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priznat
Jul 7, 2009

Let's get drunk and kiss each other all night.
Pic:

Water landing=bad :haw:

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Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Kemper Boyd posted:

One of Galland's issues with the Bf 109 was that it just wasn't as capable in shooting down bombers as the Fw 190, and the Luftwaffels ended up strapping gun pods to 109's to get more guns into it. The MG's didn't do jack against B-17's, it took 20 or preferably 30 mm cannon to shoot them down.

Yeah. The evolving 109 armaments were idea for taking on enemy fighters and light attack aircraft, but something heavier was needed to effectively take out B-17 swarms due to armour plating and engine redundancy. The 110 had (in some varients) a fearsome array of forward firing guns, and even they had trouble taking out US 4 engine bombers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HezICMWc8I

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Blistex posted:

Yeah. The evolving 109 armaments were idea for taking on enemy fighters and light attack aircraft, but something heavier was needed to effectively take out B-17 swarms due to armour plating and engine redundancy. The 110 had (in some varients) a fearsome array of forward firing guns, and even they had trouble taking out US 4 engine bombers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HezICMWc8I

Goddamn the tail gunner and ball turret gunner there had a bad day.

Smiling Jack
Dec 2, 2001

I sucked a dick for bus fare and then I walked home.

Cyrano4747 posted:

Goddamn the tail gunner and ball turret gunner there had a bad day.

quote:

From my mother's sleep I fell into the State,
And I hunched in its belly till my wet fur froze.
Six miles from earth, loosed from its dream of life,
I woke to black flak and the nightmare fighters.
When I died they washed me out of the turret with a hose.

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



Vitamin J posted:

I have a friend who's developing a smartphone targeting app that would be adaptable to any type of mortar you could find. You basically strap the phone or tablet to the mortar tube and input your variables like mortar weight and coefficient of drag, temperature, etc. The system would have a sensor that would measure the projectile velocity as it exited the barrel and use that data for subsequent shots. On top of that it will take inputs from a drone over the target area like wind speed at various altitudes and it would locate impacts on the map for correction. Then the readout on the phone would say move left, right, up, down etc until it turned green, then you shoot again. My friend went to Kurdistan to fight with the Peshmerga last year and brought a home made foamboard flying wing drone. They were severely limited by NATO no-fly orders and friendly Peshmerga trying to shoot it down (haha) but when he was able to get it in the air he flew missions 15-30km away at altitudes of 500m and was able to direct mortar fire onto targets with a lot greater accuracy than they were used to. He said the biggest problem they faced using the drone was that none of the local fighters knew how to even read a map. Map reading seems like such an easy task, but apparently it's not a common skill around those parts.

I certainly don't have any experience with mortars but from what I've read I would imagine the shock of the mortar firing would ruin the attached smart device in short order. Has your friend strapped an iphone to a mortar for 20+ rounds to see if it still works?

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Cyrano4747 posted:

Goddamn the tail gunner and ball turret gunner there had a bad day.

When I was in high school I was reading a pilot's account as a BF-110 (and later ME-410) pilot who mainly intercepted US daylight bombers. He was talking about how his 110 was up-gunned to accept 30mm cannons in the nose, as well as a dual 20mm gun-pod underneath the fuselage. He said since he figured the 30mm rounds had the HE factor taken care of, he'd opt for straight AP and Tracer ammo for the two 20mm cannons, figuring they would be useful for taking out engines and other areas that had some armour. The first time he intercepted a B-17 formation he was coming head on at one and let loose a short burst of 20mm rounds right at the cockpit and circled around for another pass. He watched the B-17 do a slow veer to the side then a dive with no apparent smoke or problems to the aircraft. He watched the bomber eventually go into a critical dive then watched the wings fold and it impact with the ground. Not a single chute opened, and he figured that burst of 20mm AP made it all the way from the front to the back of the bomber and killed everyone inside.

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

Cyrano4747 posted:

Goddamn the tail gunner and ball turret gunner there had a bad day.

Indeed.

It took a lot of fire to take out a Fortress.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Nebakenezzer posted:

Indeed.

It took a lot of fire to take out a Fortress.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Hav-A05CCw

Captain von Trapp
Jan 23, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.
Small cheap drones have gotten really really good, there's no question. But as somebody once said, there's a whole lot going on in air defense artillery (and related). Off the top of my head:

1. EW. The $999 grenade-bearing terror-copter is not equipped to deal with even rudimentary spectrum denial.
2. Tactical radar. It's small, portable, cheap, and very effective.
3. Optical sensors (VIS and IR). Ditto.
4. Actual anti-aircraft artillery is pretty well-suited to killing small slow targets at close range. And you're shooting bullets, which are cheap. Well, a lot cheaper than missiles anyway. The bullets in this nice little German defense contractor promo film are programmable in-flight and detonate just before impact to fill the air with birdshot-esque projectiles. You can buy them now.
5. Lasers. They're still not quite ready for primetime, but basically any of the R&D efforts for C-RAM type missions would also work fine for small drones - especially in view of the fact that ISR optics are very fragile against laser radiation.

While it's always hard to predict how wars will be fought in the future, U.S. infantry fleeing in terror from the manhack menace is will probably remain largely fantasy.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler
It's funny, but the movie Toys predicted the future of drone warfare in a way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuyWXBuOByg&t=3433s

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011

Mr Crustacean posted:

Certainly, cost and weight will increase if you want more features, but bear in mind that this thing is a toy that costs $999 and weighs 750 grams. The fact that it's been possible to miniaturise and reduce the cost so much bodes exceptionally well for the scalability of these devices. If you double the weight and cost in order to harden it, carry a multispectral sensor and a payload, it's still only $2000 and 1.5kg. 

In terms of guidance, absolutely, it will always be difficult to pick up individual soldiers, but there are amazing advances in machine recognition right now, alongside the miniaturisation of sensor technology; you can get a multispectral thermal camera for $250. That's enough to pick up a vehicle's heat signature, correlate it to the optical sensor and then prosecute that target.

There are also a lot of rather vulnerable targets on a battlefield that don't require a large warhead to destroy. If you put an EFP adjacent to a parked aircraft, radar or fuel depot then it may be sufficient. 

For the cost of a thousand bucks you get a realtime 1080p FMV ISR platform with a 7km transmit radius. An autonomously guided hand grenade with a 20km+ strike range. When you put an EFP on them, an infantryman can now kill a vehicle short of a tank with a weapon the size of a hand grenade at 20km+ standoff. Everyone can afford one and operate them en masse, it's cheap, light and small enough to equip every single squad member with and easily enough employed for any idiot to use, right down to the part time Jihadist.

How are you going to run Bagram air base when anyone within 20km of it can send hundreds of these to locate and target your parked aircraft, fuel and ammunition depots, radar and comms antennas? 

How are you going to deal with IEDs that fly around and find you instead of counting on you to roll over them?

Yeah, if you're a military then you have tools to provide you massed fire effects or ISR, that's been a thing since the advent of artillery, radio and aircraft. However, there's an awful lot of tail involved with running an artillery battery or aircraft, traditionally only nation states have been able to run those assets. With the advent of these devices, now anyone can have massed precision fires and they can hold them right in their hand. This is the democratisation of precision strike, anyone can have what was previously exclusively in the arsenal of nation states
I can't tell if English isn't your first language, or if you've just bought fully into Silicon Valley ~*~disruption~*~ fart huffing.

You are looking at a toy. That is the problem. It is a toy. It's like looking at an RC car and wondering why it took Tesla so long to scale it up to a passenger vehicle. The worst case failure state for the manufacturer is having to send the customer a new drone. What are the crosswind limitations of your drone? Does it work in precipitation? In 120 degree heat? In icing? Does it work after extended exposure to dust? Do the sensors? Does the remote? These are all questions that need to be answered before something is adopted as a weapon system.

You can't pin down what it's actually supposed to do, either. One minute you're talking about autonomous killbots, and the next about every lance corporal having a personal ISR platform. These are stupid for different reasons. The latter because of the unaddressed issues with ECM, SHORAD, DF and spectrum crunch. The former because, again, you are describing a system mainly useful for terrorism of civilians and poorly defended targets. There are very few military uses for a system that kills the first person-looking thing it meets in a 10km square. If you want it to do something other than this, the obstacle is not sensor resolution but autonomous target identification/discrimination, a problem which continues to vex the entire research apparatus of the U.S. military.

I get that you have an inexplicable hard-on for drones, but you're retarded if you think this is going to displace conventional fires at any point in the next 50 years.

M_Gargantua posted:


EW capabilities don't stop visual and thermal targeting. And any deployed system isn't going to need to be remotely operated, there is no way to control a bot swarm with any granularity. You're limited to vague statements like: Patrol here, Engage heat signatures in this area, RTB when <20% battery or armament, etc.

Local EW can stop drones from receiving updated commands from remote posts. As for drone to drone communication if you're dumping enough energy into RF to block intra-swarm communications then the system will respond by destroying the jammer. Meanwhile drones, since they have IR cameras, can communicate basic distributed decisions with strobing IR LEDs. You don't need much power or bandwidth to transmit one of a dozen intents to the rest of the swarm. one blink for searching, four for engaging, even adding error correcting hamming code you can transmit a 16 bit packet that has all the information the rest of the swarm needs.

The best defense against drones right now are directed microwave weapons, and it is possible to harden electronics against that to an extent.

Which leads to murder drones block-II: You get a big drone, its got a modern 60mm mortar tube and a dozen smart rounds, which lands and deploys 2k from ground engagement. Its agile, mobile, and can redeploy in minutes if threatened. Its very hard to get enough radiative power with microwaves at 1k, so three cheep drones closes the distance, they either get to the anti-drone system and destroy it or its operators, or the sensor data as they get shot down gives targeting data for our standoff mortar. Alternatively standoff missiles/artillery/whatever. And after that you still have the capability for the swarm to call in indirect fire when the target geometry calls for it.

I think autonomous targeting is much further along then you think?
Oh, well clearly all we need to do is develop a small, disposable, highly maneuverable system capable of instantly tracking and communicating with dozens to hundreds of other elements using a jam-proof and spoof-proof communication system in order to make decisions using complex artificial intelligence. :psyduck:

M_Gargantua posted:


I'm saying we could have that on the ground in six months if we wanted. The technology may not be "mature" but just like self driving cars we can do it today. EW has been used to defeat drone remote control, defeating hardened drones themselves is a much more difficult proposition. And when each drone costs $1000 and a smart weapon to counter one also costs $1000 but can miss now drones are suddenly winning both the war of bodies and the war of cost.
If you actually believe that, I can put you in touch with someone from DARPA. But I think you understand that the problems are more complex than you make them out to be.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Nebakenezzer posted:

Indeed.

It took a lot of fire to take out a Fortress.



Heinz Knokes memoirs are interesting when it comes to this. He basically flew 109s all the time using various models.
One description of when he used 30 mm was saying how it created large holes in a B-17 compared to other guns.
One of the more interesting parts of the book is how they try to develop a formation bombing procedure to drop bombs on bomber formations.
It actually kinda worked as well.

Cat Hatter
Oct 24, 2006

Hatters gonna hat.

Smiling Jack posted:

Just a reminder that the reactivated Iowas were so hosed up that the gun crews were a) loving terrified of the things and b) repeatedly warned that they were going to blow the gently caress up.

The higher ups responded by conducting a firing exercise for a distance record. The turret blew the gently caress up. The Navy blamed it on a gay murder suicide plot by a conveniently dead enlisted man with absolutely zero evidence.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Iowa_turret_explosion

From a while back, but has anyone seen the made for TV movie "A Glimpse of Hell" with James Caan that was made about this? I'm wondering if its any good.

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ4v6wqxWOo

goatsestretchgoals
Jun 4, 2011


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ4v6wqxWOo&t=1144s

food-rf
May 18, 2014
What's with the goofy special effects mixed in with all the cool airplane footage?

Also, working in robotics has made me develop a special hatred for people who gobble up all the autonomous system hype without question. The next AI winter can't come fast enough - I might be unemployed then, but at least the smugness will keep me warm.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

food-rf posted:

What's with the goofy special effects mixed in with all the cool airplane footage?

Because they needed extra footage that'd fill giant screens and this particular IMAX film was shot before 4K GoPros and RED cameras existed which were small enough to mount in fighter cockpits. We're damned lucky we got what little ~actual footage~ that we did, seeing as the primary audience for Red Flag are people who get too winded walking around a climate-controlled museum. Not a very high bar to clear, hence the 90s-looking effects.

At least they didn't use clips from Iron Eagle. I swear the people who own that IP must get a hard-on every time they hear about anyone anywhere needing fighter aircraft footage for a cheap TV show.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 10:40 on Oct 25, 2016

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Blistex posted:

"Corelli Barnett, in Audit of War, ruefully compares the 13,000 man-hours needed to make a Spitfire Mk V airframe with the 4,000 for an Me 109G."
:eyepop:

Apples to oranges, but Panther:M4 is 150 k:10 k

Then there’s the Mosquito:

Hermann Göring posted:

In 1940 I could at least fly as far as Glasgow in most of my aircraft, but not now! It makes me furious when I see the Mosquito. I turn green and yellow with envy. The British, who can afford aluminium better than we can, knock together a beautiful wooden aircraft that every piano factory over there is building, and they give it a speed which they have now increased yet again. What do you make of that? There is nothing the British do not have. They have the geniuses and we have the nincompoops. After the war is over I’m going to buy a British radio set—then at least I’ll own something that has always worked.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Wonder if they let him have that radio.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
For all the people thinking we could have unjammable autonomous murderbots that drop guided mortars on the enemy or engage in smart AI swarm tactics in 6 months if only we shelled out a few tens of thousands of dollars, consider the options:

1. You are a forward-thinking genius who could disrupt the entire military operations paradigm and create a sea change of synergistic capabilities to deep dive and create some very real value added at the end of the day.

2. There are reasons you haven't thought of as to why this isn't already the case.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

aphid_licker posted:

Wonder if they let him have that radio.

Got some bad news for you. . . :(

I've always found Göring to be a fascinating person. You have some of the most idiotic thought processes and statements coming from him one second, then some brilliant and really profound stuff the next. Morphine is a hell of a drug I guess.

About the Battle of Britain:"I considered the attacks on London useless, and I told the Fuhrer again and again that inasmuch as I knew the English people as well as I did my own people, I could never force them to their knees by attacking London. We might be able to subdue the Dutch people by such measures but not the British."

About the defense of the Reich:"No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Goering. You may call me Meyer."

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Blistex posted:

I'm pretty sure it was the other way around, and to a much greater extent since Willy designed the 109 to be as small and easy to produce as possible. If you look at the blueprints of a 109 and compare them to the 190 you'll see that the 109 has an amazingly spartan interior, and makes much better use of stamped materials and shared structures (etc. landing gear/engine mount). The most most widely produced version 109-G was averaging 4000 man hours to produce, and by 1944 was down to 2000 due to the production line being streamlined, while the 190 seems to be cited as being 5,400 man-hours to produce. The 109 was also 1000kg lighter than the 190, so there is that as well. Also the engines used have a huge price difference as well. The Bf-109's 600 series engine was 1/2 to even 1/3rd the cost of the FW-190's 800 series engine. Also your average 109 (the vast majority of which were F-G models) carried 3 guns, while your average 190 carried 6.

Less time to produce (less you have to pay your workers)
Less materials to make an airframe (less you have to buy to make it)
Less expensive engine (less you have to buy it for)
Fewer guns/cannons (less you have to spend on them)

I'm pretty sure this is the reason why Messerschmitt was given the green light to go hog wild and produce as many as he could right up until the end of the world. Pound for pound it was the fastest fighter to build for the cheapest price.

"Corelli Barnett, in Audit of War, ruefully compares the 13,000 man-hours needed to make a Spitfire Mk V airframe with the 4,000 for an Me 109G."
:eyepop:

You could be right - I know the 109K was some sort of industrial miracle variant that took a fraction of the time to manufacture compared to previous variants. That said (and this is from some deep recess in my mind, I could be totally off) that the 190D variant was similarly streamlined, and its cost was pushed way down versus the A variants due to the engine change. So, it showed up well compared to the G variant 109s. I'm also fairly sure that the midwar 190A variants' airframes were less expensive than the 109Fs and early Gs (which were not nearly as streamlined as the later Gs and Ks), but their engines were quite a bit more expensive.

B4Ctom1
Oct 5, 2003

OVERWORKED COCK
Slippery Tilde

Mr Crustacean
May 13, 2009

one (1) robosexual
avatar, as ordered

Dead Reckoning posted:

I can't tell if English isn't your first language, or if you've just bought fully into Silicon Valley ~*~disruption~*~ fart huffing.

You are looking at a toy. That is the problem. It is a toy. It's like looking at an RC car and wondering why it took Tesla so long to scale it up to a passenger vehicle. The worst case failure state for the manufacturer is having to send the customer a new drone. What are the crosswind limitations of your drone? Does it work in precipitation? In 120 degree heat? In icing? Does it work after extended exposure to dust? Do the sensors? Does the remote? These are all questions that need to be answered before something is adopted as a weapon system.

You can't pin down what it's actually supposed to do, either. One minute you're talking about autonomous killbots, and the next about every lance corporal having a personal ISR platform. These are stupid for different reasons. The latter because of the unaddressed issues with ECM, SHORAD, DF and spectrum crunch. The former because, again, you are describing a system mainly useful for terrorism of civilians and poorly defended targets. There are very few military uses for a system that kills the first person-looking thing it meets in a 10km square. If you want it to do something other than this, the obstacle is not sensor resolution but autonomous target identification/discrimination, a problem which continues to vex the entire research apparatus of the U.S. military.

I get that you have an inexplicable hard-on for drones, but you're retarded if you think this is going to displace conventional fires at any point in the next 50 years.


Yes, this is a toy, a consumer grade 750 gram, $1000 dollar piece of plastic. It is what this represents, that every drone made from now on is going to be better than this, from the hobbyist quadcopters to the plastic fixed wing aircraft to the inevitable militarised versions. Better in payload, range, autonomy and sensors.

Everyone can have one of these. Once someone militarises a sufficiently autonomous version that is up to your exacting military standards, everyone will be able to recreate one of those. At first every major nation state absolutely will have the ability to create a sufficiently autonomous quadcopter/fixed wing drone. Then that technology will proliferate, through to the smaller nation states, and then to the non state actors.

What happens when everyone has these and they are cheap enough to target half a dozen to each vehicle?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FukTsKmXOo

The US military may currently have the tools to defeat the hobbyist versions and have tools prepared for the militarised versions, but not everyone has the tools of the US military. Even within NATO, there are those who will be reacting to this quickly and those who will be caught out, never mind the rest of the world and the civilian world.

It may be possible to sanitise the surrounding area around Bagram and have various tools to have a reasonable chance of protecting against raids of dozens these things. But do you think Riyadh or Jakarta or Istanbul international airport will be hardened sufficiently against these, if some non state actor brings a few dozen in the back of a truck?
If someone threatens to strike at all flights from Istanbul airport using these if US aircraft are allowed to conduct combat operations from Incirlik, then do you think Erdogan is going to allow that to continue?

There are consequences of these things that are much greater than their kinetic effects.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

food-rf posted:

What's with the goofy special effects mixed in with all the cool airplane footage?

Also, working in robotics has made me develop a special hatred for people who gobble up all the autonomous system hype without question. The next AI winter can't come fast enough - I might be unemployed then, but at least the smugness will keep me warm.

I remember being very disappointed the AWACS piece was completely fabricated. It's not even filmed in an actual aircraft.

Naramyth
Jan 22, 2009

Australia cares about cunts. Including this one.

Fantastic.

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
Interesting that we just had a discussion regarding the deployment of those $1000 drones. War on the Rocks is a podcast I enjoy listening to and they just posted this:


THE NAVY LITTORALLY HAS A DRONE PROBLEM

quote:


The idea of non-state actors attacking from the sea is not new. We merely have to look at attacks by Somali pirates or Al Qaeda’s attack on USS Cole for historical precedent......drone technological advances that are already on the horizon change the situation by diversifying both the types of threats and weaponry and also places them in the hands of non-state actors.


As discussed by Ulrike Franke, the booby-trapped IED that recently wounded French special operators in Syria showed that low-cost, commercially available, payload-carrying drones are now being weaponized. T.X. Hammesgave a bracing assessment on the “democratization of airpower,” discussing how technologies available to non-state groups could change the character of warfare.  Mark Jacobsen argued that the most dangerous insurgent operated drones will be custom-built rather than purchased “off of the shelf” and adapted from there. As 3D printing technologies advance and become more affordable, they explain, non-state actors will be capable of producing their own deadly drones. However, Hammes and Jacobson attacked the problem largely from the perspective of operations on or over land.  The U.S. Navy must also face this challenge.


...


How might this threat to our maritime assets manifest itself? The littorals will become evermore dangerous.

Looking further into the future, machine learning could allow these drones to identify and select specific targets with little human involvement, which would be critical on long distance raids over the horizon. Jacobsen explained how his team created drones capable of flying up to 80 miles with a two-pound payload or 40 miles with a four-pound payload. This sort of technology would make land-based attacks on naval ships near the coastline possible.

If non-flagged, or deceptively flagged, seemingly benign vessels sail into territorial waters, they can narrow the gap between the drone launch point and their final target. One can imagine a scenario where multiple non-state ships, similar to the “little blue men” of the Chinese Maritime Militia, close with U.S. warships under the protected veil of a civilian craft before launching waves of drones.

If these launching platforms can get close enough to get their drones within range of U.S. forces, their flying IEDs used en masse would present a serious problem for U.S. vessels. U.S. Navy ships are equipped with either the Ship Self-Defense System (SSDS) or Aegis Combat System to defend against airborne missile attacks. Neither system is designed to defeat small, maneuverable drones. That leaves the close-in weapon system (CIWS) as the lone defender of the ship. CIWS identifies, tracks, and neutralizes close airborne contacts that have penetrated the ship’s long-range defenses. If the swarm of attacking drones were numerous enough, it is likely that a few could slip past the CIWS defense bubble. And a few is all it would take to disable a ship or seriously interrupt operations. For instance, drones could be “trained” to hunt and kill — with shrapnel or explosively formed penetrators — the radar, flight deck, bridge, and communications antennae. Even if only one of these targets were hit, the ship would be taken out of the game.

http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/the-navy-litorally-has-a-drone-problem/



I don't know about that 3-D printing bullshit but its an interesting read. 

Akion
May 7, 2006
Grimey Drawer

Waroduce posted:

Interesting that we just had a discussion regarding the deployment of those $1000 drones. War on the Rocks is a podcast I enjoy listening to and they just posted this:


THE NAVY LITTORALLY HAS A DRONE PROBLEM



I don't know about that 3-D printing bullshit but its an interesting read. 

I mean, on a long-enough timeline maybe you could 3D print the whole thing.

In the foreseeable future, you aren't going to be 3D printing sensors, motors, or explosives though. Like Dead Reckoning said above, making something like this "military grade" is a really complex endeavor, but yeah any rear end in a top hat can slap a bit of PETN or something to a DJI phantom and bomb undefended targets I guess. The only real difference between then and now is your drone is going to be getting 72 virgins instead of Habib, and at present Habib is probably more disposable to your run of the mill non-state actor than a $1k drone.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Waroduce posted:

Interesting that we just had a discussion regarding the deployment of those $1000 drones. War on the Rocks is a podcast I enjoy listening to and they just posted this:


THE NAVY LITTORALLY HAS A DRONE PROBLEM



I don't know about that 3-D printing bullshit but its an interesting read. 

See: laser discussion earlier in the thread. Lasers are MADE FOR THIS poo poo

Mazz
Dec 12, 2012

Orion, this is Sperglord Actual.
Come on home.
Yeah, that article kinda handwaves away the problem that small, tiny payload UAVs like that would be completely countered by just a handful more directed energy or high ROF mounts with proximity fusing. They could probably throw together a Bushmaster II add-on mount in like 3 months to counter this if it was a real problem to solve. You would need like hundreds of these to be a considerable threat, and I just don't see that happening without a real concerted effort, which would be effective all of once or twice before the navy plans accordingly.

Also, I would think the navy is pretty well aware of the risk of letting civilian shipping near after the Cole bombing, especially considering THE LITTORALS!!!! pivot they've been running with for a while now. Those "drone launchers" are going to take Mark 46 fire real loving fast if they show any sign of hostility before they "release the swarm".


The better path is just focusing on outranging our lovely SHORAD and guiding larger, scarier projectiles that way. That's the poo poo keeping people awake at night right now. Guns and lasers don't do real well against poo poo 15-20km away, and we don't have much in the way of missiles for that either since it's been a bottom of the list priority for loving ever.

Mazz fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Oct 25, 2016

Akion
May 7, 2006
Grimey Drawer
Yeah. It seems like a lot of these articles like to pretend the US Military is dumb and not paying attention to/investing significant resources in staying ahead of the threat curve. It's like "ONE WEIRD TRICK THE AMERICAN DEVILS DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW!"

I mean, we have loving DARPA building Hypersonic poo poo. You really think we aren't aware of and building counters to the threat of a swarm of cheap drones? I'm guessing if CRAM can take out an inbound mortar, a few of those will probably have no issue engaging your swarm of cheap drones.

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Akion posted:

Yeah. It seems like a lot of these articles like to pretend the US Military is dumb and not paying attention to/investing significant resources in staying ahead of the threat curve. It's like "ONE WEIRD TRICK THE AMERICAN DEVILS DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW!"

I mean, we have loving DARPA building Hypersonic poo poo. You really think we aren't aware of and building counters to the threat of a swarm of cheap drones? I'm guessing if CRAM can take out an inbound mortar, a few of those will probably have no issue engaging your swarm of cheap drones.

Hell even Marines on the deck with shotguns would be pretty effective against it.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

That Works posted:

Hell even Marines on the deck with shotguns would be pretty effective against it.

This, unironically.

Slightly more high tech solution: the XM25, or whatever it becomes, equipped with proximity fused and or guided rounds. It seems kind of ridiculous but it seems to be gaining traction among important people so, here we go.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

That Works posted:

Hell even Marines on the deck with shotguns would be pretty effective against it.

Holy poo poo a real mission for the Marine Corps. Deck defense for naval vessels.





:lol:

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Godholio posted:

Holy poo poo a real mission for the Marine Corps. Deck defense for naval vessels.

:lol:

:captainpop:

Akion
May 7, 2006
Grimey Drawer
I'm picturing a bunch of roided out Marines standing on the deck, dual-weilding AA12s and it's so gloriously American I think I might have an erection.

Somebody Awful
Nov 27, 2011

BORN TO DIE
HAIG IS A FUCK
Kill Em All 1917
I am trench man
410,757,864,530 SHELLS FIRED


Dead Reckoning posted:

I can't tell if English isn't your first language, or if you've just bought fully into Silicon Valley ~*~disruption~*~ fart huffing.

Given you're talking to the king of the PRC dickriders,

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008


i look forward to my tax dollars being spent on specialized "drone shot" that's just buckshot but at 3 times the price.

Doctor Grape Ape
Aug 26, 2005

Dammit Doc, I just bought this for you 3 months ago. Try and keep it around for a bit longer this time.

bewbies posted:

This, unironically.

Slightly more high tech solution: the XM25, or whatever it becomes, equipped with proximity fused and or guided rounds. It seems kind of ridiculous but it seems to be gaining traction among important people so, here we go.

Wouldn't this be the high tech solution: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zX4XXLb_Vuw

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M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Dead Reckoning posted:

I can't tell if English isn't your first language, or *snip*

You are looking at a toy. That is the problem. It is a toy. It's like looking at an RC car and wondering why it took Tesla so long to scale it up to a passenger vehicle. The worst case failure state for the manufacturer is having to send the customer a new drone. What are the crosswind limitations of your drone? Does it work in precipitation? In 120 degree heat? In icing? Does it work after extended exposure to dust? Do the sensors? Does the remote? These are all questions that need to be answered before something is adopted as a weapon system.

The "toy" is a way to prove the conops. You've got an inexpensive high performance drone frame. Your RC car analogy is also nonsense, the RC car came after the passenger vehicle. Development into self driving cars started at the RC level because its inexpensive. Tesla is now using modern tech to add more and more automation to full size and full cost passenger vehicles. The worst case failure state for a combat drone is a friendly fire incident. Autonomous drones put new risks in play because they're smart weapons. No one ever blames the grenade or the gun, but with drones the fault is not longer solely with the operator. However the fidelity of control is something far outclassing anything in the field. Take for example the Mk 48 torpedo, I can't go into specific details of the Mod 7 but its ability to search and auto target are phenomenal while also having very strong logic for zone fencing. The conops is similar, but with more nautical limitation. Drones can follow similar logic "There is an enemy in this area, search and target anything that meets the characteristics of X (eg, a truck, a heat signature with an AK, anything that appears to be a crew served weapons)". This melds the responsibility of the operators with the intelligence of a system that can analyse in-situ. A missile from a drone strike can't abort itself when it notices a bunch of children in its blast radius.

The crosswind limitations are a matter to be determined by design constraints and testing, theres no way to know that ahead of time besides saying they'll be comparable to modern commercial quadrocopters. Water proofing and 120F are mundane requirements. Deicing is another design requirement that you can plan for if you want it, or you can just preheat it and spray it with de-icing solution if youre operating in the arctic. While I'd love to say that the raw heat output of the batteries and engines will keep ice off the important parts thats still something that will be designed for in a final product. The questions you listed are not ones that need to be answered to adopt drones as a weapon system but design requirements when building said drone as a weapon carrying platform.

Dead Reckoning posted:

You can't pin down what it's actually supposed to do, either. One minute you're talking about autonomous killbots, and the next about every lance corporal having a personal ISR platform. These are stupid for different reasons. The latter because of the unaddressed issues with ECM, SHORAD, DF and spectrum crunch. The former because, again, you are describing a system mainly useful for terrorism of civilians and poorly defended targets. There are very few military uses for a system that kills the first person-looking thing it meets in a 10km square. If you want it to do something other than this, the obstacle is not sensor resolution but autonomous target identification/discrimination, a problem which continues to vex the entire research apparatus of the U.S. military.

Me and other posters have all referred to potential roles drones can fill or new potentials they create. Personal ISR platforms are something that are currently deployed as those tiny fixed wing drones. They are becoming cheaper. Just like the leap from the first generation surveillance drones over Afghanistan to our modern armed UAV force once you have eyes on a target why not engage?

ECM is a constantly evolving threat model. There are evolutions in every aspect of Ewar, and there have been huge advances in making antenna arrays which have strongly directional deadspots for the purpose of ignoring ECM. One of the core strategies I am a proponent of is autonomous drone swarms which will logically continue mission or withdraw based on the evolving situation. Drones which rely on thermal and visual in the target space will be incredibly difficult to jam. More to the point, if you suddenly want to start flashbanging drone swarms you might as well be shooting flak into them. There is no financial incentive to deploy costly ECM against cheep drones, and only the developed world have access to high class ECM systems. When a drone swarm is deployed into the battle space they'll have fences around op zones and engagement rules. If they're cut off from their C2 they can determine if the jamming affects their primary mission enough to abort based on the rules they were deployed under. The cost of SHORAD systems needs to drop much lower to make its use against cheep drones cost effective. In this case most anti-drone air defense can also be accomplished by drones.

I do not believe I'm describing a system "useful for terrorism of civilians and poorly defended targets". I'm talking about a system to cheaply augment infantry mobility and leathality. A tiny drone is no match for a heavy armor but its entirely possible for a drone swarm to surprise a motor pool or air field and mission disable the equipment or their crews. Heavy armor in the field is countered by heavy weapons like tanks and helicopters and predator drones. (if you want to put a javelin on a medium drone you can do that too, but that is outside of the envelope of what I support as a use case.)

The issue with prosecuting targets is a matter of fidelity, its very hard to get a positive ID from a high altitude feed. Getting close allows you to correlate multiple variables. Sensor resolution isn't just pixels per inch and your radar return, its the ability to distinguish useful features. Trying to identify an organic shape as a valid target is difficult, but at closer distances you can easily correlate with inorganic shapes like AK's and technicals which don't have the ambiguity of simply personal silhouettes. The difficulty we will face in the future is resolving the granularity of hostiles mixed in with civilians, or in a hostage situation. Swarm drones play to the strength of this by distinguishing targets and close range and hopefully quicker then opposition reaction times can keep up. Unaugmented infantry simply will not be able to the engagement pace of autonomous vehicles.

Dead Reckoning posted:

I get that you have an inexplicable hard-on for drones, but you're *snip again*

Oh, well clearly all we need to do is develop a small, disposable, highly maneuverable system capable of instantly tracking and communicating with dozens to hundreds of other elements using a jam-proof and spoof-proof communication system in order to make decisions using complex artificial intelligence. :psyduck:

If you actually believe that, I can put you in touch with someone from DARPA. But I think you understand that the problems are more complex than you make them out to be.

Besides the unrealistic and unneeded ability to be jam-proof and spoof-proof this is exactly what the current DARPA 3 year challenge is. None of the AI needed is complex either.

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