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Also I voted for Hillary. We're all shocked.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:49
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Night10194 posted:Also, wasn't the original Dem pullout from Florida Sen because of Schumer demanding money for his incredibly safe race in NY? Well the thread loves to poo poo on center-left Dems with conspiracy theories but in this case maybe *gasp* the center-left was right to pull funding to focus on more winnable races in MO, NC and IN! Shocking I know.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:52
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Hey, so I did a bit of searching but haven't found anything. Trump has obviously been saying that abuela should have been "disqualified" from running or "not allowed" to run for a while. Has anyone ever bothered to ask him what part of the constitution or what law deals with disqualifying a presidential candidate?
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Oct 26, 2016 13:55
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axeil posted:Well the thread loves to poo poo on center-left Dems with conspiracy theories but in this case maybe *gasp* the center-left was right to pull funding to focus on more winnable races in MO, NC and IN! Shocking I know. FL was prolly winable, to be honest but at the time polling wasn't as close.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:56
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He's not wrong. Remember, Hillary's approval rating is always a lot lower when she's campaigning for a new job, and a lot higher once she's been in that job a while. She's going to be much more difficult to challenge in 2020.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:56
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peengers posted:In which an attorney general that took a $25k bribe to drop a trump university lawsuit says that trump will be "an excellent role model." "People should act like Trump and give me money."
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Oct 26, 2016 13:57
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JohnCompany posted:Hey, so I did a bit of searching but haven't found anything. Trump has obviously been saying that abuela should have been "disqualified" from running or "not allowed" to run for a while. Has anyone ever bothered to ask him what part of the constitution or what law deals with disqualifying a presidential candidate? it's in the 12th Article of the Constitution duh
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Oct 26, 2016 13:57
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peengers posted:In which an attorney general that took a $25k bribe to drop a trump university lawsuit says that trump will be "an excellent role model." She's right if you look at it from her perspective as a corrupt criminal that works as a government official. Him being president would be a great role models for people aspiring for that.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:58
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Main Paineframe posted:He's not wrong. Remember, Hillary's approval rating is always a lot lower when she's campaigning for a new job, and a lot higher once she's been in that job a while. She's going to be much more difficult to challenge in 2020.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:59
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Islam is the Lite Rock FM posted:Does lead poisoning prevention involve torches and pitchforks outside Snyder's house? If there is any justice, yes. Since the main victims are poor minorities, then no. Trump possibly getting any close vote at this point is more than a little depressing.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:59
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WaPo: gently caress boomers
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Oct 26, 2016 14:03
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I'm about sick of the generational thing being pushed. Are minority boomers voting Trump? White Millennials voted Romney. I think maybe generational divides aren't the reason Trump is where is
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Oct 26, 2016 14:06
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Feinstein and Schumer are basically down the line Democrats. Feinstein, sure. Schumer has to run his foreign policy votes past Netanyahu first.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:07
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HannibalBarca posted:Here's the operative factor IMO: Trump's support among lean-Rs is very elastic, but, ultimately, the gravitational pull of partisan polarization saves him from every gaffe and oppo dump. That's why the "landslide" polls seem to come and go. The counterpoint to that is that 'lean-R' isn't a fixed attribute. It could be that what you are seeing there is weak R-independents adjusting their self-described position towards more pure-independent, which eliminates them from that pool.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:08
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JohnCompany posted:Hey, so I did a bit of searching but haven't found anything. Trump has obviously been saying that abuela should have been "disqualified" from running or "not allowed" to run for a while. Has anyone ever bothered to ask him what part of the constitution or what law deals with disqualifying a presidential candidate? I think the second amendment people know what he's talking about. But seriously, no, because outside of the debates no-one gets to ask Trump anything anymore ever. He only ever does interviews with press who are affiliated with his campaign, he doesn't do town halls, and he doesn't meet with voters. He is completely unwilling to interact with anyone who might question him or his views in any way.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:11
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:FL was prolly winable, to be honest but at the time polling wasn't as close. 538 has consistently had Rubio up by at least 4 points since early August, more like 5-6 most of the time. That's a pretty steep hill to climb. If it had been more fluid I could see a case for continuing to push in that race but the truth is it wasn't looking promising.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:11
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JohnCompany posted:Hey, so I did a bit of searching but haven't found anything. Trump has obviously been saying that abuela should have been "disqualified" from running or "not allowed" to run for a while. Has anyone ever bothered to ask him what part of the constitution or what law deals with disqualifying a presidential candidate? He hasn't held a press conference in like 3 months. How would they ask him?
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Oct 26, 2016 14:12
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Islam is the Lite Rock FM posted:Does lead poisoning prevention involve torches and pitchforks outside Snyder's house? Lead pipes. They have a lil give to them, but they still get the job done.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:12
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Goatman Sacks posted:Feinstein, sure. Schumer has to run his foreign policy votes past Netanyahu first. 
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Oct 26, 2016 14:14
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fosborb posted:He hasn't held a press conference in like 3 months. How would they ask him? Not only that but he's walked out of interviews where he didn't like the line of questioning.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:How'd you go on the propositions? Yes on primaries and access to unaffiliateds (skin in this game since I'm unaffiliated). Yes on euthanasia Yes on ColoradoCare, minimum wage and cigarette taxes. Yes on pot clubs Yes on SFCD No on constitution raising the bar (i'm ok with raising the percentage needed to pass an amendment but not ok with basically being beholden to shitheels on the western slope) No on DPS increases. (DPS for years has been making GBS threads on urban schools when these get passed and just shifting all their money to charter schools to gently caress over the teachers union. As the child of two teachers, gently caress that poo poo.)
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Oct 26, 2016 14:18
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HannibalBarca posted:Remember, parsing cross-tabs lies along the road to madness. If there's one thing years of poker has taught me, it's that probability is a dirty lie and there's no way to measure its accuracy except after the fact I don't actually believe this but god drat if it doesn't seem true sometimes
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Oct 26, 2016 14:20
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"I'm going to give you a completely inapt example but it's PERFECT." - Rudy
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Oct 26, 2016 14:19
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Lol if you think his Iran deal opposition was in the best interest of New York state.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:23
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Just a general poll related question: what happens to pollsters when they are just utterly wrong about some one-off thing of historical importance? Do they just say "oh well, no one could have predicted that anyway" or do they face serious repercussions for their professional life? What happened to all of them who were sure Brexit wouldn't pass?
Samurai Sanders fucked around with this message at 14:26 on Oct 26, 2016 |
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Oct 26, 2016 14:24
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Oh, it's war. https://twitter.com/DeadlineDominic/status/791266831780544512
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Oct 26, 2016 14:25
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Samurai Sanders posted:Just a general poll related question: what happens to pollsters when they are just utterly wrong about some one-off thing of historical importance? Do they just say "oh well, better luck next time" or do they face serious repercussions for their professional life? What happened to all of them who were sure Brexit wouldn't pass? I don't think anyone was sure Brexit wouldn't pass; the polls were always close to the MOE and polling in the UK isn't as good as it is over here.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:26
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Well, Donny's going to be insane about this for awhile.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:26
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Who the gently caress spells hero with a v, gently caress's sake.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:25
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Samurai Sanders posted:Just a general poll related question: what happens to pollsters when they are just utterly wrong about some one-off thing of historical importance? Do they just say "oh well, no one could have predicted that anyway" or do they face serious repercussions for their professional life? What happened to all of them who were sure Brexit wouldn't pass? I know that Gallup hosed up so bad in 2012 that they don't even poll anymore because people wouldn't take them seriously.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:26
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it's been vandalized so much I'm amazed they didn't just remove it temporarily for safekeeping plus he's only ever been a bit player in his roles what the gently caress does he have a star for
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Oct 26, 2016 14:27
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Samurai Sanders posted:Just a general poll related question: what happens to pollsters when they are just utterly wrong about some one-off thing of historical importance? Do they just say "oh well, no one could have predicted that anyway" or do they face serious repercussions for their professional life? What happened to all of them who were sure Brexit wouldn't pass? Brexit polls did NOT say it wouldn't pass, far from it: https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/790638388554661888
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Oct 26, 2016 14:27
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Goatman Sacks posted:Feinstein, sure. Schumer has to run his foreign policy votes past Netanyahu first. (((Schumer)))
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Oct 26, 2016 14:28
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Samurai Sanders posted:Just a general poll related question: what happens to pollsters when they are just utterly wrong about some one-off thing of historical importance? Do they just say "oh well, no one could have predicted that anyway" or do they face serious repercussions for their professional life? What happened to all of them who were sure Brexit wouldn't pass? The only real repercussion is the embarrassment of getting a major election result wrong. Sometimes that leads to changes - for instance, Gallup decided to no longer do national head-to-head polling after blowing the 2012 presidential election. On the other hand, Rasmussen wrongly predicted that Romney would win all the swing states in 2012, and... they're still around.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:29
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There was a private poll conducted just before the vote that suggested a narrow remain win and made the markets celebrate until the votes came in and they panicked like mad. But it was like 'remain will win by .5 or 1%' and given how narrowly Leave won, it was well within MoE. That's what everyone's thinking of with the 'big polling miss'.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:30
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Epic High Five posted:it's been vandalized so much I'm amazed they didn't just remove it temporarily for safekeeping you just have to pay like 30k IIRC
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Oct 26, 2016 14:31
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Samurai Sanders posted:Just a general poll related question: what happens to pollsters when they are just utterly wrong about some one-off thing of historical importance? Do they just say "oh well, no one could have predicted that anyway" or do they face serious repercussions for their professional life? What happened to all of them who were sure Brexit wouldn't pass? Pollsters usually don't have that kind of skin in the game. (Re: "sure it wouldn't pass.) Typically though you go back and see what was different from your model versus what the results were and see if it was indeed a foreseeable error and adjust accordingly, or if it was just something that went wrong. On Brexit, polling showed it was close and punditry generally ignored the polling.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:30
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Oh man. He's gonna flip his wig.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:32
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nachos posted:WaPo: gently caress boomers Oh Dana, you have just jinxed us.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:34
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There are probably worse people with intact stars, but this still is stupidly satisfying
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Oct 26, 2016 14:34
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