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Nessus posted:Yeah, but how bout axiel's stuff upthread about NC? Polling does show Hillary leading among people who have voted early, but even in NC the democrats are down 3.9% from where they were at this point in 2012, while the Republicans are up 7.9%. With the exception of NV, GOTV doesn't seem to be counting for very much so far - at least not enough to help down ballot candidates who are running a few points behind Hillary.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:21
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Flip Yr Wig posted:That was Cheney, and the quote was more him fellating himself about being powerful enough to change reality than about right wing epistemic closure. Do you have a source tagging that on Cheney? Because I just looked it up, and all I can come up with is an unnamed "senior adviser to Bush" quoted in a Ron Susskind article. In any case, the idea that "we're an empire now, so we can make our own reality" is hubris on a level anybody who was awake during the Bush years can now obviously see for the donkey diarrhea it was.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:22
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https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/793263468447236096quote:Andrea Chalupa @AndreaChalupa Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 03:22
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parcs posted:Realistically what will happen if Trump wins? The Supreme Court returns to status quo or possibly shifts to a long-term conservative majority. Abortion undergoes serious attack. Gay rights are probably also going to undergo serious attack. Frankly if you're any kind of minority you're not in for a great time. Obamacare will probably be gutted beyond what it already is so if you're depending on it for health care you're in for a bad time. Our relationship with foreign countries is going to go down the toilet. If you're wealthy or a white male you'll probably not be in too bad shape unless Trump really really fucks up with foreign policy.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:22
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parcs posted:Realistically what will happen if Trump wins? Nobody knows, but the absolute best case scenario is that Trump is basically an empty suit who rubber stamps whatever Ryan sends across his desk and does nothing on his own initative. He appoints 2-3 SCOTUS judges picked from the Heritage foundation wishlist, and the court is back to where it started when WJC first took over in 1992. THIS IS AN AWFUL AWFUL SCENARIO... but the worst case scenario is that Trump is every bit the impulsive shortsighted moron he appears to be, in which case anything up to and including global thermonuclear war is possibe.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:23
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:Best case scenario is 4 years of dumb Republican policies getting rubberstamped Every time a Republican is close to winning or actually does win, the left panics and predicts that kind of outcome would be death and eternal darkness. Its usually a dumb exaggeration because we all have a set of basic American norms and values, and the president is probably educated and rational to some extent. Maybe we fight an unwise war and tens of thousands die which is terrible, but we'll survive. Trump is the first, and hopefully only candidate in my lifetime that is legit terrifying, and the biggest threat to our Republic since WW2.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:23
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rscott posted:A friend of mine asked me when the democrats started caring about the Russians and I told him when the United States became more left wing than Russia did Lol, I agree that Russia is now expressly right wing but to be fair Democrats prosecuted the Cold War as ruthlessly as Republicans did, from Woodrow Wilson on. Edited to add: with the notable exception of FDR during WWII.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:24
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TyrantWD posted:Polling does show Hillary leading among people who have voted early, but even in NC the democrats are down 3.9% from where they were at this point in 2012, while the Republicans are up 7.9%.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:24
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Nessus posted:Can you source this? The one time I saw this came up, it was comparing voting figures at that time (which was already nearly a week ago) to the totals in 2012 as of election day. It's TyrantWD so take it with a grain of salt.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:25
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Northjayhawk posted:I think we can safely eliminate the 1st map. Hmm...what bout this one?  Again, we're talking a fairly crazy scenario but it doesn't rely on PA going red. You can also get a tie if you swap NM and WI but I don't really see NM going for Trump. I think this is all moot though because Clinton is going to get VA+NC+CO. which if you put that into 270...  This is what you're playing with. Trump basically needs to run the table here or only give up ME-2, NV and NH to have a chance. That's a really tall order. Plus I'm only throwing in PA because I'm being charitable. You throw in PA and the election is over. axeil fucked around with this message at 03:31 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 03:25
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I for one am looking forward to 4-8 years of 4-4 ties in SCOTUS.quote:But he also bluntly said that if Clinton is elected, he will do everything in his power to deny her the right to fill the vacant Supreme Court slot, aligning himself with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's position on the issue.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:26
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axeil posted:Yep. Way too many minority voters in MI to make it possible. WI is a maybe but even then he still loses. Which is why I think that first scenario is completely out and the only chance is playing for a 269-269 tie and swinging it to the House. Trump is basically betting on Michigan because it surprise went to Bernie in the primary. His local campaign officer's been on public radio talking about it. What he doesn't understand is that happened because the U of M, Wayne, and a bunch of universities held really effective GOTV/energizing stuff for the youth vote in Michigan that the polling missed because it was all landlines, plus Dearborn went pretty hard against Clinton. These are not demographics Trump is going to win. At all.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:26
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parcs posted:Realistically what will happen if Trump wins? Realistically, Pence will lead a newly emboldened faction in the house/senate Rs, like a much worse Tea Party, and ram through every theocratic warmongering granny-starving piece of legislation they can think up, while Trump gropes interns and builds yoooge presidential suites in all his hotels. The stock market will tank, our trade deals will fall apart, and our relationships with most of our allies will be damaged for a generation or more. His big promises like building the wall and deporting every immigrant probably aren't logistically possible, but his legislature would have no problems enacting a muslim immigration ban, and Trump voters would see his victory as a mandate to go attack "foreigners" freely. We would see a huge increase in Brexit-style violence against minorities, and probably a lot of people fleeing the country or at least depopulating the red areas for relative safety in cities. His cabinet of Steves would probably be somewhere between Nixon and Reagan in terms of ill will, but I imagine Trump's insanity would mean his staff is a revolving door just like his campaign has been. He'd be very unlikely to win re-election, but he'd almost certainly literally steal the silverware as he exited the White House.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:26
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Northjayhawk posted:Every time a Republican is close to winning or actually does win, the left panics and predicts that kind of outcome would be death and eternal darkness. Its usually a dumb exaggeration because we all have a set of basic American norms and values, and the president is probably educated and rational to some extent. Maybe we fight an unwise war and tens of thousands die which is terrible, but we'll survive. To be fair, for those who were unable to afford health care due to prior illness it sometimes meant death. To those who were less under the law, it meant persecution and a denial of human rights. Only those of us lucky enough to be white and male were really guaranteed any sort of right to basic American norms and values.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:26
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axeil posted:Hmm...what bout this one? Please god explain to me why Colorado would go red
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Nov 1, 2016 03:27
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axeil posted:Hmm...what bout this one? Trump won't take Wisconsin
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Nov 1, 2016 03:27
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HannibalBarca posted:Nobody knows, but the absolute best case scenario is that Trump is basically an empty suit who rubber stamps whatever Ryan sends across his desk and does nothing on his own initative. He appoints 2-3 SCOTUS judges picked from the Heritage foundation wishlist, and the court is back to where it started when WJC first took over in 1992. THIS IS AN AWFUL AWFUL SCENARIO... Considering Ryan tried to stage a coup on Trump and they haven't publicly buried the hatchet over that at all I seriously doubt a narrative where Trump is rubber-stamping anything Ryan offers.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:28
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Spaced God posted:Please god explain to me why Colorado would go red I believe they're attempting to demonstrate how batshit insane Trump's paths without NC are, not post plausible maps.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:28
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:in other news i don't believe this for one minute but file it into the "lol if true" pile At this point why loving not.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:28
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Nessus posted:Can you source this? The one time I saw this came up, it was comparing voting figures at that time (which was already nearly a week ago) to the totals in 2012 as of election day. Elect project posted it this morning (on my phone so I can't browse it as easily).
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Nov 1, 2016 03:28
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There is no Trump sex tape. If there were, he would have released it himself.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:28
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GalacticAcid posted:Lol, I agree that Russia is now expressly right wing but to be fair Democrats prosecuted the Cold War as ruthlessly as Republicans did, from Woodrow Wilson on. Democrats are communists to this guy (libertarians are pretty dumb)
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Nov 1, 2016 03:29
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Night10194 posted:I believe they're attempting to demonstrate how batshit insane Trump's paths without NC are, not post plausible maps. Oh snap, my bad.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:29
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I'm just glad that there aren't enough Clinically Stupid people to swing this election. Taking education as a rudimentary measure of conventional intelligence, it's really obvious that Trump is going Full Retard. I suppose the only thing saving America is the 30ish percent of non-degree holders who seem to be the proverbial benevolent simpleton. I realize this is an incredibly dumb way to analyze a situation, but it's the only way I can rationalize it 
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Nov 1, 2016 03:29
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Teddybear posted:There is no Trump sex tape. If there were, he would have released it himself. Unless he has something to hide, like his dick looks like a quail egg
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Nov 1, 2016 03:30
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Teddybear posted:There is no Trump sex tape. If there were, he would have released it himself. Unless his hands really aren't the only thing that's small.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:30
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GalacticAcid posted:Lol, I agree that Russia is now expressly right wing but to be fair Democrats prosecuted the Cold War as ruthlessly as Republicans did, from Woodrow Wilson on. This is going to be hard for millennials to understand, but in the 20th century, there were two superpowers, one of which was the USA, and the other the USSR. Both had tons of nukes and tons of soldiers, and if all-out war ever broke out, human civilization would have ended right then and there, and if we survived as a species, it would have taken at least two centuries to build back to where we started. Also, back in the day, Democrats did not think Republicans were all evil, and Republicans didn't, on the whole, think that Democrats were lizard people out to steal their children's teeth and turn them into gay genes. But this was back when public education was allowed to teach mores apart from just the "no sex ever" ones
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Nov 1, 2016 03:30
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Libertine posted:Considering Ryan tried to stage a coup on Trump and they haven't publicly buried the hatchet over that at all I seriously doubt a narrative where Trump is rubber-stamping anything Ryan offers. MODS CURE JOKES posted:I'm just glad that there aren't enough Clinically Stupid people to swing this election. Taking education as a rudimentary measure of conventional intelligence, it's really obvious that Trump is going Full Retard. I suppose the only thing saving America is the 30ish percent of non-degree holders who seem to be the proverbial benevolent simpleton. I realize this is an incredibly dumb way to analyze a situation, but it's the only way I can rationalize it B. the term of art is now "standard retard"
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Nov 1, 2016 03:30
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Teddybear posted:There is no Trump sex tape. If there were, he would have released it himself. If there is a Trump sex tape, the only reason he hasn't released it himself is it's probably a bunch of underage Russian prostitutes doing heinous, heinous things. And/or one of them is black.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:30
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MODS CURE JOKES posted:I'm just glad that there aren't enough Clinically Stupid people to swing this election. Taking education as a rudimentary measure of conventional intelligence, it's really obvious that Trump is going Full Retard. I suppose the only thing saving America is the 30ish percent of non-degree holders who seem to be the proverbial benevolent simpleton. I realize this is an incredibly dumb way to analyze a situation, but it's the only way I can rationalize it Considering all the reasons someone might not obtain higher education and how few of them are stupidity, do you think there's any other way you could have phrased this
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Nov 1, 2016 03:31
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Someone posted this video of a 1992 Oprah show that had Jane Elliott on talking about racism in America. It is really good and white people in this thread should watch it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzycqpRZ7cY Some of the stuff she says is a little outdated and/or cringy but her blunt attitude and acknowledgement of racism really hit the point home and it's amazing to see this discussion happening as bluntly in the early 90's too bad it didn't catch on and we have a Klan member running for US Senate today. However, I post that to ask a question; around 11:30 in the video she's talking about age-ism and mentions that congress is trying to pass legislation to allow for withholding medical care for people over 75. I was only 11 at the time so I don't remember that issue being discussed. My Google-fu is failing; does anyone have more context on that? It sounds a lot like the death panel controversy that Republicans hung all over the ACA.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:32
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DICKS FOR DINNER posted:Unless he has something to hide, like his dick looks like a quail egg I would literally believe this as more of a reason for him to want a sex tape hidden, than if it was with a minor.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:33
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:a huge increase in Brexit-style violence. Huh? There was brexit violence? I knew of some nobody minister getting killed by a crazy rear end in a top hat, but id hardly call that mass violence. Or is ir just progressive jerk-porn like "unf imagine if he calls her a oval office at the debate *fap fap*" MattD1zzl3 fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 03:33
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Duscat posted:This is going to be hard for millennials to understand, but in the 20th century, there were two superpowers, one of which was the USA, and the other the USSR. Both had tons of nukes and tons of soldiers, and if all-out war ever broke out, human civilization would have ended right then and there, and if we survived as a species, it would have taken at least two centuries to build back to where we started. Also, back in the day, Democrats did not think Republicans were all evil, and Republicans didn't, on the whole, think that Democrats were lizard people out to steal their children's teeth and turn them into gay genes. My grandpa was known for the adage "the only good Republican is a dead Republican" so I don't think it was all David Brooks bullshit back then.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:34
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Spaced God posted:Please god explain to me why Colorado would go red Yaws posted:Trump won't take Wisconsin I'm trying to theorycraft winning scenarios for Trump assuming Clinton wins NC and as you can see it requires some pretty crazy poo poo! Considering it my anti-arzy donation to the thread. Night10194 posted:I believe they're attempting to demonstrate how batshit insane Trump's paths without NC are, not post plausible maps. Correct! Also I'm a dude, it's cool to say he, although I appreciate people going to the "they" when they don't know gender on the internet, it's a nice thing to do.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:34
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I do recall a father and son being brutalised and left in the street, as well as the usual inbred fuckery.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:35
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MattD1zzl3 posted:Huh? There was brexit violence? I knew of some nobody minister getting killed by a crazy rear end in a top hat, but id hardly call that mass violence. I mean, I'm sure you got a reason why it doesn't count, but that's what the Brits say
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Nov 1, 2016 03:35
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GalacticAcid posted:My grandpa was known for the adage "the only good Republican is a dead Republican" so I don't think it was all David Brooks bullshit back then. Congratulations, your gramps was an idiot ahead of his time.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:35
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If Trump wins, America turns into Kansas, best case scenario, and Kansas is hosed
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Nov 1, 2016 03:36
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Spaced God posted:If there is a Trump sex tape, the only reason he hasn't released it himself is it's probably a bunch of underage Russian prostitutes doing heinous, heinous things. McMuffin knew! He says his CIA contacts told him that Trump did stuff in Russia that he was being blackmailed over. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg7rmoHlxEg
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Nov 1, 2016 03:36
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