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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_BCSysUkgw
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Oct 12, 2016 17:47
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Some good new about the only Dem controlled Senate seat that wasn't safe.. https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/786295793657405440 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/786296833567887360 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/786296245161603072
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Oct 12, 2016 22:09
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edit wrong thread lol
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Oct 12, 2016 23:24
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can someone who knows about The Polls explain what it means that the "leading" candidate still only has 43% of the vote i feel like it's fairly late in the game for such high undecideds but idk
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Oct 12, 2016 23:36
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Badger of Basra posted:can someone who knows about The Polls explain what it means that the "leading" candidate still only has 43% of the vote It's a crazy election? A majority of those undecided are conservatives feeling grossed out by Trump, and therefore the generic Republican candidate.
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Oct 12, 2016 23:38
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Sheriff Joe Arpaio is down 10 points to his Democratic challenger in AZ, and that polling was conducted before it was made public today that he is being charged in federal court with contempt. He has violated a judge's order telling him to stop having officers in his county doing illegal 'immigration patrols'. Prosecutors are saying that they are also pursuing a felony obstruction of justice charge related to illegal seizure of items from motorists by patrol officers. Apparently Arpaio's legal problems have already cost Maricopa County $50 million to date. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-pursue-contempt-charges-against-sheriff-joe-arpaio-n664666
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Oct 12, 2016 23:52
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Badger of Basra posted:can someone who knows about The Polls explain what it means that the "leading" candidate still only has 43% of the vote It is. In Nevada's last competitive Senate race, PPP had the race 49-48 for Reid with only 3% undecided on October 7-9. The 18% undecided in this poll is six times the number six years ago. Interestingly, both Democrats and Republicans are a lot more undecided in this race than in Reid/Angle.  
Pinterest Mom has issued a correction as of 00:00 on Oct 13, 2016 |
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Oct 12, 2016 23:55
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The 2010 race was sadder to me because nearly half of voters in NV thought a literal crazy person like Sharron Angle should be a US Senator. Just to remind people who forget, this is a person who thought that instead of instituting a federal healthcare program like the ACA, we could just let people barter goods for healthcare, like in her example chickens.
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Oct 13, 2016 00:03
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Pinterest Mom posted:It is. In Nevada's last competitive Senate race, PPP had the race 49-48 for Reid with only 3% undecided on October 7-9. The 18% undecided in this poll is six times the number six years ago. This just lends credence to the idea that voters feelings about down ballot are heavily influenced by their feelings about the presidential candidates
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Oct 13, 2016 00:07
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FlamingLiberal posted:The 2010 race was sadder to me because nearly half of voters in NV thought a literal crazy person like Sharron Angle should be a US Senator. Just to remind people who forget, this is a person who thought that instead of instituting a federal healthcare program like the ACA, we could just let people barter goods for healthcare, like in her example chickens. ham sandwich with an r after its name
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Oct 13, 2016 00:59
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/786530003206991872 Those suburban numbers are brutal. 20 years ago, the Philly suburbs were republican strongholds. Toomey has to run at a minimum 9 points ahead of Trump to even have a prayer.
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Oct 13, 2016 14:17
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*talking to us senate* come to butthead
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Oct 13, 2016 15:01
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meanwhile in the wv governor's race, the candidate named cole is going up against a literal coalmine owner who is the richest man in the state, a democratic party donald trump it went up on monday 
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Oct 14, 2016 03:22
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Concerned Citizen posted:i honestly don't know why the gop wanted this. it's essentially locked them out of statewide office. the democrats at daily kos elections constantly whine about top two because every once in a while you'll have a situation where, say, 2 strong republican and 4 strong democratic candidates run in a 60-40 democrat district, resulting in both republicans getting ~20% and moving on to the general while the democrats split the majority of the vote into ~15%-size chunks i think it happened in a downballot race in washington state this year, and i know there was some random house district the gop got a two-year rental on because of this effect that dke just wouldn't shut up about so i guess that's the potential downside meanwhile hillary seems to be outrunning the democrat senate candidates in ohio and florida by double digits. this is such an odd election that i could imagine that sticking although its not like polls are gospel either, there's time for 'em to change, it's possible trump will drop so far that these paltry coattails will drag the democrats to victory, and any other qualifiers you can think of it's still interesting that we're seeing these big differences. will ticket-splitting come back from the dead? and if so, will it go back to the dead after trump's off the ballot? it'll be interesting to follow the tea leaves in the house are pretty wacky. in general, polls conducted after pussygate aren't showing massive immediate wavelike changes, but are generally positive for democrats it seems. the most important of those polls have been discussed above IA-01 and MN-03 were supposed to be some of the easier D flips based on presidential voting and candidate quality but they look surprisingly strong for republicans. on the other hand a beekeeper named eggman might win CA-10 for the D and the sprawling R-friendly CO-03 is also getting ad money thrown at it like a swing district. even the polls are extremely suspect at the house level so looking at how the parties are acting in terms of ad spending is arguably more useful, but really i don't think there's any way to know what's going on. i wonder if these waters will de-muddy at any point in the next few weeks also the gop is trying to ratfuck democrats in NY-21 by talking about how the green party candidate is the real progressive. i don't really know why dke hates the top-two system so much; it seems like avoiding this sort of thing, or the way maine's non-insane voters split between two candidates and made paul lepage a two-term governor, makes up for the occasional lockout by two strong candidates from the minority party (maine might go to the theoretically superior IVR tho iirc, isn't there a ballot measure about that? how is that looking? it would be interesting to see how americans react to that, i think it'd be the highest level it's been applied at in this country?)
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Oct 14, 2016 04:01
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Tommah posted:meanwhile in the wv governor's race, the candidate named cole is going up against a literal coalmine owner who is the richest man in the state, a democratic party donald trump MWVAHA
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Oct 14, 2016 04:47
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incidentally daily kos elections' data guy did a democrat wet dream house map http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...might-look-like  but he does in the end admit this [edit: i forgot a key word here; 'isn't'] borne out by existing data, and he shares a few key districts to watch to see if something real's gonna happen: quote:We’ll be keeping close watch on all of these races from now through Nov. 8, but as the returns come in on election night, we’ll be focusing most tightly on the half-dozen contests below as bellwhethers: note that ME-02, besides having a swing EV according to many, also has a swingy congressional race oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 09:09 on Oct 16, 2016 |
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Oct 16, 2016 04:01
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I just moved into FL-7 so it would be nice if Mica loses, but he's been in that seat forever so I would be a bit surprised. I have seen no advertising for Murphy at all.
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Oct 16, 2016 05:25
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oystertoadfish posted:incidentally daily kos elections' data guy did a democrat wet dream house map Montana and Alaska at large, without even winning the state for Clinton? Seems a bit tough.
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Oct 16, 2016 07:59
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JosefStalinator posted:Montana and Alaska at large, without even winning the state for Clinton? Seems a bit tough. Both are DCCC targets - Montana is Red to Blue (the Dem is outspending the incumbent hard) and Alaska is an emerging race (being watched in case it becomes more competitive). They're tough but not impossible seats.
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Oct 16, 2016 08:20
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yeah there's a lot of reaches there, although mr wolf is in tune enough not to have made any real whoppers i guess? but that map does give democrats a 17-seat majority which is just fanservice really (i mean if it happens itll feel great to be so wrong, but even a wave might not get there), so there's a lot of room to fall back and still get the thing he also tacitly admits that democrats from, say, alaska and montana arent actually socialists, so they're not gonna vote for everything daily kos readers want. that's basically why he decided to plot out a substantial majority, so pelosi could afford to let members vote their conscience/district not really on the radar right now i dont think, but the districts i listed above are a great short set of bellwethers to get a sense for the overall race so that's a nice contribution i really like wolf's maps btw he does good districting poo poo but my guess for the house is to cut ryan's majority down so far that the freedom caucus completely owns him and the party keeps tearing itself apart while the rest of the nation asks them to govern. but idk
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Oct 16, 2016 09:15
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oystertoadfish posted:CA-49: Democrat Doug Applegate vs. GOP Rep. Darrell Issa oystertoadfish posted:but my guess for the house is to cut ryan's majority down so far that the freedom caucus completely owns him and the party keeps tearing itself apart while the rest of the nation asks them to govern. but idk
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Oct 16, 2016 11:57
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dems are taking the house, count it
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Oct 16, 2016 12:00
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theflyingexecutive posted:dems are taking the house, count it sounds like a toxx to me... 
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Oct 16, 2016 16:11
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FMguru posted:Issa going down in flames would be so loving sweet, the perfect capstone to a great election night. Yeah, but he probably just bumped up his fire insurance.
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Oct 16, 2016 21:56
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Oct 17, 2016 03:04
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Holy poo poo hahaha
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Oct 17, 2016 04:57
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That's...a Republican?
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Oct 17, 2016 07:54
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the dude appears to be good at politics im wondering if this election will look in retrospect like a break in the trend toward historically low ticket-splitting between the up- and downballot, and if so, whether it'll continue to next time (either because the effect is independent of nominating an manifestly unfit candidate, or because republicans will continue to nominate manifestly unfit candidates)
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Oct 17, 2016 08:05
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PA Senate debate was tonight, did anyone watch?
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Oct 18, 2016 02:49
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oystertoadfish posted:the dude appears to be good at politics well on one hand we have loud people on twitter threatening to vote D downballot, otoh you have the effect where people split tickets the other way in a blowout I'm guessing we'll see a lot more of the latter than the former
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Oct 18, 2016 02:59
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aBagorn posted:PA Senate debate was tonight, did anyone watch? Oh, was it? hm. Turned on the news to see if they covered it and got something about Katie McGinty's emails instead. 
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Oct 18, 2016 03:08
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Toomey loving weaseled out of every trump question and the moderator didn't have the spine nor steely gaze of cooper
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Oct 18, 2016 03:15
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Cortez Masto up +7 in a CNN poll and Google Consumer Surveys has Kander up +7, both new polls that started last week. Given how Hassan is polling, I am over the moon about the encouraging signs we're getting from other races.
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Oct 18, 2016 15:47
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lol google consumer surveys ok buddy
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Oct 18, 2016 15:53
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theflyingexecutive posted:lol google consumer surveys ok buddy 538 has them as a B rating!
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Oct 18, 2016 16:01
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Democrazy posted:538 has them as a B rating! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xZx1lf2tvs
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Oct 18, 2016 16:18
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Democrazy posted:Cortez Masto up +7 in a CNN poll and Google Consumer Surveys has Kander up +7, both new polls that started last week. Given how Hassan is polling, I am over the moon about the encouraging signs we're getting from other races. please do not be happy about GCS it triggers me and poll talk is my safe space tia
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Oct 18, 2016 16:31
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The Florida Democratic Party https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/788411152187482113
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Oct 18, 2016 17:15
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Quoting WhiskeyJuvenile from USPol.WhiskeyJuvenile posted:https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/788411152187482113 Anybody know what the deal is? hahaha e; f,b
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Oct 18, 2016 17:16
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Slate Action posted:The Florida Democratic Party  Unless it's to make sure that they win in NH and PA this is a mistake.
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Oct 18, 2016 17:16
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