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I find their commitment is more to the tune of not having 20 million brainwashed (By which I mean brainwashed by somebody other than the CPC) starving and uneducated peasants suddenly trying to shove into Liaoning Province. I mean, it's China, they'd shoot them dead in the Yalu river if they thought no-one was watching, but it's still less preferable than the current stasis.
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Sep 21, 2016 06:53
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ModernMajorGeneral posted:I find it increasingly hard to understand China's commitment to NK. Whilst the two reasons they give for backing the regime still make sense (not wanting a US ally/troops on their border + masses of refugees and instability) in the worst-case scenario (nuclear war on the peninsula) and the second worst (conventional) both the US regional presence and the instability will be 1000x worse than a 'peaceful' collapse of NK. Obviously NK is a large part of what drives SK to the US orbit and even now SK is way more important to China economically and culturally than NK. The US itself has a long history of supporting unstable/unreliable regimes known for major human rights violations, for purely geopolitical reasons. I don't think continued Chinese support in this case is that strange. It's all about maintaining spheres of influence.
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Sep 21, 2016 07:03
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Phlegmish posted:The US itself has a long history of supporting unstable/unreliable regimes known for major human rights violations, for purely geopolitical reasons. I don't think continued Chinese support in this case is that strange. It's all about maintaining spheres of influence. North Korea LITERALLY borders China - for all that China is supporting assholes, they'd rather have a quasi-functional North Korean state than a failed-state disaster on a border they ALREADY have to police the hell out of. Edit: MMG covered it, I suppose. I disagree with him that anything meaningful has changed lately.
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Sep 21, 2016 07:07
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Also, I think it needs to be said at this point, a full conventional war is a very remote to non-existent possibility at this point. North Korea knows its conventional military can't launch an offensive, and the US and South Korea weren't interested in invading NK in the first place. A now semi-capable NK nuclear program moves the entire issue from remote to pretty much near impossible. Also a "random" NK launch in all likelihood isn't very likely, Kim and his generals know the repercussions. If anything China seems to have quietly allowed the North Korean program to continue because it is useful to them. First, they know the regime isn't going to switch sides and is economically reliant on them. Second, a capable nuclear program (as stated above) makes a conventional invasion of North Korea itself is impossible. North Korea needs to defend itself (I say this in only a geopolitical sense) to be useful for them. Remember China is an authoritarian expansionist power in its own right, and North Korea pins down South Korean and American forces and resources. (China and the US are slowly but surely coming to ahead over the issue of the South China Seas and we may see a 1900-style naval race.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Sep 21, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2016 07:22
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A lot of posters itt seem to think that Kim/the generals would like nothing more than to push the button or sell it off to people who would, regardless of how dumb that is. In my view, neither nuclear or conventional confrontation will happen, both NK and the international community has more to gain by pretending it will.
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Sep 21, 2016 08:24
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At my neighborhoods' last gathering of middle age white men to watch the Big Football Game, it was Widely Agreed that North Korea was a grave threat, and that if we didn't pre-emptively Take Them Out Now, it was only A Matter Of Time before that Crazy Guy wiped out New York, LA, and Topeka with a surprise attack. I tried to explain the tenuous nature of NK's nuclear capabilities, and the risk to SK civilians near the border if the West were to launch an attack, and the fact that nobody wants to deal with millions of impoverished NK refugees. But my companions were not persuaded. What is the best argument against making a strike against NK nuclear facilities and ballistic-missile-related sites? Even I'm getting tired of NK's poo poo.
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Sep 22, 2016 06:52
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Bush Jr tried that around 2003.
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Sep 22, 2016 06:57
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Number_6 posted:At my neighborhoods' last gathering of middle age white men to watch the Big Football Game, it was Widely Agreed that North Korea was a grave threat, and that if we didn't pre-emptively Take Them Out Now, it was only A Matter Of Time before that Crazy Guy wiped out New York, LA, and Topeka with a surprise attack. I tried to explain the tenuous nature of NK's nuclear capabilities, and the risk to SK civilians near the border if the West were to launch an attack, and the fact that nobody wants to deal with millions of impoverished NK refugees. But my companions were not persuaded. What is the best argument against making a strike against NK nuclear facilities and ballistic-missile-related sites? Even I'm getting tired of NK's poo poo. It's hard, the west is tired of war, we place Japan and SK at relatively great risk compared to the status quo( their nukes are lovely+they're not going to use them).
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Sep 22, 2016 06:58
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North Korea has just tested a large and powerful new rocket engine. Probably not intended for their ICBM programme - actually too powerful for those, but maybe a new space launch vehicle. Perhaps for their intended moonshot. (Yes, North Korea plans to land..something on the moon in the next ten years) http://38north.org/2016/09/jschilling092116/ quote:Regardless, we can tell that the engine is substantially larger and more powerful than anything North Korea has tested before, even than the new ICBM engine tested in April, and the thrust may well be in the range of 160,000 pounds or 80,000 kilograms force.
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Sep 22, 2016 12:38
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Number_6 posted:At my neighborhoods' last gathering of middle age white men to watch the Big Football Game, it was Widely Agreed that North Korea was a grave threat, and that if we didn't pre-emptively Take Them Out Now, it was only A Matter Of Time before that Crazy Guy wiped out New York, LA, and Topeka with a surprise attack. I tried to explain the tenuous nature of NK's nuclear capabilities, and the risk to SK civilians near the border if the West were to launch an attack, and the fact that nobody wants to deal with millions of impoverished NK refugees. But my companions were not persuaded. What is the best argument against making a strike against NK nuclear facilities and ballistic-missile-related sites? Even I'm getting tired of NK's poo poo. It sounds like a great way to stir up a whole pile of potential trouble in East Asia, pissing off China and increasing defense demands from Japan and South Korea, in exchange for maybe delaying North Korea's program for a couple of years and tripling the amount of funding, effort, and Chinese support going toward North Korean nukes. Limited airstrikes are a fever dream that are unlikely to have a meaningful positive impact, while having serious diplomatic consequences and completely vindicating the North Korean rhetoric.
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Sep 22, 2016 15:07
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Number_6 posted:At my neighborhoods' last gathering of middle age white men to watch the Big Football Game, it was Widely Agreed that North Korea was a grave threat, and that if we didn't pre-emptively Take Them Out Now, it was only A Matter Of Time before that Crazy Guy wiped out New York, LA, and Topeka with a surprise attack. I tried to explain the tenuous nature of NK's nuclear capabilities, and the risk to SK civilians near the border if the West were to launch an attack, and the fact that nobody wants to deal with millions of impoverished NK refugees. But my companions were not persuaded. What is the best argument against making a strike against NK nuclear facilities and ballistic-missile-related sites? Even I'm getting tired of NK's poo poo. I mean the big one is that any hot war action there is going to plunge the world into an immediate recession, so nobody wants to do that. Technically a lot of NKs nuclear development sites are waaaay underground under very very hard rock. They are very good at putting things under ground and it's the one thing they get contracted out to do in other countries besides guns, drugs, and cheap labor.
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Sep 22, 2016 16:25
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mediadave posted:North Korea has just tested a large and powerful new rocket engine. Probably not intended for their ICBM programme - actually too powerful for those, but maybe a new space launch vehicle. Perhaps for their intended moonshot. (Yes, North Korea plans to land..something on the moon in the next ten years) We can't let the Juche take over the Moon or Mars. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6BaujmeF_4
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Sep 22, 2016 16:35
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WarpedNaba posted:I find their commitment is more to the tune of not having 20 million brainwashed (By which I mean brainwashed by somebody other than the CPC) starving and uneducated peasants suddenly trying to shove into Liaoning Province. They'd shoot the men and marry the women. Uncle Jam posted:
This is why Obama decided against a no first use policy, and why he supports developing new warheads and delivery systems. Nuclear bunker busters would be the only way to get at these sites.
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Sep 22, 2016 23:17
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mediadave posted:North Korea has just tested a large and powerful new rocket engine. Probably not intended for their ICBM programme - actually too powerful for those, but maybe a new space launch vehicle. Perhaps for their intended moonshot. (Yes, North Korea plans to land..something on the moon in the next ten years) Betting they're going to build a mega-rocket and launch that unfinished hotel to the moon. Truly, a shining representation of the Juche ideal!
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Sep 23, 2016 04:11
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Number_6 posted:What is the best argument against making a strike against NK nuclear facilities and ballistic-missile-related sites? Even I'm getting tired of NK's poo poo. You covered all the simple arguments. If you are looking for another one with that gang, let them know the military recently used up all the career and young recruits, for some reason. So we are going to have to draft Number_6 posted:middle age white men for the first wave of shock troops into that loving hellhole, and good luck to them.
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Sep 23, 2016 20:39
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Why does a overly larger rocket motor imply that the intention isn't for lobbing nukes? Wouldn't it mean you could build the rocket and the warhead to looser tolerances and be more reliable?
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Sep 24, 2016 19:30
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The larger and more complex you make your rocket, the MORE unreliable it gets unless its designed to lower tolerances, and therefore a greatly increased cost. A large rocket motor also implies that if they were to use it to carry a nuclear payload the device would be deployed into orbit, contravening the Outer Space Treaty's ban on putting weapons into orbit. This would allow theoretically allow them to put a nuke anywhere in the world, but North Korea is a party to the OST, so it'd be a huge kerfuffle.
Jaramin fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Sep 24, 2016 |
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Sep 24, 2016 19:41
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Unsurprisingly, North Korean residents don't care about the Nuke tests. https://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/report/nk-korea-flood-damage-nuclear-test/ Also, the authorities are trying to charge 50yuan per household to repair flood damage.
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Oct 4, 2016 11:12
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Something's fishy at the Blue House... http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/world/asia/south-korea-choi-soon-sil.html
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Oct 28, 2016 04:50
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Negrostrike posted:Something's fishy at the Blue House... The government is melting down like you wouldn't believe. The country has basically been ruled for the past four years by President Park's friend who sunk her claws into her 30 years ago by convincing her that she could channel the spirit of her dead mother. Nancy Reagen, eat your heart out, this poo poo is crazy! The country is going nuts over this. The media is throwing around accusations that this cult leader was basically running Park’s flagship culture program and in charge of hundreds of millions in spending, and that's the tip of the iceberg. She's apparently had access to all classified documents. These rumors were always there since the 80s but no one believed. It's like America waking up to find out that Obama really was a secret Muslim all along, or the Labour party discovering that Harold Wilson really was a Soviet spy.
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Oct 28, 2016 10:29
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Canada was secretly advised by a Ouija board during World War 2, so I'd say going the Rasputin route at least has a real person involved feeding you bullshit advice.
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Oct 28, 2016 14:32
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Charlz Guybon posted:The government is melting down like you wouldn't believe. The country has basically been ruled for the past four years by President Park's friend who sunk her claws into her 30 years ago by convincing her that she could channel the spirit of her dead mother. Nancy Reagen, eat your heart out, this poo poo is crazy! the only thing I'm going off of is reddit right now and they are saying this is huger than watergate I only have a vague inkling of how SK politics work, were there any particular decisions besides being cozy with businesses that this lead to?
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Oct 29, 2016 14:04
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Alan Smithee posted:the only thing I'm going off of is reddit right now and they are saying this is huger than watergate Apparently she was backseating the presidency in literally every aspect. There's video of her ordering around presidential aides, this is nuts.
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Oct 29, 2016 14:20
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This seems pretty crazy, I'm surprised the BBC headline just talks about pressure on the president to quit rather than the ridiculous (alleged) occult conspiracy poo poo causing said pressure in the first place.
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Oct 29, 2016 14:24
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Insurrectionist posted:This seems pretty crazy, I'm surprised the BBC headline just talks about pressure on the president to quit rather than the ridiculous (alleged) occult conspiracy poo poo causing said pressure in the first place. Is it ridiculous? Asking in earnest. The NY Times Article says: "In a 2007 diplomatic cable made public through WikiLeaks, the American Embassy in Seoul reported rumors that Mr. Choi “had complete control over Park’s body and soul during her formative years and that his children accumulated enormous wealth as a result.” I mean, that's a bona-fide cult leader with (apparently?) a huge amount of influence on the president of a country. edit: Man, Korea seems to have some big problems with cults. The Sewol ferry sinking where hundreds of children died was also linked to a cult leader.
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Oct 29, 2016 15:38
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Bluedeanie posted:Canada was secretly advised by a Ouija board during World War 2, so I'd say going the Rasputin route at least has a real person involved feeding you bullshit advice. Nah, a mystical process that is mostly confirmation bias towards what you were going to do anyway is definitely better than being manipulated by a corrupt lunatic with their own selfish motives.
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Oct 29, 2016 16:56
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Ceramic Shot posted:Is it ridiculous? Asking in earnest.
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Oct 29, 2016 17:13
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Charlz Guybon posted:The government is melting down like you wouldn't believe. The country has basically been ruled for the past four years by President Park's friend who sunk her claws into her 30 years ago by convincing her that she could channel the spirit of her dead mother. Nancy Reagen, eat your heart out, this poo poo is crazy! So what happens now? I assume both there asses are grass.
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Oct 29, 2016 17:44
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Why would it be the Catholic minority instead of the much larger chunk of Protestants there are there? But no, I doubt it's that (other than that Christianity becoming so rapidly dominant in Korea is symptomatic of the same thing), it's just that Koreans eat up cults like crazy for some reason. Also you can't really blame Sewol on some cult-conspiracy, it was just blind greed and incompetence. The cult stuff was just a coincidence.
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Oct 29, 2016 17:47
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Grouchio posted:Is the cult problem in South Korea linked to it's large Catholic minority? Or from traditional folk religions? Or neither? Choi Soon-sil, the sort of alleged evil vizier in question, is the daughter of this dude, a deceased former cult leader claiming to be the future Buddha --> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Tae-min With half a dozen marriages and at least as many aliases, you can sort of bet the guy was a ruthless charismatic fuckhead. Soon-sil's daughter was also in Olympic dressage (lol go figure). I lived and worked in Korea for several years but I can only conjecture as to what the reason for powerful cults is. I'd venture that the Confucian hierarchical stuff has something to do with it. I think Korea is also classified as a high "power distance" country, meaning they're more accepting of power differences and authority figures. The US and UK are low power distance countries but obviously there are cults there too; but I still would guess there might be a connection there. Man, what a wave of vindication conspiracy theorists and paranoids must be having! edit: Also sorry, I didn't mean to imply that the connection between Sewol and the cult leader was causal, just that it was a thing. He also died under somewhat shady circumstances as I recall. Ceramic Shot fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Oct 29, 2016 |
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Oct 29, 2016 18:02
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Seems like a similar scenario to bubble-era Japan (late 80s) when cults like Aum Shinrikyo were all the rage. Country achieves relative economical stability, becomes "first world", lots of upper-middle class people seeking for some spiritual purpose in the middle of material richness or some crap like that. We all know how it ends up, don't we?
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Oct 29, 2016 18:05
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Halloween Jack posted:being manipulated by a corrupt lunatic with their own selfish motives. The important thing is: can Boney M make a catchy song about it?
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Oct 29, 2016 18:19
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I heard about this last night from my friend but then he added on international conspiracy stuff like how Choi is a member of a secret group of 8 who are all controlling puppet governments in and around Asia and then George Soros is involved etc  Story is crazy enough as it is from that NYT article.
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Oct 29, 2016 18:34
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Negrostrike posted:Seems like a similar scenario to bubble-era Japan (late 80s) when cults like Aum Shinrikyo were all the rage. Country achieves relative economical stability, becomes "first world", lots of upper-middle class people seeking for some spiritual purpose in the middle of material richness or some crap like that. Harumageddon is happening now.
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Oct 29, 2016 19:12
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Tir McDohl posted:I heard about this last night from my friend but then he added on international conspiracy stuff like how Choi is a member of a secret group of 8 who are all controlling puppet governments in and around Asia and then George Soros is involved etc thats the amusing thing about how conspiracy stuff. I can totally believe the poo poo about Choi being the power behind the throne and having a ton of bullshit pull in government and is using it to her cults advantage. but conspiracy people have to believe everything is grand overarching narrative like its an anime or airport fiction. everyone wants their own pet conspiracy lumped in with it.
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Oct 29, 2016 19:48
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Negrostrike posted:Seems like a similar scenario to bubble-era Japan (late 80s) when cults like Aum Shinrikyo were all the rage. Country achieves relative economical stability, becomes "first world", lots of upper-middle class people seeking for some spiritual purpose in the middle of material richness or some crap like that. Sarin in the Subways?
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Oct 29, 2016 22:38
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drat now I need to get a good book on South Korea's religious clusterfuck...
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Oct 30, 2016 01:24
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Looking at this, it makes a bit more sense why North Korea is basically, "no, you guys aren't allowed to have religions, this can't end well."
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Oct 30, 2016 03:13
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Grouchio posted:drat now I need to get a good book on South Korea's religious clusterfuck... The little I know about South Korean religious beliefs is that they are syncretic: you have someone who goes to (protestant) church every sunday, but will also hire a traditional shaman to advise them on the most auspicious day to start a new business venture. I think you'll also go to a shaman to ask what you should name your kid, and then they'll give you a shortlist of suitably fortunate names for you to pick from; just the kind of religious practices that advise you to do things in your life in a particular way for them to go well. I don't know how joining honest-to-god cults comes into the mix, but in Korean culture it's certainly plausible to me that a spiritual advisor could hold a lot of influence over a politician's actions, especially if they've been friends for years too. Kinda nuts that it was the president though! If you want to get an introduction to contemporary South Korea (including its religious communities and practices) I recommend Korea: The Impossible Country by Daniel Tudor. It goes through the history of the country and then just takes a look at all the different parts of South Korean culture and society. It's a good read. Red Bones fucked around with this message at 10:09 on Oct 30, 2016 |
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Oct 30, 2016 09:58
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PT6A posted:Looking at this, it makes a bit more sense why North Korea is basically, "no, you guys aren't allowed to have religions, this can't end well." Certainly wouldn't want people blindly following a cult of personality who's actually just some fat gently caress getting fat off the land and not having actual solutions
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Oct 30, 2016 10:39
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