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Anime Schoolgirl
Nov 28, 2002

Covok posted:

Suffer from anxiety problems and I'm latino: can you blame me for losing it when thinks look good for Trump?
In the scenario of uncertain odds that Trump wins, you have a couple of weeks worth of celebration distraction time for the inbreds to fire live rounds at the air to land on their grandchildrens' heads to escape the country before it becomes Fallout IRL

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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
I'll still bet around 330 based on this:

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin

Covok posted:

Suffer from anxiety problems and I'm latino: can you blame me for losing it when thinks look good for Trump?

As a person who's had anxiety/fixation problems, the best thing I can tell you is to disconnect from politics. At this point you have little-to-no control unless you volunteer with your local Dem office for GOTV, so if you don't want to do it, I'd suggest finding a good book or game or series on Netflix to take you focus for the week.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Northjayhawk posted:

Thats 43% of 18-35 who had no Halloween weekend plans, stayed home sober and watched TV. So, good young Republicans.

:mad:

Some of us have small children!

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

Covok posted:

Suffer from anxiety problems and I'm latino: can you blame me for losing it when thinks look good for Trump?

You have good reason to be afraid. Hell im a male WASP who has a strong.preferance for women and Trump and his Nazi fallowers scare me I can't imagine what you are feeling.

Magres
Jul 14, 2011
This is only USPOL because of how it relates to the horrible ugliness and cruelty that is the American Right (okay it's not really USPOL but I know a lot of the regulars in this thread know a lot about various government systems around the country and we have several who are in related fields), but does anyone have any experience or know anyone with any experience in dealing with disability claims and medicaid claims in North Carolina? Just found out that a goonfriend of mine is struggling horribly with the system, to the point of potential homelessness, and probably the best way to keep him from starving to death on the street is to see if there's any way I can help him get the resources he needs to win his disability case in court next month. Any leads anyone might be able to give me would be appreciated.

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Mel Mudkiper posted:



Calm

Down

Jesus

Christ
Now post the trajectories

:(

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx
here, have an outlier in the other direction

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793569865789542404

Problem with this poll is that half of it was before email poo poo.

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin

Stultus Maximus posted:

:mad:

Some of us have small children!

Or ar just incredibly lame! Like me! :mad:

straight up brolic
Jan 31, 2007

After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

:homebrew::homebrew::homebrew:

You all are legit psychopaths and I love it

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Covok posted:

Suffer from anxiety problems and I'm latino: can you blame me for losing it when thinks look good for Trump?
The best bet is still Trump losing.

Rampant Dwickery
Nov 12, 2011

Comfy and cozy.

Mel Mudkiper posted:

calm the gently caress down you guys

Take a walk outside, do some stretches, and drink a goddamned glass of water. Trump is not going to effing win.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART
I have faith that Dread Abuela will win and usher in 992 years of liberal darkness.

idiotsavant
Jun 4, 2000

FactsAreUseless posted:

This is interesting. How can we put pressure on other countries without military force?

I can't say - sanctions and diplomacy still seem preferable to war, but their effects can still be horrible. If anything I think it'd just be better if more people were aware of the full effects of sanctions so that they'd be used more sparingly or more deliberately.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

Cingulate posted:

Now post the trajectories

:(

Momentum isn't a thing

PenguinKnight
Apr 6, 2009

Covok posted:

We're doomed to Brexit. We're all going to go nationalist, tank our collective economies, then continue to spiral out of control till someone realizes that nationalism is what's killing us.

ahaha no one ever is going to realize that

U-DO Burger
Nov 12, 2007




Tir McDohl posted:

This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there.

Anyone else feeling the same way?

I've refused to vote Republican ever since I was eligible to vote, and this election once again affirms that this is the right thing to do. I don't even bother trying to look impartial for local elections anymore because "chose to align with Republican Party" is pretty much all the evidence you need to know that the person running is going to be poo poo on social issues, if not everything else.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

theflyingorc posted:

Momentum isn't a thing

*Only applies to polls.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

The only meaningful way for Donald Trump to win at the moment is if all polling is hilariously wrong.

If this is the case then at least you get to see the election in which everything we think we know about election analysis is proven distrue!

Guy Goodbody
Aug 31, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo
I vote straight D and am not gonna apologize for that

comingafteryouall
Aug 2, 2011


When Trump wins, will all email be outlawed except for hotel promotions? At least we won't have to answer so many work-related emails then :unsmith:

Andrast
Apr 21, 2010


How do some of you even function in real life if this is enough for you to panic?

Push El Burrito
May 9, 2006

Soiled Meat

Dirt posted:

It's getting uglier by the hour.

Things people sobering up at the bar say about me.

Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.

Libertine posted:

Everyone lives in their own personal reality nowadays and basically accommodates their own opinions whatever they are. That's the dark gift of social media.

It's where this site's motto "The internet makes you stupid" comes from. The internet gives people the ability to sort themselves into self-selecting communities, and from there the dynamics of how social groups work causes them to drift further into more extreme views.

Somebody who voted for Bush in 2000 would have gotten their news from the local network news affiliate or a cable channel like CNN or a local paper, which would have a lean to it, but wasn't hyper-partisan like brietbart or infowars was.

Likewise, somebody who voted for Gore in 2000 would have gotten their news from most of the same sources, though maybe a larger major city paper like the Washington Post, NY Times or LA Times, which generally lean left. Chances are they weren't getting their news from sources like The Other 98% or DailyKos

Anime Schoolgirl
Nov 28, 2002

Magres posted:

This is only USPOL because of how it relates to the horrible ugliness and cruelty that is the American Right (okay it's not really USPOL but I know a lot of the regulars in this thread know a lot about various government systems around the country and we have several who are in related fields), but does anyone have any experience or know anyone with any experience in dealing with disability claims and medicaid claims in North Carolina? Just found out that a goonfriend of mine is struggling horribly with the system, to the point of potential homelessness, and probably the best way to keep him from starving to death on the street is to see if there's any way I can help him get the resources he needs to win his disability case in court next month. Any leads anyone might be able to give me would be appreciated.
The only way I could see an out from that is if your friend hasn't filed for bankruptcy yet. Domestic bankruptcy is nothing like corporate bankruptcy, you won't have all your poo poo and family members repossessed.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Mel Mudkiper posted:



Calm

Down

Jesus

Christ

Where is this from?

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin

theflyingorc posted:

Momentum isn't a thing

But Bernie sanders won a bunch of primaries and caucuses in a row and now he's the Democratic Candidate for the President of the US!

Wait...

Guy Goodbody
Aug 31, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo

comingafteryouall posted:

When Trump wins, will all email be outlawed except for hotel promotions? At least we won't have to answer so many work-related emails then :unsmith:

Trump isn't gonna win

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

theflyingorc posted:

Momentum isn't a thing
Trends propagate through social networks, polls aggregate over multiple days, and poll aggregators smooth out their predictions.

Wayne Knight
May 11, 2006

https://twitter.com/MillerForTexas/status/793568950407733248
"The campaign was retweeting information on Twitter today and inadvertently retweeted a tweet that they were not aware contained a derogatory"

Lots of replies like this: https://twitter.com/keir_lamont/status/793569488893542404
"Well, it clearly wasn't a retweet and your office has already called it a hack... Blaming it on an intern next?"

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

Cingulate posted:

Now post the trajectories

:(

Guy Goodbody
Aug 31, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo

Andrast posted:

How do some of you even function in real life if this is enough for you to panic?

Yeah, you guys need to chill. There's lots of good anime this season. Trump can't change that

comingafteryouall
Aug 2, 2011


ImpAtom posted:

The only meaningful way for Donald Trump to win at the moment is if all polling is hilariously wrong.

If this is the case then at least you get to see the election in which everything we think we know about election analysis is proven distrue!

Enthusiasm for that may be tampered by the realization that the American dream was also proven distrue.

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

wilderthanmild posted:

Where is this from?

New York Times aggregates the aggregates

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

wilderthanmild posted:

Where is this from?
NYT overview:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...dle-span-region


RZA Encryption posted:

https://twitter.com/MillerForTexas/status/793568950407733248
"The campaign was retweeting information on Twitter today and inadvertently retweeted a tweet that they were not aware contained a derogatory"

Lots of replies like this: https://twitter.com/keir_lamont/status/793569488893542404
"Well, it clearly wasn't a retweet and your office has already called it a hack... Blaming it on an intern next?"
Any chance this will have consequences? Whoever is in charge needs to receive the electoral equivalent of tar and feathers.

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

This convinced me, we are doomed. Time to relapse into eating paste

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Cingulate posted:

Now post the trajectories

:(

canepazzo
May 29, 2006



Some more Early Vote numbers for FL:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/793569309255692289

quote:

Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing.

African American share was like 8 when in-person early voting started.

FL Hispanics are now closing in on being 14% of the electorate, driven by huge numbers of low propensity Hispanic Dems/NPA

51% of Hispanic Dems are either first time or 1 of 3 voters, and 57% of Hispanic NPAs. There is definitely a Hispanic surge happening.

Moreover, now almost 31% of all Dems voted are "low propensity" compared to about 25% of GOP, in real people, a 90K edge

But there are as many if not more Dems who voted in 2012 yet to vote than Republicans. And more Dems with VBM than Republicans...

And more "low propensity" Dems voting than GOP...and the electorate is trending more diverse than 2012...

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Andrast posted:

How do some of you even function in real life if this is enough for you to panic?

Not well. This is why I'm in therapy again.

I'm just checking out until election day and going to stay with family. I'm going to hurt my mind if I keep following this stuff close. :smith:

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chumbler
Mar 28, 2010


12% is still too high for comfort.

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