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BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

greatn posted:

The universe won't collapse. It's going to keep accelerating apart until all matter disintegrates.

Pfft, I'm a Big Crunch kind of guy, take your Big Rip and stick a finger in a pie is what I say!

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meristem
Oct 2, 2010
I HAVE THE ETIQUETTE OF STIFF AND THE PERSONALITY OF A GIANT CUNT.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

We are long overdue for a Trumpian meltdown and I expect at least one more before election day.
I'm not sure this is going to happen, to be honest. Trump's gotten a huge list of people to scam out of this election, and that's got to count for something with him. (Funnily how in the end he turns out to be just like a generic Republican presidential candidate in this regard.) A meltdown at this point would have to be generated by Clinton, by calling him out.

Tricky D
Apr 1, 2005

I love um!

AriadneThread posted:

so they don't even have to keep coming up with different, increasingly petty reasons for impeachment? they could just vote on the same charge over and over?

As absurd as that sounds, with the supreme court in quasi-partisan deadlock there isn't really anything to stop them either way.

Tricky D fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Nov 2, 2016

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
If the Democrats can't retake the Senate, we are better off having Trump burn everything to the ground immediately, rather than wading through 4 years of Chaffetz and Gowdy driven poo poo before a polished GOP turd comes in and burns everything to the ground.

Tom Guycot
Oct 15, 2008

Chief of Governors


Rookersh posted:

I would love if the GOP impeached Clinton, she gracefully stepped down, and then we had President Kaine.

Because as long as he doesn't gently caress it up ( and he wouldn't ), he'd have

- a better approval rating then Hillary since he isn't Hillary

and

- a better approval rating then the GOP for the stunt they just pulled.

And then we'd get to watch the GOP clench up hard as they realize they just guaranteed the Presidency to the Dems for the next 8/16 years.

I don't want a woman who has worked so hard, gone through so much poo poo, and is the first and so far only female president ever to step down and have to take that poo poo on top of everything else.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

theflyingorc posted:

ok, so I'm trying to understand the senate race

Using the data from here:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

Currently, the senate is 54 Republicans vs 46 Democrats & Independents

To have control of the senate, Democrats need to gain 4 seats in the current election that they didn't have before (assuming Hillary wins):

538 currently has Democrats definitely flipping seats in the following states:

Wisconsin
Illinois

They currently have an advantage , but are within MoE, in the following states:
Missouri
New Hampshire
Indiana
Pennsylvania

However, they are threatened to lose one senate seat they already held, even though they are up in the state:
Nevada

So currently, they're projected to gain 6 when they need 4, if they lose Nevada they have to gain 5.

That seems...still pretty feasible.

Yup, that's a good understanding of the situation. Throw North Carolina into the possible pickup pile, too, the Dem challenger is polling lower than the Republican incumbent, but only by about 1%, so GOTV could make the difference there.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

Pfft, I'm a Big Crunch kind of guy, take your Big Rip and stick a finger in a pie is what I say!

Why am I not surprised your opinions on physics are as wrong as everything else

speng31b
May 8, 2010

TyrantWD posted:

If the Democrats can't retake the Senate, we are better off having Trump burn everything to the ground immediately, rather than wading through 4 years of Chaffetz and Gowdy driven poo poo before a polished GOP turd comes in and burns everything to the ground.

Ah yes the totally sane and rational philosophy of accelerationism, it's about that time again.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

speng31b posted:

Ah yes the totally sane and rational philosophy of accelerationism, it's about that time again.

i see you've met tyrantWD, he's sort of an idiot

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

TyrantWD posted:

If the Democrats can't retake the Senate, we are better off having Trump burn everything to the ground immediately, rather than wading through 4 years of Chaffetz and Gowdy driven poo poo before a polished GOP turd comes in and burns everything to the ground.

No.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

TyrantWD posted:

If the Democrats can't retake the Senate, we are better off having Trump burn everything to the ground immediately, rather than wading through 4 years of Chaffetz and Gowdy driven poo poo before a polished GOP turd comes in and burns everything to the ground.

Accelerationism is not the answer. Just ask a typical Muslim or hispanic or African-American whether they'd rather have 4 years of Trump or 4 years of Hillary with a red Senate.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

TyrantWD posted:

If the Democrats can't retake the Senate, we are better off having Trump burn everything to the ground immediately, rather than wading through 4 years of Chaffetz and Gowdy driven poo poo before a polished GOP turd comes in and burns everything to the ground.
how about we just burn your account to the ground immediately, rather than wading through your posts until you're banned or probated for being too dumb to exist

Apraxin
Feb 22, 2006

General-Admiral
In lighter news, this warm up for Hillary's appearance inf Ft. Lauderdale is amazingly goofy:
https://twitter.com/BBCRajiniV/status/793604534786527237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

AriadneThread
Feb 17, 2011

The Devil sounds like smoke and honey. We cannot move. It is too beautiful.


BetterToRuleInHell posted:

Pfft, I'm a Big Crunch kind of guy, take your Big Rip and stick a finger in a pie is what I say!

the universe is the fart of god, actually

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

meristem posted:

I'm not sure this is going to happen, to be honest. Trump's gotten a huge list of people to scam out of this election, and that's got to count for something with him. (Funnily how in the end he turns out to be just like a generic Republican presidential candidate in this regard.) A meltdown at this point would have to be generated by Clinton, by calling him out.

USPol goonies, please accept that there is no sex tape coming, there is no meltdown coming. Trump has no debates coming up, has no use for media interviews other than O'Reilly, Hannity or Fox & Friends morning show -- meaning we're not going to be getting some major Trump soundbite. He's going to be going to rallies so that he can continue to repeat his lines about rigged elections and Crooked Hillary and emails.

Hillary will continue to dominate the news, which is bad for her. Even if it's news about Comey getting poo poo on, it's still Hillary related and Hillary being in the news is not good for her.

This is the state of the election for the next eight days. Deal with it.

Mokelumne Trekka
Nov 22, 2015

Soon.

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

This is the state of the election for the next eight days. Deal with it.

6 days bro

not counting election day

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


rscott posted:

Why? She doesn't need amnesty for anything

I know that, but it would stop every single republican fishing expedition in its tracks. Amnesty doesn't require admission of guilt as far as I know.

Instead of a few months or years of the FBI dicking around followed by a Comey press conference everything would be "Was that before Jan 19th 2017? Yes? No case can be made so an investigation will not be opened nor will any subpoenas be issued"

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html

quote:

Some black voters, like Ronald Brooks, said they simply needed more time to make a decision this year. It was just easier, Mr. Brooks said, in 2008 and 2012, when he had voted for Mr. Obama.

Mr. Brooks, 31, a mental health worker, was still weighing his options on Tuesday morning. He said he was worried about Mrs. Clinton’s trustworthiness, given that she had set up a private email server as secretary of state. “What were you trying to hide?” he said.

ok who the gently caress sees the GOP systematically trying to cut off their access to government and even considers rewarding their presidential nominee with their vote (this is specifically in the county in NC where ~94% of the early voting locations were closed because the GOP decided it had too many black people democrats in it)

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

USPol goonies, please accept that there is no sex tape coming, there is no meltdown coming. Trump has no debates coming up, has no use for media interviews other than O'Reilly, Hannity or Fox & Friends morning show -- meaning we're not going to be getting some major Trump soundbite. He's going to be going to rallies so that he can continue to repeat his lines about rigged elections and Crooked Hillary and emails.

Hillary will continue to dominate the news, which is bad for her. Even if it's news about Comey getting poo poo on, it's still Hillary related and Hillary being in the news is not good for her.

This is the state of the election for the next eight days. Deal with it.

Would you like to make a prediction, rear end in a top hat?

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

Sky Shadowing posted:

Are... are the GOP idiots? Moving to impeach HRC would be a catastrophe for them, especially since around 1/2 the Senate, at least, will be Democrats who will just use the opportunity to rail against the GOP publicly for their petty partisanship.

People who vote Republican reward Republicans for being incredibly huge shitheads, and if they do it far enough away from an election (ie more than 1 week away), everyone else forgets they ever did anything. See how not confirming Garland has had zero negative repercussions for any Republicans.

Inferior Third Season
Jan 15, 2005

TyrantWD posted:

If the Democrats can't retake the Senate, we are better off having Trump burn everything to the ground immediately, rather than wading through 4 years of Chaffetz and Gowdy driven poo poo before a polished GOP turd comes in and burns everything to the ground.
Yeah, this is the thing people don't seem to get. This election only has one thing at stake: the Supreme Court. And for the Democrats, this means needing both the presidency and the Senate. The presidency alone does nothing, and it is difficult to see 2020 going much better for Hillary than this round after four years of investigations and impeachments and not being able to achieve anything on her agenda.

EDIT: This is not to say that I agree with accelerationism, but I think people are underestimating how terrible it will be if Hillary wins but doesn't get the Senate.

Inferior Third Season fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Nov 2, 2016

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

speng31b posted:

Ah yes the totally sane and rational philosophy of accelerationism, it's about that time again.

Trumpism is going to be back in 2020, just under someone who is less of an idiot. The GOP losing the Supreme Court is probably the only thing that will force some change as a bunch of their pet issues will no longer be on the table. With Hillary in the WH and a GOP Senate, you are just postponing the inevitable.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Shifty Pony posted:

I want Trollbama to make one last appearance on Jan 19th and give HRC a blanket amnesty for everything before that date.

I know it won't happen but the absolute white hot rage of the resulting GOP meltdown is still very nice to think about.
Only if Comey dies of natural causes before then. And he makes the announcement the day after.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Inferior Third Season posted:

Yeah, this is the thing people don't seem to get. This election only has one thing at stake: the Supreme Court. And for the Democrats, this means needing both the presidency and the Senate. The presidency alone does nothing, and it is difficult to see 2020 going much better for Hillary than this round after four years of investigations and impeachments and not being able to achieve anything on her agenda.

Donald Trump 2016: gently caress It, The Age Of Man Is Over, It Is The Fire's Turn

(Credit to Owen Ellickson who really needs to find investors in a radio play)

porfiria
Dec 10, 2008

by Modern Video Games
I'd like the discuss the poll aggregators for a moment:

On the one hand, the Daily Kos/PEC/Upshot models seem to be working off the assumption that Clinton's been up all year, there are 7 days left, she's probably going to win. Is that why their numbers for Clinton are so high even when things are tight? Whereas the 538 seems vastly more swingy--Nate likes to talk about undecideds and such. Is that really why his model is so different or is something else going on? Did he simply include a higher "uncertainty" factor than everyone else?

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.

TyrantWD posted:

Trumpism is going to be back in 2020, just under someone who is less of an idiot. The GOP losing the Supreme Court is probably the only thing that will force some change as a bunch of their pet issues will no longer be on the table. With Hillary in the WH and a GOP Senate, you are just postponing the inevitable.

Meh, people will want it, but the GOP establishment might either return Super Delgates to control it or people will vote it in, the world ends, and I laugh on a pile of corposes.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

TyrantWD posted:

Trumpism is going to be back in 2020, just under someone who is less of an idiot. The GOP losing the Supreme Court is probably the only thing that will force some change as a bunch of their pet issues will no longer be on the table. With Hillary in the WH and a GOP Senate, you are just postponing the inevitable.

What is your proposed solution?

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe

Inferior Third Season posted:

Yeah, this is the thing people don't seem to get. This election only has one thing at stake: the Supreme Court.

JFC. You get four years of internal and foreign policy by the candidate who wins. Supreme court rulings not that loving important if all arable land is radioactive waste.

Tricky D
Apr 1, 2005

I love um!
I'd still say that having a Dem president is preferable to having GoP control of all three branches. Sure the SCOTUS can get shittier if we lose RBG and can't replace her, but you still got to mitigate your losses as best as possible.

EDIT: I'd also like to point out that the current demographic situation for the GoP makes the likely hood of them winning any future presidential elections pretty loving grim unless they can manage the fabled 'hispanic outreach.'

Tricky D fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Nov 2, 2016

twistedmentat
Nov 21, 2003

Its my party
and I'll die if
I want to
So way back in the Oct thread there was a discussion of Prohibition and there was one thing forgotten, the Womens Christian Temperance League was insturmental in getting Prohibition in the minds of Americans, but it was the Anti-Saloon League that made Prohibition happen. They took the single issue of banning booze and pushed it through to get it passed. Mostly though the leadership of Wayne Wheeler the ASL got congressmen who were from rural and southern areas on their side, either by appealing to their morality or straight up threatening their positions. They were very much like the Tea Party of their day, and honestly, I feel like the ASL is the model that all future single issue right wing groups have modeled themselves off of.

Anyways, I work a grocery store so I see all the tabloids and holy poo poo the Enquirer is hilarious. It's been nothing but the crazies anti-hillary stuff for ages. It's all "Hillary's secret kill list!' "Hillary's personal Hitman tells all!" "Trump tape faked!: We show the evidence!" "Inside how HIllary is faking the polls to say she's winning" "Emails prove Hillary Did Benghazi/9/11/Pearl Harbour/Lusitania/Shot Huey Long" and then "12 ways Trump will fix America!" "Trump already has a plan to defeat ISIS!" "100 people Trump will find and arrest to end BLM riots!" and so on.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Pakled posted:

Accelerationism is not the answer. Just ask a typical Muslim or hispanic or African-American whether they'd rather have 4 years of Trump or 4 years of Hillary with a red Senate.

And what happens to them in 2020 when you have a President Hillary whose only record involves countless investigations, and the GOP nominee is not setting themselves on fire every other morning?

Hillary has it relatively easy with a lot of the GOP donor network, including the Kochs, sitting this election out. That's going to be the case in 4 years.

Fitzy Fitz
May 14, 2005




Inferior Third Season posted:

Yeah, this is the thing people don't seem to get. This election only has one thing at stake: the Supreme Court. And for the Democrats, this means needing both the presidency and the Senate. The presidency alone does nothing, and it is difficult to see 2020 going much better for Hillary than this round after four years of investigations and impeachments and not being able to achieve anything on her agenda.

EDIT: This is not to say that I agree with accelerationism, but I think people are underestimating how terrible it will be if Hillary wins but doesn't get the Senate.

I get what you mean, but I'm not going to call "keeping a Republican out of the presidency" nothing.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html


ok who the gently caress sees the GOP systematically trying to cut off their access to government and even considers rewarding their presidential nominee with their vote (this is specifically in the county in NC where ~94% of the early voting locations were closed because the GOP decided it had too many black people democrats in it)

GOD DAMMIT

She took E-mails from that server and turned them over to the State Department! ARGHGGHGHGHGHHHH

i really, really wish the E-mails hadn't been deleted

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.
hey guys if you are still being all arzy think about this

The cubs guys

the cubs

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Would you like to make a prediction, rear end in a top hat?

A prediction of what? Nothing that I said is meant to be a statement on the final result of the election.

It's stating the obvious. People here repeatedly post about hoping for the mythical meltdown or Trump tape that will be the final nail in the coffin. And for what? It's dumb.

But do go on, post about the lawsuit alleging he raped a underage girl, or those tweets about him being taped at a Russian orgy, it's going to destroy his campaign!!!!!

Banana Man
Oct 2, 2015

mm time 2 gargle piss and shit
Should I start arzying yet the polls are looking slightly better for trump

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

theflyingorc posted:

GOD DAMMIT

She took E-mails from that server and turned them over to the State Department! ARGHGGHGHGHGHHHH

i really, really wish the E-mails hadn't been deleted

Even if they hadn't been there'd be something else.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

porfiria posted:

Did he simply include a higher "uncertainty" factor than everyone else?
More or less, yes. He factors in catastrophic polling errors a lot more than the others.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Inferior Third Season posted:

Yeah, this is the thing people don't seem to get. This election only has one thing at stake: the Supreme Court. And for the Democrats, this means needing both the presidency and the Senate.

It's unlikely that McConnell is going to be able to keep his party 100% in sufficient lockstep to not vote on a SCOTUS nominee for four whole years.

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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

TyrantWD posted:

And what happens to them in 2020 when you have a President Hillary whose only record involves countless investigations, and the GOP nominee is not setting themselves on fire every other morning?

She wins reelection because the GOP is fundamentally incapable of fielding a Presidential candidate.

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