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HannibalBarca posted:What is Obama's plan, exactly, to fight gerrymandering? Just go balls-out to make sure 2020 is a Democratic wave, something that's basically impossible to guarantee because wave elections are usually a result of external factors? Court challenges? Grassroots advocacy? I'm hugely skeptical that a tidal shift can be achieved before the next census election, especially if the next 4 years are another 4 years of gridlock. He's working with Holder and a new group they've formed to do, well, lots of things. Legal challenges, ballot initiatives, and other methods. Plus a lot of fundraising, of course.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:16
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This was the year where they could've picked up 20-25 seats to make everything in 18 and 20 an easier lift but that isn't happening now.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:16
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WampaLord posted:How does one prepare for the Director of the FBI being a loving rear end in a top hat? Yeah, this is really not something you get ready for, considering it's an unprecedented breach of decorum. They've done a good job of fighting an unprecedented attack.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:16
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Clinton is up by more than Obama was in 2012. She's only not doing as good if you compare poll numbers to final results, which is disingenuous. She's going to outperform polls just like Obama did or perhaps by more.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:18
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quote:SCOTUS is taking on bathroom rights. Aaaaand this quote is when I gave up all hope of our future as a nation, regardless of election outcome.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:18
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HannibalBarca posted:What is Obama's plan, exactly, to fight gerrymandering? Just go balls-out to make sure 2020 is a Democratic wave, something that's basically impossible to guarantee because wave elections are usually a result of external factors? Court challenges? Grassroots advocacy? I'm hugely skeptical that a tidal shift can be achieved before the next census election, especially if the next 4 years are another 4 years of gridlock. Grassroots is probably the best means. Our enemies have in part been successful because of that, it will take time and effort but it makes sense to make the mid terms count. Also the way we deal with the deplorable is unfortunate we should want them to act like Mahleur but worse, We want people like Gohmert praising them while this happens, we want some to start having cyanide die offs, we want SLA types. We want to be able to say that the silent majority of Americans stand against terrorism and to be able to say the GOP is the party of terrorism. We want to be able then to start passing laws to allow these creatures to be rounded up. Tom Guycot posted:So I know the democrats are supposed to take a shellacking in 2018, but just how bad is it going to be? Is there any chance of them winning enough seats to fast track through an impeachment? Considering the impeachment helped Bill I think it should be hoped that they embrace such an action.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:18
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Antti posted:Yeah, but the EMAILS! thing sucked oxygen out for a while, we'll see how it shakes out. Maybe some in the media take a long hard look at themselves and wonder whether EMAILS! was really worth six columns on the front page of the NYT ten days before the election. The media wins no matter if Trump or Clinton win. Both are revenue generators.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:18
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Tom Guycot posted:So I know the democrats are supposed to take a shellacking in 2018, but just how bad is it going to be? Is there any chance of them winning enough seats to fast track through an impeachment? iirc you need two thirds of the Senate to vote for an impeachment and at present there is literally zero chance of either party ever holding 67 out of 100 Senate seats.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:19
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HannibalBarca posted:What is Obama's plan, exactly, to fight gerrymandering? Just go balls-out to make sure 2020 is a Democratic wave, something that's basically impossible to guarantee because wave elections are usually a result of external factors? Court challenges? Grassroots advocacy? I'm hugely skeptical that a tidal shift can be achieved before the next census election, especially if the next 4 years are another 4 years of gridlock. The best chance at fighting gerrymandering, or at least the fastest realistic way, would be a court case decided by a liberal-majority SCOTUS prior to the 2020 census and redistricting. Short of that I doubt we'll see change this decade. Tom Guycot posted:So I know the democrats are supposed to take a shellacking in 2018, but just how bad is it going to be? Is there any chance of them winning enough seats to fast track through an impeachment? It's one of those things that always happens at midterm elections, though 2010 was extra bad. Whatever party doesn't hold the presidency tends to gain major ground in Congress halfway through the president's term. It's hard to say how bad it'll be, though. Frankly, the House will probably have the votes to begin impeachment proceedings after the 2018 midterms. The trial would be held in the Senate, though, and if the Democrats can at least prevent the Republicans from gaining a two-thirds majority, it's unlikely that Clinton would actually be successfully impeached. The House might do it just to hurt her chances at reelection in 2020, but it's doubtful they'd succeed in getting her removed from office.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:19
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Tom Guycot posted:So I know the democrats are supposed to take a shellacking in 2018, but just how bad is it going to be? Is there any chance of them winning enough seats to fast track through an impeachment? Impeachment takes 67 votes in the Senate, so unless the Democrats got absolutely wiped out on this map:  or Hillary actually did something bad enough that, like Watergate, she would have to deal with large-scale Democratic defections in the event of a vote, the answer is no.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:20
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Seriously. The national polling was at +1 to +2 Obama at this time in 2012.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:20
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WampaLord posted:How does one prepare for the Director of the FBI being a loving rear end in a top hat? By not making moronic unforced errors that leave you open to attacks like that?
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Nov 1, 2016 14:21
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Bip Roberts posted:WIFI doesn't cause cancer moron. Listen man, he's used a lot of wifi and now he's incapable of making sense! Isn't that proof to you? 
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Nov 1, 2016 14:21
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Ein Sexmonster posted:Seriously. The national polling was at +1 to +2 Obama at this time in 2012. Yes, it's worth noting we were sweating these last days pretty hard back in 2008 and 2012, but this cake is already baked. We just have to wait and see how good it tastes next Tuesday evening.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:23
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HannibalBarca posted:or Hillary actually did something bad enough that, like Watergate, she would have to deal with large-scale Democratic defections in the event of a vote, the answer is no. Yeah, that's the other caveat I forgot. If there somehow actually is fire to go with the smoke for once in Clinton's life, then she could probably be impeached successfully, though to be fair, if she really did do something Watergate-level illegal, she should be. And, on top of that, she'd probably follow Nixon's example and resign if she got caught doing something actually, legitimately bad, so we'd hopefully be spared the impeachment trial altogether.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:23
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mcmagic posted:By not making moronic unforced errors that leave you open to attacks like that? Oh, I wasn't aware Hillary was directly in control of both Anthony Weiner and the FBI, thanks for the heads up. This poo poo doesn't even have to do with her private server. E: But you'll say "If she never had the server to begin with, none of this would have happened" in which case it would be all Benghazi all the time. They'll find anything.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:23
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Harrow posted:Frankly, the House will probably have the votes to begin impeachment proceedings after the 2018 midterms. The trial would be held in the Senate, though, and if the Democrats can at least prevent the Republicans from gaining a two-thirds majority, it's unlikely that Clinton would actually be successfully impeached. The House might do it just to hurt her chances at reelection in 2020, but it's doubtful they'd succeed in getting her removed from office. Impeaching a Clinton to try to destroy their reputation didn't work last time and won't work this time.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:23
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WampaLord posted:How does one prepare for the Director of the FBI being a loving rear end in a top hat? Firstly, they should have been prepared for some late surprise and had something ready to counter - even if it meant having a SuperPAC dig up dirt in a somewhat unethical fashion, or have something incredibly positive - try to recapture some of the DNC energy in some big event that gets people talking. On this issue specifically, the devices were seized weeks ago. The very first thing Hillary should have done is ask Huma if the FBI will find anything, and then get out in front of the issue. Better to talk about emails at the beginning of October than the beginning of November.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:23
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Night10194 posted:Impeaching a Clinton to try to destroy their reputation didn't work last time and won't work this time. I forget that Bill's approval rating went up after the impeachment trial, didn't it?
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Nov 1, 2016 14:23
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Harrow posted:I forget that Bill's approval rating went up after the impeachment trial, didn't it? YEP! People saw it as badgering bullshit and unfair to him.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:24
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WampaLord posted:Oh, I wasn't aware Hillary was directly in control of both Anthony Weiner and the FBI, thanks for the heads up. Have you heard what her husband has done? Completely unfit to be president.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:24
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WampaLord posted:How does one prepare for the Director of the FBI being a loving rear end in a top hat? I mean she's basically running against years of right wing racism and sexism exploding full force, the Russian intelligence agencies allied with several hacker groups, the directory of the FBI, a congress that is leaking information it's not supposed to be, and a media that either has a decades old grudge against her or is cynically promoting email stories for views. I'm really not sure what her campaign was supposed to do that it hasn't unless it comes out that her ground game was actually garbage all along and the silent majority floods the polls while everyone that isn't a white man over 35 stays home.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:25
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WampaLord posted:Oh, I wasn't aware Hillary was directly in control of both Anthony Weiner and the FBI, thanks for the heads up. There was no wrongdoing at all in connection with Benghazi. The server wasn't a crime but it was dumb, short sighted and showed bad judgement.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:25
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Harrow posted:The best chance at fighting gerrymandering, or at least the fastest realistic way, would be a court case decided by a liberal-majority SCOTUS prior to the 2020 census and redistricting. Short of that I doubt we'll see change this decade. Didn't Bill got impeached largely because the Blue Dogs brought out the knives and turned on him? Impeachment requires a supermajority of 67 yeas and the 105th congress only had 55 republicans. With how much more polarized politics has become since then I just don't see 10+ democrats flipping unless some truly gnarly poo poo comes out against her that actually sticks.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:26
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Harrow posted:I forget that Bill's approval rating went up after the impeachment trial, didn't it? Yeah but this is a *bit* of an apples and oranges situation, though. The First (here's hoping we never have to actually use this term) Clinton Impeachment was basically a sex-shaming witch-hunt led by (as the DPRK News parody twitter account puts it) porcine lecher Newt Gingrich. While I'm not saying that a Second Clinton Impeachment would be an unconditional PR boon for the Republicans, it would probably be less obviously laughable when the Impeachment is over [insert trumped-up corruption scandal here] and led by the bizarrely, unfairly lionized Paul Ryan, Serious man with Serious ideas.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:27
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mcmagic posted:By not making moronic unforced errors that leave you open to attacks like that? Which unforced error did she make again?
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Nov 1, 2016 14:27
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I agree that fixing the 2010 gerrymander will most likely require a Supreme court challenge. The Democrats should certainly try the grassroots approach as well, but frankly it's hard to read about project REDMAP and not conclude that the Republicans are simply better at political strategizing and targeted campaigning. Citizens United doesn't help. I do wonder what the 2010 Democrat party leadership was doing while the Republicans literally locked down the house for at least a decade. Maybe it was inevitable given the off-year election effect.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:27
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Chokes McGee posted:Aaaaand this quote is when I gave up all hope of our future as a nation, regardless of election outcome. "Keep them MEN out of my daughter's bathroom unless that man is Donald Trump then it's just all in good locker room fun."
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Nov 1, 2016 14:27
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Night10194 posted:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/u...type=Multimedia As a former journalist and current physics teacher, there is so much to hate in that headline.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:28
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socialsecurity posted:Which unforced error did she make again? Born a woman, married President Clinton. Radish posted:"Keep them MEN out of my daughter's bathroom unless that man is Donald Trump then it's just all in good locker room fun." More like "Men are rapists by nature, but they won't get my daughter because she's a good girl who protects herself."
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Nov 1, 2016 14:28
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Radish posted:I mean she's basically running against years of right wing racism and sexism exploding full force, the Russian intelligence agencies allied with several hacker groups, the directory of the FBI, a congress that is leaking information it's not supposed to be, and a media that either has a decades old grudge against her or is cynically promoting email stories for views. I'm really not sure what her campaign was supposed to do that it hasn't unless it comes out that her ground game was actually garbage all along and the silent majority floods the polls while everyone that isn't a white man over 35 stays home. I'm always amazed it doesn't get more play that a loving foreign government decided to throw itself at her as hard as it could.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:29
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Charlz Guybon posted:The biggest evidence that Trump’s losing. Aryzing finished. Stiffed his pollster over 700 grand. Was there any doubt that this would happen? As I recall many goons were saying this would happen many months ago. Trump has always done this and his supporters still think he is a champion for the common man. Regardless of all the evidence indicating the exact opposite.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:29
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Harrow posted:Yeah, that's the other caveat I forgot. If there somehow actually is fire to go with the smoke for once in Clinton's life, then she could probably be impeached successfully, though to be fair, if she really did do something Watergate-level illegal, she should be. And, on top of that, she'd probably follow Nixon's example and resign if she got caught doing something actually, legitimately bad, so we'd hopefully be spared the impeachment trial altogether. In the very least we can rest assured that we're electing the most thoroughly vetted president in American history. There's nothing shocking left to learn about HRC.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:30
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meanwhile baron trump soaks everything in, intently watching the ways his father engages the crowds and develops their movement while studying his father's mistakes, knowing some day he'll inherit his fathers right-wing media empire and wealth and then he'll be positioned to be america's 1488th president and truly make america great again
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Nov 1, 2016 14:31
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DeathSandwich posted:Didn't Bill got impeached largely because the Blue Dogs brought out the knives and turned on him? Impeachment requires a supermajority of 67 yeas and the 105th congress only had 55 republicans. With how much more polarized politics has become since then I just don't see 10+ democrats flipping unless some truly gnarly poo poo comes out against her that actually sticks. Bill got impeached because Republicans had a majority in the House. He was not convicted by the Senate because the Republicans didn't have a two thirds majority there. Impeachment is just the process of beginning a trial, which is decided by the House. The actual trial happens in the Senate and a conviction requires two thirds. That was where the Republican scheme against Bill fell apart. Technically the House could impeach Hillary Clinton as many times as they want, but the Senate would never find her guilty.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:31
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Agrajag posted:Was there any doubt that this would happen? As I recall many goons were saying this would happen many months ago. Trump has always done this and his supporters still think he is a champion for the common man. Since the thread title is/was internet armchair psychology, let me give this one a go. "He told me that he's changed and that he'd never do it again"
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Nov 1, 2016 14:31
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Nocturtle posted:I do wonder what the 2010 Democrat party leadership was doing while the Republicans literally locked down the house for at least a decade. Maybe it was inevitable given the off-year election effect. 2010 was basically a perfect storm. It was the peak of the tea-party frenzy that set the conservative grassroots on fire. It was an off-year election, which obviously means lower Democratic turnout. Right wing media, with centrist media acting as a willing second, had already painted Obamacare as an evil socialist government takeover of medicine, which would institute the Death Panels, giving every conservative on earth something to run against. And, perhaps most significantly, 2010 was the swan song for Blue Dog Democrats, who were wiped out almost to a man after managing to outrun partisan sorting for the previous decade. The Democratic Party's strategy and campaign for that year, I can't speak for. I don't know the details of how House campaigns are run from the national level, really. I'm sure there was more that they *could* have done to staunch the bleeding (though I don't know, exactly, what that would have looked like), but I get the sense that the Dems were gonna lose the house in 2010 no matter what.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:31
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Deified Data posted:In the very least we can rest assured that we're electing the most thoroughly vetted president in American history. There's nothing shocking left to learn about HRC. I don't know. What about her 30,000 deleted emails?!?!
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Nov 1, 2016 14:32
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DeathSandwich posted:Didn't Bill got impeached largely because the Blue Dogs brought out the knives and turned on him? Impeachment requires a supermajority of 67 yeas and the 105th congress only had 55 republicans. With how much more polarized politics has become since then I just don't see 10+ democrats flipping unless some truly gnarly poo poo comes out against her that actually sticks. You're thinking of the Senate. The House is the body that votes to impeach, but the Senate requires a two-thirds majority to remove the president from office after that. The Senate didn't have that two-thirds majority, which is why Bill wasn't removed from office.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:32
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Shillary posted:Born a woman, married President Clinton. Well the narrative around the time the bathroom stuff started getting traction was that heroic fathers would murder any "pervert" that went in the same bathroom as their daughters. Obviously this left out the entire concept of "why aren't they concerned with trans-men going into the men's room with their sons" and "wait why are you in there as a man when men aren't supposed to be in the women's room as you claim?" However we haven't heard much of a peep from these guys once it's become clear that not only is Trump a sexual predator of young women (and possible underage girls) but he went into the dressing rooms of pageant contestants to leer at them so he is everything they claim to fear.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:32
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