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Muggsy posted:Are there any handy guides out there that explain American election data and statistics? Like, things that explain the implications of states having a candidate at +4 or something? I have some friends that are interested in learning about the electoral system, and I am admittedly curious too. It's mostly down to sampling (long wikipedia article on it, but if you have any chance to take a university level statistics course it is absolutely objectively worth your time to do so). You want a sample of likely voters that are representative of what you know about the demographics of an area in order to construct a poll that you believe will logically mirror the final result. Some polls are better than others, larger sample is usually better if it remains representative, you want to know about any potential bias (there are both liberal and conservative organizations who have historically put out unnaturally favorable polls for Ds and Rs). Ideally you want to be looking at a poll that is totally objective, large sample, representative, and without human bias or error, but that is virtually impossible to guarantee in any poll because of humans. All of those factors sort of come together in a gross goulash to form a poll and then other sites (like 538) are basically poll aggregating and trying to break down the data to provide analysis which is valuable but also suffers from the same problems. Bathing yourself deeply in the blood of data analysis is sometimes fun, sometimes maddening; however, it's always worth learning more about.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:31
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rscott posted:Paladins need 17CHA though, how did he make it in the first place?
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Nov 2, 2016 00:32
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TyrantWD posted:You are again choosing to ignore early voting data. Obama had pulled ahead in Florida by this point in 2012, the Democrats are still trailing this year. Democrats are trailing their 2012 numbers in NC (when they lost), the Republicans are doing better than 2012 in NC. We have data showing the Hillary GOTV advantage turning to to be more fiction that reality. We have no idea when Obama pulled ahead in 2012, because all anyone has are raw party registration ballot data. Please post the vote totals from 4 years ago today if you have them though, that would be interesting. All I have are the final 2012 and 2008 numbers.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:32
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Covok posted:He only can do that a number of times per day equal to 1/2 his Paladin level + his Charisma modifier (min 1), he's not going to waste that considering his 6 Charisma. Though, he's probably already fallen and become a Fighter of equivalent level at this point unless he has the most liberal DM ever. Lamestream media 
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Nov 2, 2016 00:32
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Covok posted:He only can do that a number of times per day equal to 1/2 his Paladin level + his Charisma modifier (min 1), he's not going to waste that considering his 6 Charisma. Though, he's probably already fallen and become a Fighter of equivalent level at this point unless he has the most liberal DM ever. Trump has at least a 16 charisma. It's his 6 wisdom that keeps putting his silver foot in his mouth.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:32
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TyrantWD posted:Everyone here has been working off the same sources (Elect Project and the journalists that specialize in certain states like Jon Ralston). No one has actually posted a source showing Hillary doing better against Trump than Obama did against Romney (other than in CO and VA which aren't really swing states anymore). Yeah, a couple of people did. I have no idea where because this thread gets like 200 posts an hour, though
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Nov 2, 2016 00:32
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Gyges posted:We have no idea when Obama pulled ahead in 2012, because all anyone has are raw party registration ballot data.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:33
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Thaddius the Large posted:What does it say about this election I'm just relieved Trump didn't try to lay on hands and cure him? Trump has laid his hands on enough people already.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:33
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Nessus posted:Convincing the GM that Hillary had a 5 CHA so if you think about it he's already in the lead, hugely Maybe his character gets some kind of temporary cha boost when he defeats primary enemies
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Nov 2, 2016 00:33
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rscott posted:Paladins need 17CHA though, how did he make it in the first place? 3e doesn't have that restriction. The real question is how he was allowed to do that while aligned with Chaos. Unless they're doing 4e which I don't think has any of those limitations. Suboptimal build, no matter what. I mean, then again, what else could you choose with a spread of Str: 2, Con:1, Dex: 2, Int: -1, Wis: -5, and Cha: 6. Those are the scores, not the modifiers. Not sure how he rolled those negatives on 3d6...
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Nov 2, 2016 00:35
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TyrantWD posted:Everyone here has been working off the same sources (Elect Project and the journalists that specialize in certain states like Jon Ralston). No one has actually posted a source showing Hillary doing better against Trump than Obama did against Romney (other than in CO and VA which aren't really swing states anymore). Aside from the states Hillary is doing better in, Hillary's not doing better.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:35
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rscott posted:Maybe his character gets some kind of temporary cha boost when he defeats primary enemies
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Nov 2, 2016 00:35
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CannonFodder posted:Trump has at least a 16 charisma. It's his 6 wisdom that keeps putting his silver foot in his mouth. You would think he would have stats that would make him more of a grand wizard though.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:35
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A Winner is Jew posted:You would think he would have stats that would make him more of a grand wizard though.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:37
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Donkwich posted:Trump has laid his hands on enough people already.  Bravo. I needed that laugh.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:39
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Covok posted:3e doesn't have that restriction. The real question is how he was allowed to do that while aligned with Chaos. Unless they're doing 4e which I don't think has any of those limitations. Suboptimal build, no matter what. I mean, then again, what else could you choose with a spread of Str: 2, Con:1, Dex: 2, Int: -1, Wis: -5, and Cha: 6. Those are the scores, not the modifiers. Not sure how he rolled those negatives on 3d6... I got all my D&D books from yard sales and goodwill/salvation army stores cuz I was a poor so all I ever played was 2e TSR put a blurb in the beginning of their players handbook that talked about how the use of he/his as a pronoun wasn't meant to discourge girls from playing or exclude them, it was just editorial convention which was pretty progressive for 1989 or w/e the book was published
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Nov 2, 2016 00:41
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Muggsy posted:Are there any handy guides out there that explain American election data and statistics? Like, things that explain the implications of states having a candidate at +4 or something? I have some friends that are interested in learning about the electoral system, and I am admittedly curious too. Sure. In all cases states can change categories slowly over time as people move around and ethnic minorities grow. For example, California and Missouri used to be competitive, now they are really not, at all. Dark Red Hellholes In these states, a Generic Republican should win by 20% or more. No one even think about these states as competitive, and if a Dem is within 10, it is shocking. UT (weird exception this year because Mormons are aghast at Trump and Even McMullin is running a strong 3rd party) WY Nebraska's 3rd CD and Nebraska Statewide ID OK WV AR KY KS AL ND TN Very Red States In a gigantic landslide, these might be close, but the Republican will probably still win. SD LA AK Nebraska's 1st CD Texas (keep an eye on it, demographics changing fast with Latinos growing) MT MS Reliable Red States These should usually be around +10% GOP. Dems don't target these unless they are running up the score. A Dem sometimes wins one, Obama picked off Indiana once. IN SC MO AZ (omg Hillary might win this. Like Texas, demographics are changing) GA Competitive Some lean more to the left than the right. I'll start with the most GOP leaning state and go down. Nebraska's 2nd CD (OK, this isn't a state, but should usually be +5% GOP) OH VA IA NC FL (This is about where the zero point is for a generic GOP vs a generic Dem) NH CO NV PA (The GOP's white whale, should normally be about +5% Dem) WI Maine's 2nd CD MN Reliable Blue States GOP only targets these to run up the score, should be about +10% Dem. Its a short list. NM (Good old New Mexico. For a long time it was the inexplicable big blue square in the sea of red. Now they are joined by CO, and soon AZ and hopefully TX in future elections) MI (lol Trump, why the gently caress are you wasting time in Michigan?) Very Blue States OR WA Maine Statewide Blue Strongholds There's a lot of them. These should normally be near +20% Dem on up. The GOP isn't winning here anytime soon, unless something weird happens or the GOP shifts a lot farther left. IL CT NJ DE Maine's 1st CD CA MA MD RI NY VT HI (lol, GWB's campaign once thought this state was in play for a couple days and sent Cheney there) DC (Obama won the district by 84% in 2012) Northjayhawk fucked around with this message at 00:45 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 00:43
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Just one more week until Election 2020 gets underway for real!!
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Nov 2, 2016 00:43
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Libertine posted:It's mostly down to sampling (long wikipedia article on it, but if you have any chance to take a university level statistics course it is absolutely objectively worth your time to do so). Thanks! This really does look interesting. I'm taking three math courses already this semester, but I'll definitely consider Statistics as an elective next time.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:43
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Panic! at Nabisco posted:Kenyon alums! This was quite a few pages ago, but yes! 2011 grad.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:43
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theflyingorc posted:Yeah, a couple of people did. I have no idea where because this thread gets like 200 posts an hour, though Found this again: canepazzo posted:Some more Early Vote numbers for FL: quote:Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:44
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Nessus posted:Don't you see, Hillary hasn't yet matched the final tallies with early voting, so she's obviously behind. Once you've accepted this we will move on to the next yet-more-tedious slice of how I am correct and you are not Florida's total early vote looks like it's going to surpass 2012's. There were something like 4.7 million early votes in Florida in 2012, and right now the numbers are almost at 4.1 million with 1.2 million absentee ballots still out.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:44
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rscott posted:I got all my D&D books from yard sales and goodwill/salvation army stores cuz I was a poor so all I ever played was 2e Believe it or not, but the lack of a neutral gender pronoun has caused some real problems in rpg book writing. I've seen people do "he on even chapters, her on odd chapters" and other odd rules because, for the most part, people don't want to openly exclude 50% of population from buying their product and try to not come off as bias. But, boy oh boy, are trpgs a boy's club that no one has sufficiently challenged. Though, people have tried to unfortunate results. Anyhoo, if you're interested, the trad games subforum has a lot on the subject and 3e is actually available for free online due to the dumbness that is the OGL license. Anyhoo, about the election.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:45
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TyrantWD posted:Where is Hillary outperforming Obama and where is the RNC under-performing Romney? Outperforming Obama's actual vote totals on election day, or out performing Obama's poll standing a week before before the election? Because the first one is meaningless, because doesn't take into account the Demos superior GOTV efforts.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:46
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Covok posted:Believe it or not, but the lack of a neutral gender pronoun has caused some real problems in rpg book writing. I've seen people do "he on even chapters, her on odd chapters" and other odd rules because, for the most part, people don't want to openly exclude 50% of population from buying their product and try to not come off as bias. But, boy oh boy, are trpgs a boy's club that no one has sufficiently challenged. Though, people have tried to unfortunate results. "Them"
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Nov 2, 2016 00:46
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TyrantWD posted:You are again choosing to ignore early voting data. Obama had pulled ahead in Florida by this point in 2012, the Democrats are still trailing this year. Democrats are trailing their 2012 numbers in NC (when they lost), the Republicans are doing better than 2012 in NC. We have data showing the Hillary GOTV advantage turning to to be more fiction that reality. What is this data? Where are you getting any of this from? 
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Nov 2, 2016 00:47
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Covok posted:Believe it or not, but the lack of a neutral gender pronoun has caused some real problems in rpg book writing. I've seen people do "he on even chapters, her on odd chapters" and other odd rules because, for the most part, people don't want to openly exclude 50% of population from buying their product and try to not come off as bias. But, boy oh boy, are trpgs a boy's club that no one has sufficiently challenged. Though, people have tried to unfortunate results. This has always pissed me off -- they has been the singular gender-neutral pronoun for centuries, why do
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Nov 2, 2016 00:47
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Majorian posted:What is this data? Where are you getting any of this from? Trump invents his own reality, so too can his supporters, with his blessing
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Nov 2, 2016 00:47
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Covok posted:Believe it or not, but the lack of a neutral gender pronoun has caused some real problems in rpg book writing. I've seen people do "he on even chapters, her on odd chapters" and other odd rules because, for the most part, people don't want to openly exclude 50% of population from buying their product and try to not come off as bias. But, boy oh boy, are trpgs a boy's club that no one has sufficiently challenged. Though, people have tried to unfortunate results. I'm a big believer in third person they for gender neutral language.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:48
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That's a good write-up, although calling PA "competitive" is a bit of a stretch. It pretty much never turns red outside of landslide elections.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:48
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If you unskew the polls you will find that they really say you should surrender yourself to lucifer and write-in a pentagram on your ballot. It's the weirdest thing.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:48
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Northjayhawk posted:Sure. In all cases states can change categories slowly over time as people move around and ethnic minorities grow. For example, California and Missouri used to be competitive, now they are really not, at all. Huh. Maybe it's because I'm a Stupid Newbie, but I did not realize the states have shifted like they have. There is some really cool information here, thanks! 
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Nov 2, 2016 00:48
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Libertine posted:I never discuss politics with anyone at work. Or really any touchy or personal subjects whatsoever, and totally refuse to interact with coworkers on social media until one of us is no longer employed at the same place. I have some friends who tell me their coworkers constantly berate them with their political opinions and I can't imagine anything more maddening to be honest. I truly feel sympathy for some of the people and the awful poo poo they've heard and your anecdote doesn't even crack the top ten which in itself is astonishing.
We were a small company but if we had an HR department I would have roasted him in an exit interview. That's just the political stuff he's bring up without any compunction. I had my political identity pretty well figured out before I started there, but I think he made me just a bit more liberal, probably out of spite for having to bite my tongue. So yeah don't talk politics at work, especially X 1 billion if you have direct reports. Bhaal fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 00:49
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Libertine posted:I never discuss politics with anyone at work. Or really any touchy or personal subjects whatsoever, and totally refuse to interact with coworkers on social media until one of us is no longer employed at the same place. I have some friends who tell me their coworkers constantly berate them with their political opinions and I can't imagine anything more maddening to be honest. I truly feel sympathy for some of the people and the awful poo poo they've heard and your anecdote doesn't even crack the top ten which in itself is astonishing. I specifically am not giving my republican coworker who I'm on real good terms with a ton of poo poo about trump because it will result in petty sniping forever when anyone on either side does something bad. It's worked out well so far. The militant ones though, gently caress'em. I burned the hell out of the bridge I had with one kid over vilerat/sean smith, when he kept posting poo poo on Facebook about how this was all obama's fault etc
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Nov 2, 2016 00:49
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Samuel Clemens posted:https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/793574975877767168 Over half of those polls are 1 week or older.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:50
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Lord Hydronium posted:What's the context on these, national? It doesn't seem to match with RCP. I'm curious on this too, none of the polls above C+7 are showing up on RCP on either 2- or 4-way.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:50
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Augus posted:If you unskew the polls you will find that they really say you should surrender yourself to lucifer and write-in a pentagram on your ballot. So vote for Hillary?
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Nov 2, 2016 00:51
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canepazzo posted:Trump's GOTV is going to win Nevada: According to 10,000 simulations of the elections by 538, if Trump loses North Carolina he loses 95% of the time. NYTimes analysis of the early vote in North Carolina has Clinton up 49-43.3% Pretty in depth http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html Early voting in Nevada also suggests Hillary has a healthy lead. Trump only has a 9 % chance to win if he loses Nevada . http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/ With Trump losing both, I have to think his chances are very small. On the other hand , I expect the polls to be off by 3 or 4 points one way or the other. Just checked on NY Times path to victory. If Hillary wins North Carolina & Nevada, and assuming she also wins Virginia and Colorado (which I can't see not happening if she won the former), then Clinton has 59 ways to win and Trump only has 3 ways to win, while there are two chances for a tie. He has to win Florida, possible, and Pennsylvannia which seems unlikely unless the Transit strike screws us.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:51
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By the way the Trump supporters on my facebook wall are becoming more and more incomprehensible every day so I'll assume that means Hillary is winning.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:53
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Minnesota, the competitive state that hasn't voted R since 1972.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:53
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