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uPen
Jan 25, 2010

Zu Rodina!

greatn posted:

Comey could claim one story concerns a candidate while the other concerns an outside actor as the reason this isn't biased. I'm guessing that will be the talking points.

He could also claim he's an idiot, at least then he's probably telling the truth.

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Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

Potato Salad posted:

There it is

the oppo bomb


As far as is needed for this to get a fuckload of airtime: Russia is working with the Trump campaign.

Nobody is going to give the slightest poo poo about this. A video of Putin giving Trump orders directly could come out and people would still care more about Clinton and emails. I don't know what alternate reality some goons live in but "Comey hosed up what the gently caress" is not what most media outlets are running as their headline and the odds of that changing is near-zero because our media is little better than clickbait garbage.



HorseRenoir posted:

So, what are the odds of Comey resigning before inauguration day?

He'd resign a day or two before the election, giving the most "I'm totally being forced out because I spoke The Truth" statement just to try last second damage to the election.

Ogmius815 posted:

Does the FBI director serve at the pleasure of the President?

Yes.

I imagine it'd please Clinton to see him shitcanned without being able to take the face-saving "I resign" option. If Clinton wins I'd be stunned if he doesn't resign though and even more stunned if Clinton wouldn't just fire him, to hell with the optics.

BobTheJanitor
Jun 28, 2003

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Apparently he's dressed up as a guy who says "um" and leaves the coffee shop real fast

Reading this dumb dead comedy forum all day and this was the first thing to literally make me laugh out loud. Well played.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Just the fact that the media is talking about her and not him is pushing her down in a bunch of polls.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I really do, but ima hold back I think. It's a slippery slope being a minority here on SA - it's tempting to stand up for NBPOCs too, which can slide so slippery-ly into speaking for them. I don't really have an educated opinion on racism against first nations peoples beyond "Grah, don't do that"

It's especially egregious for canadians.

Not to downplay the literal genocide of first nations by the US but Canada was still operating re-education camps for them up until 96.

Sarmhan
Nov 1, 2011


mcmagic posted:

Just the fact that the media is talking about her and not him is pushing her down in a bunch of polls.
Evidence so far is no, it hasn't moved polling.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

mcmagic posted:

Just the fact that the media is talking about her and not him is pushing her down in a bunch of polls.

Wrong again, idiot!

Her numbers haven't gone down, Trumps have ticked up slightly, mostly from Johnson supporters coming back home.

bhsman
Feb 10, 2008

by exmarx

mcmagic posted:

Just the fact that the media is talking about her and not him is pushing her down in a bunch of polls.

A handful of tracking polls but otherwise she seems to be standing pat while the pre-reopening tightening is finishing up.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
If Hillary wins AND the Dems take the Senate, Obama can and should fire Comey. Don't give him the dignity of retiring to spend more time with family. I doubt you will get any objection or blowback in that situation.

If the Senate stays in GOP hands, Obama can't do poo poo without it seeming like petty political revenge. Hillary should declare that she wants Comey to stay on and won't accept his resignation and then make his life a living hell for four years.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

WampaLord posted:

Wrong again, idiot!

Her numbers haven't gone down, Trumps have ticked up slightly, mostly from Johnson supporters coming back home.

I like how you're competently ignoring the reality of what the polls have done in the last week and yet you have the nerve to call someone else an idiot lol. You're a parody.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
NPR (don't derail plz) had a dude named Richard Painter on. He was an ethics lawyer in W's White House and he was tearing Comey a new rear end in a top hat for using his position for partisan intervention.

BDawg
May 19, 2004

In Full Stereo Symphony

straight up brolic posted:

The fact that Russia trying to influence our election isn't a bigger deal is so bizarre to me

But, e-mails.

That or,

Nuh uh.

Those are the two responses you get from the other side about Russian influence.

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.
Speaking of mistreatment of First Nations I am rooting really hard for the Cubs because A. It's the Cubs and B. Holy duck stop dressing up like native Americans white people

Spoke Lee
Dec 31, 2004

chairizard lol
Anyone have the source for Hillary's tweet?

Ogmius815
Aug 25, 2005
centrism is a hell of a drug

mcmagic posted:

I like how you're competently ignoring the reality of what the polls have done in the last week and yet you have the nerve to call someone else an idiot lol. You're a parody.

My understanding of the polls is that he is correct. The race has tightened, but this reflects increased support for Trump rather than diminished support for Clinton. Do you have evidence that undermines that?

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

duz posted:

Yes, a lot of people just use 1/10 to mean dislike/like instead of rating it on a scale.
I think it'd be best to model it with a mixture model, a beta and a normal. See if one can account for the binning. Freaky poo poo.

BDawg
May 19, 2004

In Full Stereo Symphony

Spoke Lee posted:

Anyone have the source for Hillary's tweet?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/fbis-comey-opposed-naming-russians-citing-election-timing-source.html

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

Evil Fluffy posted:

Nobody is going to give the slightest poo poo about this. A video of Putin giving Trump orders directly could come out and people would still care more about Clinton and emails. I don't know what alternate reality some goons live in but "Comey hosed up what the gently caress" is not what most media outlets are running as their headline and the odds of that changing is near-zero because our media is little better than clickbait garbage.


He'd resign a day or two before the election, giving the most "I'm totally being forced out because I spoke The Truth" statement just to try last second damage to the election.


Yes.

I imagine it'd please Clinton to see him shitcanned without being able to take the face-saving "I resign" option. If Clinton wins I'd be stunned if he doesn't resign though and even more stunned if Clinton wouldn't just fire him, to hell with the optics.

If Comey doesn't resign when Clinton wins Obama will can his rear end before she is inaugurated.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Ogmius815 posted:

My understanding of the polls is that he is correct. The race has tightened, but this reflects increased support for Trump rather than diminished support for Clinton. Do you have evidence that undermines that?

It's actually a little bit of both. But her numbers are CLEARLY down.


SunAndSpring
Dec 4, 2013

A Winner is Jew posted:

Yeah so... skip it.

Not because it isn't good mind you, but because you'll literally break your TV over one piece in particular.

A white kid at a school had to do a presentation on MLK, so he dresses up as MLK including going full black face

To be fair this is more on the kid's parents instead of him. He's like 7 or some poo poo.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
Indians are probably going to beat the Cubs so I guess racism wins or something

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.
Oh man please let ogmius and mcmagic get in an argument

I need this

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Evil Fluffy posted:

I don't know what alternate reality some goons live in but "Comey hosed up what the gently caress" is not what most media outlets are running as their headline and the odds of that changing is near-zero because our media is little better than clickbait garbage.


That'd probably be because USPOL goons are following the story in detail, reading through newspaper articles, etc., rather than looking at a 30-second summary on CNN.com. Sadly, you're near certainly right that it's not the experience of people who aren't deeply concerned about politics.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Would Hillary trust-bust major corporations? I ask because it seems like every loving business is consolidating, now with the new GE Baker Hughes merge.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...m=.877d25036bbf

alpha_destroy
Mar 23, 2010

Billy Butler: Fat Guy by Day, Doubles Machine by Night

Mel Mudkiper posted:

Speaking of mistreatment of First Nations I am rooting really hard for the Cubs because A. It's the Cubs and B. Holy duck stop dressing up like native Americans white people

Jesus loving christ. This.

I even want to like the Cleveland baseball club because I love pitching. But go Cubs go.

Evrart Claire
Jan 11, 2008
Early voting done, +1 to dem candidates in WV. Really did not like having to vote for Jim Justice.

trash person
Apr 5, 2006

Baby Executive is pleased with your performance!

mcmagic posted:

I like how you're competently ignoring the reality of what the polls have done in the last week and yet you have the nerve to call someone else an idiot lol. You're a parody.

The reality of the polls is that most polls were taken prior to the most recent email news. Those polls showed a tightening race due to Tepublicans tightening support around Trump.

The few polls taken post email news are almost the same. There is no indication so far that the email news has had any real effect on polling.

If you have polls which contradict this, feel free to share. Until then you may want to reassess who is ignoring reality.

My Linux Rig
Mar 27, 2010
Probation
Can't post for 6 years!

I hope it does turn out that the whole new email "scandal" does Jack poo poo for the election, not because I'm voting for Hillary or anything but because this will finally drive the point home that nobody cares about the loving emails

My Linux Rig fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Oct 31, 2016

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

mcmagic posted:

It's actually a little bit of both. But her numbers are CLEARLY down.




thats like, entirely tracking polls showing the difference

seiferguy
Jun 9, 2005

FLAWED
INTUITION



Toilet Rascal

Saturday, I went to the Royal BC Museum in Victoria BC, which has a fantastic First Nations' exhibit. It was equally depressing when they talk about how screwed they were by Europeans. Their seasonal exhibit is about the native languages, of which several are close to becoming extinct because there isn't enough people speaking them anymore :smith:

SunAndSpring posted:

To be fair this is more on the kid's parents instead of him. He's like 7 or some poo poo.

Also, John Oliver is horribly repulsed by it, so it's not like the show is condoning the actions of that kid.

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

alpha_destroy posted:

Jesus loving christ. This.

I even want to like the Cleveland baseball club because I love pitching. But go Cubs go.

I am really sad the folk singer who wrote go cubs go died young of cancer and never got to see last night happen

trash person
Apr 5, 2006

Baby Executive is pleased with your performance!
The recent email news will serve to do nothing more than energize the Republican base. There is nothing new there that will significantly sway Independents; anyone sold on the email scandal would have been sold over the past year.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

theflyingorc posted:

thats like, entirely tracking polls showing the difference

So? There is clearly both upward movement on him and downward movement on her.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

My Linux Rig posted:

I hope it does turn out that the whole new email "scandal" does Jack poo poo for the election, not because I'm voting for Hillary or anything but because this will finally drive the point home that nobody cares about the loving emails
There's zero indication anybody cares about them but for this thread.


theflyingorc posted:

thats like, entirely tracking polls showing the difference
Yes, and?

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

mcmagic posted:

So? There is clearly both upward movement on him and downward movement on her.

You simply don't have enough data there to make a comparison, and LATimes has been FLIPPING OUT and not correlating to other date for the past month, as has ABC and IDB.

Bad data telling you something doesn't mean that the something is true.

ReV VAdAUL
Oct 3, 2004

I'm WILD about
WILDMAN
Has there been any specifics given on how/if polls take into account early voting or Clinton's fundraising and ground game advantages?

Specifically with early voting, do pollsters still count people as likely voters if they've already voted?

djw175
Apr 23, 2012

by zen death robot

mcmagic posted:

So? There is clearly both upward movement on him and downward movement on her.

Here let me spell it out for you. Tracking polls are garbage and they've proven that this election.

botany
Apr 27, 2013

by Lowtax

mcmagic posted:

So? There is clearly both upward movement on him and downward movement on her.

I am imagining you sitting on the beach for days, screaming "the world will run out of water" each low tide, screaming "we will all drown" each high tide.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

theflyingorc posted:

You simply don't have enough data there to make a comparison, and LATimes has been FLIPPING OUT and not correlating to other date for the past month
LATimes has been very well correlated with the polling average.

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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

theflyingorc posted:

You simply don't have enough data there to make a comparison, and LATimes has been FLIPPING OUT and not correlating to other date for the past month, as has ABC and IDB.

Bad data telling you something doesn't mean that the something is true.

You can ignore LATimes and still see the same trend.

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