people on top of that then yeah the House is possibly in play if there's actually enough otherwise vulnerable districts that are even bothering to run a Dem opponent. There have also been successful referendums mandating that neutral commissions draw the district lines in a couple of states.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:13
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gfsincere posted:I wouldn't be surprised if there's audio of Trump toying with the idea of going to Africa and hunting black people. If not trump, Don Jr. without a doubt.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:14
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I can't even imagine being a teacher trying to teach this stuff in a couple of years. Like, some US II classes get as far as Watergate and how was considered the biggest political scandal of its day. I feel that the kids won't even care! like Watergate seems like small potatoes compared to the Trumpenberg explosion
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Oct 13, 2016 06:14
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1-800-DOCTORB posted:North Carolina's congressional districts are probably the worst offender. Look at the weirdly shaped ones that go all over the state to pack in as many democrats as possible. That was actually really helpful. Terrifying, but helpful! e GalacticAcid posted:There have also been successful referendums mandating that neutral commissions draw the district lines in a couple of states. This is how its done in Canada. Seems to work pretty well most of the time, but FPTP is a lovely system and makes redrawing or creating new ridings something that can take years to approve. Furnaceface fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Oct 13, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2016 06:15
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Carlosologist posted:I can't even imagine being a teacher trying to teach this stuff in a couple of years. Like, some US II classes get as far as Watergate and how was considered the biggest political scandal of its day. I feel that the kids won't even care! like Watergate seems like small potatoes compared to the Trumpenberg explosion Well. Unlike trump, Nixon was actually president.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:15
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Carlosologist posted:I can't even imagine being a teacher trying to teach this stuff in a couple of years. Like, some US II classes get as far as Watergate and how was considered the biggest political scandal of its day. I feel that the kids won't even care! like Watergate seems like small potatoes compared to the Trumpenberg explosion My brother is a 5th grade teacher and his school canceled their mock election.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:16
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Furnaceface posted:That was actually really helpful. Terrifying, but helpful! Also Illinois's "earmuff" district: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois%27s_4th_congressional_district
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Oct 13, 2016 06:16
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GalacticAcid posted:There have also been successful referendums mandating that neutral commissions draw the district lines in a couple of states. I live in one of those states and voted for that! Now our state's GOP is basically dead.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:16
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Carlosologist posted:I can't even imagine being a teacher trying to teach this stuff in a couple of years. Like, some US II classes get as far as Watergate and how was considered the biggest political scandal of its day. I feel that the kids won't even care! like Watergate seems like small potatoes compared to the Trumpenberg explosion Watergate and Iran-Contra are the two worst political scandals in American history and probably always will be. Watergate was a sitting President using explicitly illegal henchmen to undermine his political opponents and secure his reelection and Iran-Contra was literal treason.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:17
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Carlosologist posted:I can't even imagine being a teacher trying to teach this stuff in a couple of years. Like, some US II classes get as far as Watergate and how was considered the biggest political scandal of its day. I feel that the kids won't even care! like Watergate seems like small potatoes compared to the Trumpenberg explosion If I ever see Igrab Cuntra in a text book I will beg aliens to just pick me up and drop me into the nearest neutron star.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:17
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This election has become totally ridiculous. The first female presidential candidate versus the first male repeat sex offender candidate. Actually, I bet some of those 18th and 19th century presidents did equally as bad things as Trump though 'twas probably considered good sport in those days.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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Hollismason posted:I liked Kasich taking a stand on Medicaid and his executive order regarding discrimination in State government against LGBT and gender identity. It impresses me more when someone goes against the flow I guess. He's heavily anti choice for starters.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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Catching up on a million pages, but had to skip ahead and post this: https://twitter.com/NYCAviation/status/786418297822588929 quote:Hi @KatrinaPierson, the aircraft types you mentioned all did operate into New York City.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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Lightning Knight posted:I hope Hillary's campaign is willing to fight for these women and their inevitable legal battles with Trump. I'm going to be very mad if they don't go up to bat for these women after they come forward. He's loathed by huge swaths of the nation, they'll be OK because they'll probably get some nice bro bono representation and support from various Democratic organizations.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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1-800-DOCTORB posted:Also Illinois's "earmuff" district: Isn't that one to create a minority majority district though?
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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I think I'm going to get a Trump voodoo doll and commit various wrongs and injuries to it - some physical, some social - and see what comes to pass. Seems healthier than sending death threats and who knows, something might work at this rate.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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Tom Guycot posted:My brother is a 5th grade teacher and his school canceled their mock election. Oh man, how did they explain why?
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Oct 13, 2016 06:18
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Oh man, how did they explain why? Probably had to use a PSA by Chris Hanson to do it.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:19
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Actually, I bet some of those 18th and 19th century presidents did equally as bad things as Trump though 'twas probably considered good sport in those days. 
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Oct 13, 2016 06:20
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Gyges posted:He's loathed by huge swaths of the nation, they'll be OK because they'll probably get some nice bro bono representation and support from various Democratic organizations. I imagine it was a typo, but imo "bro bono" is a better term for that.  I guess we gotta include the lady lawyers tho. Darn.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:20
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gfsincere posted:HEY GUYS REMEMBER WHEN THE WORST THING TRUMP SAID WAS MEXICANS WERE RAPISTS AND MEGAN KELLY HAS BLOOD COMING OUT OF HER WHATEVER AND WE ALL LAUGHED AND LAUGHED AND THOUGHT HE WAS A JOKE CANDIDATE?
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Oct 13, 2016 06:21
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A Winner is Jew posted:Isn't that one to create a minority majority district though? yeah, that's how gerrymandering works. put all the people who wont vote for you into one or two districts, and then try to keep the rest of the districts 60/40 vote for you/don't vote for you
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Oct 13, 2016 06:21
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Gyges posted:He's loathed by huge swaths of the nation, they'll be OK because they'll probably get some nice bro bono representation and support from various Democratic organizations. Pro typo there. It definitely made this post great.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:22
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Tom Guycot posted:My brother is a 5th grade teacher and his school canceled their mock election. That's actually the saddest thing I've heard so far tonight.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:22
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boner confessor posted:yeah, that's how gerrymandering works. put all the people who wont vote for you into one or two districts, and then try to keep the rest of the districts 60/40 vote for you/don't vote for you http://wapo.st/1XLi1hT There was even a video game to demonstrate it at one point.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:23
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Pages back at this point, but whatever. At this point, after all she's had to endure, Katy Tur should walk on camera on the NBC/MSNBC election night feed the precise moment the race is called and just douse Lester Holt, Brian Williams, Rachel Maddow, and Chris Matthews in a comically oversized celebratory campaign bottle. Just spay that fucker everywhere, drop it at their feet and walk off into the night, preferably flipping off the camera on the way out. Same goes to Sopan Deb at CBS.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:23
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:This election has become totally ridiculous. The first female presidential candidate versus the first male repeat sex offender candidate. Actually, I bet some of those 18th and 19th century presidents did equally as bad things as Trump though 'twas probably considered good sport in those days. I think Cleveland was actually the worst. He raped a woman and when she reported it he used his connections in NY State government to have her involuntarily committed to a mental institution.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:23
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I asked this the other day re: gerrymandering and off-year losses, but if we had the political power to amend the Constituion, would we be better off if Representstives were elected at the State level and all elections were on the same four-six year cycle?
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Oct 13, 2016 06:23
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Re House chat House election projection is tough. Polling is limited. Gerrymandering increases the difficulty because it ensures you have a skewed population. Most +6/+8/+10/+* numbers you see are as assumption-laden as your physics class's Spherical Elephant. Assuming the demographicsdemographics haven't shifted, assuming relative turnout if groups remains the same, assuming there are no shifts in voting behavior... like the two examples I post compulsively: Hispanic voters, and suburban white women. In case any need a refresh on gerrymandering: The objective of Gerrymandering is to get as many reps with as few votes as possible (Michigan 2012). Side goals can be things like diluting minority voting power by splitting up Latino voters into different districts (TX always). As 30% of two districts, they're a powerhouse. As 10% of 6 districts? An afterthought. Based on 2008/2012 turnout and dynamics, Dems need a +8-+10 advantage to take the house. But if the diluted Latino voters spike their participation (there are some indications they are), that number shrinks. If reliably conservative white women tell the party to gently caress off and vote Hillary without splitting their ticket, that number shrinks more. Or it could not matter. But I think there's a chance of it happening as low as +3 or +4. All depends on who and where those +3/+4 are.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:23
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boner confessor posted:yeah, that's how gerrymandering works. put all the people who wont vote for you into one or two districts, and then try to keep the rest of the districts 60/40 vote for you/don't vote for you All of the surrounding districts (the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th) are also Democratic.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:24
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JohnCompany posted:So to sum up today, Donald Trump: That Cheeto Sky prediction is looking disturbingly plausible. Are we doomed?
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Oct 13, 2016 06:24
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Seriously, the internets might not be big enough to absorb all of tonight's fuel for a holy Trumpsterfire. If we're good though, we might be able to squeeze a a few more characters in. But only if we sacrifice more keystorkes to the Sacred Cheetoman. Since it is late, let us hold dusty hands and pray together: Tweet, Trump, Tweet!
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Oct 13, 2016 06:25
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Okay so here’s an effortpost about Mormonism. If you’re tired of Mormon chat scroll away, hopefully this is interesting to at least someone. To start, I know there’s a lot of different opinions re: Mormonism and its value to society. I’m not interested in discussing that but feel free if you want. To provide a little background. I’m an active Mormon. I do not live in Utah, so I can’t provide too much insight into local politics there, but I do have a lot of friends from there. I grew up in a progressive state and have always considered myself liberal. Registered democrat, voted for Sen. Sanders in the primary but am firmly With Her. I want to talk a little bit about the different perspectives I’ve seen in my LDS friends and relatives regarding the election, and my theories for why LDS are doing what they’re doing this year. As with any largish group there are a diversity of opinions in Mormondom. I’ve noticed a few broad groups of similarly-thinking people, across the political spectrum, and I’ll discuss each briefly. This list is by no means exhaustive. Progressive Mormons There’s a small but growing group of LDS who are politically and socially liberal. Common views among this group include a disbelief in the prosperity gospel, belief that homosexuality and marriage equality are not sins, and concerns for social justice issues in the US and elsewhere. This obviously makes their position on 2016 pretty clear—regardless of Trump’s moral failings, they believe that the Republican Party platform is inherently immoral and would vote D pretty much no matter what. From what I can tell, people in this group tended to vote Clinton in the primary, but I’m not 100% sure. Here are a few short essays from a progressive Mormon group blog, regarding Clinton and Trump: https://bycommonconsent.com/2016/10/11/why-im-voting-for-hillary-clinton/ https://bycommonconsent.com/2016/08/23/how-mormons-could-matter-the-machiavellian-case-for-dumping-trump/ My 50-year-old Mormon Mother posted:Honestly tho any vote not for Hillary is just stupid imho Orthodox Millenial-to-Middle Age This is probably the group that I have the most contact with, because that’s my demographic. This is the relatively small group of young Mormon adults who stay active in the church (about 25% of young Mormons generally). They tend to be quite culturally conservative, and tend to limit exposure to different points of view by a) attending BYU and b) marrying early. This group tends (and this is again a vast generalization) to be of the “both sides equally bad” camp. Of my Mormon Facebook friends that fall in this group, they’re split pretty much 50/50 between Johnson and McMullin. Interestingly, I’ve seen the same people post stuff favoring both McMullin and Johnson, which suggests to me that they don’t particularly care about policy, just having someone other than Trump. This is the position represented by the recent Deseret News editorial condemning Trump—they dislike Trump, but can’t imagine voting for a Democrat. Here’s a representative quote image posted by one of these guys. The guy quoted was President of the Church in the 80s—before that he was Reagan’s secretary of Agriculture. [img] https://scontent-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...787&oe=586569A2[/img] Boomers and other reluctant Trumpists This is basically older, orthodox Mormons who’re largely racist, sexist, homophobic, and islamophobic. Even they don’t tend to like Trump very much, because he’s rude, but will likely be voting for him in November. They tend to care mostly about ARE GUNS and taxes, and believe everything people tell them about the evils of Hillary Clinton. They recognize that Trump is morally corrupt, but are so scared of the pluralism they think Clinton will usher in that they’re willing to vote R anyways. Here’s a longish diatribe (sorry) that one of these guys shared via Facebook. A Mormon’s justification for voting trump: Old Racist Lady posted:I have seen so many of my religious Mormon friends and a few but not so many of my non denominational Christian friends talk of the need to "FEEL" good about their vote. In essence they are not voting Trump because they are "VOTING THEIR CONSCIENCE". Which through my observation seems to mean 1- writing someone in, 2-voting a 3rd party, or 3-not voting at the top of the ticket but voting for state and local offices...and I say, to each his own. But here's my take on VOTING MY CONSCIENCE POC Yes, there are nonwhite Mormons. There are not many, and I'm not one, so I can't say too much about this group, but I’m acquainted with some latin@ LDS, having served with many as a Mormon missionary. They hate trump and have hated him from the beginning. The political conservativism that is so central to white Mormonism is pretty much completely absent with them. Even among older people, I consistently see them posting pro-Obama and Clinton images. Pretty dope video shared by a 60ish-year-old devout Mormon (this is a pretty pro-click, and doesn’t have anything to do with Mormonism): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9cg6upPESE So anyways, those are the major LDS “voting blocs” that I’m familiar with. As a final note, I’ve noticed a lot of hypothesizing regarding why it is that white Mormons are leaning away from Trump this election. A lot of people think that it’s because we’re a religious minority ourselves, or that going on foreign missions makes us more empathetic to immigrants. This might be true (and the church as an organization explicitly condemned many of Trump’s immigration policies and has called for Mormons to do more to help refugees), but I don’t buy that it’s the only reason. I could be very wrong, and I don’t speak for all Mormons, but I think it really just has to do with Trump’s tone. Mormons are taught from a young age that being directly confrontational and getting angry in arguments is wrong. 3 Nephi 11:29, in the Book of Mormon, says “For verily, verily I say unto you, he that hath the spirit of acontention is not of me, but is of the bdevil, who is the father of contention, and he stirreth up the hearts of men to contend with anger, one with another.” Mormons prefer their political candidates like Mitt Romney or Mike Pence—able to articulate their bullshit in a calm, reasonable manner. Trump goes directly against that grain, and I think that’s really the main reason he’s getting such a relatively cold reception from the Mormon community. If anyone has questions, I’ll probably be up for the next couple of hours.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:25
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:This election has become totally ridiculous. The first female presidential candidate versus the first male repeat sex offender candidate. Actually, I bet some of those 18th and 19th century presidents did equally as bad things as Drumpf though 'twas probably considered good sport in those days. let me tell you a little something about thomas jefferson.....
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Oct 13, 2016 06:26
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AMorePerfctGoonion posted:Actually, I bet some of those 18th and 19th century presidents did equally as bad things as Trump though 'twas probably considered good sport in those days. oh wait sorry poo poo i posted the wrong 20th century president, hold on 
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Oct 13, 2016 06:27
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Oh man, how did they explain why? I don't know the nitty gritty details, but he teaches at a low income school thats minority majority + a really high number of muslim students, and Trump was just too toxic. With everything around him, they didn't even want to have some kind of election that was propping him up in any way, the way you would give some token dignity to anyone running for the office usually. Romney was horrible as well, but you could at least have kids look at him and show token respect as a responsible adult running for this important job.
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Oct 13, 2016 06:27
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