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Concerning today's developments, I have to say I really hope the opposition stays true to this new commitment of upping the pressure on the PSUV. The PSUV can clearly just come out and flat out ignore the assembly – which is essentially what it already does – but as long as the assembly stays focused on upping the cost internationally and calls for real protests, there should be a turning point. I think the most likely scenario is the PSUV overplaying its hand by upping repression instead of outright ignoring the assembly and letting them carry on symbolically – mix that with constant protests in Western Caracas and at some point, some military fuckwad high-up will pressure the PSUV to drop Maduro to calm things down and get the opposition under control by negotiating. Of course, just losing Maduro is a drop in the ocean. The real problem is going to be dismantling the huge network of corruption established by Chavismo and getting the rest of the crazies off the government, which isn't going to happen until we have real elections again, at which point we should sweep up. Then there's the military. They've let Chavismo run the country into the ground while turning a blind eye because they've been given far too much power and input in governmental issues. Now we have them overseeing key areas such as natural resource extraction and the distribution of basic necessities – stuff they have no issue doing. Even if you take Chavismo away, prying this stuff away from them will be key to rebuilding our economy and they won't let go easily, there's too much money in it. Chavez really couldn't have hosed us over better if he deliberately intended to cripple Venezuela instead of it just being a byproduct of his moronic cult of power.
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Oct 24, 2016 03:13
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The MUD aren't going to pressure anything, they are worthless, if we want a change then it has to come from us the people. The United States, the UN or any other foreign country or organization aren't going to get involved unless there are thousands of deaths anyway and them imposing sanctions on Maduro and his government won't help us get rid of him either. The time of peacefully resolving this situation is over.
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Oct 24, 2016 04:20
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Nelson Bocaranda is suggesting today that Maduro will cut his trip abroad short, return to Venezuela tonight and possibly push to dissolve the National Assembly before it meets tomorrow. Yesterday's parliamentary session was fairly extraordinary, and I'm not even talking about the fact that the building was stormed by government supporters. Maduro trying to finally kill the National Assembly isn't outside the realm of possibility, specially since he's threatened to do it in the past. For anyone wondering about what a flare-up of civil violence might look like, take a look at what happened on the Puente Llaguno [Llaguno Bridge] in Caracas on April 11, 2002. This was the event that saw Chavez temporarily removed from office and then essentially re-instated due to mass pressure from his supporters. I think that there are far fewer people out there willing to take a bullet for Maduro than for Chavez, which I think is part of the reason why everyone in the PSUV appeals to Chavez much more so than Maduro. Everything is "the legacy of Chavez", "the memory of Chavez", etc. Even yesterday at the National Assembly, all of the PSUV deputies had pictures of Chavez on their desks facing the speaker's podium. At one point, an opposition deputy said something like, "I see lots of pictures of Chavez, but not a single picture of Maduro - even you don't want him!". Edit: I forgot to say that Nelson Bocaranda is a very well-known and reputable journalist. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 13:17
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Chuck Boone posted:Nelson Bocaranda is suggesting today that Maduro will cut his trip abroad short, return to Venezuela tonight and possibly push to dissolve the National Assembly before it meets tomorrow. Yesterday's parliamentary session was fairly extraordinary, and I'm not even talking about the fact that the building was stormed by government supporters. I think he might hold off on dissolving the assembly, purely because of the weird news we've been getting all day. First, Maduro met with the Pope who apparently wants the church to mediate, so there's going to be dialogue meeting between the government and opposition the 30th in Margarita. However, it seems this news came as a surprise to pretty much every heavyweight in the opposition. Capriles, Machado, Lopez, and Ledezma all claim they had no information about it before seeing it on the news. So, Torrealba just went ahead and made a call like that on his own? What the hell. We'll have to see what happens in tomorrow's session and during Wednesday's protest to figure out what's really going on right now.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:57
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If the Assemble really has lost all power MUD deputies should resign en masse. After that they can continue to call the government illegitimate, and begin agitating for regime change.
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Oct 24, 2016 22:41
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hypnorotic posted:If the Assemble really has lost all power MUD deputies should resign en masse. After that they can continue to call the government illegitimate, and begin agitating for regime change. Seems like calling for regime change as the assembly would be a stronger message than resigning. They're the legally elected representatives of the people, and should ask the people to enforce their mandate.
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Oct 24, 2016 23:04
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What sort of organized resistance would there be in the event of civil war against Maduro's regime?
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Oct 24, 2016 23:17
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There's not going to be a civil war simply because people here are way too lazy for that.
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Oct 24, 2016 23:49
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El Hefe posted:There's not going to be a civil war simply because people here are way too lazy for that. People are starving. Lazy people and hunger dont mix. The moderatws will be radicalized eventually. Evem the most peaceful people can fast become vicious killers when they cant fufill human need.
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Oct 25, 2016 00:06
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I'm starting to wonder how much longer the military is going to tolerate Maduro and the PSUV. After all, they've pretty much already been handed the keys to the country...
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Oct 25, 2016 00:29
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frankenfreak posted:I'm starting to wonder how much longer the military is going to tolerate Maduro and the PSUV. After all, they've pretty much already been handed the keys to the country... Ruling as an open military dictatorship in the Western hemisphere in 2016 probably wouldn't work out too well for them, especially with oil this cheap. Even the fig leaf of legitimacy that Maduro has is a lot more than the military would have without him. I could see a transitional presidency, but there would basically have to be a promise of elections at some point or Venezuela would become even more of a pariah than it already is.
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Oct 25, 2016 01:04
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Sinteres posted:Ruling as an open military dictatorship in the Western hemisphere in 2016 probably wouldn't work out too well for them, especially with oil this cheap. Even the fig leaf of legitimacy that Maduro has is a lot more than the military would have without him. I could see a transitional presidency, but there would basically have to be a promise of elections at some point or Venezuela would become even more of a pariah than it already is. You don't really need to go the military dictatorship way, which I why I think people who talk about a civil war are way off the mark. The military is already in charge of mineral extraction and the distribution of basic products – why would they want to jeopardize a sweet gig by shooting at protesters? I think it's far more likely that they permit the recall referendum after some protests, but do it next year and try to keep the situation from boiling over in the meantime by some other means. For example, releasing political prisoners, forcing the PSUV to allow the assembly to kind of do its job, but not enough that they dismantle the government, etc. Then they get to pick the next vice president and boom, they've got a new puppet government with a little more legitimacy. Then they maybe permit some sort of peaceful transition later on, as long as they get to keep their spoils. Of course, this is Venezuela, and everyone is crazy, so who the gently caress knows what will actually happen?
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Oct 25, 2016 01:24
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Labradoodle posted:You don't really need to go the military dictatorship way, which I why I think people who talk about a civil war are way off the mark. The military is already in charge of mineral extraction and the distribution of basic products – why would they want to jeopardize a sweet gig by shooting at protesters? I think it's far more likely that they permit the recall referendum after some protests, but do it next year and try to keep the situation from boiling over in the meantime by some other means. For example, releasing political prisoners, forcing the PSUV to allow the assembly to kind of do its job, but not enough that they dismantle the government, etc.
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Oct 25, 2016 02:04
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Flayer posted:The military is not a self aware entity. Who are the individuals in charge of the Venezuelan military at the moment? Knowing who has the power in the army is a better indication of what path the military will take. The head honcho right now is Vladimir Padrino, he's the guy that Maduro invested with basically all the same powers he has. Shortly after his appointment, he got to work by assigning almost 20 generals to oversee the distribution chains of critical goods. I'm going to go out on a limb and say their appointment was a way to buy their loyalty and line everyone's pockets, because they sure as hell can't conjure food or medicine out of thin air. Then we've got a long list of active military in governorships and ministries. They probably carry some weight as well, and who knows if everyone is in line with Padrino, but as long as he's calling the shots he's probably the most powerful man in Venezuela.
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Oct 25, 2016 02:43
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hypnorotic posted:If the Assemble really has lost all power MUD deputies should resign en masse. After that they can continue to call the government illegitimate, and begin agitating for regime change. All that would happen is that Maduro would appoint a couple of dozen yes-men with rubber stamps in their place, and all the former Assemblymen would be arrested and jailed, suffer "accidents", or disappear.
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Oct 25, 2016 06:29
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Labradoodle posted:However, it seems this news came as a surprise to pretty much every heavyweight in the opposition. Capriles, Machado, Lopez, and Ledezma all claim they had no information about it before seeing it on the news. So, Torrealba just went ahead and made a call like that on his own? What the hell. Yeah, this really came out of left field. For those not in the know, the MUD announced yesterday that the Vatican had brokered an agreement for the PSUV and the opposition to sit down and talk on October 30. This came after Maduro made a surprise visit to the Vatican and met with Pope Francis, and the opposition met with an envoy from the Holy See in Caracas. The announcement seems to have caught some opposition leaders by complete surprise. Henrique Capriles, Antonio Ledezma, Maria Corina Machado and Carlos Berrizbeitia all said that they found out about the dialogue on the news. News of the dialogue has rubbed a lot of opposition people the wrong way because no one knows what the conditions for the meeting were, and lots of people are assuming the worst. It's possible that the MUD promised the PSUV to drop X (the referendum, the regional election, a serious campaign of street protests) in order to get to the talks. This is all speculation though, but the general distrust people have for politicians means that this is all in the air until it is proven otherwise. Aside from that, some also believe that the dialogue is just a way for the PSUV to buy itself some more time. Plus, we've tried dialogue before and it didn't work. Back in 2014, after weeks and weeks of deadly protests, the PSUV and the opposition sat down in a televised "dialogue" that last about six hours. Given the situation the country finds itself in today, it's clear that the dialogue didn't accomplish anything. EDIT: Add Henry Ramos Allup and his party (Accion Democratica) to the list of "we find out on TV" people. He has confirmed that neither he nor AD will go to the dialogue. So it'll be Jesus Torrealba (the head of the MUD) dialoguing on behalf of... himself? Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 13:11 on Oct 25, 2016 |
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Oct 25, 2016 13:07
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Sinteres posted:so it's hard for me to imagine the rank and file in the military murdering their countrymen. Maybe I'm wrong, but I hope not. I'm sure a lot of people have been surprised by this. Usually as their last thoughts. (Yes I did remove a few words but I think we can both agree on it not really being important whether you get shot enthusiastically or not.) Joining a military organization is already a moral choice in and of itself. You might not be able to shoot an innocent person even after making that choice. Then again you might and quite many have. And once you get the ball rolling it's easy for others to jump on the bandwagon that the ball magically transformed into I guess. e: The moment you put on a uniform you become part of an us and everyone else will then be them.
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Oct 25, 2016 13:55
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It's about time to fire Chuo Torrealba and remove UNT from the MUD, enough fuckups already.
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Oct 25, 2016 14:09
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Jerry Cotton posted:I'm sure a lot of people have been surprised by this. Usually as their last thoughts. (Yes I did remove a few words but I think we can both agree on it not really being important whether you get shot enthusiastically or not.) Joining a military organization is already a moral choice in and of itself. You might not be able to shoot an innocent person even after making that choice. Then again you might and quite many have. And once you get the ball rolling it's easy for others to jump on the bandwagon that the ball magically transformed into I guess. Most people don't sign up for the military in a democratic country free from ethnic or sectarian strife thinking that them means their own countrymen though. The military knows how hosed the country is, and knows the rest of the hemisphere except for Cuba would turn on their country dramatically if the government started massacring civilians in the streets. Maybe everyone up and down the chain would just follow orders, and obviously there's some risk involved for protesters, but forcing a decision one way or another is the most likely way to get their country back. Easy for me to say as I sit comfortably in the US, sure, but it's not like courageous protests against far more repressive regimes are unheard of.
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Oct 25, 2016 14:39
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Sinteres posted:Most people don't sign up for the military in a democratic country free from ethnic or sectarian strife thinking that them means their own countrymen though. The military knows how hosed the country is, and knows the rest of the hemisphere except for Cuba would turn on their country dramatically if the government started massacring civilians in the streets. Maybe everyone up and down the chain would just follow orders, and obviously there's some risk involved for protesters, but forcing a decision one way or another is the most likely way to get their country back. Easy for me to say as I sit comfortably in the US, sure, but it's not like courageous protests against far more repressive regimes are unheard of. How long can they keep the rank and file fed? If things continue going tits up, it's a matter of time before there isn't enough food to keep soldiers fed, then to me all bets are off. What do you goons think is a good historical analogy to what's going on in VZ right now? I was thinking the Russian Revolution, but there doesn't seem to be an outside party agitating, or an external enemy, so the dynamic is different. maybe the French Revolution, but I don't really know enough about that to say
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Oct 25, 2016 18:23
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It's hard to say, Padrino Lopez held a press conference a couple of hours ago to warn the Assembly to respect the constitution and blah, blah, saying the military is apolitical, while standing in front of a giant painting of Chavez and closing his speech with "Viva Chavez, viva the revolution!". Then Allup called him out on it during today's assembly session and while he was still insulting Padrino, the feed cut away for a cadena nacional. I guess the guy doesn't like getting called on his bullshit on national television. But that pretty much clears how the military high-command feels about the latest developments – they've thrown their lot in with the government. So we'll have to see what happens when massive protests flare up.
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Oct 25, 2016 18:56
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Labradoodle posted:It's hard to say, Padrino Lopez held a press conference a couple of hours ago to warn the Assembly to respect the constitution and blah, blah, saying the military is apolitical, while standing in front of a giant painting of Chavez and closing his speech with "Viva Chavez, viva the revolution!". lotsa dead Venezuelan citizens, would be my guess
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Oct 25, 2016 19:04
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The National Assembly session is being broadcast live here (it's the new National Assembly YouTube Channel).
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Oct 25, 2016 19:08
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gobbagool posted:How long can they keep the rank and file fed? If things continue going tits up, it's a matter of time before there isn't enough food to keep soldiers fed, then to me all bets are off. That's the problem, it will not ever continue to the point where there isn't enough food to keep the soldiers (and their friends and families) fed. There's enough continuous oil money inflow to ride it out while 10-20% of the population slowly starves. The only way anything would happen is if the oil infrastructure is sabotaged (or simply becomes inoperable on its own due to lack of maintenance), because the PDVSA would never be able to fix anything. Even then, it's possible China might send enough maintenance crews to keep the government/army on life support indefinitely while the talented/driven/proactive people leave the country, and the rest starve or throw in their lot with whoever they know in the military. I would have thought that Venezuela would re-invent the concept of planting seeds and waiting for them to grow into food that people can eat ("farming") but it looks like the government is incapable of even activating that, even in a country with one of the world's largest reserves of untapped arable land. Wouldn't this be the loving easiest thing to implement? With all the oil money, you can even import food in the interim unproductive years so you don't have another holodomor, and ideally this would be incentivized since forced farming never worked out anywhere ever. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Oct 25, 2016 |
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Oct 25, 2016 21:38
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Labradoodle posted:It's hard to say, Padrino Lopez held a press conference a couple of hours ago to warn the Assembly to respect the constitution and blah, blah, saying the military is apolitical, while standing in front of a giant painting of Chavez and closing his speech with "Viva Chavez, viva the revolution!".  PSUV members also bring a LGBT flag to their marches but then start beating and stealing from people like we saw in the assault against the national assembly and then Maduro goes on national TV and calls Capriles a human being
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Oct 25, 2016 22:06
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Also the National Assembly just approved to start a political trial against Maduro which is going to start on November 1st. Here's what's going to happen: Maduro is not going to show up and nothing will change so it will be a huge waste of time. Meanwhile OAS members will continue to express their "concerns" over whats happening here.
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Oct 25, 2016 22:30
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The National Assembly agreed yesterday to open a "political trial" against Maduro. The trial - which isn't really a trial - will start on November 1, and Maduro has been summoned to attend the National Assembly on that day. The basis for the "political trial" is found in article 222 of the constitution. This article grants the National Assembly the ability to investigate any "irregularities" with the conduct of a public official's duties. It looks like the National Assembly will formally point out through this forum that Maduro broke the law when he 1) approved/extended the economic emergency decree without input from the legislature, and/or 2) approved the 2017 national budget by decree. If the National Assembly find that a public official has committed irregularities, it can propose to the Citizen Power (a branch of government that I still doubt anyone fully understands) that it investigate the irregularities. If the Citizen Power concurs with the National Assembly, it can ask the Supreme Court to remove the official from office. Because the PSUV controls both the Citizen Power and the Supreme Court, this will never happen. This make this "political trial" a purely symbolic act. As a response to yesterday's announcement from the National Assembly, Maduro called for a meeting of the National Defense Council for today at 11:00 AM. If he's going to dissolve the National Assembly, he might do that at this meeting. Also, there are protests planned for cities all around the country today, including Caracas. The goal of the Caracas protest will be to make it onto the highway that connects the east and west of the city. Henrique Capriles said yesterday that this can't be a "9 to 5 protest", and that people should prepare themselves to be in the streets "for days". Here's the quote that goes along with this picture. It comes from Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino Lopez (centre), and I recommend that we file it under "I can't tell if this is from North Korea on Venezuela". Padrino Lopez said this yesterday: quote:[Maduro] is the constitutional president and the commander-in-chief of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces. [Maduro] has supreme authority in this hierarchy… [Maduro] is the one to whom we reiterate our unconditional loyalty and unbreakable promise to loyally comply with and force the compliance of the supreme law of the Republic.
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Oct 26, 2016 12:57
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nm answered
Goatman Sacks fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Oct 26, 2016 |
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Oct 26, 2016 16:48
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Capriles just announced that the opposition would march on Miraflores on November 3. The MUD is also asking people to stay home on Friday for a national strike. The protest in Caracas is huge, and other cities are seeing large demonstrations as well. From Caracas: https://twitter.com/RevocaloYA/status/791327740184133633
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Oct 26, 2016 18:45
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They won't get anywhere near Miraflores maybe if they had gone there today unannounced but not after you give the government a weeks notice lol.
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Oct 26, 2016 19:17
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El Hefe posted:They won't get anywhere near Miraflores maybe if they had gone there today unannounced but not after you give the government a weeks notice lol. How exactly do you propose they organize a mass protest without letting anyone know?
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Oct 26, 2016 19:26
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By telling people right there and there to go, I'm sure they can afford at least a speakerphone. Instead they say they'll go next week when Maduro will have all the streets closed off with 10000 PNBs.
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Oct 26, 2016 19:32
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There were a few moments when Capriles made the announcement that you could hear the crowd growing really restless, and on at least one occasion some in the crowd starting chanting "Miraflores! Miraflores!". The excuse for not going right now that Capriles gave is that he wants people from the rest of the country to get a chance to make it to Caracas in the next week in order to participate. Also, he attached an ultimatum to the announcement: he wants Maduro to 'restore the constitutional order" in the country, and if he does so by November 3 then the implication is that the march won't happen. This puts the opposition in a tricky spot because what exactly qualifies the restoration of the constitutional order? What if the CNE announces that the recall will happen for sure on February 20 of next year? Is that enough to call of the march? If it's not, what is? I think that as counterproductive as the one-week warning may be, it might have the unintended (or perhaps intended?) consequence of forcing any factions in the military/PSUV to act to remove Maduro before or on next Thursday. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing, since we might end up with some general or, heaven forbid, Diosdado Cabello in Miraflores. The next week is going to be nuts. So much instability.
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Oct 26, 2016 19:37
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I think another aspect of setting the big protest for November 3rd is going through the motions of legality. The assembly can't actually impeach Maduro or remove him from his post without the support of other government bodies, but it can pass moral judgment even if he doesn't attend, which why would he? I'm betting on Tuesday we get a full session roasting Maduro ending with the assembly formally announcing he needs to be removed because he "abandoned his post" as president, or failed to fulfill his duties. Then we march on Miraflores to show that people won't back down until we get him out, either via recall or him stepping down. The strike on Friday is also a good warning, "If you don't take this poo poo seriously, we're going to shut the country down". The country is arguably already at a standstill, so this is more about the opposition flexing their muscles. The only issue that comes to mind is that while you can strike for a day, the entire country can't stop looking for food for more than that. There are lots of people that depend on what they can find from day to day, so this could end up hurting them in the long term. More importantly, this is the one time in recent history where the opposition is taking the ball and swinging for the fences, but I'm concerned about their path moving forward. As Chuck asked earlier, do they back off from the protest to Miraflores if the government announces the 20% phase of the recall? Are they banking on the idea that these moves will make the PSUV throw Maduro to the wolves? I'm not sure what the big picture is, but for now I'm happy they're finally pushing.
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Oct 26, 2016 20:01
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poo poo's going down in Merida, I've got many reports of people getting gunned down by colectivos. Also people are getting really pissed at Chuo Torrealba, there were chants of "Miraflores" as he was speaking about the following actions the MUD would take.
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Oct 26, 2016 20:06
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fnox posted:poo poo's going down in Merida, I've got many reports of people getting gunned down by colectivos. Also, this video from San Cristobal, Tachira state is making the rounds. It shows a young man daring a National Guard soldier to shoot him for being hungry: https://twitter.com/Obeysser/status/791334912985038848 quote:Young Man: I'm hungry. I'm hungry! Are you going to kill me because I'm hungry? Look at me! Hit me with your shield - hit me with your shield! Kill me for being hungry! Shoot me for being hungry! Kill me for being hungry!
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Oct 26, 2016 21:03
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Civil war in 6 months or less. They will start firing at civilians or giving up their weapons.
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Oct 26, 2016 23:10
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LeoMarr posted:Civil war in 6 months or less. They will start firing at civilians or giving up their weapons. this. it sounds like the situation is going downhill fast(faster then normal.)
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Oct 27, 2016 00:48
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My best friend is Venezuelan, living in the South-East end of Caracas. We've been friends for 7 years and I've gotten to see his pictures, videos, and first-hand accounts of a lot of this poo poo over that time. I began following the thread just to help give him insights on things he might not otherwise get there. So thank you all who have been posting all this time with info. He could have left at any point in the last three years. But his dad is dead and mother is rich but refuses to leave Venezuela or let him. He grew up privileged being able to go to a private school, speak English, etc. Every single graduate of his year left the country ages ago and he's the only one left behind thanks to his lovely mom. He's been kidnapped, assaulted, seen fellow students vanish after protests, and all that typical poo poo. But finally, after all this awfulness, he's decided to leave the country by his own means. His breaking point was the outbreak of Diphtheria reported last week that just completely broke him down in sadness for the country. So I'm working towards helping him leave in January and hopefully sorting poo poo out to let him live with me in Canada until he can get his own place and sort his life out. I'm saying all this because despite me not being Venezuelan or having to deal directly with this, I'm just so tired and miserable about the country. I guess I just needed to vent a bit. But I'm astounded how willfully awful the PSUV is and letting citizens die for nothing. I'm glad (as far as I can tell?) almost all Venegoons here have gotten out. It's brutal to leave your country. I've been trying to convince my friend to leave for ages and he too didn't want to leave his home. But I feel like it's finally going to happen and I just needed to express that to someone somewhere who could relate.
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Oct 27, 2016 01:42
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Age of the Atomic Mom posted:I'm saying all this because despite me not being Venezuelan or having to deal directly with this, I'm just so tired and miserable about the country. I guess I just needed to vent a bit. But I'm astounded how willfully awful the PSUV is and letting citizens die for nothing. I'm glad (as far as I can tell?) almost all Venegoons here have gotten out. It's brutal to leave your country. I've been trying to convince my friend to leave for ages and he too didn't want to leave his home. But I feel like it's finally going to happen and I just needed to express that to someone somewhere who could relate. I feel you. All this stuff happening in Venezuela scares the poo poo out of me because I can vividly see it happening here in Brazil as well, and possibly in the near future. Venezuela used to have so much better living conditions than where I live and everything there went to poo poo in a couple of years. It's just terrifying.
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Oct 27, 2016 02:21
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