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Hillary is probably going to win North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona is an extremely close race. Georgia is the only state I'd really consider a solid stopper for 370. It's well within the realm of possibility that Hillary gets a surprise win in Indiana or Missouri or someplace, though. I don't think I'd put in a bet in either direction on the 370 EV market right now.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:18
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Vox Nihili posted:Yes, it takes about five minutes to get started. Eeek this fees are insane. Let me get this right, If I buy a contract at 50, for $50, and it goes to $100, I'll net $90 and if I want to withdraw, I'll keep only $84.50. That means a contract at 50 is really like 65% at a no fee market. Anyway around the withdrawl fee?
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Oct 24, 2016 21:21
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The "trick" is not to withdraw after only one bet. The winning fee is per bet but the withdrawal fee is not.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:26
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5436 posted:Anyway around the withdrawl fee? Lose all of your money.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:27
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5436 posted:Eeek this fees are insane. Let me get this right, If I buy a contract at 50, for $50, and it goes to $100, I'll net $90 and if I want to withdraw, I'll keep only $84.50. That means a contract at 50 is really like 65% at a no fee market. Anyway around the withdrawl fee? You're mistaken. The 10% fee is only on profit. So in your scenario you'd get $95 after the 10% fee, as it would only be applied to your $50 profit.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:35
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Vox Nihili posted:You're mistaken. The 10% fee is only on profit. So in your scenario you'd get $95 after the 10% fee, as it would only be applied to your $50 profit. Oh okay. I guess I'll take the plunge.
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Oct 24, 2016 21:40
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5436 posted:Oh okay. I guess I'll take the plunge. ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US DONT BET ON POLLS Also keep in mind that the 10% is only on profit but the 5% is on every withdrawal. So to use your example where you buy $50 worth of shares at .50:
Have fun! Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:09 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 22:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Hillary is probably going to win North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona is an extremely close race. Georgia is the only state I'd really consider a solid stopper for 370. It's well within the realm of possibility that Hillary gets a surprise win in Indiana or Missouri or someplace, though. I don't think I'd put in a bet in either direction on the 370 EV market right now. Betting Yes is essentially saying that Hillary can make up 3-4 points in Georgia between now and election day, and at this point, it's hard to see that happening, particularly since she hasn't invested significant resources there. However... Betting No is saying that Trump has found his floor and that there's enough voters in Georgia who will turn out no matter what to win him the state. Given the trend in voter enthusiasm numbers lately, I'd be very concerned that Trump's supporters in rural Georgia just don't show up to the polls and give Hillary a narrow win. I think there's way better bets at roughly the same odds. For example, I'd rather bet on Hillary winning North Carolina, currently at 70c than on Hillary not getting 370 EV at 65c. If it dropped to 50c or lower, I would be tempted to buy in on No, but not at 65c.
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Oct 24, 2016 22:13
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i have no clue what is going on but currently DEM.PREZPARTY.YES is at 83 and REP.PREZPARTY.NO is at 78. I've already got a decent chunk of the NO but I am genuinely considering a max if it goes another cent or two lower. the only thing holding me back at this point is the laughs I'm having at the pro-trump comments reposted ITT and the complete aversion to becoming a 'GOT IT ALL RIDING ON HILLARY, BABY' bettor
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Oct 24, 2016 22:55
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:i have no clue what is going on but currently DEM.PREZPARTY.YES is at 83 and REP.PREZPARTY.NO is at 78. I've already got a decent chunk of the NO but I am genuinely considering a max if it goes another cent or two lower. the only thing holding me back at this point is the laughs I'm having at the pro-trump comments reposted ITT and the complete aversion to becoming a 'GOT IT ALL RIDING ON HILLARY, BABY' bettor Those weird differences in virtually-identical markets occur everywhere but can't be leveraged/arbitraged as much as I wish they could. And did someone want more all-in-on-trump brags right before the debates? quote:I got 8k on trump at +320 odds which is like 80% of my net worth quote:$3,000 here on Trump shares. I've maxed out Trump as Pres, Pence as VP, a Repub winning the White House, and NO to a woman being Pres. quote:Got a few thousand down on various things there - primarily Trump winning things, Hillary losing things, and the Trump vs. Clinton polls. DMCrimson has issued a correction as of 23:42 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 23:33
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George Soros is manipulating the markets in Hillary's favor everyone bet the house on Trump #maga https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/517yy5/george_soros_is_paying_shills_to_manipulate/
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Oct 24, 2016 23:49
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for those of you too lazy to clickquote:Good thing I own 1200 shares for trump at 25 cents a share. Winning big in November!
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Oct 25, 2016 00:11
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Anyone have any insight into what's up in this market? B3 shot up huge today since the RCP average is at 29.0%, but I see in the comments people talking about "will they fix their mistake today??" https://www.predictit.org/Market/2625/What-will-Right-Direction-poll-at-on-October-24 Looks like the Economist/YouGov poll that RCP is linking to that they have in their average at 31% actually says 28%. Is that what they're talking about? Don't bet on polls. Edit: And RCP just updated and it flipped from B4 at 15c to B4 at 99c before I could get in and buy any. Boo. Edit2: So all RCP did is drop off the oldest poll. They still have the one where the actual poll is at 28 in their average as 31. BCRock has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Oct 25, 2016 |
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Oct 25, 2016 00:38
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LinYutang posted:George Soros is manipulating the markets in Hillary's favor everyone bet the house on Trump #maga https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/517yy5/george_soros_is_paying_shills_to_manipulate/ Now I'm wondering how much of this is sincere and how much of it is shitposters trying to rile up more cards to bilk
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Oct 25, 2016 05:00
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lmao 
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Oct 26, 2016 00:16
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Nirvikalpa posted:lmao oof It's a real shame I have things like 'self control' and 'doubt' and am not willing to squeeze any more money out of these guys
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Oct 26, 2016 00:37
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Really can't believe that guy is for real. Probably just messing around the developer tools to gently caress with people
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Oct 26, 2016 00:57
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LinYutang posted:Really can't believe that guy is for real. Probably just messing around the developer tools to gently caress with people It's in an image. It has to be true. 
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Oct 26, 2016 00:58
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The polling markets have a legit tarot card reader in the comments now. Feels about right, honestly.
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Oct 26, 2016 01:08
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Oct 26, 2016 01:22
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same
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Oct 26, 2016 01:23
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big, if true
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Oct 26, 2016 01:25
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how did you get my gain/loss bar???
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Oct 26, 2016 01:35
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Oct 26, 2016 02:11
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The urge to set up a fake Trump-pump account on Reddit is getting tougher to resist.
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Oct 26, 2016 03:54
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Vox Nihili posted:The urge to set up a fake Trump-pump account on Reddit is getting tougher to resist. Would you really have that much of an impact on them at this point? They seem to be handling it just fine on their own
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Oct 26, 2016 04:04
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Trump got his first positive Florida poll in a while (+1 lol) and the Florida market has tanked, if anyone's confident in the state going Dem.
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Oct 26, 2016 13:54
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I did, in fact, have money burning a hole in my pocket. Thanks for the tip.
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Oct 26, 2016 14:05
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Bought all the 63 cent Florida republican nos and then 500 republican nos at 79 cents for the nationwide cause I deposited to much and I am an impatient babby
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Oct 26, 2016 16:04
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What's the deal with NE-2? It is rated as safe Trump in the RCP average (based on one poll from what I can tell) but a tossup in PredictIT. Seems like the safest way to double your money right now. https://www.predictit.org/Market/2402/Which-party-will-win-the-electoral-vote-from-Nebraska
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Oct 26, 2016 17:30
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What's the deal with NE-2? It is rated as safe Trump in the RCP average (based on one poll from what I can tell) but a tossup in PredictIT. Seems like the safest way to double your money right now. 538 has NE-2 as nearly a 50/50 based on that same poll, probably because it's a month old, and from before a huge swing towards clinton, so I guess "who knows what might have changed". Guess that's a good illustration of how 538 leans into uncertainty differently than other aggregators. NE-2 is the district that went for Obama, but I think that was before some redistricting tried to make it safe red again. Ditocoaf has issued a correction as of 18:29 on Oct 26, 2016 |
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Oct 26, 2016 18:26
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This should be a useful tool for election day: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jKcY2Lu45iI1foalRyQfJdOsWyFNNqr8skQ_0d2abGI/edit#gid=0
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Oct 26, 2016 20:29
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Nice. Thanks for sharing that. Today's TvC market has been fun. Got in on cheap B5 shares this morning and just got out at 75c so I can stop the constant refreshing and actually get some poo poo done today.
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Oct 26, 2016 21:33
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quote:box4 • 10 hours ago
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Oct 27, 2016 00:16
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I'm minutes away from pumping some more money into the market now that GOP.NO is sub 80 again. are there any bonuses or promotions I should be aware of?
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Oct 27, 2016 00:17
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:I'm minutes away from pumping some more money into the market now that GOP.NO is sub 80 again. are there any bonuses or promotions I should be aware of? They're only for first-time depositors nowadays
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Oct 27, 2016 00:19
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New markets: Who will be New Zealand's Labour Party Leader at the end of 2017? NZ National Party leader? Who will win the 2017 Ecuadorian presidential election?
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Oct 27, 2016 01:36
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Florida shares are pretty low https://www.predictit.org/Market/2103/Which-party-will-win-Florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election
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Oct 27, 2016 15:01
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It is almost like there is a constant amount of advertising convincing people that Trump is going to win with no logical basis.
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Oct 27, 2016 15:35
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I bought up a bunch of Florida right before that poll came out that completely tanked it. Really bummed about that.
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Oct 27, 2016 15:54
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