TRUMP: holy FUCK its november 8th

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Vertical Lime: Dec 11, 2004

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

Conway: Man who shouted 'Jew-S-A' is 'deplorable'

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/trump-kellyanne-conway-jew-s-a-deplorable/

don't these people know they're proving hillary right

oh yeah that means they have a brain

time to see if eddie b lives another week

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:08

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 03:58

Chris James 2: Aug 9, 2012

Lastgirl posted:

Here's an interesting question.

How many people die before they get a chance to fill out their ballot?

We have about a week and some odd days to go, how many people gonna drop dead before they vote?

I promise everyone here I will not allow my body to fully die until the moment after I finish casting and submitting my vote, cinching up Pennsylvania for Abuela

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:09

Samuel Clemens: Oct 4, 2013; I think we should call the Avengers.

Trump probably cancelled all buses once he realised he'd have to pay for them.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:09

mannerup: Jan 11, 2004; ♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

Schnorkles posted:

I am laughing so hard right now

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792805299816062976

lmao

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:09

Red Dad Redemption: Sep 29, 2007

Peel posted:

i dread to think what effect [arzy] had on his clients' portfolios

if he's anything like most of them, he doesn't really give a poo poo and just happily churns the accounts

separately, i've been trying to reconfigure my av setup and so cable news has been blaring in the background and goddamn trump is a repulsive rear end in a top hat. this election can't end too soon (unless he's elected)

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:10

Kurtofan: Feb 16, 2011; hon hon hon

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

Conway: Man who shouted 'Jew-S-A' is 'deplorable'

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/trump-kellyanne-conway-jew-s-a-deplorable/

can't believe she used the d-word

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:11

That DICK!: Sep 28, 2010

Conway is saying deplorable with an a though not an er

Edit: high five man above me

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:11

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

It's a good thing that the trump campaign is completely loving incompetent.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:11

a.lo: Sep 12, 2009

where are you trump bus

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:11

Slate Action: Feb 13, 2012; by exmarx

Schnorkles posted:

It's a good thing that the trump campaign is completely loving incompetent.

For months I've wondered if he was about to turn a corner and start running a better campaign, but no he really is that dumb.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:12

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Schnorkles posted:

Schnorkles-brand EV update, good but not great edition:

There's been some arzying itt lately about Comey and the noisyness of the ABC daily tracker. Hopefully the battleground polls out today showing that SURPRISE, nothing has changed, have calmed people down a bit. Early voting data from Saturday is still trickling in. In general, I would categorize the day for the dems as good and leaning towards decisive, but that its shying away from the electoral rout that people were hoping for. There also is a growing sense that there is a discrepancy between the demographic and partisan data in the races and the actual EV numbers. To be fair, typically you take them together and try to form a coherent picture. In one specific case this election, it's getting really confusing to try and do that: Florida.

Anyways, numbers:

North Carolina:

North Carolina outperformed last year by 7900 votes, casting asperions on the idea that the whole FBI thing is going to cause voters or partisans to stay home. More anecdotal evidence from reporters following canvassers confirms this. In general, I find the FBI story to be a Rorschach test for partisans. You see in it what you want to see that confirms your already existing views on the election, the people involved, and the various things at stake. Hillary supporters will be motivated, Trump supporters will be motivated, Alex Jones will yell about frogs turning gay from chemtrails. Democratic participation in EV has risen again from -4.7% to -4.0%. As I've noted, expect this to continue to rise. Republican participation is up slightly overall as well. NPA participation is up massively. Most polls of EV in NC have found Clinton up in high double digits [usually 20's] with Trump either slightly favored in the remaining electorate or even further behind. The senate race has also moved to a dead tie in the most recent polling , with both CBS/Yougov and NBC/Marist finding it completely even.

What this means is that Clinton is probably performing fairly well with NPA's, maybe even a few points ahead of Trump. Allow me to quickly perform the counter arguement to this.

*Extremely boosted voice*: But Schnorkles, Independents are WHITE and REPUBLICANS who believe in GUNS and the CONSTITUTION and have LEFT THE PARTY for WE THE PEOPLE. Trump will win them MASSIVELY. TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP etc.

Well, yes. Sort of. There's a difference between voter roll NPA or Independent and people who self-identify as "independent" on polls. The 2nd group tends to be exactly as described above, actual voter roll NPA's are all over the place. A thread from Michael McDonald for your perusal:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/792550699745865728

This pattern has held through the last few months and would be supported by the idea that the unaffiliated group is actually mostly from the dem heavy counties, young, and breaking more towards Clinton. I wouldn't 100% count on this, but polling backs up what's being suggested here.

Today is souls to the polls. Bears watching.

Nevada:

Dumpster fire is back on fire. Dems now lead by 44k in Clark county, and won for the 5th out of 6 days in the crucial Washoe bellwether. [Rule is: Win Clark, tie Washoe, don't get absolutely murdered in the rurals, or at least run up turnout enough in Clark that it doesn't matter]. When that Clark number gets to 60k, the game is over. Today Trump has a rally in LV [and has buses to take supporters to go early vote if they live in LV afterwards] and is probably his best chance to put a dent in it:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/792790500239519745

As long as Dems win slightly again today, Nevada is probably done. With it, the election.

Other States:

Most other states don't update over the weekend, lots of information is the same, no real updates, etc. EV going on in Ohio right now and I've heard tangential reports that it looks good for Dems, but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Florida:

Florida is close right now. Dems underperformed yesterday pretty badly. Rain in Miami might have had something to do with it, but a 3.5k in person advantage when everything was said and done in early voting is not enough. Florida's electorate is old and white right now, and I want to say Trump is favored pretty strongly. Then polls go and do this:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/792714877840216064

So yeah, I don't know. My suggestion is to ignore polls of EV and pay attention to partisan turnout. Dems are slightly behind and their ground game needs to pick it up if they want to win the state in my view.

Two things to watch in general right now:

1.) Turnout among 60+ and 45-59 voters are both hitting 40-50%. They're going to start scraping their ceilings soon as younger voters become larger shares of the day to day electorate.

2.) Latino turnout is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy up right now.

Trump's early voting lead in Florida is substantially smaller than McCain's was at this point.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:12

Jazerus: May 24, 2011

a.lo posted:

where are you trump bus

stay safe bus ghost

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:12

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Schnorkles posted:

It's a good thing that the trump campaign is completely loving incompetent.

Can't think of a hilariously badly run GE campaign in recent history.

It's such amateur in everything from messaging to ground game.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:12

Samuel Clemens: Oct 4, 2013; I think we should call the Avengers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiZT1bdGllM

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:12

alnilam: Nov 10, 2009

mannerup posted:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792803027392409600
https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792804288594456576

lmao please please let it be true that hte buses don't exist, not because i want to disenfranchise anyone but just because lol @ trump campaign

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:13

shiksa: Nov 9, 2009; i went to one of these wrestling shows and it was... honestly? frickin boring. i wanna see ricky! i want to see his gold chains and respect for the ftw lifestyle

mannerup posted:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792803027392409600
https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792804288594456576

Lol that's loving awesome, great job gang

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:13

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:14

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

etalian posted:

Can't think of a hilariously badly run GE campaign in recent history.

It's such amateur in everything from messaging to ground game.

this is the campaign that won the republican primary

a dozen of the best fine-tuned racers the republican party could engineer and they lost to a burning pile of tyres

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:15

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Vox Nihili posted:

Trump's early voting lead in Florida is substantially smaller than McCain's was at this point.

it bears repeating that the law changes in FL make baseline comparisons to 2012 and 2008 pretty tortured this cycle, but that we should expect Dems to win Early In Person voting strongly on weekend days.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:15

Venom Snake: Feb 19, 2014; by Nyc_Tattoo

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/792807259956875264

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:16

DivisionPost: Jun 28, 2006; Nobody likes you.
Everybody hates you.
You're gonna lose.

Smile, you fuck.

Schnorkles, the day may come where you have to break some bad news and justify any instinct to freak out that we might have. If that day comes, I hope I remember that you're just doing your thing and keeping us all in the know (or as close to it as can be expected) and even if we don't like the result, you're still doing a great service.

But since it hasn't come, thank you, thank you, thank you for keeping people like me calm and sane while the world around us grows increasingly unsure and shook.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:18

Peel: Dec 3, 2007

it's a pity garrison loves labels and his commentary amounts to bashing action figures together because his art is above and beyond any other american conservative cartoonist i remember from the politoons thread

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:18

Fireside Nut: Feb 10, 2010; turp

Reporting in that partner and I just dropped 2 votes for mi Abuela in a legit swing state. :v:

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:18

mannerup: Jan 11, 2004; ♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792808300391772160

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:19

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Peel posted:

this is the campaign that won the republican primary

a dozen of the best fine-tuned racers the republican party could engineer and they lost to a burning pile of tyres

Not sure finely tuned could describe the Jeb! campaign.

Probably the only real threat to Trump was Lyin' Ted.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:19

The Larch: Jan 14, 2015; by FactsAreUseless

LinYutang posted:

the trump buses to the polls might actually not exist...

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/792804734025379840

Anyone who didn't expect this, raise your hand.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:20

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

mannerup posted:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792807577310466048

waiting until there are actual buses

brb gonna rewrite waiting for godot as waiting for trump bus

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:20

Darkman Fanpage: Jul 4, 2012

Schnorkles posted:

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/792801301247561729

the "vote for our guy or we'll genocide you" argument is one i haven't seen in awhile

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:20

LinYutang: Oct 12, 2016; NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!

lmao 22 voters get in gooooo

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:21

Ostentatious: Sep 29, 2010

I ain't even trippin I never thought trump had a chance and I can't believe living in a world where someone might think otherwise

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:21

TwinsensRevenge: Aug 13, 2013

Nonsense posted:

day crew:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbWIokIOws0

nite crew:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6rqbzuOFtA

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:21

Darkman Fanpage: Jul 4, 2012

mannerup posted:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792808300391772160

spotted: old man smoking cigarette

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:21

shiksa: Nov 9, 2009; i went to one of these wrestling shows and it was... honestly? frickin boring. i wanna see ricky! i want to see his gold chains and respect for the ftw lifestyle

Venom Snake posted:

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/792807259956875264

This is the guy who's entire policy crafting staff is people who have given him lots and lots of money.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:21

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

DivisionPost posted:

Schnorkles, the day may come where you have to break some bad news and justify any instinct to freak out that we might have. If that day comes, I hope I remember that you're just doing your thing and keeping us all in the know (or as close to it as can be expected) and even if we don't like the result, you're still doing a great service.

But since it hasn't come, thank you, thank you, thank you for keeping people like me calm and sane while the world around us grows increasingly unsure and shook.

as of this point, I just don't see how there will be bad news about the presidential. Things look on pace for a win for HRC. The question is Senate and House.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:22

Squizzle: Apr 24, 2008

That DICK! posted:

Trick or treat smell my feet give me all your senate seats

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:22

a.lo: Sep 12, 2009

Darkman Fanpage posted:

spotted: old man smoking cigarette

sundays are never boring

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:22

Bass Bottles: Jan 14, 2006; BOSS BATTLES DID NOTHING WRONG

Peel posted:

it's a pity garrison loves labels and his commentary amounts to bashing action figures together because his art is above and beyond any other american conservative cartoonist i remember from the politoons thread

huma's legs seem to have detatched from the rest of her body, but otherwise it is a very fun visual

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:24

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Darkman Fanpage posted:

spotted: old man smoking cigarette

welcome to vegas

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:25

Ragequit: Jun 1, 2006; Lipstick Apathy

Venom Snake posted:

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/792807259956875264

So due to the Trump projection rule, he has absolutely bribed people. Trump U judge, Comey, someone, everyone?

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:25

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 03:58

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Ostentatious posted:

I ain't even trippin I never thought trump had a chance and I can't believe living in a world where someone might think otherwise

No one thought he had a chance, people thought Jeb!, Lyin' Ted or Liddle Marco would win.

# ? Oct 30, 2016 20:25

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