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The CNE announced last night that the regional elections that must take place this year given term limits set out in the Constitution won't be happening until at least mid-2017. As far as I can see, the CNE didn't give any kind of explanation for why the elections were delayed. The reason why regional elections must happen this year is exactly the same reason why the US is having a presidential election this year. In the US, the presidential term length is 4 years, which means that Obama can't be in office next year because that would push him into his 5th year in office. It's the same in Venezuela for governors, mayors and state assemblies: four year term lengths. In other words, because the CNE has decided to hold the elections next year, any governor, mayor or state legislator currently in office will serve into an unprecedented 5th year in office. Like I said, the CNE didn't give a reason for the delay, which I think makes the delay's purpose all the more obvious. The PSUV currently controls 20/23 governorships. If the elections were held this year, given the PSUV and Maduro's extreme unpopularity, the PSUV would surely lose a really good chunk of those states. I can't remember if I mentioned this in this thread, but I went to a talk a while ago by an economist and political commentator (Daniel Landsberg Rodriguez). One of the points he made that I thought was really interesting was that Maduro and the PSUV suffer from a kind of blind faith in hope that things will somehow fix themselves if only enough time passes. He says that it looks like a lot of government "planning" is based around oil somehow jumping back up to +$100, and that delaying the referendum works on this same blind faith that somehow a miracle will happen and when the time does come to hold the referendum Maduro will win. This latest CNE decision appears to work off that same kind of blind faith. The PSUV knows it would lose any election held this year, so they're just pushing them further into the future because by then X will have happened and they will end up winning somehow.
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Oct 19, 2016 12:53
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I kinda disagree with that. I think they are just trying to delay their eventual exile in order to steal as much as humanly possible in the meantime.
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Oct 19, 2016 13:05
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Hugoon Chavez posted:I kinda disagree with that. I think they are just trying to delay their eventual exile in order to steal as much as humanly possible in the meantime. Totally! He didn't take it that far, but I'm sure he would agree with you (and I do as well). The PSUV wants to extend this as long as they can (while hoping that a miracle will save them) not because they're concerned in any way with governing, but because they need more time to steal/enjoy their stolen money/avoid arrest.
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Oct 19, 2016 14:42
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If this keeps up, the opposition party is going to start being shunted aside by radicals. They are clearly doing nothing of use for the Venezuelan people.
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Oct 19, 2016 18:53
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Sun Wu Kampf posted:If this keeps up, the opposition party is going to start being shunted aside by radicals. They are clearly doing nothing of use for the Venezuelan people. I'm rather confused as to why this hasn't happened already. There's literally no one around who isn't going hungry and they have a proven record of doing nothing to help.
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Oct 20, 2016 15:14
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This is a breaking story, so apologies in advance if I get anything wrong. It looks like we might be seeing the end of the recall referendum. Courts in Aragua, Carabobo and Bolivar state have just nullified the collection of 1% of signatures in their states. The signatures were collected back in May, and the courts are now just ruling that the collections of those signatures were fraudulent for some reason. The CNE has yet to publicly react to the decisions, but it looks like the decisions might have the effect of either cancelling the effort altogether, or at least forcing the opposition to go back to were they were in May, at least as far as those three states go. It's also not clear if other states will issue their own rulings in the coming hours. EDIT: As if the situation weren't confusing enough, the decision out of Aragua came out of a Penal Tribunal, which as the name suggests is a court that is not tasked with examining electoral matters. There's definitely a bit of a panic right now in the opposition because the announcements from the three states seemed to have been co-ordinated (based only on the fact that the courts issued their rulings within 2-3 hours of each other), plus the fact that Henry Ramos Allup et al. warned two weeks ago that the PSUV's killing blow to the referendum via the courts was imminent. EDIT 2: The decisions were announced by the PSUV governors of each state through Twitter within 34 minutes of each other. EDIT 3: Courts in Monagas and Apure state have now issued identical rulings. The total number of states where the first step of the recall process has been annulled is now five. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Oct 20, 2016 |
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Oct 20, 2016 21:37
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Chuck Boone posted:This is a breaking story, so apologies in advance if I get anything wrong. It looks like we might be seeing the end of the recall referendum. Two thoughts come to mind following these decisions: 1. The PSUV decided to distribute the political cost of forbidding the recall referendum across its members to save their collective asses. 2. The PSUV isn't as unified as we are led to assume, which, while worth imagining, doesn't improve our chances in the short term. That is because, while divided, they will still burn the country down before letting go of power. One aspect that is worth considering is the date of these decisions. The opposition is supposed to call the entire country to sign/protest in a week. As always, the government takes the first step and the opposition must react – past experiences have taught me to not to get my hopes up, but hopefully, I'll be proven wrong.
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Oct 21, 2016 00:01
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Last night I was watching CNN and I saw a clip of some reporter speaking at the UN about the situation in Aleppo and she talked with some lady who still lives there and asked her why she hasn't left the city yet and the lady replied "Why should I leave? This is my home" That's me, I'm that lady, I'm also a loving moron.
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Oct 21, 2016 00:20
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Chuck Boone posted:The CNE has yet to publicly react to the decisions, but it looks like the decisions might have the effect of either cancelling the effort altogether, or at least forcing the opposition to go back to were they were in May, at least as far as those three states go. It's also not clear if other states will issue their own rulings in the coming hours. Why the hell wouldn't the CNE take advantage of this opportunity to kill the effort dead, here and now? Isn't that implicitly why they ruled that the signatures on the original petition could be revoked at any time up to the final referendum? So they could have a backdoor to kill the whole effort as late as the day before the election?
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Oct 21, 2016 00:45
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Why the hell wouldn't the CNE take advantage of this opportunity to kill the effort dead, here and now? Isn't that implicitly why they ruled that the signatures on the original petition could be revoked at any time up to the final referendum? So they could have a backdoor to kill the whole effort as late as the day before the election? Because they want to maintain even the faintest pretense of impartiality. Which is a joke to anyone who spends more than a couple of minutes researching the proceedings. Or at least that's what I would've said if the CNE hadn't suspended the recall indefinitely moments ago due to the recent regional rulings. Everytime you think the Venezuelan government can't jump the shark any further, they throw out a triple backflip just to gently caress with you.
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Oct 21, 2016 00:52
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"Postponed until further notice".
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Oct 21, 2016 01:49
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Of course this "further notice" will never be given. And I bet any attempt to restart the process from scratch will be blocked while this particular attempt is "still pending" because they'll just make up a rule that says "Two groups can't try to recall the same person at the same time. Please contact the leader of the other effort if you want to get involved with their recall effort instead!" Based on how the Amazonas deputy cases just sorta disappeared until it was politically convenient to use the cases to neuter the Assembly, I don't see why the same logic and ruthless bureaucratic memory hole wouldn't be applied here too.
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Oct 21, 2016 02:23
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Of course this "further notice" will never be given. Either way, the prevailing idea was the government would simply postpone the recall until next year when they could remain in power. Now this is a clear sign they won't hold elections again until they see fit to do it. That means we've now officially entered the land of unlawful protest until they're removed from power. The only question is whether the opposition is ready to transition from being a reactionary coalition of parties under an assumed democracy to being a coalition of parties under a full-on dictatorship. We've arguably been in that spot for a while (as far as I'm concerned) but they've stuck to playing by the government's handbook so far. Update: Can we upgrade this title to Venezuela: Now featuring a full-blown dictatorship? Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Oct 21, 2016 |
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Oct 21, 2016 02:29
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So is the OAS going to invoke the Democratic Charter now? ( no loving way)
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Oct 21, 2016 02:39
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Between this and the recent court decision saying the legislature doesn't have to approve the budget anymore, it doesn't seem like there's much of an excuse not to invoke it at this point. I still think some of the onus is on the opposition to stand up and declare Maduro the tyrant that he is if they want the rest of the region to agree though.
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Oct 21, 2016 04:43
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Labradoodle posted:Update: Can we upgrade this title to Venezuela: Now featuring a full-blown dictatorship? Not until the opposition says it is. Individuals in the MUD are saying it already, but I wanna hear it from Chuo Torrealba, I want them to say what we all have known for years. Those who thus far have had their "bozal de arepa" on need to realize that by the time this is over they will have nowhere to go and nothing left to steal, those who aren't in cahoots with the government, need to realize that this is the breaking point, either they are in open rebellion against the government, or they can rot in jail as just another political prisoner as the military dictatorship solidifies their grip. If the MUD refuses to adjust to the times, then the opposition must continue without them.
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Oct 21, 2016 09:26
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I thought I'd heard Torrealba say the D-word before, but a quick Google search came up with nothing. This is what Henry Ramos Allup said this morning: quote:Simply put, there is no rule of law. This is a dictatorship, [which is the] result of a continuous coup d'etat. A democratic government consults the people. A dictatorship runs away from elections. [They've] killed the recall referendum because [this] narco-corrupt government is a dictatorship. One of the most ridiculous things about this is that the decisions yesterday came out of penal tribunals. Penal tribunals do not have the ability to make these kinds of decisions (blanket decisions with state-wide effects on electoral matters). It'd be as if Judge Judy ruled on the constitutionality of a federal law on her show. That's simply not how those courts work. As for the democratic charter/OAS stuff, I think that as long as Almagro is the secretary general, the democratic charter has a chance. The push may have failed earlier, but every decision that the government makes that is like the one yesterday pushes it further and further away from the international community. In other news, a court placed a travel ban on Jesus Torrealba, Henrique Capriles and a couple of other opposition leaders. They are no longer allowed to leave the country. The court did not provide a reason for its ruling. EDIT: What do you all think about Maduro's poorly-timed trip? Cipriano Castro was dictator (1899-1908) who went to France in 1908 to seek medical treatment. His absence was used as an opportunity for Juan Vicente Gomez to launch a coup. Gomez declared himself president and didn't let Castro back into the country. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Oct 21, 2016 |
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Oct 21, 2016 13:24
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Something very important to note that happened simultaneously to several state courts deeming the signature recollection illegal, Manuel Rosales was put on house arrest (He was arrested after returning to the country from his political asylum in Peru), Eveling de Rosales signed a document accepting the 2017 national budget (the one that skipped the National Assembly completely) making her the only opposition governor to do so, and the travel ban noticeably does not include anybody from UNT.  Remember how Timoteo Zambrano was previously accused of secretly negotiating with the government? Well he's also from UNT, and all of the things that are happening related to them are not a coincidence.
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Oct 21, 2016 16:18
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Smart from Rosales really, this is a dictatorship and they're never giving up power.
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Oct 21, 2016 16:30
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The MUD held a press conference yesterday to give their reaction to the recall referendum announcement. Henrique Capriles spoke first. He said that they had planned two protests: one today which he called the "Women's March", and one on Wednesday. The one on Wednesday is called "The Takeover of Venezuela". They want to make it a big one. Capriles said that there'll be demonstrations around the country, but overall he was very vague with details. He said that it would not be like the one on September 1 (which was one of the largest in the country's history). He said that on September 1 they had a clear start-end schedule, but that on Wednesday they wouldn't. He wasn't exactly clear on what this means, but it sounds like he was trying to say "we want you to stay out on the streets for as long as you can". Capriles also dared the government to arrest him. Henry Ramos Allup spoke second. He said that the National Assembly would send a team to the OAS within the next few days to ask Almagro to try to invoke the Inter-American Democratic Charter against Venezuela. Allup said that the government might arrest them all for doing that since they've argued in the past (and will argue again) that going to the OAS like that is treason. Allup pointed out that when Maduro was Minister of Foreign Affairs, he went to the OAS to ask the organization to invoke the Charter against Honduras in 2009. He also said that the reason why the decisions to cancel the referendum came out of regional courts is, as Labradoodle pointed out earlier, because the TSJ and the CNE are "overheated"; that is, they're growing tired of being used on a weekly basis to commit these abuses. I didn't catch the rest of the press conference because I had to go somewhere. As I mentioned earlier, there was quite a bit of vague language used in the press conference. Here are three points that stood out for me:
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Oct 22, 2016 15:53
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Capriles also made several allusions to Maduro's ongoing trip alongside the ruling to "pause" the referendum being grounds for the National Assembly to declare he had abandoned his post. I remember this being discussed as one of the possible methods to get rid of him according to the constitution, but never being taken seriously because it's, well, a last ditch resort really. I thought he was just running his mouth because he was pissed, but Diosdado came out today saying the assembly is really planning on going forward with that plan tomorrow – which I find hard to believe, considering their meek track record. If it does happen, then it would be a symbolic gesture. Maduro is not going to step down because someone asks him nicely, he's not going anywhere until the PSUV decides he's no longer useful. The assembly has already been stripped of its powers, so they might as well go all in on the symbolic measures I guess.
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Oct 22, 2016 19:11
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Now they have diphtheria to worry about, "Caracas, Venezuela – Diphtheria, an extremely contagious disease that has been mostly eradicated worldwide through vaccination, has reappeared in Venezuela. So far it has killed four children. More than 20 cases have been reported in just one month, including those four fatalities in the southern state of Bolivar. In the crisis-stricken South American nation, many of the children don't have access to the DPT vaccine that prevents the centuries-old disease. Caused by the Corynebacterium diphtheriae bacterium, the disease becomes serious if the bacterial toxin enters the bloodstream and spreads through the respiratory tract. It leads to heart failure and neurological illnesses. Even with treatment, death occurs in between 5 and 10 percent of those affected. This week the sense of urgency went up a few notches when a possible case of diphtheria was reported in Caracas’ Military Hospital, considered the country’s best." Why has this happened? Easy, the CIA did it, no seriously, "When last week the Ministry of Health finally made the announcement acknowledging the resurgence of diphtheria, Diosdado Cabello, a prominent Chavista, said Venezuela is the target of a "germ warfare orchestrated by the CIA labs." http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/health/2016/10/21/long-eradicated-diphtheria-reappears-in-venezuela-government-blames-cia/
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Oct 22, 2016 19:14
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Lime Tonics posted:Now they have diphtheria to worry about, does Cabello actualy believe that poo poo? because he is either a piece of poo poo ignorent zealot or a sack of poo poo oppertunist who doesnt give a poo poo that he has helped cause this.
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Oct 22, 2016 19:33
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It’s official: Venezuela is a full-blown dictatorshipquote:All this year, as they trudged through an unprecedented economic implosion, Venezuelans have been gearing up for what was meant to be the defining political event of the year: a referendum on whether to recall our increasingly loathed authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro. The tense buildup suddenly ended Thursday as five separate (and supposedly independent, but c’mon now) lower courts approved injunctions to suspend the recall, closing down Venezuela’s last best hope for a peaceful solution to its long-running political crisis. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/10/21/its-official-venezuela-is-a-dictatorship/?utm_term=.bb45345ce9b7 Luis Almagro already called it a dictatorship, Ramus Allup, Capriles too, etc, so hey that's something.
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Oct 23, 2016 03:06
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The government switching to full-blown repression to stay in power betrays just how weak a position it is now in. The only question is when the opposition is going to wake up and start mass strikes, mass protests, cripple the social order to force change. To any Venezegoons still in country, I'd strongly recommend you make a contingency plan if you haven't already. The government is beginning to finally teeter, and the build up to its fall is going to be an incredible event that is best witnessed from far,far away.
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Oct 23, 2016 14:08
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The National Assembly has just started a session to discuss what has happened over the past week or so. You can watch it live here in Spanish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaZO0CyBdaY (the phrase they're using is "debate over the break in the constitutional thread"). They'are also going to propose filing a case at the International Criminal Court against some judges and CNE rectors who postponed the recall. It looks like the National Assembly might be trying to go out guns blazing... Dapper_Swindler posted:does Cabello actualy believe that poo poo? because he is either a piece of poo poo ignorent zealot or a sack of poo poo oppertunist who doesnt give a poo poo that he has helped cause this. It's the latter. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Oct 23, 2016 |
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Oct 23, 2016 16:11
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Is everything going to change dramatically within a month though? It's a major shock and all, but the country has been bleeding for god knows how long. And even if it is a dictatorship the military is strong and there's the people militia.
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Oct 23, 2016 16:13
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caberham posted:Is everything going to change dramatically within a month though? At some point the military's going to have to decide if they want to continue supporting a failing regime that's becoming an international pariah as the country starves. Without ethnic or religious divisions to divide the military from the people, why would they fire on their hungry countrymen if/when they rise up?
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Oct 23, 2016 16:22
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This is what they've talked about so far:
caberham posted:Is everything going to change dramatically within a month though? I don't know. The net effect that all of this has is that it introduces and incredible amount of uncertainty into the situation. I think anyone who tries to convince you that they know for sure what Venezuela will look like in a month is trying to sell you something.
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Oct 23, 2016 17:04
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Sinteres posted:At some point the military's going to have to decide if they want to continue supporting a failing regime that's becoming an international pariah as the country starves. Without ethnic or religious divisions to divide the military from the people, why would they fire on their hungry countrymen if/when they rise up? Because they're military? It's not exactly uncommon elsewhere so why should it not happen in Venezuela?
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Oct 23, 2016 17:32
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I know MIGF posts some wacky poo poo, but he might have his I Told You So moment when civil war breaks out.
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Oct 23, 2016 18:01
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Sinteres posted:At some point the military's going to have to decide if they want to continue supporting a failing regime that's becoming an international pariah as the country starves. Without ethnic or religious divisions to divide the military from the people, why would they fire on their hungry countrymen if/when they rise up? I've heard it pointed out (I can't remember where - I think it was Henry Ramos Allup) that the absence of the National Guard in the last big protest in Caracas was noticeable. The suggestion at the time was that the National Guard (which is part of the army) was becoming more and more concerned with the fact that it was being used to violently suppress peaceful protests. As a result, this last big protest appears to have seen the National Guard "get the day off". I think the argument has some legs, and we may have seen another version of it last Thursday. Like Allup (and Labradoodle) said then, the fact that the decision to postpone the referendum came from state courts and not the Supreme Court or the CNE (at least directly) is a sign that these institutions are also tired of bearing the brunt of the repression. It's going to be interesting to see if the National Guard shows up in full force on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. As for the hypothetical "would they fire if given the order?", I think we'll have to wait for the opposition to try to march to Miraflores to find out for sure.
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Oct 23, 2016 18:08
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If the Army is already control of the economic apparatus, it might be a smart move to stand back and let the PSUV fall in hopes they can hang on themselves afterwards.
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Oct 23, 2016 18:18
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As per the Caracas Chronicles liveticker:quote:19:30 AN has been breached by government protesters  The livestream currently shows a couple dozen Chavistas outside the AN, no sound though.
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Oct 23, 2016 18:34
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I didn't watch it go down but my aunt is inside the National Assembly. She was watching today's proceedings. She sent me a fairly panicked message saying that a colectivo armado had broken into the assembly floor but I can't tell if anyone was actually armed. The live feed from the National Assembly was showing Jorge Rodriguez (the mayor of the Libertador municipality) apparently pleading with the crowd that had formed on the grounds of the National Assembly to disperse. The crowd appears to have left the grounds, but since the feed is locked on the one camera I'm not sure if they've left altogether or if they've moved to another area. EDIT: Jorge Rodriguez did in fact convince the crowd to move off the grounds, but the crowd is apparently now just waiting outside the main gate presumably waiting for the session to end. The MUD is trying to get the session restarted. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Oct 23, 2016 |
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Oct 23, 2016 18:53
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Chuck Boone posted:I didn't watch it go down but my aunt is inside the National Assembly. She was watching today's proceedings. She sent me a fairly panicked message saying that a colectivo armado had broken into the assembly floor but I can't tell if anyone was actually armed. so whats the crowd there for? I assume the opposition parties are trying whatever means they have left to stop the PSUV? A White Guy posted:The government switching to full-blown repression to stay in power betrays just how weak a position it is now in. The only question is when the opposition is going to wake up and start mass strikes, mass protests, cripple the social order to force change. this. what worries me is if the millitary/chavistas start firing on the crowds when that stuff happens.
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Oct 23, 2016 21:37
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I really recommend all Venegoons to watch Winter on Fire, it shows what we need to do.
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Oct 23, 2016 22:54
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Jerry Cotton posted:Because they're military? It's not exactly uncommon elsewhere so why should it not happen in Venezuela? Mostly because it's difficult for me to imagine this government inspiring loyalty. Venezuela was a functioning democratic country not that long ago, and the people, including those in the military can see how dramatically this government has failed. This isn't North Korea, where the people have been eating poo poo for decades, or even Cuba, which was a dictatorship before Castro. Venezuelans have known freedom, and have known a greater level of prosperity and freedom from hunger, so it's hard for me to imagine the rank and file in the military being enthusiastic about murdering their hungry countrymen. Maybe I'm wrong, but I hope not.
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Oct 24, 2016 00:12
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Considering today's headlines, can I assume that Venezuela is about to internally start a loving war?
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Oct 24, 2016 01:22
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Sinteres posted:Mostly because it's difficult for me to imagine this government inspiring loyalty. Venezuela was a functioning democratic country not that long ago, and the people, including those in the military can see how dramatically this government has failed. This isn't North Korea, where the people have been eating poo poo for decades, or even Cuba, which was a dictatorship before Castro. Venezuelans have known freedom, and have known a greater level of prosperity and freedom from hunger, so it's hard for me to imagine the rank and file in the military being enthusiastic about murdering their hungry countrymen. Maybe I'm wrong, but I hope not. The military might not fire on their countrymen and I don't think the PSUV want to chance the military backing down in the face of a determined mob(then they will have a situation like they had in Ukraine). That wont deter the armed Chavista's who the PSUV direct. The people need to chance finding out how deeply the military is on the PSUV side(if they are your country is screwed anyways). The people need to come out in a force stronger than the Chavista militias but willing to back down if the military comes out in full force(and accept or claim asylum from your new dictatorship). The thing that is different from the Ukrainian revolt is the PSUV Chavista militia's which hold they key to maintaining their power.
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Oct 24, 2016 01:24
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