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Agean90 posted:Yeah this election is a great example of just how random poo poo is. A far right wing politician getting the nomination based on a populist ideology that panders to xenophobic whites? Predictable, a logical outcome of the gop's politics the last. A lot of it comes down to the fact that we don't know, and will never know, how contingent history is. Obviously, EVERYTHING isn't possible. Trump probably couldn't exist in 2012, and he certainly couldn't have before that. But it's very easy to imagine Mitt Romney deciding not the run in 2012 (one man making a choice), and then going for it in 2016. What happens then? Very difficult to say, I think.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:14
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:14
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want? Yeah, what if a cool collected businessman like Mitt Romney becomes the nominee????
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Nov 2, 2016 03:14
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Ogmius815 posted:Oh you had best have a source for this one friend. (Oh god please be true). Lawrence O'Donnell was interviewing someone from TargetSmart about their survey of early voters on MSNBC Poll is officially out tomorrow.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:14
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exploding mummy posted:the early polling results in Florida are suggesting that a third of Republican early vote is going to Clinton Citation on that?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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Lemming posted:Even if the Dems take the Senate, there's basically 0 chance they keep it in 2018 Doesn't even matter. If Clinton wins and Dems take the senate we get a reasonable justice to replace Scalia, and liberals to replace RBG and maybe Breyer if he's smart and Kennedy if he's unlucky.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want? Overly offensive is what they want dumbass
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want? Country begins the long, slow backslide into authoritarianism and fiscal conservatism, entire world hates us and we drag them all down with us
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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Lemming posted:Even if the Dems take the Senate, there's basically 0 chance they keep it in 2018
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want? The optimistic take is that these voters really want somebody as openly offensive as Trump, and that if a nominee comes along who starts speaking in coded language again, they'll be upset that he's politically correct and will stay home because nothing can compare to their orange messiah
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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If you are having trouble reading this thread without panicking, I invite you to play this on loop while reading the thread, it makes stomaching some of the more distasteful things that much more bearable. Plus, it's free~ http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1400011
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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The Insect Court posted:"Demographics" is the 'A Wizard Did It" of politics. No it isn't. It's the identification of voter trends among statistically distinct and identifiable portions of the population and extrapolating those trends across projected changes in population. Sure it's possible that the minorities will suddenly decide to break for the GoP in the coming years, but based on the proportions that currently vote Dem and without any reason to think that's going to change the mathematics are pretty solid.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:16
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exploding mummy posted:Lawrence O'Donnell was interviewing someone from TargetSmart about their survey of early voters on MSNBC I don;t believe it until I see the poll myself. Even then I won't be happy until I compare it to data about party line-crossers in previous elections.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:16
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:16
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Ogmius815 posted:Doesn't even matter. If Clinton wins and Dems take the senate we get a reasonable justice to replace Scalia, and liberals to replace RBG and maybe Breyer if he's smart and Kennedy if he's unlucky. But that doesn't mean it has to come in THIS time.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:17
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For what it's worth, this country absolutely loving hates Donald Trump. It's just that A. Hillary is also fairly despised and B. Partisanship is unbelievably strong.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:18
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Ogmius815 posted:I don;t believe it until I see the poll myself. Even then I won't be happy until I compare it to data about party line-crossers in previous elections. Last highest crossover amount was like 9% in 2012, if I recall. Here is the press release on the poll. https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
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Nov 2, 2016 03:18
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TyrantWD posted:Again, I don't support Trump, and was backing Hillary from the start. Most of you guys are overlooking the fact that Trump isn't the problem. Trump voters are the problem. What is the solution when someone who is not so overly offensive comes along and gives those voters what they want? They'd vote against him.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:18
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FAUXTON posted:Accelerationism is just downmarket affluenza, white kids being so sheltered from the consequences of their actions that they believe economic crashes and layoffs are just abstract things that happen to other people. Lol if you don't think those things aren't going to happen under Hillary. The GOP will run a wet noodle in 2020 and beat Hillary.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:18
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Nessus posted:Eventually, there will be another Republican or, I don't know, KKK president; eventually, darkness will come, as it has in its time. Trump isn't just a republican though. Compare him to Mitt Romney. Trump is so un-American he actually makes me sick.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:18
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quote:As of the morning of November 1st, 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida. This is pretty massive if accurate, woah.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:19
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Nov 2, 2016 03:19
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DarkstarIV posted:Last highest crossover amount was like 9% in 2012, if I recall. Here is the press release on the poll. Is there any data on crossover voters among early voters? I bet that's too specific a point to have data on right now but maybe it exists I don't know.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:20
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:I have to believe that Hillary Clinton will treat midterms (both of them, fuckers) like the war they should be treated as. Hillary will treat every day dealing with congress like she was invading Libya.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:20
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Lemming posted:Even if the Dems take the Senate, there's basically 0 chance they keep it in 2018 This is actually fine, because it at least gives Clinton a shot at filling Scalia's vacancy.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:20
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im gay posted:Lol if you don't think those things aren't going to happen under Hillary. The GOP will run a wet noodle in 2020 and beat Hillary. Assumes their base will vote for him. GOP primaries are circuses and the biggest clown escapes alive.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:21
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Nessus posted:Eventually, there will be another Republican or, I don't know, KKK president; eventually, darkness will come, as it has in its time. Sons of Roosevelt, of Kennedy! I see in your words the same arzying that would take the heart of me. An election may come when the courage of liberals fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this election! An hour of Racists and Sexists when the age of Obama comes crashing down, but it is not this day! THIS DAY WE VOTE!
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Nov 2, 2016 03:21
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Ogmius815 posted:Trump isn't just a republican though. Compare him to Mitt Romney. Trump is so un-American he actually makes me sick. Trump is literally the republican base now. You're not wrong about how unamerican Trump is or how sick he makes us, but his supporters are the republican base now.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:22
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Ogmius815 posted:Is there any data on crossover voters among early voters? I bet that's too specific a point to have data on right now but maybe it exists I don't know. All of the data is being released tomorrow, apparently. Please look forward to it.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:23
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If you're worried about 2018, it's two years away. We could change American politics in that time. If you're a bad enough dude to save the president.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:24
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We've got a massive shortage of federal judges too, largely thanks to Republicans wanting to limit the number of Obama appointees. Even just two years of a Democratically controlled Senate would be a godsend.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:24
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wait wtf is the FBI doing now?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:26
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A Winner is Jew posted:Trump is literally the republican base now. It's probably true that Trumpenstaffel are the most significant GOP voting bloc, but again I'd point out his massive negative numbers. You don't get to -21 without freaking out a lot of non Democrats. Many of those people are pulling the lever for Trump anyway, but I'm not sure they'll continue to do so into the future (for future Trumps I mean).
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Nov 2, 2016 03:25
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Lemming posted:People who vote Republican reward Republicans for being incredibly huge shitheads, and if they do it far enough away from an election (ie more than 1 week away), everyone else forgets they ever did anything. See how not confirming Garland has had zero negative repercussions for any Republicans. Remember when some people thought that blocking Garland would actually hurt the GOP? 
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Nov 2, 2016 03:26
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You're all a bunch of loving babies. Quit your Arzying.  me for Hillary, maybe some others will follow.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:26
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Endorph posted:Democrats still win. Because of changing demographics?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:27
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Lemming posted:Even if the Dems take the Senate, there's basically 0 chance they keep it in 2018 Yeah, if the Dems take the Senate and the old liberal lions on the court are smart, they have a 2 year window to retire. Hillary also has 2 years to maybe try to get any legislation or reforms passed. The odds that the Dems lose the Senate in 2018 are not 100%, but they are really drat high.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:27
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Levitate posted:wait wtf is the FBI doing now? No one really knows what's going on at the FBI. Rumors suggest that there is serious dissension over Comey's letter and how certain investigations have been and/or are being handled.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:27
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gently caress MY STATE DO NOT SCREW UP THE SENATE!!!  Indianapolis Star posted:Former Sen. Evan Bayh’s once healthy lead in the race for his old Senate seat has evaporated, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday showing Bayh in a dead heat with GOP Rep. Todd Young. Only nugget of good coming from this. quote:In the gubernatorial contest, Gregg’s lead over Holcomb narrowed since the 12 percentage point margin in the last Monmouth poll. But Gregg still leads Holcomb 48 percent to 42 percent. Libertarian Rex Bell has 4 percent. FULL ON  MODE ACTIVE TILL ELECTION NOW!
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Nov 2, 2016 03:27
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:You're all a bunch of loving babies. Quit your Arzying. You can toxx for Hilldog here.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:28
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