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538 has you all hosed up. Remember when it was 50-50? Nate Silver is very good at synthesizing polls, but is terrible at distilling them into a probability.
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Nov 1, 2016 22:58
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I have a confession USPol: I voted for a Libertarian this year It was a race for state public service commission and the only other person in the race was a Republican and gently caress the Republican Party so hard
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Nov 1, 2016 22:58
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Instant Sunrise posted:"Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma And Arizona.. And North Dakota And New Mexico! We're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan! And then we're going to Washington D.C. to take back the White House! Yeah!!!" I was 12 when this happened and didn't pay the slightest bit of attention to politics. Also, this current election has completely ruined the idea of what a gaffe looks like to me, so if you don't mind my asking: what in the actual hell is it about this thing that tanked Dean's chances, because it just looks like a slightly goofy bit of emotion to me?
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Nov 1, 2016 22:59
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And a couple more anti-arzying tweets for good measure: https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572048740184076 https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/793572542141308928
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Nov 1, 2016 22:59
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hypothetically, what happens to both the trump toxxers and the clinton toxxers if it's a tied race with mcmullin taking utah and mcmullin gets picked
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Nov 1, 2016 22:59
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Pakled posted:I have a confession USPol: Should have written in Cher.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:00
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chumbler posted:12% is still too high for comfort. Then adjust your comfort level.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:00
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I'm not concerned about the true underlying secular trend, but about what the mood will be on Nov 8th  straight up brolic posted:538 has you all hosed up. Remember when it was 50-50? Nate Silver is very good at synthesizing polls, but is terrible at distilling them into a probability. chumbler posted:12% is still too high for comfort.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:00
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Has a there ever actually been a case of a plausible controversial tweet being blamed on hacking actually being proven to be true? Sure, sometimes politicians' accounts are hacked but they always seem to say something outlandish or very obviously fake.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:02
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Tir McDohl posted:This election has really turned me into a hardline partisan. At this point it is clear that I cannot get along with the kind of psychopath who would vote for Trump. Kinda scary that around 40% of the electorate might as well be aliens to me now. I don't even want to engage in discussion with them. Scorched earth. I'd be pruning my Facebook heavily if I had not quit it years ago because of the conservative bully pulpit there. Yeah. Like at the bare minimum if you are voting for Trump, you have to be okay with his incredible racism and sexism, and with giving those views an international platform and having them represent our country. If that's how someone feels, I do not want to interact with them in any way.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:02
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Endorph posted:hypothetically, what happens to both the trump toxxers and the clinton toxxers if it's a tied race with mcmullin taking utah and mcmullin gets picked That's when it's time to bring back hellbanning
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Nov 1, 2016 23:02
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one more
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Nov 1, 2016 23:02
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Endorph posted:hypothetically, what happens to both the trump toxxers and the clinton toxxers if it's a tied race with mcmullin taking utah and mcmullin gets picked They all get banned. If you toxxed for Trump and he loses, you get banned and if you toxxed for Clinton and she loses you get banned
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Nov 1, 2016 23:03
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DICKS FOR DINNER posted:I was 12 when this happened and didn't pay the slightest bit of attention to politics. Also, this current election has completely ruined the idea of what a gaffe looks like to me, so if you don't mind my asking: what in the actual hell is it about this thing that tanked Dean's chances, because it just looks like a slightly goofy bit of emotion to me? Lucky for you, FiveThirtyEight just did a documentary on this very subject. tl;dr: dean was speaking to a VERY loud room and was yelling over the crowd. The news media all had a feed directly from his mic that was isolated from a lot of the crowd noise. so people in the room hear his shouting over the crowd and it sounded normal. the people on TV just heard this crazy guy yelling and then going "yyyeaaaargh!" and then the news networks and the cable channels wouldn't stop replaying the scream, the AP counted it as something like 633 times in a 4 day period. And that doesn't include local stations playing the scream or the late night comedians playing it and making jokes. Instant Sunrise fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Nov 1, 2016 |
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Nov 1, 2016 23:03
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Has a there ever actually been a case of a plausible controversial tweet being blamed on hacking actually being proven to be true? I know that no man's sky account likely got hacked when they tweeted the game was a mistake.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:03
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Mel Mudkiper posted:one more I just want to let you know that I appreciate what you're doing here.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:03
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canepazzo posted:And a couple more anti-arzying tweets for good measure: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/09/29/the-incredibly-stable-2016-campaign/ Unshakeable Wang agrees
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Nov 1, 2016 23:03
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Andrast posted:How do some of you even function in real life if this is enough for you to panic? Who says we do?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:04
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Mel Mudkiper posted:one more I think we can all agree that this election has definitively proven Ohio is, in fact, a garbage state.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:05
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comingafteryouall posted:I think we can all agree that this election has definitively proven Ohio is, in fact, a garbage state. Go Cubs
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Nov 1, 2016 23:05
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VikingofRock posted:Yeah. Like at the bare minimum if you are voting for Trump, you have to be okay with his incredible racism and sexism, and with giving those views an international platform and having them represent our country. If that's how someone feels, I do not want to interact with them in any way. But you do. They bag your groceries, they're the nice old man who served in WWII, they're your next door neighbor, they're your kid's elementary school teacher. There's no getting away from it and there's no end to the "ick" factor.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:05
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Andrast posted:How do some of you even function in real life if this is enough for you to panic? Pretty well I think. I teach a couple of comp classes. We read that Judith Butler chapter on Rodney King. (Some students got it.) We watch music videos. They're reading about global warming. And then I have three seminars and that takes sooo much time. And I hang out with my wife and that's good. And then I read this thread in my free time and get anxious. But I'm so active most the time I don't have time to melt down over Trump. So ya, I think I function alright. Goddamn, I can't wait to vote. My only regret is I have to feed my vote into a machine instead of personally jamming it down Cheeto Benito's throat.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:05
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Lemming posted:http://election.princeton.edu/2016/09/29/the-incredibly-stable-2016-campaign/ My favorite discovery of this election season is that Sam Wang hates Nate Silver
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Nov 1, 2016 23:06
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comingafteryouall posted:I think we can all agree that this election has definitively proven Ohio is, in fact, a garbage state. Was that ever in doubt?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:06
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I hope 538 is jumping the gun and the racist pumpkin man gets severely owned.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:05
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Magres posted:This is only USPOL because of how it relates to the horrible ugliness and cruelty that is the American Right (okay it's not really USPOL but I know a lot of the regulars in this thread know a lot about various government systems around the country and we have several who are in related fields), but does anyone have any experience or know anyone with any experience in dealing with disability claims and medicaid claims in North Carolina? Just found out that a goonfriend of mine is struggling horribly with the system, to the point of potential homelessness, and probably the best way to keep him from starving to death on the street is to see if there's any way I can help him get the resources he needs to win his disability case in court next month. Any leads anyone might be able to give me would be appreciated. From your post, I'd take it that they've been denied and are working their way through the appeals process? Point them to a local attorney who practices in that area. Even if they're dead broke, for social security disability, the norm is not up front payment. http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-much-does-social-security-disability-lawyer-cost.html If that's not an option, it's a federal program, so there's plenty out there on the internet, google up what you can. If there's additional medical documentation your friend needs, move fast. Many providers can be slow to respond to record requests.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:06
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Guy Goodbody posted:They all get banned. If you toxxed for Trump and he loses, you get banned and if you toxxed for Clinton and she loses you get banned Soulfucker posted:Gentlemen! Both Donald and Hillary will mutually destroy each other in the upcoming debate, just according to the intricate plan of the next President of the United States. THIS HAS ALL BEEN HIS MASTER PLAN FROM THE VERY BEGINNING.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:07
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Crow Jane posted:Was that ever in doubt? I went to one of the small liberal arts colleges in Ohio, so I had a skewed perception. No more.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:07
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Northjayhawk posted:Well, its probably fine it you want to appoint a Republican to Commerce or Energy. Somewhere Roscoe Conkling is laughing... 
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Nov 1, 2016 23:08
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Covok posted:We're doomed to Brexit. We're all going to go nationalist, tank our collective economies, then continue to spiral out of control till someone realizes that nationalism is what's killing us. Nationalism isn't the disease, it's a symptom, and what's really killing us is multinational corporate capital gaining more and more power to override democratically elected governments trying to protect the interests of their people. There's really no such thing as an "American" megacorporation, they're all publically traded and owned by international investors from all over the world. In the old feudal systems, the local lord knew that if he taxed his serfs too harshly, they'd revolt and storm the castle. In modern feudalism, each lord owns a small interest in a million fields and lives half a world away, and starved serfs are just another writeoff on the balance sheet.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:09
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Chump Farts posted:I hope 538 is jumping the gun and the racist pumpkin man gets severely owned. Last time it was ~70% Nate basically said it meant four equally likely outcomes Close Trump win Close Clinton win Obama-level Clinton win Double-digit Clinton win Its easy to be scared by the 70/30 split, but remember Nate considers Trump winning as equally likely as Clinton winning by the highest percent in modern American politics
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Nov 1, 2016 23:09
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Mel Mudkiper posted:My favorite discovery of this election season is that Sam Wang hates Nate Silver
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Nov 1, 2016 23:09
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comingafteryouall posted:I went to one of the small liberal arts colleges in Ohio, so I had a skewed perception. No more. Which one?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:09
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canepazzo posted:Some more Early Vote numbers for FL: This is all very good news yes? It seems that the Black vote is starting to catch up and the Hispanic vote is beating past results. Am I looking at this correctly?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:10
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Chump Farts posted:I hope 538 is jumping the gun and the racist pumpkin man gets severely owned. Now yes, Trump is real loving bad, but a lot of this anxiety seems to be "Hillary isn't winning by a large enough margin"
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Nov 1, 2016 23:10
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I remember when I used to Arzy back in 2008. I've since learned that everything will be okay and that most people who Arzy either forget 2008 or 2012 or simply didn't follow those elections. Y'all need a heavy dose of Xanax.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:10
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Mel Mudkiper posted:calm the gently caress down you guys How the gently caress do you expect anyone to calm down with the prospect of Trump winning and all he and his supporters disgusting vitriol being validated?!?! THE loving FBI IS ACTIVELY WORKING TO TANK HILLARY RIGHT NOW
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Nov 1, 2016 23:11
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Except for GBV and DEVO Nothing seems to redeem Ohio
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Nov 1, 2016 23:11
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Agrajag posted:How the gently caress do you expect anyone to calm down with the prospect of Trump winning and all he and his supporters disgusting vitriol being validated?!?! Oh nooooo 
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Nov 1, 2016 23:11
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Guy Goodbody posted:They all get banned. If you toxxed for Trump and he loses, you get banned and if you toxxed for Clinton and she loses you get banned In addition to this, if Hillary loses, then anyone with the gang tag shown on my posts gets perma-banned.
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Nov 1, 2016 23:12
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