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Fidel Castronaut posted:Do they have any plans for after the election? Is it just going to be polls and foreign elections? They should get into entertainment. They will probably do more markets of things like "will this politician do X" or "will this law get passed". If they can pick ones that reel in diehard partisans it'll be great.
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Oct 19, 2016 04:55
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| # ? May 30, 2024 03:32 |
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groundhogs day shadow market
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Oct 19, 2016 04:57
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Trash Trick posted:groundhogs day shadow market You joke (maybe), but there's no way they don't do this.
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Oct 19, 2016 05:00
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I hope they do a literal "will our coin land on heads or tails" market. I'll be a diehard tails pumper, because tails never fails.
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Oct 19, 2016 05:46
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Concerned Citizen posted:I hope they do a literal "will our coin land on heads or tails" market. I'll be a diehard tails pumper, because tails never fails. typical tails pumping. heads is scientifically more likely, you know.........
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Oct 19, 2016 06:08
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I'd play both sides flipping shares but it would be a toss up.Trash Trick posted:groundhogs day shadow market Could shook Nate come up with a model to predict the outcome? dangling pointer has issued a correction as of 06:20 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 06:13
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:typical tails pumping. heads is scientifically more likely, you know......... Technically correct for U.S. quarters, but not by nearly enough to beat the vig.
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Oct 19, 2016 06:25
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Trash Trick posted:I just saw an ad for predictit on facebook Fidel Castronaut posted:I saw a banner ad on here. It's catching on! Just in time to become irrelevant! do you guys not understand google retargeting
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Oct 19, 2016 07:15
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:do you guys not understand google retargeting it's weird to see predictit advertising at all, even if it is targeted, friendo.
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Oct 19, 2016 07:33
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What's a good thing to bet on also you can't short sell stuff, just buy yes or no?
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Oct 19, 2016 07:53
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That new map thing is hilarious to me because it illustrates that California and New York are both being treated as less sure blue than Washington and Oregon.
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Oct 19, 2016 10:43
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Ditocoaf posted:That new map thing is hilarious to me because it illustrates that California and New York are both being treated as less sure blue than Washington and Oregon. They’re all straddling 95˘ and flip shades depending on which direction the last trade went.
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Oct 19, 2016 10:53
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Ditocoaf posted:That new map thing is hilarious to me because it illustrates that California and New York are both being treated as less sure blue than Washington and Oregon. I think that has more to do with the fact that PI takes a 5% withdrawal fee than anything else, so buying something like CA or NY for >94c is just losing money
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Oct 19, 2016 15:13
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dik-dik posted:I think that has more to do with the fact that PI takes a 5% withdrawal fee than anything else, so buying something like CA or NY for >94c is just losing money If you immediately withdraw, yes. If you reinvest that, it's a VERY safe 5% gain.
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Oct 19, 2016 15:30
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dik-dik posted:I think that has more to do with the fact that PI takes a 5% withdrawal fee than anything else, so buying something like CA or NY for >94c is just losing money Yah whenever you buy something on this site, you should put a sell order in at 94 cents. Otherwise you'll start to lose money when it goes over that amount. Cus thats how math works.
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Oct 19, 2016 15:58
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Baddog posted:Yah whenever you buy something on this site, you should put a sell order in at 94 cents. Otherwise you'll start to lose money when it goes over that amount. dik-dik's post is how the math works out if you deposit/withdraw money for a single bet. Profit and withdraw fees are more expensive than the flat winnings from buying 95˘ shares. If you keep your winnings on PredictIt, you can go nuts with buying 99˘ shares until you cross the threshold. I'd guess most people on PredictIt have little interest in reinvesting winnings, causing the common ~95˘ ceiling across the safest states. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 16:42 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 16:22
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OAquinas posted:If you immediately withdraw, yes. If you reinvest that, it's a VERY safe 5% gain. North Dakota and South Dakota are at 90c and 88c for the Republicans respectively, and Minnesota and Wisconsin are at 91c and 89c respectively for the Democrats, for example. I think that PredictIt folding up is far more likely than any of those four states flipping at this point, and they'd get you double the return.
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Oct 19, 2016 16:27
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Baddog posted:Yah whenever you buy something on this site, you should put a sell order in at 94 cents. Otherwise you'll start to lose money when it goes over that amount. Can someone elaborate on this? It's been years since I've taken a math class and I want to not be dumb anymore. There's a 10% cut on profits. And a 5% cut on withdrawals. If you deposit $1, invest in a $0.80 option, win, and withdraw, it would look like this: .95(Deposit + .9[{Deposit x 1.2} - Deposit]) Right? Wrong? Why does selling at $0.94 make more sense in that scenario? e: was that a joke? Will I always be dumb? Fitzy Fitz has issued a correction as of 16:50 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 16:44
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Can someone elaborate on this? It's been years since I've taken a math class and I want to not be dumb anymore. He was being both sarcastic and incorrect, please ignore that post. The math is simple: If you put in money for a bet and expect to withdraw after that bet closes, make sure that the shares you buy are 94˘ or cheaper. If the shares are more expensive, you will lose money even if the bet settles in your favor. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 17:34 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 17:03
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Can someone elaborate on this? It's been years since I've taken a math class and I want to not be dumb anymore. Your math equation came through weird on my phone, but selling at 94 cents does not make more sense than selling at $1.00. Say that you put $800 into a market that trades at 80 cents and you hold it to the end you will have $1000. You are automatically dinged $20 on the $200 profit, you have $980 in your account. Take that out and you lose another $49. You are ahead $131. If instead you sell at 94 then you will have $940 in the account, $140 being profit. They will take $14 leaving you with $926. When you close the account they will take $46.30. You will pull out $879.70. Ultimately you will be ahead by $79.70. They take more money in scenario 1, but only because there is a bigger pool of profits and money there. You should be trying to make as much as possible. .
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Oct 19, 2016 17:19
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OK, that's what I originally thought. Thanks.
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Oct 19, 2016 17:47
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You all are cracking me up  Just three pages back I replied to someone who was pushing the "94 cent rule". Forgive me for being irritated that its coming up again so quickly. Just realize there is a 5% fee on everything you withdraw, a 10% fee on each trade's profit, and taxes on your overall winnings if you are honest and/or make enough in a year to get them reported to the irs. And then do the math for your ROI over however many trades you are planning to do before you want/need to withdraw. How about we try a better rule, like "Don't deposit money for just one bet and withdraw it immediately after, cus you usually give up a relatively big chunk of your win, and maybe even lose money if you do that. You're loving poo poo with money just stop it". Or maybe just keep telling everyone the "94 cent rule", because I do like making 6%+ in nearly 100% lock markets that are going to resolve very quickly.
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Oct 19, 2016 17:56
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To be honest I'm kind of hoping the site largely clears out after the election so I can go back to making really easy buys at unfair prices like before the primaries started. I feel like those days may be gone for good, though.
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Oct 19, 2016 19:12
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Anyone else taking the under on the debate viewers? Cubs Dodgers and Bear Packers should drive down viewership, plus campaign fatigue. Only crazy people are excited for it?
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Oct 19, 2016 20:38
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Elephanthead posted:Anyone else taking the under on the debate viewers? Cubs Dodgers and Bear Packers should drive down viewership, plus campaign fatigue. Only crazy people are excited for it? Yeah, seems likely. http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/a-ratings-history-of-third-presidential-debates/308605
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Oct 19, 2016 21:04
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Yeah, seems likely. quote:While anchors from ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN have all moderated in the past, this is the first time the 20-year-old has been included in the moderator pool. The article seems to be missing a key word? I don't have a lot of big bets going on, but I'm Handshake - yes The optics looked so weird last time, they want to avoid such awkwardness this time. Right? Podesta - no McMuffin - no Just bought NO on the top 3 viewership tiers. as long as it comes in below 70 I'll make a 30% return. The record was 66.9 million in 1992 when there was a significant 3rd party and everything else was a lot lower. Based on games in the Chicago and LA, the 2nd and 3rd largest cities, general fatigue and disgust, not hitting 70 seems like a given. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 23:08 on Oct 19, 2016 |
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Oct 19, 2016 21:21
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https://www.predictit.org/Contract/599/Will-the-Republican-party-win-the-US-Senate-Race-in-Wisconsin-in-2016#data No is currently only 89 cents! Get it while it's hot.
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Oct 19, 2016 23:47
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In with: "Podesta" any mention -- No "Rigged" moderator mention -- No Pre-debate handshake -- No
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Oct 20, 2016 01:17
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Only jumped in on the handshake market due to this weirdness: http://www.mediaite.com/online/report-clinton-requested-to-skip-pre-debate-handshakes-between-her-family-and-trumps/ Could potentially eat poo poo pretty badly tonight!
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Oct 20, 2016 01:18
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Bought 2 shares of "Will a UNLV debate moderator say “lock her up"?" Yes @ $.16 per share because I have 32 cents lying around on that site now.
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Oct 20, 2016 01:22
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handshake no open borders no lets go
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Oct 20, 2016 01:29
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reminder ive lost every single bet so far on the debates. good money could be made just betting against me, in general.
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Oct 20, 2016 01:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Only jumped in on the handshake market due to this weirdness: http://www.mediaite.com/online/report-clinton-requested-to-skip-pre-debate-handshakes-between-her-family-and-trumps/ Sold my handshake YES for a 2 cent profit. Didn't by NO.
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Oct 20, 2016 01:42
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Vox Nihili posted:Only jumped in on the handshake market due to this weirdness: http://www.mediaite.com/online/report-clinton-requested-to-skip-pre-debate-handshakes-between-her-family-and-trumps/ Good enough for me. In on this stupid poo poo.
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Oct 20, 2016 01:44
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In the handshake NO. Ride together, die together!!!
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Oct 20, 2016 01:53
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dangling pointer posted:In the handshake NO. Grats, all!
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Oct 20, 2016 02:06
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gently caress YEAH
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Oct 20, 2016 02:06
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lmao I snatched up 142 shares in the 11th hour and BOOYAHHHHHH
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Oct 20, 2016 02:07
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oops wrong thread
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Oct 20, 2016 02:08
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| # ? May 30, 2024 03:32 |
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wrong thread
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Oct 20, 2016 02:08
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