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Well, honestly it wasn't that successful. They had to literally threaten a default days before it closed (http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/18/news/economy/venezuela-pdvsa-default/) and they still didn't meet their expectations. Still, I think the main takeaway from these discussions is how the Venezuelan government is willing to honor debt before putting that money to emergency efforts. At this point, we've got people dying every day due to lack of food and medicine and the government denies it, and it's still unwilling to negotiate debt. I'm not an economist, so I don't know how much a default would impact us, but at this point, wouldn't that be the better choice? Or at least they should permit humanitarian aid. That alone shows the PSUV is not only incapable but downright unconcerned with the fact people are dying.
Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 05:20 on Oct 30, 2016 |
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Oct 30, 2016 05:02
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Accepting humanitarian aid would either be an admission that the US isn't completely evil and trying to destroy Venezuela, in which case they lose their scapegoat and start to lose control as having the aid cut off because they did something stupid would be a bigger disaster than not accepting it in the first place, or it would look like surrendering to the US even though it is evil and nefariously continuing its campaign of economic destruction by illegal dumping food or some poo poo, which would make the government look even weaker.
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Oct 30, 2016 05:42
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They won't accept the aid because they can't profit from it, if they were sure they could take the free medicines and then make their CLAP groups sell them then they would accept the aid but they know no organization would let them distribute anything.
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Oct 30, 2016 05:51
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However, a Wall Street Journal analysis of Maduro’s 2017 budget found the president could be predicting an inflation rate of 477 percent next year, and the International Monetary Fund has revised its initial estimate of 700 percent to 480 percent. https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/12755
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Oct 30, 2016 06:36
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Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela posted:In what other part of the world do workers enjoy this many raises? 
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Oct 30, 2016 09:27
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Venegoons, this is a totally random question, but does your country have any kind of Amateur Radio culture? I'm a technician class Amateur Radio Operator here in the US, the only HF long distance band I have voice privileges on is the 10 Meter band, which has been opening up to the Caribbean and South America almost daily as of late. I made contacts as far south as Rancho Queimado, Santa Catarina Brazil, almost on the Uruguay border this afternoon from Cleveland, Ohio. If poo poo really gets bad and a media blackout comes to pass, are there Venezuelan Ham radio operators that can step up and get information out? If so, US hams will be listening. We helped out Warsaw Pact states when the USSR was falling. We can help now. MullardEL34 fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Oct 30, 2016 |
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Oct 30, 2016 09:47
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That's a cool idea, but I would assume that most of the people with both the technical aptitude and disposable income to have a hobby like that would have already fled the country sadly. In WarPact countries engineers and such couldn't leave the country for the most part. VZ doesn't seem to be quite at that point yet, you can still buy a ticket and go. I'd love it if I was wrong though. The idea of some kind of Radio Free Venezuela is really cool and might be something that could help people out.
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Oct 30, 2016 11:50
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Not to mention that the Internet is still almost completely unrestricted and readily available in the country. Radio seems a lot more complicated in comparison. I'm still amazed there's no Arab Spring type reaction -- it's not like most of those countries had relevant organized opposition either. People just got together from like facebook posts and group texting. I guess the difference in Venezuela is that the opposition is actively sabotaging the capacity for the real street protests to have any effect. The MUD is even worse than having no opposition parties at all, as it gives a flaccid steam valve for people's anger.
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Oct 30, 2016 17:24
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You guys are under the impression that the only people who haven't left the country are the ones that don't have the money to do so and that's completely wrong.
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Oct 30, 2016 17:29
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Saladman posted:Not to mention that the Internet is still almost completely unrestricted and readily available in the country. Radio seems a lot more complicated in comparison. that surprises me. I had assumed the PSUV had built a shittyer "great firewall" or something like that. i guess the dont care or are just dumb about it.
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Oct 30, 2016 19:04
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El Hefe posted:All it takes is another accident like in Amuay and PDVSA are done because now they don't have the money or foreign companies to fix anything. I posted this yesterday and today this happened in a refinery in Puerto La Cruz https://twitter.com/RCTVenlinea/status/792778881409441792 https://twitter.com/RCTVenlinea/status/792776032994594816 https://twitter.com/RCTVenlinea/status/792787611588947968
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Oct 30, 2016 20:00
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 We had nothing to do with it, honest!
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Oct 30, 2016 20:03
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Yeah actually how uncensored is the Internet in VZ? Do you guys ever worry that posting anti-govt. sentiments on places like SA will get you in trouble, or are things not that bad? Or is the main limitation the bulk of the population simply not being able to afford to go online?
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Oct 30, 2016 22:06
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themrguy posted:Yeah actually how uncensored is the Internet in VZ? Do you guys ever worry that posting anti-govt. sentiments on places like SA will get you in trouble, or are things not that bad? The government blocks a bunch of websites, but the list is not that extensive, and you can get around that by changing DNS. Now, they do occasionally imprison people for Tweeting and the like, but those tend to be the accounts that post anti-government stuff 24/7, call for confrontation, and stuff like that. A regular Joe is not likely to land on the SEBIN's blacklist by using social media. Everyone mocks the government routinely on every platform and gets away with it. I don't have statistics at hand, but internet penetration in Venezuela is not terrible from what I remember. Near the beginning of this decade the whole country went smartphone crazy, so most people have internet access via their phones. The state ISP also launched a program to give away PCs and laptops with modest payment plans, which had some limited success. Internet plans via the main ISPS are pretty darn cheap, as in I pay less than $1 for the top one. The only problem with our internet is that it's really slow, the highest residential speeds top off at 10MBps. Plus, the connection goes down regularly due to lack of maintenance. That being said, the government does spy heavily on the communications of opposition figureheads, and they don't even try to hide it. Diosdado Cabello regularly airs tapped phone conversations, emails, and text messages between opposition members in his TV show and nobody bats an eyelid. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Oct 30, 2016 |
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Oct 30, 2016 22:30
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There's an NSA+FBI kind group whose purpose is to spy on people and plant evidence to incriminate them They operate within the CICPC but it's kinda obscure and most regular people don't know about them
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Oct 30, 2016 22:45
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Chuo Torrealba is in a meeting with Maduro right now https://twitter.com/lubrio/status/792888909302751232 the MUD makes me wanna cry
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Oct 31, 2016 01:51
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He has a nice hat on
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Oct 31, 2016 02:57
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Apparently the opposition did not speak at all in the "dialogue" table. Who wants to bet that Thursday's march is no longer happening? I mean, just look who attended that session, Chuo Torrealba, Luis Aquiles Moreno, Carlos Ocariz, Timoteo Zambrano and Henri Falcon, alongside Delcy Rodriguez, Jorge Rodriguez, Elias Jaua and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. fnox fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Oct 31, 2016 |
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Oct 31, 2016 09:18
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fnox posted:Who wants to bet that Thursday's march is no longer happening? The 'talks' made front page of the BBC today today/right now too. I'd bet it still happens, but instead of a march it becomes an hour of in-place group calisthenics (like all of the previous 'marches'). Bring your yoga mat. E: Ironically, calling it off would probably result in a bigger and more effective protest than if the MUD continued to hold it — so of course they will continue to hold it.
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Oct 31, 2016 09:29
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Labradoodle posted:As if the Supreme Court wasn't enough of a joke already, today they published a ruling stating that Maduro is 100% as Venezuelan as having arepas for breakfast. Great move, Supreme Court, that'll shut those birtherists up. except, you know, they also have arepas for breakfast in colombia in fact, having arepas at all is more colombian than venezuelan now, my heart goes out to our hermanos sin harina pan
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Oct 31, 2016 12:16
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DXH posted:except, you know, they also have arepas for breakfast in colombia  I am 100% convinced Maduro is Colombian now, but that's a dead end, he clearly won't step down because of that.
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Oct 31, 2016 12:40
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The whole dialogue thing is so bizarre. First of all, it can hardly be said to involve the MUD at all. I say this because 15 of the MUD's parties issued a joint statement saying that the conditions for a dialogue did not exist. Add to this list of minor parties two of the "Big Four": Voluntad Popular (VP) and Accion Democratica (AD). VP says that there's nothing to talk about so they won't sit down for any dialogue, and AD says that it will only join the dialogue if the other three big parties agree to it. AD still sent someone to the talk last night, which is partly due to the fact that Henry Ramos Allup (the head of AD) spent a lot of time last week clarifying that the meeting yesterday wasn't the start of the dialogue, but rather just a meeting to explore the possibility of starting a dialogue. It's clear to me why Maduro wants "dialogue". He's a cornered rat so he'll say and do anything to buy himself as much time and good will as possible. Plus, this is a big PR win for him, because today headlines read something like "Bitterly divided opposition refuses to accept President's offer of talks". What I don't get is why Torrealba is so bent on the dialogue when so much of the MUD clearly isn't. I think that maybe the MUD sees the writing on the wall and is just going through the due diligence motions before violence erupts so that if it does it can say "don't pin this on us, we tried to talk it out". In any case, I'm reading here that the two sides have agreed to try to meet again on November 11, so who knows what will happen between now and then. fnox posted:Who wants to bet that Thursday's march is no longer happening?
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Oct 31, 2016 13:07
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Chuck Boone posted:If the MUD cancels the Thursday march it'll be the end of the MUD. I can't see them cancelling it unless they're deliberately trying to destroy the bloc, or as Saladman said, as part of some four-dimensional chess to get people even more worked up and drive up attendance. You're already seeing it collapse, the fact alone that this dialogue took place with a faction of the MUD that is acting against what the polls and people were demanding is enough to show that there is a rift between these allied parties, PJ and UNT on one side, VP and AD on the other. If Maduro had a weak position he wouldn't have got the meeting to happen at all, but he knows what's up, he knows there's a significant portion of the opposition leadership, particularly in UNT, that stands to lose a lot with his downfall.
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Oct 31, 2016 14:46
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fnox posted:You're already seeing it collapse, the fact alone that this dialogue took place with a faction of the MUD that is acting against what the polls and people were demanding is enough to show that there is a rift between these allied parties, PJ and UNT on one side, VP and AD on the other. If Maduro had a weak position he wouldn't have got the meeting to happen at all, but he knows what's up, he knows there's a significant portion of the opposition leadership, particularly in UNT, that stands to lose a lot with his downfall. I think you're right. When 17 out of (what? like, 19-20 parties?) don't back the dialogue, but Torrealba shows up anyways, something's up. It's frustrating to see Torrealba fight so hard against the current.
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Oct 31, 2016 14:59
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Wasn't this the pope's idea?
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Oct 31, 2016 15:21
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Can anyone drop a quick summary on the individual opposition leaders/parties?
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Oct 31, 2016 15:22
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Chuck Boone posted:I think you're right. When 17 out of (what? like, 19-20 parties?) don't back the dialogue, but Torrealba shows up anyways, something's up. It's frustrating to see Torrealba fight so hard against the current. The truth is, this is the breaking point. This is the moment where the Venezuelan public decides whether to stand in open rebellion to the government, or to continue waiting for the government to allow them to vote. Neither scenario is desirable, but these are the choices that are left, the government holds and has consolidated all of their keys to power, but in the process they've crossed the one line they weren't meant to cross. The people and the world will back an open insurrection, but if the public fervor is not channeled and focused towards the ones responsible, it will end in disaster. JohnGalt posted:Can anyone drop a quick summary on the individual opposition leaders/parties? Right, so, the Mesa de la Unidad Democratica (MUD) is a voting bloc composed out of several individual opposition parties, as a way to provide a counterpart for the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), which under Chavez, held a majority within the country. The truth is, the MUD were never close and they tend to clash among each other quite often, but under a single umbrella they have indeed managed to attain electoral victories against the PSUV, and are therefore understood to be the "official" opposition, as well as the most popular party in the country. The MUD is composed of 4 main parties, Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT), Acción Democratica (AD), Primero Justicia (PJ) and Voluntad Popular (VP), and a number of smaller ones, most noticeably Vente Venezuela (VV), Avanzada Progresista (AP), La Causa R (LCR), COPEI, and Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP). They're all over the place in the political spectrum with Vente Venezuela and Primero Justicia being noticeably right leaning and the rest being mostly left leaning. Here's a list of their key people.
fnox fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Oct 31, 2016 |
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Oct 31, 2016 15:27
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The only party worth a poo poo is Voluntad Popular, Leopoldo's party. Anyway its so sad how we live here, today I was giving a friend a ride and I park in front of his building and there was a guy there in his car waiting for someone and the minute he saw us he tensed up and thought we were going to rob him because he started looking around all nervous, this is no way to live, always afraid...
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Oct 31, 2016 22:31
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Chuck Boone posted:Thanks for your interest in our little corner of the world! It's really heartening to see non-Venezuelans pay attention to what's happening. I'm Peruvian and absolute despise governments that completely ruin their countries for decades.  I cried with him the other day because I had to explain that his life as he dreams it (become an animator) will not happen until he leaves. He tries his best to avoid it, to find any excuse to stay instead of leave. We both have severe mental health issues so I've been trying to help him push past them and just get out. I've basically been his filter for the last two years, reading the Vene-news daily wherever I can find it and telling him about the least-worst poo poo and hiding the overwhelmingly awful stuff aside. But his life, lucky as gently caress as it is, makes me absolutely miserable to think how the hell people without money are surviving. For every "only revolution will fix this" I see anywhere, there are just so many more Venezuelans that are either completely defeated/accepting that this is life now or they're desperately working out where they can leave to the world.All these government sourced problems aside, Venezuela still has all the regular life problems people have everywhere. Family abuse. Crime. Mental health problems. Homelessness. poo poo you expect to have to deal with anywhere else. And all that just seems not important compared to the lack of food, medicine, and safety there now. And because of that those other problems can't even be looked at or solved. I hear from him about how students in his art class talk about how their parents beat each other. Or the profs don't show up to class for a week because they're lining up for food, so making the risky trip to school to begin with was for nothing. How a friend of his with severe paranoia got kicked out of their home by her scam-artist parents and she's been sleeping in the salon she used to work at a year ago trying to figure out a way to go to Spain to move in with family. The list just goes on and on. I know I don't have to tell anyone this here as the last two years of posts have plenty of stories that are worse. But I just can't loving believe how everyone reacts to this. Venezuelan or not. I try to tell my Canadian friends (I live in Toronto) about what's going on and they give those concerned looks and "Glad we're safe here!" attitudes. I tell my Peruvian family about it. They're more sympathetic and caring about what's going on there but they're still assholes too where every time I see them I hear "Did you see the news about Venezuela on CBC? Man, poor people....let me tell you about how bad we had it in Peru back in the day!" And the few Venezuelans I know living here in Toronto literally refuse to talk about it because they can't handle it emotionally. So yeah, I wish I'd been posting instead of lurking all this time but like I said, I'm an outsider looking in and I'm stunned more people aren't as shocked as me about all this poo poo and trying to help. What I have to say means a lot less but I'm still doing my best to lend help to anyone I can. El Hefe posted:You guys are under the impression that the only people who haven't left the country are the ones that don't have the money to do so and that's completely wrong. The stories I've heard about some of my friends' rich friends... Or just his mom and step-dad saying "We have a great business here and a ton of money! gently caress everyone else as long as we're ok." Or other students he goes to school with whose parents are either in with the government causing this poo poo or exploiting the situation to get richer. The whole situation is hosed. At some point people are going to pull a refugee crisis and just try to flee the country. Or is that even an option with the closed borders?
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Oct 31, 2016 23:28
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Look at Syria, no one gives a poo poo really and that place is hell on earth. People are awful.
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Oct 31, 2016 23:37
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Age of the Atomic Mom posted:The stories I've heard about some of my friends' rich friends... Or just his mom and step-dad saying "We have a great business here and a ton of money! gently caress everyone else as long as we're ok." Or other students he goes to school with whose parents are either in with the government causing this poo poo or exploiting the situation to get richer. The whole situation is hosed. At some point people are going to pull a refugee crisis and just try to flee the country. Or is that even an option with the closed borders? This is the thing about this whole 'dialogue' thing. It all seems great, and democratic, and peaceful, but then you remember the people you're dealing with, you remember what they've done, you remember that every single thing they've ever 'dialogued' about has never held true, the MUD's demands aren't even what the people want, they don't ask for humanitarian aid, food and medicine, no, their demands are about the recall referendum and the political prisoners, which, fair enough, are closer to their interest. But then you realize, there is no recall referendum, and there are more political prisoners now, so when you hear about the US sending Thomas Shannon to speak to Miraflores and convince the opposition to double down with the 'dialogue', you then understand, Maduro is now farther away from being deposed than he was before. It is clear to me now that Maduro has played his cards excellently, the US want him in power because free oil keeps Cuba stable, Colombia wants Maduro because he keeps the FARC on our side of the border, Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador want Maduro as they get cheap oil in exchange for foodstuffs they have in plenty, the entire Caribbean wants Maduro because of Caricom, members of the opposition will lose their seats as governors and mayors if they have to compete against the other opposition parties rather than just the PSUV, and of course, he holds legal office and also controls every single branch of government that may threaten him. "Oh but he's so unpopular", you may say, truth be told, he knows that, and he's almost certainly banking on surviving the upcoming unrest, just as he did before, to gain a spike in popularity. In the off chance that oil prices rise again, he'll be at a very comfortable position that will allow him to finish his term, after which, the opposition can have whatever's left of the country. I want to believe that he's miscalculated just how much people hate him, but to be honest, a major crisis seems unavoidable at this point, and I don't know how it will end.
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Nov 1, 2016 00:20
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fnox posted:It is clear to me now that Maduro has played his cards excellently, the US want him in power because free oil keeps Cuba stable Wtf no, the US absolutely does not want him in power because he's incompetent enough that he might gently caress up Venezuela's oil industry and disrupt global markets. Plus he might start another migration crisis in the hemisphere, which is the last thing the US wants.
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Nov 1, 2016 00:28
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MullardEL34 posted:Venegoons, this is a totally random question, but does your country have any kind of Amateur Radio culture? I'm a technician class Amateur Radio Operator here in the US, the only HF long distance band I have voice privileges on is the 10 Meter band, which has been opening up to the Caribbean and South America almost daily as of late. I made contacts as far south as Rancho Queimado, Santa Catarina Brazil, almost on the Uruguay border this afternoon from Cleveland, Ohio. Or you know use twitter because it isn't the loving 1940s.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:42
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Thanks for the write up, fnox.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:43
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El Hefe posted:Look at Syria, no one gives a poo poo really and that place is hell on earth. Or have their own things to worry about and life to live, what the gently caress is the average person supposed to do about Venezuela or syria exactly anyway? It's kind of funny how everyone hated Bush playing world police and now everyone wants the US to wave a majic wand and make everything better.
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Nov 1, 2016 03:50
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Amerikkka Shrugged
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Nov 1, 2016 03:52
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The trial of Efrain and Francisco Flores saw a new piece of evidence revealed today: a transcript from a conversation in which Efrain tells a DEA informant that he will use the money from the drug sale to help fund Cilia Flores' campaign. Cilia Flores is Maduro's wife, and back when Efrain and Francisco were arrested in 2015, she was in the final stretch of an electoral campaign for the National Assembly. Efrian and Francisco were arrested in Haiti for allegedly attempting to smuggle 800 kilograms of cocaine into the U.S. They are Cilia Flores' nephews, but Cilia raised Efrain as her own son. Their trial is set to start in November. There have been lots of rumours linking top PSUV officials with the drug trade, but this is as far as I'm aware the first time that we've heard evidence of a direct link between drug trafficking and the Maduro household. MullardEL34 posted:Venegoons, this is a totally random question, but does your country have any kind of Amateur Radio culture? I'm a technician class Amateur Radio Operator here in the US, the only HF long distance band I have voice privileges on is the 10 Meter band, which has been opening up to the Caribbean and South America almost daily as of late. I made contacts as far south as Rancho Queimado, Santa Catarina Brazil, almost on the Uruguay border this afternoon from Cleveland, Ohio. TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Or have their own things to worry about and life to live, what the gently caress is the average person supposed to do about Venezuela or syria exactly anyway? It's kind of funny how everyone hated Bush playing world police and now everyone wants the US to wave a majic wand and make everything better. I'm not sure how you're getting that from any of these comments. Lamenting the fact that people are in general unaware of things happening outside of their own countries is not the same as calling for US intervention. As to "what the gently caress is the average person supposed to do about Venezuela or Syria exactly", being generally aware of these situations is enough for the average person. When someone tells me about a horrible tragedy in some corner of the world I've never given thought to, I don't shrug them off or get aggressive because I have "my own things to worry about". I listen and ask questions. I don't think that's a lot to ask for.
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Nov 1, 2016 04:22
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Chuck Boone posted:
That but also by not voting for politicians like Trump. Not being a racist piece of poo poo also helps.
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Nov 1, 2016 04:28
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fnox posted:It is clear to me now that Maduro has played his cards excellently, the US want him in power because free oil keeps Cuba stable, I agree completely with the rest of your post, but this phrase is a conspiracy theory that goes against eveything the US had ever done in Latib America for avout 90 years now. The US today would rather Cuba fall back into its economic influence anyway. If venezuela had a right wing dictator thiugh then I'd agree. The U.S. doesn't have a lot of options either without falling into the Maduro propaganda trap, which is eaten by the spoonful by at least a quarter of the population.
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Nov 1, 2016 08:51
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Or you know use twitter because it isn't the loving 1940s. 1940's, more like 1990's and early 2k's. The Internet can easily be shut off. Especially if the government has control of the ISP's. Amateur Radio ops helped get information out during the collapse of the USSR, the Balkan wars, The Orange revolution in Ukraine, and in the lead up, and beginning of the Iraq War. Remember, I mentioned this as a worst case scenario situation. Chuck Boone posted:This is a really interesting question. I've never heard of amateur radio culture in Venezuela. That's not to say that it doesn't exist, but I imagine that the costs of the equipment would make it prohibitively expensive as a hobby. Cuba has maintained an active Amateur Radio service (and pirate anti-Castro radio operators even in current year 2016) even after the Revolution. They build most of their equipment out of scavenged parts from Pre-Castro American TV's and radios and broken Soviet made TV sets, computer power supplies, etc. It doesn't take much money to get on the air if you understand basic electronics and have a pile of junk parts laying around. Cuba is a somewhat unique case because despite it's pre-Castro problems, it was basically on par with the USA when it came to the adoption of modern electronics and communications technology before Castro took power. Havana had regular Color TV broadcasts in 1958. So, even after the Revolution, there was a lot of well made American radio gear floating around that lasted for years and has been passed down within families,repaired using Soviet made parts, and a good segment of the population had the aptitude to repair it because this tech was widely adopted before Castro came to power. (not the color TV stuff, Che stripped the studios in Havana and had it shipped to Moscow as a token of solidarity so that it could be reverse engineered) http://dxersunlimited.blogspot.com/ EDIT: Venezuela does have an Amateur Radio association: http://yv5rcv.org/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Club_Venezolano MullardEL34 fucked around with this message at 09:34 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 08:55
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