PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

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Ditocoaf: Jun 1, 2011

Okay seriously, is it just me or does the "remember me" checkbox not do anything good. I genuinely want to know if other people are having the same experience that I am.

I swear I have to retype my password nearly every day, and leaving the "remember" checkbox unchecked actually lengthens the time until I have to re-login (up to like three days maybe sometimes).

There is no other website I use that requires a login so frequently, and so unpredictably. There are plenty of internet destinations that will retain my logon for months or years, including this here dead and good forum. Am I doing something wrong on Predictit. I am confused and annoyed.

To make up for this slightly off topic complain post, here's the most helpful PI thing I know: if you choose to invest in one of the many variants on a "who will win the election" market, "Republican NO" is by far the most lucrative. It'll sometimes be at like 79 cents when "Hillary Clinton YES" is at like 82. It's weird. (Also Republican 370 has been hilariously bouncing between 8/92 and 12/88 for a while now, it's the best place to take advantage of conspiracy theorists on the entire site if you have the patience to wait for a month for a 11% return.)

Ditocoaf has issued a correction as of 11:46 on Oct 15, 2016

# ? Oct 15, 2016 11:35

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# ? May 29, 2024 20:10

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

Discospawn posted:

I think it is easy to overestimate Trump's impact on this race (which is ironic, because during the primaries he was constantly underestimated). A lot of 'independents' who always vote straight-ticket Republican are going to get to that ballot in November, see the 'R' next to Trump's name, and do what they always do. A lot of people who have heard negatives about Clinton for the past 2 decades see her more unfavorably than Trump, regardless of the specifics of either candidate and their actual behavior.

I think typically Republican states are way undervalued right now (e.g. TX going Republican is at $.77) and that's where the money to be made is. It seems like any time anybody starts to push a narrative like, "don't look at the polls now, look at the future polls," you're more likely to be following a bandwagon that doesn't end up going anywhere.

It's certainly possible, but to the extent there is a hidden 'Trump sucks but Hillary sucks more' vote, it's not showing up in the polls today. Earlier this fall, they were Johnson voters but Johnson has been falling without affecting Trump's vote share at all.

I'm not saying to go buy Dem.TX (actually, since Hillary has no ground game there either and nothing important downticket, GOP.TX seems pretty good at 77) but we all know Trump is not going to overperform his polls outside the Midwest at this point so you're hoping for the polls to be accurate and for undecideds to allocate proportionally with no margin for error. This strikes me as trying to catch a falling knife.

# ? Oct 15, 2016 12:05

huge pile of hamburger: Nov 4, 2009

Ditocoaf posted:

Okay seriously, is it just me or does the "remember me" checkbox not do anything good. I genuinely want to know if other people are having the same experience that I am.

I swear I have to retype my password nearly every day, and leaving the "remember" checkbox unchecked actually lengthens the time until I have to re-login (up to like three days maybe sometimes).

There is no other website I use that requires a login so frequently, and so unpredictably. There are plenty of internet destinations that will retain my logon for months or years, including this here dead and good forum. Am I doing something wrong on Predictit. I am confused and annoyed.

Yup, same here. It's real annoying. I have to relogin on the desktop or phone app about once per day. It wasn't always like that as I remember back around the Biden Run days that it remembered you like normal websites.

# ? Oct 15, 2016 13:48

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Discospawn posted:

I think it is easy to overestimate Trump's impact on this race (which is ironic, because during the primaries he was constantly underestimated). A lot of 'independents' who always vote straight-ticket Republican are going to get to that ballot in November, see the 'R' next to Trump's name, and do what they always do. A lot of people who have heard negatives about Clinton for the past 2 decades see her more unfavorably than Trump, regardless of the specifics of either candidate and their actual behavior.

I think typically Republican states are way undervalued right now (e.g. TX going Republican is at $.77) and that's where the money to be made is. It seems like any time anybody starts to push a narrative like, "don't look at the polls now, look at the future polls," you're more likely to be following a bandwagon that doesn't end up going anywhere.

I think that you're missing an important component of this. The issue with figuring out what is gonna happen with the House isn't on undecided voters, it's on turnout. Remember that the entire point of the Democrat's ground operation isn't to convince people to vote for them, it's to get voters already inclined to vote Democrat (i.e. those independents who you so astutely pointed out always come back in the end) to the polls or to vote early/by mail. The increase in early voting, and the reported edge in votes that Democrats have, would seem to suggest that the strategy is working.

The RNC is gamely putting together a GOTV operation after Trump told them that he's not gonna bother, but I don't know anyone who thinks that Republicans have an advantage on the ground this election or even that they'll be able to do as good as 2012 or 2014. Remember that Obama outperformed his polls in 2012 by 3% on the strength of this operation, and that was with Romney putting a lot of resources into GOTV. We don't have historical precedent for a presidential campaign not putting together a ground game and no one really knows quantifiably how much of a difference GOTV actually makes. It's easy to forget that in 2012, 30 races were decided by less than 5%, and 16 of those races were less than 3%. There were similar numbers in 2014, where 25 races were decided by less than 5%, and 15 of those races were less than 3%. In both of those elections, we're talking margins of a few thousand votes in each district out of hundreds of thousands of voters.

It's gonna come down to districts like MN-3 (I live in MN-1, so this is the one that I am most familiar with of the districts that are gonna be close), which has a small, but reliable Republican lean that Cook puts at R+2. Republicans have an incumbent there, and the Democrats don't have a great candidate, but it's been reliably Republican on the strength of suburban women and there's a big question right now how they're gonna vote downballot. The incumbent there was one of the elected officials who publicly repudiated Trump after the hot mic tape came out, and this is from a guy who won by 8% in 2008 and has won by 20+% since. For him to take the risk of pissing of the Trump supporters in his district, I gotta think that he's got some internal polling that shows him far closer than he would like to be.

All that said, I still don't think Democrats are gonna flip the House, but I think it's gonna be a really close margin and given that it's gotta be one of the more uncertain bets right up until election day, I don't know that there's any place it'll go that I would consider a smart bet on either side.

# ? Oct 15, 2016 15:06

thethreeman: May 10, 2008; Fallen Rib

I think NHSen Hassan beating Ayotte is stupidly cheap at 60c right now, despite that poll from early Oct...

Ditocoaf posted:

Okay seriously, is it just me or does the "remember me" checkbox not do anything good. I genuinely want to know if other people are having the same experience that I am.

I swear I have to retype my password nearly every day, and leaving the "remember" checkbox unchecked actually lengthens the time until I have to re-login (up to like three days maybe sometimes).

There is no other website I use that requires a login so frequently, and so unpredictably. There are plenty of internet destinations that will retain my logon for months or years, including this here dead and good forum. Am I doing something wrong on Predictit. I am confused and annoyed.

To make up for this slightly off topic complain post, here's the most helpful PI thing I know: if you choose to invest in one of the many variants on a "who will win the election" market, "Republican NO" is by far the most lucrative. It'll sometimes be at like 79 cents when "Hillary Clinton YES" is at like 82. It's weird. (Also Republican 370 has been hilariously bouncing between 8/92 and 12/88 for a while now, it's the best place to take advantage of conspiracy theorists on the entire site if you have the patience to wait for a month for a 11% return.)

Just use FB/Twitter for login. Create a dummy twitter account if you have to. Single click versus typing in your password

# ? Oct 15, 2016 19:55

Arkane: Dec 19, 2006; by R. Guyovich

thethreeman posted:

I think NHSen Hassan beating Ayotte is stupidly cheap at 60c right now, despite that poll from early Oct...

Hassan has only led in one of the past 7 public polls...Hillary's strength is built into Hassan's price, without any corresponding evidence that this is corresponding into Hassan being ahead. Seems fine to think that Hassan is secretly ahead, seems dumb to think that 60 cents is "stupidly cheap."

# ? Oct 15, 2016 21:32

Discospawn: Mar 3, 2007

Azathoth posted:

We don't have historical precedent for a presidential campaign not putting together a ground game and no one really knows quantifiably how much of a difference GOTV actually makes.

Yeah, this is one of the unknowns in this election that I don't think will have an impact at all, along with the difference in ad buys between the candidates. I think we've moved past the era where advertising and phone calls make a huge difference, because everything is so partisan now and media coverage is so ubiquitous that paid spots are still a very small percentage of people's media consumption.

But its possible I'm extrapolating my own experience as a millennial and it'll be more important among the baby boomer and senior population (who actually decide elections).

# ? Oct 15, 2016 22:33

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

Ground on election day means a lot of door knocking but also herding cats in populated areas, (actual) poll watchers, and, frankly, driving old people around. I buy the +3% estimates but don't think it can feasibly go much higher. That said, because ground is the one place where microtargeting can be the most effective, Hillary can easily get the most out of that 3% in a way Trump can't match and outperform exactly where she needs to.

Ultimately, though, if I'm right and the election turns out to be something like 12 points it's gonna be really hard to point at somewhere she beats him by 15 and say 'oh there it was'.

# ? Oct 15, 2016 23:09

IM DAY DAY IRL: Jul 11, 2003; Everything's fine.

Nothing to see here.

As much as I get on board with everything you guys are saying about GOP.TX I feel like the potential 25% return on a 80c wager still doesn't trump (...) Donnie's ability to continue the complete train wreck he's been driving lately

# ? Oct 15, 2016 23:51

theflyingexecutive: Apr 22, 2007

Abuela is in the margin of error and is heading up an unholy campaign apparatus capable of pretty drastic gotv, plus has a lot in the bank for directed ad blitzes

# ? Oct 16, 2016 00:05

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

IM DAY DAY IRL posted:

As much as I get on board with everything you guys are saying about GOP.TX I feel like the potential 25% return on a 80c wager still doesn't trump (...) Donnie's ability to continue the complete train wreck he's been driving lately

these are betfair numbers so YMMV, but I would take 30% in Florida and 27% in North Carolina for max before I touched Texas in either direction

# ? Oct 16, 2016 01:49

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2602/Who-will-get-the-most-speaking-time-at-the-UNLV-debate
Speaking time is at 70c Trump.
-FoxNews� "Moderated" debate
-Trump, who loves the best words and meanders about them bigly

# ? Oct 16, 2016 02:11

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

In for a big no republican president and some littles on dem pres land slide and bought some dem pres in and ga. Also in for dem Indiana gov.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 02:31

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Discospawn posted:

Yeah, this is one of the unknowns in this election that I don't think will have an impact at all, along with the difference in ad buys between the candidates. I think we've moved past the era where advertising and phone calls make a huge difference, because everything is so partisan now and media coverage is so ubiquitous that paid spots are still a very small percentage of people's media consumption.

But its possible I'm extrapolating my own experience as a millennial and it'll be more important among the baby boomer and senior population (who actually decide elections).

For big segments of the population, I think you're right, however the big unknown is how much of a difference Hillary's GOTV outreach to minority communities will make. Early voting is showing an edge for Democrats so far, and much has been made in the news about the increase in voter registration among minority communities. In particular, I'd point to what is happening in North Carolina, where in 2012, Romney ran up a lead in early voting and then held on to win the state but this year the numbers favor Hillary. The same thing looks to be happening in Florida as well, and I've seen similar stories from a lot of states. John McCain said that the Hispanic community is roused and angry in a way he's never seen, and I think that's playing out across the country right now across a lot of immigrant groups.

Whether we're seeing actual increases or just time-shifted voting is something that we can't know until election day, but I think it points to the ability of the Democrat GOTV operation to actually get people to do something (register to vote, vote early, request mail-in ballots, etc.). Obviously, we won't know until election day, but I'd be hesitant to discount it at this point.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 03:12

Zeta Taskforce: Jun 27, 2002

Don't bet on polls, but the Clinton v Trump in Pennsylvania is way over priced in B1 for Clinton. She is ahead, she is going to stay ahead. Pennsylvania is not a swing state with her current numbers. That said she is not going to lead by +10 and if you agree and you're patient you can make that bet for the mid 70's

# ? Oct 16, 2016 14:09

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

Discospawn posted:

Yeah, this is one of the unknowns in this election that I don't think will have an impact at all, along with the difference in ad buys between the candidates. I think we've moved past the era where advertising and phone calls make a huge difference, because everything is so partisan now and media coverage is so ubiquitous that paid spots are still a very small percentage of people's media consumption.

But its possible I'm extrapolating my own experience as a millennial and it'll be more important among the baby boomer and senior population (who actually decide elections).

FWIW - this just isn't true. We've conducted a lot of studies on this and found the opposite - both TV and field work, and if they're done correctly they work really well.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 16:07

LinYutang: Oct 12, 2016; NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!

New to this, and I guess this is questioning the wisdom of the market: how/why is Hillary wins at 80 cents? This is seriously easy money, right?

edit: nm, didn't know about the max traders on a contract, can't buy in

LinYutang has issued a correction as of 16:26 on Oct 16, 2016

# ? Oct 16, 2016 16:19

theflyingexecutive: Apr 22, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

FWIW - this just isn't true. We've conducted a lot of studies on this and found the opposite - both TV and field work, and if they're done correctly they work really well.

how well are those gains reflected in the polls?

# ? Oct 16, 2016 16:28

Nosre: Apr 16, 2002

LinYutang posted:

New to this, and I guess this is questioning the wisdom of the market: how/why is Hillary wins at 80 cents? This is seriously easy money, right?

edit: nm, didn't know about the max traders on a contract, can't buy in

There's a bunch that do the same thing. Woman elected prez, Tim Kaine elected, etc. They're all different markets to get around restrictions on the site, but effectively the same play.

And yea, hopefully easy money

# ? Oct 16, 2016 16:31

Ditocoaf: Jun 1, 2011

LinYutang posted:

New to this, and I guess this is questioning the wisdom of the market: how/why is Hillary wins at 80 cents? This is seriously easy money, right?

edit: nm, didn't know about the max traders on a contract, can't buy in

There's Hillary Yes, Trump No, Woman President Yes, Kaine Yes, Pence No, and Democrat Yes and Republican No. All basically equivilant.

Of all of these, Republican No has been sitting at 2-4 cents cheaper (both buy and sell) than the others almost all the time, no clue why. At one point I sold all my Hillary Yesses for 83 cents and bought Repub Nos at 79.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 16:33

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Ditocoaf posted:

Of all of these, Republican No has been sitting at 2-4 cents cheaper (both buy and sell) than the others almost all the time, no clue why. At one point I sold all my Hillary Yesses for 83 cents and bought Repub Nos at 79.

Always sell all but one, just in case.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 16:43

LinYutang: Oct 12, 2016; NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!

Nosre posted:

There's a bunch that do the same thing. Woman elected prez, Tim Kaine elected, etc. They're all different markets to get around restrictions on the site, but effectively the same play.

And yea, hopefully easy money

Ditocoaf posted:

There's Hillary Yes, Trump No, Woman President Yes, Kaine Yes, Pence No, and Democrat Yes and Republican No. All basically equivilant.

Of all of these, Republican No has been sitting at 2-4 cents cheaper (both buy and sell) than the others almost all the time, no clue why. At one point I sold all my Hillary Yesses for 83 cents and bought Repub Nos at 79.

Nice! Thanks.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 17:15

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

Betfair is also sitting at 81c. Currently there's $500,000 in action between 81-83.

The size of the bets (really uncommon for the market) makes me suspect that a different sportsbook is trying to hedge losses.

# ? Oct 16, 2016 17:23

tangy yet delightful: Sep 13, 2005

Ditocoaf posted:

There's Hillary Yes, Trump No, Woman President Yes, Kaine Yes, Pence No, and Democrat Yes and Republican No. All basically equivilant.

Of all of these, Republican No has been sitting at 2-4 cents cheaper (both buy and sell) than the others almost all the time, no clue why. At one point I sold all my Hillary Yesses for 83 cents and bought Repub Nos at 79.

Just signed up to buy Repub Nos with $100, maximum number of shares sold, welp buying Dem Yes instead for now. Time to :getin:

on this poo poo.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 01:15

Nosre: Apr 16, 2002

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2451/What-will-be-the-2016-presidential-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory is looking tempting with all this talk/signs of Clinton overperforming. If she beats 2008 Obama (7.26%) and gets to 8, the top 3 brackets can be had for 50c total.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 17:05

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Ditocoaf posted:

There's Hillary Yes, Trump No, Woman President Yes, Kaine Yes, Pence No, and Democrat Yes and Republican No. All basically equivilant.

Of all of these, Republican No has been sitting at 2-4 cents cheaper (both buy and sell) than the others almost all the time, no clue why. At one point I sold all my Hillary Yesses for 83 cents and bought Repub Nos at 79.

This is so strange and seems too good to be true. There has to be a catch, right? I mean I could just dump a ton of money into this and get free money back.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 17:52

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Fitzy Fitz posted:

This is so strange and seems too good to be true. There has to be a catch, right? I mean I could just dump a ton of money into this and get free money back.

The catches are the 10% profit rake, the 5% withdrawal rake, and the increasingly small but real chance that Trump pulls a win and takes all your money.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 18:34

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

I'm more worried about PredictIt going under than Trump winning the election.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 18:48

DMCrimson: Jan 2, 2005; Nap Ghost

Fitzy Fitz posted:

This is so strange and seems too good to be true. There has to be a catch, right? I mean I could just dump a ton of money into this and get free money back.

The catch is the possibility that Trump wins and you lose your entire stake. I'm on the side that Hillary has this election in the bag and I've maxed a few contracts based on that assumption.

Also, don't forget the who-wins-state contracts as well if you're considering all options. If you already assume Hillary will win, you probably assume she will also win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, etc and those are all separate contracts.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 18:48

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

I got in to VA.DEM at $.60 when it first opened :twisted:

# ? Oct 17, 2016 18:53

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

DMCrimson posted:

The catch is the possibility that Trump wins and you lose your entire stake. I'm on the side that Hillary has this election in the bag and I've maxed a few contracts based on that assumption.

Also, don't forget the who-wins-state contracts as well if you're considering all options. If you already assume Hillary will win, you probably assume she will also win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, etc and those are all separate contracts.

Yeah you could put about $4000 into these safe bets and come out with about $550-600 profit (after fees).

Man I don't know.

If it's still 80/20 the day before the election I might just do that and immediately withdraw, but I'm too scared to have that much money held up in this site.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 19:01

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

I think credit card deposits take 30 days to clear so if you are planning to float the grace you might get nailed with interest. My wife wants me to put 10k on Hillary. I put it all on McMuffin taking Utah.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 19:32

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Please do not "float the grace" or otherwise borrow money to bet on PredictIt "sure thing" markets.

But if you do, post about it here in great detail.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 19:36

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Oh, I have the money. It just seems too good to be true that I could click a few buttons and be up $500.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 19:45

IM DAY DAY IRL: Jul 11, 2003; Everything's fine.

Nothing to see here.

that's because it is

# ? Oct 17, 2016 19:52

IM DAY DAY IRL: Jul 11, 2003; Everything's fine.

Nothing to see here.

can we talk about ohio for a minute though

# ? Oct 17, 2016 19:52

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

Ohio is going to be R+10 from the national #s this cycle so good luck with that (Hildawg sure looks like she'll win by 12 though)

also posting to brag about this one

# ? Oct 17, 2016 20:28

Ditocoaf: Jun 1, 2011

I still don't get why Republican NO is consistently 3 cents cheaper than every equivalent-or-worse market. Is there some scenario I'm not seeing where Republican NO fails but Hillary YES and Woman Prez YES pay out? It seems like it would be the other way around, if anything.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 20:31

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

Oh McMullen 20% polling contracts jumped with new poll putting him at 29%. Oh yeah.

# ? Oct 17, 2016 20:34

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# ? May 29, 2024 20:10

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

Ditocoaf posted:

I still don't get why Republican NO is consistently 3 cents cheaper than every equivalent-or-worse market. Is there some scenario I'm not seeing where Republican NO fails but Hillary YES and Woman Prez YES pay out? It seems like it would be the other way around, if anything.

Keep in mind that any off-brand contract is something that will cost you liquidity on November 8th when you can't get out of it quickly enough. Might not matter on PI where the individual contract limits are so small, but micromanaging all your bets adds up too, especially if the site goes down (it will go down).

# ? Oct 17, 2016 20:39

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

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