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Deceitful Penguin posted:The agricultural poo poo is very normal; China, just like a lot of nations isn't self-sufficient when it comes to food so it's always near the top of the list when it comes to starting these deals. The loans are not resource backed from the looks of things as they are lines of credit being extended from private Chinese banks and not the import-export one. That is not good. Also, sure, if you're after opiates but Ectasy, Crystal Meth and Marijuana are produced in staggeringly large amounts in china. They're really bad at enforcing their own drug laws too.
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Oct 20, 2016 18:24
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As I recall, China used some extremely draconic methods back in the day to eliminate its opium addiction problem, so Duterte might be looking forward to getting some training on that, too.
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Oct 20, 2016 18:28
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Bobbin Threadbare posted:As I recall, China used some extremely draconic methods back in the day to eliminate its opium addiction problem, so Duterte might be looking forward to getting some training on that, too. And it has never been a problem since!*
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Oct 20, 2016 18:32
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My perspective when Duterte was elected was 'let's see where he is in a year,' but I have no idea now how it is going to shake out. Even if people get sick of his extrajudicial death squads he's making changes that can't just be reversed. I'm not sure if US policy re: China and SE Asia ever considered that something like this might happen.
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Oct 20, 2016 18:36
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Yeah, just talking about what's already happened, what the hell could you do to get rid of 22 billion dollars in debt to the chinese? I mean, that's gonna be the first nightmare problem to whoever comes after.
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Oct 20, 2016 18:43
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ihatepants posted:There are still a ton of Chinese tourists and they are still really bad and kind of disgusting, to be honest. My wife used to work in Makati Med, which is one of the best hospitals in the country and there were multiple times when I would come and pick her up and witness Chinese nationals doing gross poo poo. Spitting on the floors, blowing their snot onto the floor, one time even holding up their infant to pee into one of the potted plants. Awful stuff to do, especially in a hospital. I wonder if that might be some sort of cultural thing. My Chinese coworker will frequently loudly snort and then spit whatever he snorted up. He's a really nice guy otherwise so it's not something done out of malice or anything.
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Oct 20, 2016 18:46
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Holy poo poo. The mad man actually did it. How many sharks are there in the SCS and how many did Duterte jump over?
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Oct 20, 2016 18:59
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Ytlaya posted:I wonder if that might be some sort of cultural thing. My Chinese coworker will frequently loudly snort and then spit whatever he snorted up. He's a really nice guy otherwise so it's not something done out of malice or anything. I can't help but wonder if it's to do with the horrific air pollution of a lot of chinese cities, which causes your lungs and throat to gunk up like nothing else.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:00
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sincx posted:Holy poo poo. The mad man actually did it. How many sharks are there in the SCS and how many did Duterte jump over? Ehh, as long as the treaty is still in place and US bases are still in the Philippines he hasn't quite yet put his money where his mouth is
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Oct 20, 2016 19:05
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So, is there anyone in the opposition challenging this move?
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Oct 20, 2016 19:07
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Fojar38 posted:Ehh, as long as the treaty is still in place and US bases are still in the Philippines he hasn't quite yet put his money where his mouth is All signs point to him threatening to rip the treaties up. Sure, he'll have to find a way to push US bases out, but he's basically done everything else no one could have foreseen, why not that?
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Oct 20, 2016 19:08
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Mulva posted:How is everyone in the Philippines reacting to the fact Glorious Leader just sold out the country for nothing? It's either horrified at the sheer stupidity of it all or too enamored at the 9B USD to notice that it's a loan.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:11
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CommieGIR posted:All signs point to him threatening to rip the treaties up. Sure, he'll have to find a way to push US bases out, but he's basically done everything else no one could have foreseen, why not that? Threatening isn't really the same as doing. I mean sure, he might, but that would actually be far more severe than anything he's done today or before today.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:11
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Fojar38 posted:Threatening isn't really the same as doing. I mean sure, he might, but that would actually be far more severe than anything he's done today or before today. He's already taken on an astounding amount of future debt, called the US president a bastard and had thousands shot in the street.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:18
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So, I imagined that Duterte, being a moron, would follow through on his threats to pivot away from the US and towards China. But I didn't realize that he'd demand basically nothing in exchange. This is insane.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:20
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Mozi posted:My perspective when Duterte was elected was 'let's see where he is in a year,' but I have no idea now how it is going to shake out. Even if people get sick of his extrajudicial death squads he's making changes that can't just be reversed. I'm not sure if US policy re: China and SE Asia ever considered that something like this might happen. "Getting sick of" extrajudicial death squads really doesn't happen. All that happens is that you end up facing them.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:20
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I can't imagine the Philippine military or foreign policy establishment are pleased about all this Edit: Hell I'd be making GBS threads my goddamn pants if I were a Filipino executive
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Oct 20, 2016 19:23
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CommieGIR posted:All signs point to him threatening to rip the treaties up. Sure, he'll have to find a way to push US bases out, but he's basically done everything else no one could have foreseen, why not that? The US has plenty of nearby options for drama free bases. I'm sure Indonesia would be more than happy to host any US forces the Philippines did up til now. Hell, if the US wants to sweeten it enough, Vietnam would be up for that.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:29
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Ceiling fan posted:The US has plenty of nearby options for drama free bases. I'm sure Indonesia would be more than happy to host any US forces the Philippines did up til now. Hell, if the US wants to sweeten it enough, Vietnam would be up for that. That'll be a hell of an irony, but considering Vietnam is not a fan of China right now, I could totally see that happening.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:33
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Ceiling fan posted:US wants to sweeten it enough, Vietnam would be up for that. So, uh, no bad feelings then?
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Oct 20, 2016 19:40
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BarbarianElephant posted:"Getting sick of" extrajudicial death squads really doesn't happen. All that happens is that you end up facing them. I meant that to mean that the negative effects of his actions become more apparent to his supporters, or start to affect them more directly. As long as the guy has 90% support, he's going to keep on keeping on.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:41
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BarbarianElephant posted:So, uh, no bad feelings then?
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Oct 20, 2016 19:42
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Ersatz posted:Traditionally, Vietnam hates China more than the US. And the average American doesn't care anymore. Vietnam hates the French more than the US and that was even further back.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:00
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A military base might be a step too far. It'd probably be political suicide through angering the old guard.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:03
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China would lose its mind if the US tried to base in Vietnam too. It would escalate tensions a lot at the very least, and probably lead China to take some strong actions elsewhere in response. Imagine if Mexico decided to host a Chinese base.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:10
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Sinteres posted:China would lose its mind if the US tried to base in Vietnam too. It would escalate tensions a lot at the very least, and probably lead China to take some strong actions elsewhere in response. Imagine if Mexico decided to host a Chinese base. I know you probably didn't intend it this way but this is the exact same rhetoric you hear from PRC apologists whining that China's neighbours host US bases. "What if China hosted a base in Mexico?!?!?" The difference, of course, being that Mexico has no interest in hosting a Chinese base and even if they did, China doesn't have the logistical capacity to support it.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:12
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Fojar38 posted:I know you probably didn't intend it this way but this is the exact same rhetoric you hear from PRC apologists whining that China's neighbours host US bases. "What if China hosted a base in Mexico?!?!?" As China gets stronger, their opinion on what happens in their part of the world matters a lot more, and it becomes more difficult to introduce new strategic elements in their neighborhood that are contrary to what they'll "allow," at least if we aren't willing to accept some level of risk of blowback. Sure, Mexico won't allow China basing rights, and China's not in a position to exploit them yet if they did, but if a Mexican Duterte suddenly got the idea that he liked China more, there's no way we'd sit there and do nothing while China built up forces in Mexico. This isn't about right or wrong, or whether China's being reasonable or unreasonable, and I'm certainly not a Chinese apologist. I'd like the US to remain the world's dominant power forever if I had a choice. In the real world though, Vietnam is objectively more strategically important to China than it is to us, so they'd be likely to risk more to uphold the status quo there than we would be to upset it. We're certainly still the stronger country in a global sense, and even throughout most of the Pacific, but Vietnam is pretty much the last place we'd want to try to force any issue. I'm not saying we should spurn Vietnam entirely, and when we can utilize their opposition to China to aid in our effort to prevent Chinese dominance of an important trade zone, we should do so. I just don't think full basing rights are a realistic goal. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Oct 20, 2016 |
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Oct 20, 2016 20:26
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Fojar38 posted:I know you probably didn't intend it this way but this is the exact same rhetoric you hear from PRC apologists whining that China's neighbours host US bases. "What if China hosted a base in Mexico?!?!?" If China wants to have their own version of the Monroe doctrine, they are welcome to do it. I am pretty sure I know which one external parties will believe will be enforced by military force and which will be enforced by a babies tantrum.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:28
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toasterwarrior posted:It's either horrified at the sheer stupidity of it all or too enamored at the 9B USD to notice that it's a loan. It all depends on this: just how soft are these soft loans? A loan at 0% interest is bascially a gift since you can pay it whenever and wait for inflation to reduce the real value of the loan. A loan at an interest rate lower than what the Philippines has to pay in the bond market is a gift of the difference in interest payments. So how much Duterte actually got for selling out his country depends entirely on the terms of these loan agreements, which I suspect won't be made public for a long time.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:59
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ocrumsprug posted:If China wants to have their own version of the Monroe doctrine, This is exactly what China is up to. It is also why Vietnam is more likely to welcome the US military than the Chinese military. That's not going to happen. But the fact that it's plausible is hilarious. Vietnam distances itself from China because they don't want to be treated as a colony. The Philippine-US relationship has (had?) some tension from the past colonial status. The Philippines never fully distanced themselves for several reasons, some bad, many good. But it has been a slow process meant to cause minimal disruption. But yeah. If Vietnam and the Philippines swap which superpower backs them in an attempt to get more baggage free relationship, I know who's coming out ahead in that deal. Again, not happening, but hilarious how it would work out.
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Oct 20, 2016 21:08
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sincx posted:It all depends on this: just how soft are these soft loans? lol if you think that China gave free money Sinteres posted:As China gets stronger, their opinion on what happens in their part of the world matters a lot more, and it becomes more difficult to introduce new strategic elements in their neighborhood that are contrary to what they'll "allow," at least if we aren't willing to accept some level of risk of blowback. Sure, Mexico won't allow China basing rights, and China's not in a position to exploit them yet if they did, but if a Mexican Duterte suddenly got the idea that he liked China more, there's no way we'd sit there and do nothing while China built up forces in Mexico. Several points: 1) China has probably peaked in how powerful it's going to get. Economically it is at best plateauing and then stagnating and at worst a recession or crash is on the horizon. Militarily their ability to project power is still largely limited to their littoral waters and they still can't build a decent engine worth a drat. Demographically they are already in decline, and that decline is going to get worse and worse with each passing year. 2) Vietnam isn't some sort of weak Puerto Rico. Vietnam is a significant land power in its own right, and the last time the Chinese invaded the Vietnamese handed them their asses. 3) With that in mind, you're significantly overestimating China's position in East Asia. Even if it's "the biggest" regional power, it's surrounded by great powers and middle powers on all sides, with the world's sole superpower backing them up. You seem to think that China has a preponderance of power in its own neighbourhood similar to how the US has in the Western Hemisphere when that's simply not true; the balance of power is tilted so heavily against China that the loving Philippines batting its eyelashes at them is considered a foreign policy coup. If Vietnam decided to give the US full basing rights there isn't a goddamn thing that the Chinese can do aside from try to bully them via trade and bitch and moan about it. The Vietnamese old guard is a far more significant obstacle to US basing rights than China is. Ceiling fan posted:If Vietnam and the Philippines swap which superpower backs them in an attempt to get more baggage free relationship, I know who's coming out ahead in that deal. China is not a superpower.
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Oct 20, 2016 21:11
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fishmech posted:China is not a superpower. Fine. If Vietnam and the Philippines swap which imperialist hegemony backs them (while keeping in mind that China would stongly object to that description as their entire political and cultural system is a revolution against imperialist hegemony) in an attempt to get more baggage free relationship, I know who's coming out ahead in that deal. Again, not happening, but hilarious how it would work out.
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Oct 20, 2016 21:33
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Ceiling fan posted:while keeping in mind that China would stongly object to that description as their entire political and cultural system is a revolution against imperialist hegemony Ok, I'm going to have to call bullshit here. If anything of the last 30 years of Chinese policy has shown us, it's that China desires imperial hegemony. Their treatment of Africa is essentially economic colonialism of a late 19th century flavor, just without the direct military interventions (because they can't project force there). Their efforts in the South China Sea is nothing if not an imperialistic land grab on the bet that none of the other countries will use force to stop them. Sure, communism is touted as the revolt against imperialism, the Man, or what have you, but if you go by the actions of the Chinese leadership, they behave just like you would expect someone trying to build an empire would in the 18th-19th century.
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Oct 20, 2016 22:24
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Fojar38 posted:lol if you think that China gave free money dont really feel like arguing the rest because lol but largess is absolutely part, or was, a part of Chinese diplomacy Griffen posted:Ok, I'm going to have to call bullshit here. If anything of the last 30 years of Chinese policy has shown us, it's that China desires imperial hegemony. Their treatment of Africa is essentially economic colonialism of a late 19th century flavor, just without the direct military interventions (because they can't project force there). Their efforts in the South China Sea is nothing if not an imperialistic land grab on the bet that none of the other countries will use force to stop them. Sure, communism is touted as the revolt against imperialism, the Man, or what have you, but if you go by the actions of the Chinese leadership, they behave just like you would expect someone trying to build an empire would in the 18th-19th century.
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Oct 20, 2016 22:52
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Has there been a large contingent of anti-US sentiment in the Philippines that I've been unaware of prior to Duterte?
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Oct 20, 2016 23:31
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muike posted:Has there been a large contingent of anti-US sentiment in the Philippines that I've been unaware of prior to Duterte? Filipinos generally have loved the US.
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Oct 20, 2016 23:39
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Welp, didn't expect Duerte to go off the deep end like that so quickly, but not surprised really. Nthing what everyone else has said; this is bad for the Phillipines in the long run and meh for the US. The Asia Pivot will be fine, plenty of other nations willing to pony up to the US in exchange for military support and aid, and Duerte is probably going to be unpleasantly surprised when HRC takes office and tells him to kick rocks once he tries to weasel back into the US's good graces. I'm really surprised there's not more uproar from Filipino-Americans or expats here in the States, this sort of diplomatic row could really gently caress a lot of people over if the State Dept decides to play hardball and embarrass Duerte by showing him how small of a player he actually is. Mat Cauthon fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Oct 20, 2016 |
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Oct 20, 2016 23:53
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BarbarianElephant posted:So, uh, no bad feelings then? Vietnam has been a valuable trading partner for the US for years now. Pro-move is the US and Vietnam signing new deals in the wake of this.
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Oct 21, 2016 00:03
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"This'll show those yankee bastards" Duterte said to himself while pouring boiling chinese white tea onto his groin
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Oct 21, 2016 00:09
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muike posted:Has there been a large contingent of anti-US sentiment in the Philippines that I've been unaware of prior to Duterte? Our fringe leftist groups regularly protest "US imperialism", but they're the fringe left, that's what they do. The majority of the country loves the US.
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Oct 21, 2016 01:31
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